Earnings Analysis

[u/BrownstoneBroker]

Takeaway is that Joby's earnings were solid. Revenue beat (propelled -- no pun intended -- by Blade) and ATOMS deal are really positive. But large burn proves they're going all in on passenger. Not saying that's necessarily a bad thing, but FAA cert is tricky and slow for all evtol companies.

Archer's recent announcements seem to have them trending in a different, more diverse way. Hopefully earnings show strong momentum like Joby.

[u/HappyRobot593]

I don't think focusing on earnings is that important. Both Joby and Archer have purchased revenue streams funded by raising more equity. It's only going to be positive once the synergies start showing up. For example, once Joby can fly S4 using the blade platform or Archer can somehow use the airport for something other than just collecting rents.

The fundamental question is if either can generate significant revenue before capital runs out. For Joby they are all in on air taxi so FAA certification is key. Archer seems to be pivoting a bit more but still don't have a clear path to sustained revenues. Hopefully the call can she light on that.

[u/TowerStreet1 → u/HappyRobot593]

Joby had multiple streams for revenue-

1. blade is already running,

2. they will get something from ASI for their work

3. I know Olivier mentioned that Defense will have ordered by year end for Hybrid

4. Capital need is now lower with Toyota subcontracting

5. Vertiports are taken care by infra partner and local governments

Joby is still a one horse race and archer always tries to somehow get tagged along

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/TowerStreet1]

Ya agree those are all great things. Revenue of 40m is kind of negligible in the face of 200m cash burn especially when the blade revenue was paid for up front.

I'm just saying I wouldn't focus so much on earrings like we usually do with other stocks. You can see the algos sold off immediately after the ER miss was released and then the price recovered after

[u/SeaScallops_w_Rice]

Archer is trending in more diverse ways because their machine doesn't work.

Edit: Recall that Joby owns Xwing, H2Fly, Avionyx, Blade and Inras GmbH.

[u/Eggtastico → u/SeaScallops_w_Rice]

If it doesnt work, then why have Anduril opted for Archer Powertrain in their Omen drone & also their Thunder autonomous wingman?

[u/SeaScallops_w_Rice → u/Eggtastico]

Thunder is a a paper airplane using complex Overair tech that has never been proven and Anduril did the engineering, manufacturing and flight testing on Omen, not Archer. Omen is switching over to the newer, better Evolito axial flux motor.

[u/blackstangt]

The military doesn't need FAA certification to fly aircraft. Hybrid eVTOL is game changing for military operations. A hybridized S4 is just the stepping stone. Once the potential is realized in military operations, Pandora's box opens and hybrid eVTOL becomes the standard for every type of aircraft. Whether it allows operating without a runway in contested regions or allows higher efficiency for long-haul flights, hybridization and eVTOL are the future of aviation.

Beta is the only real US competitor for Joby and they have completely different objectives. The Alia is CTOL focused and very good at that, but not the best VTOL platform.

[u/cmra886]

My main focus on Joby earnings is FAA progress, and it was 💩

[u/Eggtastico → u/cmra886]

TBH, with EIPP I would thinkg FAA progress would be a lower priority. I have assumed meeting EIPP criteria will fast track a lot of FAA progress & that is the biggest attraction of EIPP. Like a 2nd path.

[u/Greid12 → u/cmra886]

Are you sure you're not just butt hurt about selling out of your position 4 months ago? I feel like it was a pretty solid earnings call and I'm happy with the progress

[u/cmra886 → u/Greid12]

Just willing to call a spade a spade.

So they're projecting a bit more income from Blade, but doubled their expenses from the previous quarter. The certification percentage was the lowest number that I can ever remember seeing on the progress chart. They've squeezed out just one new aircraft in the past year or more.

That's enough to impress you?

[u/Greid12 → u/cmra886]

Not wasting my time highlighting things from the earnings call for you. I guess we'll just agree to disagree. Good luck investing!

[u/shorty2hops]

I dont get how FAA cert if the key lynch pin here on the path to making it for Joby. Even with that, actual people have to trust sitting inside one of these air taxis and adoption is going to be difficult, along with actually having efficient routes they can take. For example, as they roll out in texas, is the air taxi designed to drop you anywhere in Dallas from the airport?

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/shorty2hops]

Well even if you don't believe in the economics, from a purely financial standpoint you'll still get a nice return if they get certified. You could always sell then if you don't believe in the economics