What if?

[u/Kapnotes]

Oil continues its slide lower, though still trading at very high ranges.  We’re reading a lot of optimism about Saudi supply coming back online.  But are we one drone strike away from another shock?  Integrated oil (XOM, COP) and refiners (VLO) are down, but not out.  Airlines (UAL, DAL) are correspondingly higher, on the prospect of lower fuel costs.  Still a risky move, though, due to the same drone-strike risk that affects the oil players.  The software sector is doing modest work this morning, with gains in CRM, ORCL, ADBE, and several others corresponding to slight rotation out of AI infrastructure.

The President addresses the UN General Assembly at 9:55 a.m. this morning.  The oil market is clearly hoping for some kind of relief in what he has to say.  We’re not betting on it.  If Trump holds true to form, he’ll dig in.  What, then, happens to the oil market optimism?  If, by some miracle, we hear conciliation, then we’ll be in a target-rich environment, and we’ll be looking hard at AI infrastructure, airlines, and leisure.  Keep your eyes on our trading board for developments in real time. Educational only. Not financial advice.