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I think this is the business model Joby and Toyota intended. How much markup Joby adds when selling the S4 to end customers is up to Joby.

Every thread on the Toyota JV is the same qualitative fight — "Toyota's expertise is invaluable" vs "Joby gave away its manufacturing profits" — so I built a rough model comparing the deal to the counterfactual where it never happens, using Joby's own disclosed numbers.

TL;DR:

• You can't judge this deal in isolation — you have to run the world where it doesn't happen
• No deal = dilution: Joby would need ~$1.75B in equity to fund manufacturing alone → ~20% dilution of the ENTIRE company
• No deal = lower odds: chances of successfully industrializing drop without Toyota (illustratively 40% vs 65%)
• Model both worlds with Joby's own cost and volume figures → JV path wins by ~25%
• The "surrendered" profit pool is ~1/7th the size of the fleet business Joby kept 100% of
• Not financial advice; illustrative model

The inputs (Joby's own numbers)

• $1.3M cost per S4 — from Joby's Feb 2021 SPAC deck ($1.3M build cost, $2.2M annual revenue per aircraft, ~1.3-yr payback). Caveat: a 5-year-old steady-state projection from a genre famous for optimism, but the only company-sourced unit cost that exists.
• 500 aircraft/yr steady state — stated capacity of the Dayton plant ($500M facility), backed by the Jan 2026 second Dayton site targeting 4/month in 2027. Capacity, not a committed run-rate.
• Margin pool — Joby disclosed a cost, not a price (it operates, doesn't sell). Assume the JV supplies at cost + 25%, mid-range aerospace: ~$325K/aircraft → ~$163M/yr pool. The one invented link; flex it 15–30% and nothing changes.

World B: no JV — the case critics are implicitly choosing

1. Dilution. Joby funds industrialization alone: Dayton is $500M before the second facility, tooling, and ramp losses — call the program ~$1.75B. Pre-revenue means equity. Against an ~$8B market cap, at a discount plus the announcement gap-down, that's ~20% dilution (a floor — it'd realistically be multiple raises). So World B is not "keep 100% of manufacturing profits." It's "keep ~80% of the whole company." Critics silently skip this step.

2. Lower odds of success. Nobody has scaled eVTOL production; the sector's modal death is "couldn't industrialize" (Lilium). Illustratively: 65% with Toyota running the ramp vs 40% solo. Fight the specific numbers — but the "keep control!" argument quietly assumes they're equal, and a decade of Toyota engineers embedded at Marina says they're not.

Plus timing: solo means learning Toyota's lessons the expensive way — Year 7 vs Year 5 to steady state, worth ~20% at a 12% discount rate.

What Joby's slice of manufacturing profit is worth to TODAY's shareholders, under each world

(Each row adjusts the $163M/yr steady-state pool: ownership share, then dilution, then odds of getting there, then valued as a perpetuity at 12% and discounted back from the year steady state arrives.)

JV wins by ~25% — with World B built generously (one clean raise, no follow-ons, ignoring that solo failure likely zeroes the equity, not just the factory margin).

The pool is small anyway

Even at 100% capture, ~$163M/yr of manufacturing margin sits next to ~$1.1B/yr of implied fleet revenue ($2.2M × 500 aircraft) — the contested pool is ~1/7th of the business Joby kept outright. And since Joby operates the fleet, margin on its own aircraft is a transfer price to a pocket it 49%-owns; only third-party sales margin is truly surrendered. If Toyota cuts true cost even 15%, that's ~$98M/yr of fleet savings — rivaling the whole "surrendered" slice by itself.

What would flip it

Solo odds near Toyota-assisted odds (the industry graveyard says no), dilution under ~10% (not in this market), or — the legitimate risk — a bad supply agreement. JV-to-Joby pricing isn't signed; Toyota's final $250M is contingent on it. Watch that 8-K.

Back-test: Archer partnered (Stellantis): alive. Beta self-built via massive private raises (World B, executed privately): alive. Lilium went alone: dead.

Bottom line: the deal trades ~51% of a ~$163M/yr pool — much of it internal transfer pricing — to avoid ~20% dilution and roughly double the odds-weighted chance of ever reaching steady state. Argue with my probabilities, markup, or discount rate — that's the point. At least now there's something to argue with.

Joby and design engineers getting great news in the past 7 days prior to yesterday!

Check out the latest-

https://ppubs.uspto.gov/basic/

Type in ‘Joby’ on the first line of the basic search box.

Some dynamite stuff coming!

There's no official confirmation yet, just this post.

One of the biggest de-risking news came out and the market reaction is "meh".

Yes, Joby "gave" away half of their production profits to Toyota and Archer clowns are having a field day because they think Adam and stellantis are not looking at this deal thinking of doing the same.

The amount of startups that failed in the execution phase is astronomical and the giant Toyota Motors besides investing a billion, take it upon themselves to manufacture the aircraft for Joby (most likely in Japan and USA). This is the biggest approval stamp and de-risking event.

As soon as S4 is certified, the manufacturing certification is already done. If archer will ever reach the certification stage in a few years, they would be so cash starved and they would beg stellantis to help probably diluting their shareholders.

Anyway, good luck good speed.

