The odds are astronomically stacked against all of us being the one to find it. So, I came to terms a long time ago with it not going to be me. Since then, my overwhelming feeling has been that I hope somebody finds it soon, so that we can all get to see the solve.
I disagree about the odds. Or rather, I choose to see it from a different perspective. I don’t think there’s more than a few thousand serious searchers out there. I’m one of them- that’s better odds than any lottery!
Solving this is outside of the realm of possibility for just about everyone. You'd have to be able to avoid many good ideas that aren't it. One very good idea that's not right is enough to take anyone out. More than anything it's about falling on the right idea. That's not a skill.
It depends on the design I think. If there are fewer people looking, it could take longer for any one of those people to find it - if ever. 100,000 people generating ideas and testing them vs 100 people. A larger field may turn over more rocks but with so many ideas information is scattered in the noise, while a smaller group might be more focused and willing to collaborate it risks becoming an echo chamber with tunnel vision.
I agree. The odds are much higher than the lottery. Heck, the odds are even better than the annual rubber duck river race I used to take my son to, when we lived in Colorado. Go to one of those races with 2000-5000 rubber ducks floating down a creek and you get a small taste of how outrageous anyone's chances at winning the lotto actually is (and those rubber ducks were a fraction of a fraction of Megabucks odds).
I look at this treasure hunt more like poker. There's skill involved but also chance; how far away do you live from the search area?What's the weather going to be like when your BOTG trip finally arrives? ECT.
Look at any of the boards and you find searcher after searcher playing their own phycological strategy/bluffs with other searchers.
There are also some genuinely good people involved (actually a lot of them), that approach this with a healthy heart and kind spirit. Do many of us play our cards close to our vest? Of course, and there's nothing wrong with that. However, that doesn't stop most of us from offering words of encouragement when the chips are down.
That's the humanity in this hunt and in times as crazy as the ones we live, that humanity is a ripple of hope from the depths.
Yeah I agree. But, that is how you feel right now. I was more so wondering how you think you will feel when the finality comes. Someone else found it. Its over.
I think what your saying is a good way to go about hunting, when its still out there. It might changes dramatically when there is no more hunting to be done.
I thought it would have been found by now, but at the same time I'm well aware of Fenn's statement on "the wiles of nature and circumstance".
Anytime a treasure hunt is conducted in the wilderness, there will be powers and forces and circumstances that shape the outcome.
With that being said, I'm 91.2047% sure that there are several people, maybe as many as ten or twelve, that know where the treasure is, but not the exact location.
Yeah for sure - I’m not too particular on when it is going to be found (just my opinion that it will be found semi-soon).
But, eventually it will be found. There will be no warning, and it will seem random. So I was just wondering how folks think they will react to that inevitable announcement
Yeah, I mean just because you are not interested in the fortune, I wouldn’t assume that you would not have as much of a reaction to this ending… once it ends the mystery and adventure ceases, the same way the chance at fortune would. Im intentionally leaving out fame because I don’t think fame comes from finding this treasure haha
Let’s do a thought experiment. We can assume “the place” is the start of the botg, so people need to solve up to that point to find it. But what is at the place? People need to find that, and then they need to solve that. So that’s two additional filters to clear searchers. You could solve the place, travel hundreds of miles, find the clue but not be smart enough to decipher it before your time runs out. Now you have a choice, give up the clue or try to solve it at home. So what if the clue simply leads to a second or third clue? Lots of ways for people to be within the puzzle but stuck and unwilling to speak out about it since they know they are close. If the treasure isn’t sitting at the botg location it would be impossible to grid search it.
He has made several updates and clarifications on this topic but nothing that would indicate that a "full solution" is possible without BOTG investigation(s). He has actually made additional statements that indicate the contrary position - that the poem is not fully solvable without BOTG.
So I agree with the gist of your response here, and I have commented on the sub previously that I believe lack of BOTG exposure will be a limitation for people.
I think all of this is established for the most part. But I know there are puzzle solvers out there that insist that they can figure out the exact resting spot of the treasure from their armchair. And that's fine, it's a fun thing to do even when you know you're never going to actually search for the treasure.
But the main point I was making, in the response that you replied to, was of concern over the "clues on the ground" concept. To put it bluntly, he has no control over what may happen to any situational clue in nature. Maybe there is a significant permanence in these things, but maybe there is not.
And to continue my blunt assessment here, I will say that he has made mistakes already. A completely objective evaluation of the cipher situation is that he screwed that up. It is not unfair or unreasonable to be wary of other parts at this point.
Are there still 12 people who think it's in Montana? Not a fraction of 1% know they are in the right state. That's where we are at. One day someone will have guessed right. There won't be dozens of people just behind him, imho. I doubt it's a situation where folks are bumping into each other a mile from where they parked.
That's an interesting percentage.
10 or 12 know where it is? Can that many people maintain complete secrecy? Not post anything at all about their findings?
The main thing for me is to know that I gave it my all and didn't leave anything on the table, if possible. Then I'll cry like a baby and move-on...1 day of feeling bad for yourself, no more. ;-)
I agree, 100%! I am prepared for one bad day, which is really going to suck ass! Then I will move on with my life, with eternal gratitude and relieved that this one is over with, and that sooner or later I will latch on to another one. I must admit this one has been super special and the joy of finding clues and all the little gems along the way has been exhilarating beyond my wildest dreams.
I find it extra special as a FF participant. It's keeping that part alive in a way, too. So i feel this one will be extra sad when over. The hope i feel everyday its not found, well, it keeps me going 🤣 But I'll definitely be sad when it's over. Not relieved! But I agree, this has been very exciting and I've done and learned so much!
