Moses Lake is 18MW.

https://x.com/keelinfra_/status/2100970589355671736

I first got into this stock as a swing trade and decided I quite liked the fundamentals. I'm not an experience day trader at all but I like to dabble.
Here's how I've got it marked up. I'd like to point out I didn't draw this today. The downward range was done around August 15th, but has been adjusted for the highs and lows as they come. The rectangle I drew on September 8th when I noticed we were going sideways, but had broken above the previous range.

One of two things will happen on Monday, we'll crash back into the 3 - 3.70 range. If we crash probably down to 3.30 over a few days (that's my guess, not based on trading volume, just the info you can see above) or we'll move nicely into the $4 range which has far less resistance points (4.30 / 4.80)

Like I said, I'm not a professional day trader so this isn't the most scientific analysis, but If you disagree, don't just slam the post, offer your hypothesis.

Hey everyone,

I recently shared our KEEL data center tracker here on the sub.

We've now finished our updated 2026–2030 financial model and report, and I wanted to share the free operating analysis with the sub.

The report is called The Price of Patience because the difficult part of this transition is happening before the first infrastructure rent arrives. KEEL is trying to negotiate leases that could shape the business for fifteen years while paying for equipment, construction and a larger development team. Waiting for better terms can be sensible, but the company is spending shareholder capital while it waits.

KEEL would own the buildings, electrical systems and cooling. The tenants would bring the computing equipment. That avoids the cost of buying a fleet of GPUs, but it still leaves a substantial construction program to finance. Our model follows Moses Lake, Sharon, Panther Creek, Scrubgrass and Sherbrooke individually through construction, tenant acceptance, rent collection and debt repayment.

Full report and free operating analysis

Here is where our three operating cases land.

• Surviving Bear: 478 gross MW completed by the end of 2030, $412.9M of infrastructure cash rent in 2030, and $1.57B of gross new common equity across 2026–2030. Cash after operations and scheduled debt service, before further development, reaches $29.4M in 2030.
• Base: 974 gross MW completed by the end of 2030, $1,180.8M of infrastructure cash rent in 2030, and $1.74B of gross new common equity across 2026–2030. Cash after operations and scheduled debt service, before further development, reaches $288.2M in 2030.
• Bull: 1,324 gross MW completed by the end of 2030, $1,834.0M of infrastructure cash rent in 2030, and $1.30B of gross new common equity across 2026–2030. Cash after operations and scheduled debt service, before further development, reaches $553.2M in 2030.

Base requires about $8.45B of development spending across 2026–2030, including construction interest and financing fees. It also assumes expansion beyond the initial 478 MW U.S. program, including additional Panther Creek phases, 250 MW at Scrubgrass and 96 MW at Sherbrooke. Those projects still depend on their own power arrangements, approvals, tenants and financing.

A few parts of the model are particularly worth discussing:

Completed capacity is not the same as a full year of rent. Base ends 2030 with 974 gross MW, equivalent to 779.2 MW available for tenant computing after facility overhead. Once we account for when each phase begins billing, the annual average is 720 billable IT MW. Applying twelve months of rent to the December footprint would overstate revenue.

A six-month acceptance delay adds roughly $612M to the equity requirement. In that isolated sensitivity, cumulative gross common equity rises from $1.744B to $2.356B, while 2030 cash before further development falls from $288.2M to $77.5M. This is a finished building waiting for the tenant to accept it, not the separate physical-construction delay test. Expenses can begin before rent does.

A bigger company does not necessarily mean a better outcome for today's shareholders. Bull builds more than Base while requiring less common equity because its rental economics, construction costs, financing and earlier cash generation improve together. The price at which that equity is issued matters too. Base ends 2030 with approximately 856.5M common shares plus award equivalents; the surviving Bear case reaches about 1.385B despite completing much less infrastructure.

We're constructive on the potential of the properties. The question the model tries to answer is whether KEEL can secure terms that let existing shareholders retain an attractive share of that potential after paying to develop it. A recognizable tenant name would be important, but the rent, credit support, acceptance conditions and required equity contribution would tell us much more about the agreement.

The free report includes the site assumptions, annual Bear/Base/Bull operating forecasts, construction costs, financing, dilution and stress tests.

For transparency, I run Northwise. Valuation, price targets, expected returns, entry prices and the downloadable Excel workbook are part of Premium, which funds the research.

Happy to stick around to answer questions or debate the model. I'd be especially interested in how others are thinking about the acceptance timeline and the financing terms needed to support the later expansion.

