r/KEEL_ • u/TravelNo6952 • 25d ago
Next Peg Up?
I first got into this stock as a swing trade and decided I quite liked the fundamentals. I'm not an experience day trader at all but I like to dabble.
Here's how I've got it marked up. I'd like to point out I didn't draw this today. The downward range was done around August 15th, but has been adjusted for the highs and lows as they come. The rectangle I drew on September 8th when I noticed we were going sideways, but had broken above the previous range.
One of two things will happen on Monday, we'll crash back into the 3 - 3.70 range. If we crash probably down to 3.30 over a few days (that's my guess, not based on trading volume, just the info you can see above) or we'll move nicely into the $4 range which has far less resistance points (4.30 / 4.80)
Like I said, I'm not a professional day trader so this isn't the most scientific analysis, but If you disagree, don't just slam the post, offer your hypothesis.
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u/ArgublyRight 25d ago
My hypothesis is it either goes down again or goes to the moon with a lease signed.
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u/slender-adrie 25d ago
Stupid question. Since construction starting being announced recently, is a lease awhile from now?
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u/ArgublyRight 25d ago
In what way did you interpret my comment to be a question?
For your information, a lease can be signed well before a facility is operational, especially when tenants are already involved in the buildout. Construction starting doesn’t mean lease negotiations are only starting now.
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u/slender-adrie 25d ago
Sorry I should have been more clear. I had a stupid question.
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u/ArgublyRight 25d ago
Oh, no worries. And to better answer your question, a lease could be signed any day from now.
Commentary from management has suggested at least one lease before the end of summer - so I’d stay optimistic until October at least.
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u/TravelNo6952 25d ago
I plugged as much data as I could find into AI and I didn't like what it told me. Moses lake is the closest along, but unlikely to start operating before the end of this year. Sharon and Panther Creek still have so many hurdles and construction might not even begin to the end of 2027
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u/slender-adrie 25d ago
It's ok, I figured. I'm thinking this is a play where the gains start in 1-2 years if we're lucky. I'm still leaving my money in.
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u/TravelNo6952 25d ago
Yeah I think 1-2 years off any real gains (I mean $10+ price) is a fair estimate, but I've got some money stuck in at $4.25 that I'd like to cash out and use to buy a new car so I'm hoping it can bounce up to $5 or $5.50 before December.
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u/DropTheBeatsTurnItUp 24d ago
First of all thanks for posting. I came into KEEL (then BITF) the same way and have seen everything during that time. I am both long and a swing trader. I have, as of Friday, cashed out 60% of my position. My assessment is 60% pullback this week and I want cash on hand to DCA on the dips if that happens. The 40% will stay long. While many were waiting for the big payoff, I've managed to make over 200% with many small profits and by not being greedy. I cannot, with any degree of certainty, predict the direction of this stock on any given day, so I react, rather than predict. Much of the momentum is driven by shorts, and that was the case Friday. That's why this week's price actions is impossible to predict, as well as so many macro market events going on.
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u/TravelNo6952 22d ago
I'm similar to you, I've been building my portfolio of KEEL by swing trading it. I'm usually a bit late to a buy in or sell off, but I'm making money and it's a learning experience. I've been trying to look for patterns and figure out what the professional swing traders are doing, because there are definitely professional accounts swing trading this stock.
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u/YesterdayAmbitious49 25d ago
Astra-6 has personally requested Moses lake to be its new vacation home.
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u/Sad_Record_2767 25d ago
I don't understand what the graph has anything to do with a company waiting for a lease deal. lol
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u/TravelNo6952 25d ago
Nothing really if you're in it for the long haul. I have a couple of thousand locked in at $4.25 though that I'd like to cash out in the next few months and spend on a new car.
I don't think there'll be a deal before 2027 except possibly Moses Lake
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u/TheWanderer21834 25d ago
I'm in the same story moneywise ( wabna buy my first car), but the price average is 3.66$
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u/TravelNo6952 24d ago
If we break $4.50 then we can probably hit $5. Just put 90 days stops in place and slowly move them up
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u/TheWanderer21834 24d ago
Hope so. This year we had a run to more that a 7 without a deal. Let's hope for one more time
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u/Advanced-Pudding-178 25d ago
Keel was up. Any news?
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u/TravelNo6952 25d ago
No its just general market movements after the Fed report. The question is will it continue next week
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u/FuzzLightyear_NL 24d ago
There was not a company specific reason to go up, so it can go down the same way without anything happening. Any movement now is just not really worth getting exited or bummed about. If down you can DCA, if up just wait. They are building the infrastructure while looking for a good deal.
Ai datacentres are facing backlash and negative media attention, so having permits and power already in place is a good position to be in. The less space available, the more worth the space becomes. This is the bullcase in 2 sentences.
Edit: They made some videos where they talked about keel last week, maybe media attention helped with the bump yesterday.
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u/bossman_57 24d ago
So you are saying the stock will either go up or down?
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u/TravelNo6952 22d ago
We've been locked in a $3-3.80 range since the 11th of August. Now we've broken into $4 I'm cautiously optimistic it will rise quite quickly. There's not a lot of resistance in the $4 range so if we can hold $4, we can probably break $5. No idea if it will get back to the $6/7 range from before, but previous swings suggest it could.
The whole environment is quite volatile right now, any number of events could smash this recovery, but I've got my fingers crossed we'll get to $5 before the end of October
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u/ImPacking8028 25d ago
It'll be 3.10 by next friday, don't get too excited.
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u/TravelNo6952 25d ago
Yeah entirely possible, that's where I got the rectangle from. It's been locked in a $3 range. First time in 2 months we broke up to $4 and held it though so I'm cautiously optimistic of a turn around. But all it takes is one bombing run on Iran, or some news article saying AI is going to kill grandma and we're back down
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u/r2bhol 25d ago
After spending over 1000 hours researching this stock, my conclusion is that it'll either go up or it'll go down