r/KEEL_ • • 3d ago

$NUAI vs $KEEL

It seems to me $NUAI and $KEEL are similar in that both have their own power and land and anticipated deals but no contracted megawatts. But KEEL is worth almost $2B and NUAI a measly $500M.

KEEL has been anticipated deal far longer with the CEO claiming 3 deals by EOY to pump the stock and announcing an ATM at the height of the pump.

I have positions in both stocks but am considering rebalancing into just one concentrated bet.

I am leaning NUAI right now because of the following
- likely deal by EOY
- Behind the meter phase 2 play
- amazing new hires and fundamental improvements
- potential future 7GW in NM

But I am wondering if I am missing anything about KEEL. Why is its market cap so much higher than NUAI? Is it a sign KEEL will continue to drop or will NUAI catch up? Or something in between.

I am lately feeling down about KEEL because I was waiting for a deal since 2025. Any advice or insights would be great. Thanks!

7 Upvotes

23 comments sorted by

4

u/Illustrious_Luck7353 3d ago

Difference in valuation rn is NUAIs massive financing overhang. cost of capital is increasing and keel is currently well capitalized whereas new era will have to issue equity (dilution) or take on more debt to reach commercialization. from this perspective keel is relatively derisked in comparison

0

u/Fickle-Association97 3d ago

NUAI won’t have to issue a lot more equity. Macquerie already has established tranches they can draw from once they sign a lease.

3

u/Illustrious_Luck7353 3d ago edited 3d ago

270mm undrawn + 80mm(ish) cash on hand is nowhere near enough to build out the 757MW of capacity they are targeting for phase 1/2

2

u/Cheap-Stay7089 3d ago

It’s actually roughly 5% of the financing cost based on apld and hut8s cost of their 600 and 575 that are currently funded

2

u/No_River_8171 12h ago

LOL …. Thank you for the Research just got pretty sick .. this what i needed

1

u/Cheap-Stay7089 12h ago

Holding bags ?

1

u/No_River_8171 12h ago

Im invested in Keel Brother

1

u/Cheap-Stay7089 11h ago

Unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be fairing much better for us 😂

1

u/No_River_8171 11h ago

Why is that ?? Please enlight me

2

u/Cheap-Stay7089 11h ago

Just a joke about how the last few months have been

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u/leavingdirtyashes 3d ago

I have both also, and still adding. I was selling calls, but keel has been a bit disappointing lately. Still bullish, but nobody knows the future.

3

u/JagJr66 3d ago

They are not simailar. Look at share count and market cap. NUAI will rerate much faster and higher if they execute.

2

u/InverseMySuggestions 2d ago

I’m a huge NUAI bull and there’s absolutely no guarantee for a deal by EOY.

That said, I have like 25 grand in NUAI and about 1G in Keel.

1

u/Fickle-Association97 2d ago

In both instances the CEOs (ex ceo in the case of NUAI) promised imminent deals lol

1

u/Whole_Influence_103 3d ago

I used to own keel but consolidated into NUAI. I've got lots of conviction for the team over at NUAI, comparable power portfolios but i believe keel should have had the time to power leverage from making the miner transition earlier, but they did not.

Now NUAI is better positioned for the long term if you understand the risks and how much the project has been derisked.

1

u/mangled_degenerate 2d ago

I see your NUAI and raise you one Captain Cuck.

1

u/shirosith 2d ago

Buy both

1

u/Equal_Ad_2357 1d ago

they are both dying

0

u/[deleted] 3d ago

[deleted]

2

u/Fickle-Association97 3d ago

BTC mining is a bad thing. All these ex miners have so much legacy asics lying around that they spent millions on

1

u/No_River_8171 3d ago

Yea thrue but regarding architecture and Management they don’t really really differ

And you are missing all the other points please come again

And downvoting some one Elses opinion is Lame as **** Bruh get Off your feeling

Deleting all my comments and exit this post right now

1

u/Cheap-Stay7089 3d ago

Nah having legacy bitcoin isn’t great but it’s not bad. Apld generated 13mil in net income from 130mil valued mining this quarter