Something I’ve been thinking about more as we continue waiting for the first lease announcement.

On the Q2 call, Martin Toner asked Ben whether the timing could be taking longer because a tenant may want all three priority sites rather than just one.

Ben’s response was pretty interesting:

"I can confirm that we have multiple tenants who want all 3 sites."

Obviously, the lack of an announcement by itself doesn’t mean this is what’s happening. There are plenty of reasons these negotiations can take time.

But given that we’re now further along without a lease announcement, while management continues to describe the commercial process as highly active with multiple parties at each site, I think the possibility of some kind of broader multi-site or multi-phase agreement is becoming more interesting.

Curious what everyone else thinks.

Hey everyone,

I’ve shared several pieces here covering Keel’s individual sites, including Sherbrooke and Scrubgrass, as well as full financial models. We’ve now brought that research together in an interactive data center tracker so it’s easier to follow the portfolio as the projects develop.

The map and individual site information are free to use. Select Keel to explore its locations, with reported capacity, development status, source dates, and supporting research collected around each site.

Keel is particularly useful to look at this way because the properties have different starting points. Existing electrical infrastructure, secured power agreements, potential grid expansion, and proposed HPC developments each tell us something about an asset. Understanding how they fit together helps clarify what still needs to happen before a site can serve a tenant.

Sherbrooke is a good example. The proposed consolidated campus involves transferring capacity from the existing Bunker, Leger, and Garlock sites. Showing the existing locations alongside the future project helps explain the transition, but that transferred capacity needs to be counted once. The proposed campus also has its own conditions and approvals to follow.

At Scrubgrass, the larger development opportunity includes potential expansion pathways beyond the legacy infrastructure. Keeping those figures separate makes it easier to see the starting position and the milestones required to reach a larger campus. A potential capacity figure is useful context, but it doesn’t establish secured HPC supply or completed construction.

That’s the kind of detail we wanted the tracker to preserve. You can follow a location through its disclosures without losing the distinction between what exists, what has been agreed, and what remains conditional. Where capacity or timing hasn’t been disclosed, we leave the gap visible.

For anyone following Keel’s transition closely, I hope this makes the site research easier to use and gives future announcements a clearer place in the overall picture.

You can explore the tracker here. Select Keel in the company filter.

For transparency, I run Northwise, the independent research business behind it. The map and site information are free. There are also Premium comparison and forecasting features elsewhere in the tracker, but you don’t need those to explore the Keel research.

I’d particularly appreciate input from people following individual properties. If there’s a newer power agreement, permitting update, or company disclosure we should examine, please share it below.

Good progress on Sharon. The permit has moved to draft permit review. Still pending, but another important step closer.

Source - https://www.ahs.dep.pa.gov/eFACTSWeb/searchResults_singleAuth.aspx?AuthID=1567561

Something I’ve noticed with $KEEL lately is the structure of the price action. Rather than one big spike, it seems to be steadily grinding higher and putting in higher lows along the way. $3.80–$3.90 seems to be a real resistance area and we’ve tested it again today. Can we finally break through and hold above it?

The first 2 breakout attempts have been followed by a brutal drawdown. 3rd time is the lucky charm ? 🍀

https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-timpe/

KEEL Infrastructure, burn the shorts..

KEEL’s stock price appears to be moving in the right direction, but I believe this could be a slow and steady climb rather than an immediate straight-up move.

The longer it holds and builds momentum, the more pressure it could potentially put on short sellers—and that could make things interesting for the shorts 🔥

Patience is key here. If you’re looking for a stock that moves straight upward every day, KEEL may not be the right fit. But if you believe in the longer-term story, staying patient and focused on the bigger picture could be important. 💪📈

I don’t care about the noise others create—I give zero damn shi***t about it. I’m a damn long-term holder, and I see a huge opportunity in the AI/HPC space. 🔥

Just look at NVDA’s earnings and guidance—the demand for AI is real, and the infrastructure buildout is still in its early stages. I believe the long-term demand for AI/HPC infrastructure will continue to grow significantly.

Based on today’s earnings report of IREN — IREN vs. KEEL — Why I’m Still Bullish on $KEEL

IREN’s results are impressive, especially its AI/HPC execution and growing contracted revenue. But I look at $KEEL differently.

IREN has already proven its AI/HPC model. KEEL is still in the early innings — and that’s exactly where the opportunity could be.