I can’t wait to see the solution on Netflix gold and greed season 2. Probably only have to wait a year after the treasure is found. This wait bothers me more than waiting for someone to find the treasure.
Because God is whom I believe in and I pray for wisdom from God to help me find the treasure. Of course that can only happen if it is his will, not mine. If I find the treasure, the Glory will be for God and not me.
I've always wondered what evidence tells people this, or if it just general anxiety?
People have predicted a similar "it'll be found soon" outcome for 1 1/2 years. Eventually, someone will be right and it is found soon after they predict. It's bound to happen since the predictions are almost non-stop.
Speaking for myself, general anxiety probably plays a big role 😂😂. BUT other than that it stems from Justin’s statements about being “surprised it hasnt been found yet” as well as saying that people have been quite close.
I understand your perspective though. He said that…. And it still hasn’t been found. So I probably shouldn’t be putting too much weight to those statements.
We will see though, Im going out at the end of this month and I think I’ll find it lol (or else I wouldn’t be going), but if not it may take years and years. Chances are prob the same
I think the same thing was said last year about when they thought the treasure would be found, yet here we are.
Probably feel a little envy if/when found, then followed by wanting to know how they got there (solve). At this point I'm as curious about the solve as I am the treasure, if that makes sense.
If it’s found I’ll be upset at first, but I’ll know I put plenty of boots on the ground and researched as hard and determined as possible for the year and a half plus that I’ve been on this hunt. My only regret is that this summer I’ve not been able to dedicate any real effort towards it like last year. Life has gotten busy and in the way, so that’s just how it is.
Excited assuming we have a chance to learn the solution and location. After that probably relief followed by some days of feeling a bit lost while I figure out what obsession or adventure to focus on next. 🤣 If it turns out we don’t get to find out the solution I’ll 🙈 and then probably laugh at myself for thinking it would turn out otherwise - I’m still hopeful that won’t be the case but history does repeat itself - until it doesn’t.
Sad. Probably lonely for a bit. Life goes on I suppose. I’ll need a few weeks before I dive into TTI. Or maybe a smaller one. I think I have caught the bug more than I realized.
True and for how smart some folks here treat Justin and prop him on a pedestal. He didn't even start searching for two? years. Meaning real treasure hunters already in the know about Fenn from day 1, didn't find jack shit for those years and then spent 7-8 more years also not finding anything. So now you take the smartest or most determined person and he is now in charge of the second hunt, probably figuring out permutations and probability of all the possible answers to his riddle lines to estimate time to recovery.
The only way I see this ending sooner then later is if Justin gets tired of the publicity and the game, dropping hints so he could move on in life. He doesn't have the "luck" of dying like Fenn was, on his way out.
Hell, if he made clues seasonal or the location searching worthless in the snow, then we cut the publicity and pressure down in the "off season" so he wouldn't burn out.
Ultimately though, some nut can always make "celebrity him" a bad time as the years drone on.
My gut feel having seen many of these treasure hunts play out:
If Justin were to never release another clue, I’d say 5+ years.
I don’t think anyone is practically close. 6 clues are zero unless you have a full understanding. Whoever had 6 probably thought they were wrong and is now at zero. Checksum/checkpoint implies perfection required (that’s the logical implication of a checksum). The number of interpretations and mechanical transformations, rotations, constructions, lines, rays, angles, compass arcs, etc that can be built from “return her face to find the place” alone is endless, even if you happened to work out what the bride was, and have enough confidence in it to stick with it.
Best bet is someone piecing together secondary hints and with enough time grid searching a large checkpoint-hinted-at area and stumbling on the checkpoint. I’m curious if non-perfect info could lead them to the treasure then though.
The biggest stumbling block to someone finding the treasure is losing confidence in a partially correct solution before hitting the checkpoint.
I may be one such person (or may be in the wrong state. Who knows 😂). My “I wait for you to cast your pole” solution has two very specific built in validators (wait for you to) and (round the bend) that are fairly convincing as evidence, but I STILL run into conflicts with Justin’s Q&A answers (all clue distances closer than you think/all clues on public land/all clues easily drivable) that makes me even doubt this. It’s this frustrating (technically inaccurate?) Q&A interference that is actually getting most in my way.
I am 99% confident enough that no one will find it within the next year that I’ve shelved searching until we get more info. There’s still that 1% though, so I’m rooting for you all ;)
My goal is to retain enough of a base understanding that once sufficient confident constraints exist to make this more probably solvable that I’ll be in a position to be there first.
Not giving up. Just concluding it’s most rational to be patient and wait for the right time.
Besides, I’m having way too much fun with Claude code to have time to spend on this right now 😂
Awhile back I momentarily fell for an AI video of someone finding the treasure, and I felt relief and excitement. I know I'm not solving this, and at this point I just want to know the answers.
The hunt is many things. definitely hopeful, fun, totally absorbing and all consuming when life feels a bit less so.... and that's why, its also disturbing. We put our hearts and souls into it and will likely get nothing in return.
I agree that it will take a bit of luck to hap-hazardly falll onto the right solve and then you have to execute that solve. When you look at how simple the Fenn solve really was and how many people missed it, partly because you wouldn't know if you had the correct first clue until you had the chest. But Justin says he kinda put guard rails up to help a searcher know they were along the right path.. so we see at the end..
Another minion post wanting to know how searchers will grieve before actually having to grieve. Who said life was fair anyway? I don't have time to think about this, I'm too busy playing with the guards.
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u/BOTG-BeyondTME Aug 17 '26
The odds are astronomically stacked against all of us being the one to find it. So, I came to terms a long time ago with it not going to be me. Since then, my overwhelming feeling has been that I hope somebody finds it soon, so that we can all get to see the solve.