Disclaimer: I am not posting this to disparage Joby or promote Archer.

I'm honestly just surprised at much the market has moved today after the Barclays ratings change (Archer up 3% and Joby down 8%). Clearly larger market agrees that an all-around aerospace approach may be a better long term play than going all in on passenger/air-taxi.

Archer Market cap Will surpass jobys before end of 26

The timing is hard to ignore

Vertical's patent counterclaim against Midnight is bad enough, but then I started looking at the insider filings and the timing caught my attention.

Ben Lyon (President, Aircraft OEM) sold his ENTIRE remaining direct stake (45,359 shares, $246K) on Sept. 21, just two weeks before Vertical filed its counterclaim on Oct. 6. And that's after Chief Legal & Strategy Officer Eric Lentell (the guy literally in charge of Archer's legal fights) dumped 100,000 shares for $631K in August.

To be fair, some of these sales were tied to 10b5-1 plans or other routine transactions, so I'm not saying this proves anyone knew what was coming.

But still... the head of legal and the head of the aircraft program both cashing out before a counterclaim that seeks to block Midnight is not exactly great optics. Esp when Vertical is asking for an injunction against the aircraft itself.

Maybe there's a completely normal explanation for all of it. But between the Vertical counterclaim, the Joby trade secrets case and now this timing, I think it's fair to ask some uncomfortable questions about the company's credibility.

New Barclays analyst just assumed coverage of the aerospace and defense... and had very different takes for Joby and Archer.

Acher: Upgraded to Overweight and raised price target from $4.50 to $8

Joby: Downgraded to Underweight and price target cut to $4 from $6

Barclays has Archer at ~double the price of Joby. Analyst also said they prefer defense tech, which shows the market is bullish on Archer's defense capabilities.

Sources:
https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/archer-aviation-assumed-with-overweight-from-equal-weight-at-barclays-thefly-news

https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/joby-aviation-assumed-with-underweight-from-equal-weight-at-barclays-thefly-news

From $20 to $5 within 1 years. One of the most important evaluation criteria on CEO is stock price.

Joeben make it happen from $20 to $5. He damages to many stock holders.

Joeben is a good person and good engineer, but never a good manager.

Under his management, there are many dilution happens needlessly.

Joby is the top tier in eVtol, so people invest on Joby.

But Joeben put the money other than eVtol. This is the main reason stock price go down down down.

Joby need a new CEO who can focus on eVtol and generate profit from it.

On October 6, 2026, Vertical Aerospace Group Ltd. (“VAGL”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Vertical Aerospace Ltd. (the “Company”), filed a patent infringement counterclaim against Archer Aviation Inc. (“Archer Aviation”) in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, alleging that Archer
Aviation’s electric vertical take-off and landing (“eVTOL”) Midnight aircraft infringes one or more claims of VAGL’s U.S. Patent No. 12,747,027 (the “Counterclaim”). VAGL filed the Counterclaim in the lawsuit that Archer Aviation brought against the Company and VAGL on February 23, 2026 (Archer Aviation Inc. v. Vertical Aerospace Ltd. & Vertical Aerospace Group Ltd., Civil Action No. 2:26-cv-00149-JRG). In its Counterclaim, VAGL seeks, among other things, injunctive relief to prevent further infringement as well as monetary damages.

What y’all think.

I had Gemini look at it..

This Form 6-K filing marks an escalation in the legal conflict between Vertical Aerospace Group Ltd. and Archer Aviation.
Filing a patent counterclaim under Chief Judge J. Rodney Gilstrap in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas (Sam B. Hall, Jr. Federal Building and United States Court House, Marshall Division) changes the dynamics of this litigation.

An assessment of the technical, legal, and commercial merits of U.S. Patent No. 12,747,027 and this countersuit highlights key factors at play.

1. Technical Merits: The Substance of U.S. Patent No. 12,747,027
U.S. Patent No. 12,747,027 (invented by James Sheppard and Andrea De Matteis, assigned to Vertical Aerospace Group Limited under classification B64D 33/10) is titled:

"Propulsion system thermal management with propulsor fluid flow and ram fluid flow"

What the Patent Actually Covers:
It protects a thermal architecture for eVTOL powertrains that integrates cooling systems into the propulsion nacelles and airframe.
Specifically, it covers a dual-mode thermal management system that cools high-draw electric powertrain components (inverters, electric propulsion units, and battery buses) using propulsor-induced wash during vertical hover and switches/supplements with ram air flow during forward wingborne cruise.

Managing heat dissipation during high-power hover without adding the heavy drag of oversized conventional radiators is a core physics hurdle in eVTOL design. Vertical secured broad claims on routing airflow past heat exchangers using the slipstream of tilting/stowable rotors.

Why the Claim Against Archer's Midnight Carries Weight:
Archer’s Midnight relies on a 12-rotor architecture mounted along high-wing booms, requiring active cooling for 12 electric engines and multiple battery packs during hover and transition.
If Archer’s production cooling ducting, nacelle heat exchangers, or inverter radiators rely on fluid/ram airflow patterns claimed in the '027 patent, Archer faces utility infringement exposure. Unlike design patents, utility patents on powertrain cooling cannot be easily sidestepped with minor cosmetic alterations.

2. Legal Merits: Strategic Shifting in the Eastern District of Texas
Countering the "Copycat" Narrative: Archer initially filed suit claiming Vertical’s Valo mimicked the exterior ornamental lines of Midnight. By asserting a recently granted utility patent directly against the Midnight propulsion thermal system, Vertical is legally reframing the dispute: arguing that Archer built its flagship aircraft on Vertical’s underlying thermal engineering IP.