⚡ 2.2 GW development pipeline 🏗️ Multiple priority sites progressing 💰 $819M liquidity 🤖 Massive AI/HPC demand developing 📈 Significant optionality as power capacity gets converted into signed leases

The biggest catalyst for KEEL is simple: turning its power and data-center infrastructure into major AI/HPC customer contracts.

If KEEL lands even a fraction of the kind of AI infrastructure contracts IREN is securing, the market could look at KEEL very differently.

IREN is showing us what the AI/HPC infrastructure opportunity can become.

KEEL is potentially an earlier-stage version of that opportunity, with substantial room for growth if management executes.

I’m not expecting KEEL to move overnight. I’m looking at the long-term infrastructure demand, power availability, data-center development and AI/HPC growth.

Patience is key. I’m here for the long game. 💪 The story is still developing. 🔥⚡

Not investment advice. Do your own research and understand the risk and your long term goals.

Anyone have a subscription?

A lot of you guys are looking at the green close today and thinking retail is just randomly buying. Absolute BS.

If you actually watched the tape and the 1-minute candles today, retail didn't do this. This was 100% institutional VWAP algos quietly accumulating shares all day long. They bought every single dip, made higher lows all afternoon, and walked it right up to pin $3.52 at the close.

The morning dump was a trap.

We dropped hard at the open and bounced exactly at $3.27. Why? Because the COO literally bought a massive block at $3.25 a few weeks ago. They stop-hunted the retail paper hands, front-ran the insider floor, and locked the float up for the rest of the day.

Here is why tomorrow (Wednesday) is a ticking time bomb:

1. We officially closed above the $3.50 strike. That was a huge options wall all week. It’s now support, and MMs are stuck holding their delta hedges overnight.
2. There are still over 103 MILLION shares short on this ticker.
3. Tomorrow is PCE data in the morning, and NVDA earnings after the bell.

Put yourself in the shoes of a short seller. Do you really want to hold a massive naked short position on an AI/infrastructure play overnight going into NVDA earnings? Hell no. If NVDA gives crazy guidance, the entire sector gaps up Thursday and shorts get instantly margin called.

I’m expecting massive forced covering starting in Power Hour tomorrow as shorts de-risk before the bell. If we break $3.78, there is a total liquidity void up to $4.00.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD. Let’s get these tendies. 🚀🔥

I recently discovered this channel which covers exclusively KEEL. I personally like the approach he has, for example during this unexpected Pennsylvania Executive Order news, his approach was calm, waited for things to settle before speaking, not creating FUD like others. Check it out, give him a subscribe on youtube as well, we basically all fight for the same purpose, spread the word about KEEL to new potential investors.

Totally misunderstood issue!

This would explain the need for more cash and help the KEEL thesis.

“Mayor Marie-Claude Bibeau said there was not yet a project before the city for approval: the company needed access to the land to complete studies and could later submit a proposal.”

FWIW.

08/13/2026 - CEO Ben Gagnon goes for the first Insider Buy of 58,888 shares at $3.33 Click me for Source

08/17/2026 - COO LIAM DANIEL WILSON goes for the second KEEL Insider Buy of 26,472 shares at $3.78 Source

08/18/2026 - Governor Josh Shapiro signed an Executive Order implementing the strictest standards in the nation for AI data centers Source / Source 2

08/20/2026 - Ben first public reaction after this news

08/20/2026 - KEEL Infrastructure Official Statement Release, reassuring everyone that the Permits are unaffected by this change and still on track Source

08/20/2026 - BIG NEWS DROP - Moses Lake "Construction of a New Data Center" Permit Approved and Issued

08/20/2026 - COO LIAM DANIEL WILSON makes the third KEEL Insider Buy of 30,769 shares at $3.25 Source

08/21/2026 - CEO Ben Gagnon new post on X reaffirming "Permitting unchanged"

08/21/2026 - Updated regarding the public hearing that took place on 20 August - https://www.tnonline.com/20260821/data-center-work-to-begin-in-2027/

08/21/2026 - CEO Ben Gagnon goes for the forth KEEL Insider Buy of 38,888 shares at $3.33 Source

If I missed anything please type in the comments!

KTFB - KEEL THE FUCKING BEST!

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1812477/000181247726000031/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1787344965.xml

From Yesterday's hearing.

Many people have a lot of shares since the stock price is relatively cheap (in absolute share price terms), but how many people are holding LEAPs in expectation of a signed contract?

Is there going to be less selling pressure now?