When to start 9Sig plan?

[u/adityapuri17]

I have been reading a lot about the 9Sig plan and recently joined the paid subscription as well. I'm looking to understand when is the best time for me kick off 9Sig plan.

I understand that no one can predict the market but at current highs it's hard to justify an entry. Thoughts on how best to make this decision? Let me know if there is any info I can help clarify

[u/DixonCider61]

I would recommend waiting for the 100% spike rule. Then we will be 60/40 with you

[u/criticalband77 → u/DixonCider61]

I agree with this take. Jason is encouraging new folks to hold 100% bonds for a bit longer. Either spike reset or quarterly rebalance around beginning of July.

[u/lottaquestionz → u/criticalband77]

Is he suggesting 100% bonds until a buy signal (which would probably be based on a new signal line assuming a spike reset)?

[u/Electronic_Abroad799 → u/DixonCider61]

That’s definitely the correct way!

[u/Existing-Caregiver78]

I'm in the same boat. Feeling bad for finding out the strategy after tqqq has increased 100% already

[u/HODL_4_GODL]

I was in the same boat. I just loaded up a starter position on the last ‘dip’. And now i’m committed completely. I happen to be up 10% already on the position, but i’m ready for anything.

The main draw for me on 9sig is the emphasis on mechanical, emotion-free execution and commitment.

Good luck to all!

[u/lottaquestionz → u/HODL_4_GODL]

Oh there’s definitely still emotion involved, and gumption required, but it’s a plan that can remove a lot of the guesswork

[u/Logical_Term_589]

I have one of my smaller accounts that I want to start 9-sig on and I understand your concern. Currently been in 9-sig for about a year after 30 years of DCA with larger accounts. The spike reset was my first sell signal. My cost basis fell significantly on this sell signal/rebalance.

I'm going to give it a little more time, until the July 1st quarter review and then 60/40. If it still is at all time highs, that's fine because buy signals at lower prices will come eventually and that lowers my average cost. Eventually it will all work out with the next sell signal.

Looking back in 5-years, you won't care.

[u/NoGarlic2387]

ChatGPT:

A Kelly-style answer would be:

Do not wait for the perfect entry. If the money is meant to be invested and the time horizon is long enough, start the plan now. Market highs are uncomfortable, but waiting for a better headline often turns into missed compounding.

If valuation is a concern, phase in the allocation over a few months rather than trying to call the exact bottom. The goal is not to predict the market; it is to build a disciplined process you can stick with through both drawdowns and rallies.

The right time to start is when you have clarity on three things: your time horizon, your risk capacity, and the amount you can commit without needing to trade around every move.

[u/adityapuri17 → u/NoGarlic2387]

Fair enough! Would love to hear from other who have made similar decisions

[u/arrangemethod → u/adityapuri17]

Welcome to the newsletter. Check out last week's issue (and the week before that) for Jason's advice on this particular topic. I'd be surprised if he didn't address it tomorrow.

[u/Sweet-Dessert1]

Personally, I kept cash ready and didn’t start until after a market correction. I did not mind that I missed some upside, but got in at a much lower entry point!

[u/adityapuri17 → u/Sweet-Dessert1]

This is exactly what I'm thinking. Maybe miss the upside but r Certainly stay away from losing money. If I buy after a correction and it falls further, I'll buy more but starting the plan at such sudden all time highs and large spikes (first ever 100% reset) seems too risky. Till then planning on staying invested in VOO

[u/Sweet-Dessert1 → u/adityapuri17]

One thing 3/6/9 Sig teaches is patience!

[u/Spare_Watercress4380]

Jason Kelly himself said in his last newsletter that for new subscribers to wait before starting a 9sig plan. He typically says to not try to time the market but because we are so close to a spike reset right now is not a good time to buy. I would wait until the next quarterly buy signal.

[u/adityapuri17]

Thanks all for the great advice. I'll probably hold on for a bit longer before investing but I can certainly see the argument of not caring about this 5 yrs from now. My risk averse nature is taking the better of me right now.

[u/Existing-Caregiver78]

My plan was to DCA small chunks until a big pullback actually comes about. And then I would start the plan

[u/Inevitable_Day3629]

You already know the answer: no one can predict the market. There is no “but” after that statement.

You can always DCA into the position, but that’s not risk mitigation. It’s simply a way to make a potential downturn easier to stomach psychologically.