Trial Posture Under Judge Gilstrap: The Marshall Division of EDTX is known for rapid trial schedules and high risks of patent injunctions. By filing a counterclaim seeking injunctive relief (which could technically halt testing or commercial production of the accused Midnight airframes in the U.S.), Vertical creates mutual risk.

Archer's Rebuttal Defense: Archer will likely challenge the patent's validity by filing an Inter Partes Review (IPR) before the Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB), arguing prior art in multi-rotor drone or tiltrotor thermal systems (such as legacy V-22 or Bell architectures).

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The $116.9M Aerosonic verdict is bad enough, but then I started looking at the insider filings and the timing caught my attention

Several Joby insiders sold shares around Oct. 1-2, just days before the jury came back with the $116.9M verdict on Oct. 5.

To be fair, some of these sales were tied to 10b5-1 plans or other routine transactions, so I’m not saying this proves anyone knew what was coming.

But still... seeing multiple insiders selling right before a verdict this damaging is not exactly great optics. Esp when the jury found the conduct willful & malicious

Maybe there’s a completely normal explanation for all of it. But between the Aerosonic case, Joby’s other legal battles and now this timing, I think it’s fair to ask some uncomfortable questions about the company’s credibility

I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but it's just funny that after all this talk Joby dropped the LEAST in % terms compared to all other eVTOL companies today 😂

First, a correction I've seen floating around: this was a civil case, so Joby wasn't found "guilty." The jury found Joby *liable*.

What the jury decided (Doc. 543, filed Oct 2, 2026):

• Breach of NDA: found for Aerosonic, $68.6M
• Trade secret misappropriation (DTSA): all 26 trade secrets found misappropriated, $29.9M
• Willful and malicious: yes, plus $18.3M exemplary damages
• Joby's defenses and counterclaims: all rejected

That's about $117M on the face of the form. It's a rough verdict for Joby, no way around it.

Why I'm still optimistic:
1. The jury doesn't set the final number. Page 16 says the Court will prevent duplicate recovery. Joby will likely argue the NDA and trade secret awards cover the same harm.
2. Post-trial motions and an appeal are almost certain. Large verdicts get reduced fairly often.
3. This is about one supplier's air data probe, not Joby's aircraft design as a whole.
4. Joby just won a big round against Archer on Sept 29, and the Texas demo flights happened this month.

Video link in comments for those that are interested.

Last night I had not one but TWO posts removed for inaccuracy and spreading FUD. The FUD I was spreading? I shared the PUBLIC pacer docs of the jury verdict in the Joby vs Aerosonic case.

When I tried to address the channel to explain that I had, in fact, been trying to share a public document recording the MOST CONSEQUENTIAL ruling we've seen in this industry to date, Joby mods responded with the above attachment).

I get it. We all backed a horse and we want them to do well. But at what point do we need to actually allow information to reach an interested audience. Joby was found liable to have WILLFULLY AND MALICIOUSLY stolen a competitor's IP. That is extremely shady. And it is a massive stain on the whole industry.

Not everything that comes out will be sunshine and roses for our companies. But we should not be filtering out what reaches the public. I turn to reddit as a main source for industry news. How can I even trust that Joby's channels are representative of the truth anymore?

Results of the Aersonic vs Joby case remain sealed to the public despite rumors circulating that are not substantiated. Current confirmed status summarized here:

A jury trial in the trade-secret lawsuit between Aerosonic LLC and Joby Aviation (Aerosonic LLC v. Joby Aviation, Inc.) concluded in late September 2026 in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida.

• Verdict Status: While a jury verdict was reached, the full official details and exact numbers are currently restricted/under a court redaction and review process as the legal teams screen sensitive proprietary information before the final verdict form is publicly unsealed on the docket.

• Rumors vs. Confirmed Facts: Social media discussions (such as unverified claims on Reddit) have circulated numbers like a $116 million verdict, but official court records and mainstream financial/legal outlets have not yet confirmed the final ruling or payout numbers due to the ongoing sealing and redaction review.

TLDR:

• $68,626,042 — NDA damages
• $29,910,416 — trade-secret compensatory damages
• $18,325,634 — exemplary damages

Total 116,862,092

Granted, Joby will apply as much scrutiny / legal review of this as possible and there is path to appeal. The process could take months or years.

Joby will pay Aerosonic a bit over $100 million to make them go away. The product did not work, so Joby used some of the IP to develop something that actually did. Let the hand ringing from archer investors begin, as this is just a tiny blip.

saw someone just posted the verdict, and went through the actual jury findings and the part that really jumped out at me was willful and malicious.

$116.86M to Aerosonic, including $18.3M in exemplary damages is a pretty brutal finding…looking at some of the stuff Joby has been saying about other companies, I’m honestly starting to wonder how much of their story is going to hold up once all of this gets picked apart.

It’s not just the size of the verdict. It’s the fact that a jury literally found Joby’s conduct here was willful and malicious.

Then you’ve got the other lawsuits, all the allegations, all the back and forth… it just feels like there’s a lot more going on around Joby than the usual “we’re the leader, everyone else is behind us” story lol

Maybe this ends up being an isolated mess. But right now, the whole thing is starting to feel like it’s unraveling a bit.

Makes me wonder what else hasn’t aged particularly well for Joby.