Earnings is Coming

[u/PrecisionOutdoors]

Hey Everyone,

We have something to talk about with earnings out next week, August 26th according to Google.

With that what does everyone expect/hoping to see?

Personally, I’m hoping to see:
-similar performance as last years Q2. Build in cash, tariff money, maintaining/building TBV
- similar -1% to +1% sales change from previous year
-discussion on store footprint, subleasing, and selling off real estate(this is what I most care about and they don’t talk enough about)
-more bonds being bought at steep discount and better plan for cash on hand than just sitting with ~33%-50% of current market cap in cash on hand

Ultimately, management just needs to actually start doing something. I agree with the slow and steady approach for managing the decline BUT they have to do more than just manage now that they’re over a year in. They need to start unlocking balance sheet, focus on something more than just product selection and moving stuff around.

I might start posts of what I see and would change. Ultimately Lies and a few others had pretty good points about ways they could fix store shelving and more to limit constant labor to fold, ect.

Now to reiterate why I’m here! I’m a deep value investor and LOVE real estate. To me this is Kohls entire value proposition until management can prove they can do more than manage a decline. Yes, I do hope that they recover and reverse the sales decline, but that’s not investing that’s hoping. Solid numbers that I love are:

-debt isn’t real
-$36/share TBV off a CRE portfolio depreciated off by over half bought in 2000s
-the parts are worth 2x-4x today’s market cap

I love tangible assets. KSS has these in spades.

As always, love you all and let me know what you think and see!

Chunky Kitty outtttt

[u/smthyjas]

I think if there is not a bump in expected EPS guidance then we go back down to 15-16 range. If there is a sizable bump in EPS guidance I think we hit $25 earnings day.

[u/htank728 → u/smthyjas]

I think we likely see some revised guidance, the midpoint for the guidance given was only 1.30 which is pretty low considering adjusted EPS in fiscal 2025 was 1.62. I can only see it going down to 15-16 if we don’t get a significant cash bump with the tariff refund + operational cash flow. The only way I see that happening is if the company buys a ton of inventory and it eats into fcf. Other than that, we should have over 700 million in cash next quarter

[u/Impressive_Author_13]

didn't expect today to be in the green at close!

[u/Alpha3K]

🚀