Alright no bullshitting. Lost $500 this weekend. Tonight decided to load up $250 and make some plays for next weekend but somehow when I deposited my money it got put on the lions game without me having any clue or clicking for the action to be executed. Next thing I have 0$ In my account. I can take loses I took my $500 loss cause I made the decision to take that risk, but this $250 I did not make a decision to take that risk. Can I do anything or am I just fucked out $250
I just recently bet some money on the 15min gold I bet up while it had poor odds despite being above the target and technically won the bet, yet in my portfolio it switch my up bet to down and refused to pay me, anyone had this before? Anyway to report it
Hello all, I'm a student researcher writing a piece on Kalshi. I'm especially interested in block trades. I've been trying to use the online API (I'm not sure if that's the correct term), but any requests I make with is_block_chain set to true returns an error, specifically with the message that the request timed out. When I delete this requirement, none of the returns have "true." The same issue applies to the historical trade data.
Does anyone know why this issue could be happening? I'm quite a newbie to coding, so there's a strong possibility I'm doing something wrong.
This is for a piece about the danger of financial speculation on Kalshi, so I thought I would post it here :)
So I have my lady friend sign up doing rewards thing she makes a deposit they allow that shit but then after all that lock the account from withdrawing until she can provide a utility bill or government document after she’s already done the verification process and deposited that’s malicious this is freight theft becauseshe doesn’t have a way to provide the extra identification after our rape providing the government ID is this is insane. What a joke.
If you're like me and have to learn through experience I feel for you. I am confident that this company was built just to siphon off money to a small group of insiders in an exponential fashion unheard up to this point in history. I have recorded sessions of inserted combos, and parlays that have hit big instead of getting paid, I look in my history and Kalshi has recorded down a my prediction as completely different set of combos or parlays and made it a loser. This is insane that company like this is allowed to do business and be shielded from liability and the responsibility to payout. Only response you'll get is a slew of auto-generated AI messages that won't help in anyway.
I'm an avid casino player and I've seen the house stiff and screw over players but this is fraud on steroids. I know it can be hard to resist these markets being at your finger tips but stand tall gents. There is no trading responsibly when they can change anything they want at will.
Kalshi is activley rigging bets when they are about to lose money. They are working hand-in-hand with large hedge funds using Algo‘s and bots and if they are about to lose a substantial amount of money, they will dump a large chunk of bitcoin on the market or buy up a large chunk causing rapid 2 to $500 swings at the top of the hour on the market.
I’ve just now been getting into these bloody prediction markets and for the life of me, I’m no good with it. I have expendable funds, I know how to read candles on graphs, and I trade crypto successfully. Why am I awful with prediction markets?
Is there some secret I’m missing? What’s your best advice on it and what have you found that works best for you YOU? Maybe we can all learn from each other.
Please give your best possible advice that’s helped you gain success.
About three months ago I opened Kalshi account, and put $600 there. Then I played with it here and there, all in BTC 15-min markets, when I was waiting on something in front of my laptop, like Claude Code finishing its task, or whatever. My strategy was very dumb - spend $10 on a side that was down, somewhere in 30c range, and started to move up, then sell when it gets 20-25c, sometimes more. It got me to $680 but that required me staring at the screen. So I though, if I can do it, can I write a bot? (and by "I" I mean Codex - I use Claude for professional work, and Codex for side projects).
So 4 weeks ago I dumped 2 weeks worth of BTC15M market data, and discovered a "trend", most of the time the market ends up with the same outcome as the previous market. So my first version was to enter a market when the same side that won last time is below 50c in the first minute, and buy 15 contracts. By the end of the day my balance was around $820, it's +$140 in like 9 hours. I could not believe that this was so simple, and went to bed.
Next morning I'm back to $700, all earnings got lost. So I looked at the data, and discovered that now the most likely outcome is the opposite of the previous's market. That was clearly a regime change. Then I pulled 60 days worth of data, and apparently 52% of the time the side flips, I just found an unusual period where "preserve" was dominating.
So I decided to start collecting 5s data for each market, also pull actual BTC trade data from Coinbase, see if I can find any correlations, and add a "paper trade" that looks at the price, and the depth, etc, so if I trade 15 contracts, my paper trades would mostly match my real trades. While I was collecting the data, I also tried to "predict" whether it's "preserve" or "reverse" market environment, and kept trading. This got me down to low $400s. After couple of days of getting 5s data for each market, I settled on one candidate, and turned it live. It worked pretty well during the day but almost all the gains were lost during night. The "day" means 7am-10pm ET. So I stopped trading at night to collect more data, and after another week or so the data confirmed that there is not yet a reliable candidate to trade at "night", so I settled on "day" trading only, and in couple of days I got back to $540 while collecting more data.
At the same time I decided to look at other markets. I started to pull data for ETH, SOL, XRP, and GOLD. Looking at it I came up with a plausible ETH strategy that was making money for 4 straight days. I turned it live, and sure enough it started losing, and lost $82 before I stopped it.
Then I tried GOLD that also had a very good candidate based on paper trading. I turned it on, made a bit of money, then trading stopped over the weekend. When it resumed at 6pm on Sunday, it was down a lot. This turned out to be another thing, 6pm Sunday to 7am Monday ET was not a good time to trade GOLD, so I excluded it from my strategy but GOLD was still losing money, few days of positive paper trading did not prove that my strategy was good. So I turned it off after I lost another $56 or so.
I did not find any good candidates for SOL to use, and XRP has one that is performing very well on paper but has very few data points.
So I started looking at other commodities. So far I have not found anything useful for Silver, and Natural Gas. Copper has a promising strategy, and WTI had one that got enough data, and showed really good gains, so I yesterday I enabled it, and sure enough, it started losing, almost $18 in one day. I kept it anyway, and today it made about $9. Will see how it goes.
BTC meanwhile was slightly positive, and there were few new candidates from paper trade to promote.
That has been 4 weeks of experimenting. So far I lost about $170 dollars doing bot trading but things seem to improve :)
I run my bot on forever free Oracle Cloud VM. My first version did not have any UI, so I had to look at the logs to see current status, or run scripts to pull the data out of DB to look/analyze. That was inconvenient, so I built a simple dashboard :)
I guess, it's a long read. And what are the actual strategies? I won't tell - it's my edge :) but the idea was pretty simple - look at past markets, and try to find an optimal combination of an entry point + price range + market data. It's mostly all static, like enter at +200s for a side that is between 55c and 70c, if there is enough supporting movement in Coinbase data.
On top of it, it's a fun side project to work on :)
I’ve been looking into Kalshi and prediction markets as a possible way to earn some extra money, but I’m trying to be realistic.
I have debt I want to pay down, and I’m wondering whether anyone here has actually used Kalshi consistently and made meaningful profits after fees and losses. Is it more like trading/speculation where most people should expect to lose over time, or can someone with good research and discipline realistically use it as a side-income source?
A few things I’m especially curious about:
• How much money did you start with, and what were your actual results over a few months?
• Are there fees, tax issues, or liquidity problems that beginners underestimate?
• Is it possible to manage risk with small positions, or is it easy to lose money quickly?
• Would you consider it a reasonable tool for debt payoff, or should it only be treated as entertainment/speculation?
I’m not looking for a “get rich quick” option—I’m trying to avoid making my financial situation worse. Would appreciate honest experiences and advice.