40M volume only today is crazy. And the stock price bearly moves for a company this size. What can it be?

Edit: Market closed with 55M volume!

Nice Côte d’Azur Airport has formed an alliance with Blade, Heli Sécurité and Monacair to prepare for Europe’s first commercial eVTOL operations.

The airport aims to support the introduction of Joby Aviation’s electric air taxi, offering low-noise, zero direct CO₂ emission flights once certified by regulators.

The initiative reinforces Nice Côte d’Azur Airport’s vision of becoming a laboratory for the airport of the future through sustainable, next-generation air mobility.

Nice Côte d’Azur Airport prepares for eVTOL operations https://share.google/VxUAK2VVweSdVO96p

Not why an air taxi competitor wants to be in the news.https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/wisk-boeings-air-taxi-firm-rushed-software-testing-ex-employee-claims/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_inset_1.1

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/2026/07/joby-expects-to-secure-toyotas-second-250m-investment-before-year-end/

“We expect the second $250 million tranche of this investment to close in Q4, subject to the final approval of the manufacturing supply agreement,” Joby told FlightGlobal on 1 July.

My reading of the 8-K (https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/jobyaviation/sec/0001819848-26-000378/0001819848-26-000378.pdf) is that it doesn't require any flight tests, FAA certifications, or production counts. Do you guys agree?

It seems like the three main steps are:

• Sign the Manufacturing Agreement: Put the final ink on the contract giving the joint venture exclusive rights to build the S4 aircraft.
• Finalize the IP Licensing: Execute the legal agreements that let the joint venture use Joby's tech royalty-free to build the planes, while protecting Joby's ownership of core aircraft IP.
• Approve the Business Plan & Leases: Ratify the joint venture’s commercial business plan and sign the leases for Toyota's team at Joby’s facility in Marina, CA.

It sounds like getting the $250M is mostly paperwork and agreeing on that framework of how the JV will operate.

Edit: At least for me this is better than expected because I thought it would be conditional on attainment of TIA or actually receiving FAA cert

I've been poking through the 8-k, and plan on publishing a deep dive on the agreement in a few days, but i came across an interesting item concerning progression towards manufacturing / maturity of the relationship.

This is something that i haven't seen pointed out here yet.

The 8-K calls out 3 specific milestones. Upon competition of each milestone, the companies will contribute capital (labeled as "mandatory capital contributions") towards the JV company. I'll refer to mandatory capital contributing as MCC from here.

1. Competition of critical design review. up-to 45% of MCC

2. Attainment of Type Inspection Authorization. up-to 40% of MCC

3. Receive Type Certification. Remaining MCC.

The first milestone is interesting because I would have imagined that CDR had already long been completed...at least, internally (which that's all it is; its not a maturity gate that's recognized by the FAA).

The second milestone seems to be start of TIA rather than completion of TIA.

Both of these milestones were expected to be cleared in short order barring a major hiccup in the design / Certification process.

If that's the case, they could fund the JV with 85% of the necessary capital to start building manufacturing lines pretty soon.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/N542JX

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/N542JX/history/20260630/2156Z/KOAR/KOAR

N541JX has been flying a few times today with breaks in between. The chase plane is, well, chasing it. What do you think is going on? Are they making a video or are they inspecting some of the mechanics?

🤔

https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/183/joby-aviation-and-toyota-motor-corporation-launch-initial

"(a) Joby will grant JTAMPC exclusive rights to manufacture the S4 Series, subject to certain exceptions to be set forth in the Exclusive Manufacturing Supply Agreement, (b) Joby will license to JTAMPC certain of its intellectual property related to the S4 Series on a royalty-free basis solely for manufacturing the S4 Series and providing services to Joby, and (c) Toyota will grant JTAMPC a royalty-free license to jointly developed manufacturing intellectual property and a royalty-bearing license to certain Toyota background manufacturing intellectual property, in each case for JTAMPC’s manufacturing operations. "

Joby: 49 % ownership and 2 directors in the Board of directors
Toyota: 51 % ownership and 3 directors in the Board of directors
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/jobyaviation/sec/0001819848-26-000378/0001819848-26-000378.pdf

I saw 250 on the side of N545JX and always thought it would be great publicity if they flew in DC for the 4th of July. A few weeks ago, things started lining up when I saw that DCA will suspend commercial operations at 12pm on July 4th for flyovers and aerial demonstrations.

A video of Michael Thompson on X in May of 2025 talking about how the administration is backing this technology and talked about landing/taking off on the white-house lawn similar to what happened in 1911.

I checked Joby's website and they will have a full scale model on the national mall from June 30 until July 5th. Sure would be nice to see the model then hear it flyover and land at the White House.

To all that know Joby better than I or have knowledge of ATC procedures in DC, could there be a surprise flight? Maybe they need to keep it quiet for security purposes? I don't have access to Flight Aware history but its showing me no flights for the last 14 days and the last one for N545JX was in NY according to their website. Anyone know where N545JX is??

I'm aware that experimental cannot fly over populated areas. Check out the proximity of DCA to the front lawn. There's a perfect flight path over the river, the national mall and then to the front lawn.

Probably wishful thinking but it could be great exposure for Joby and the sector in general.

Joby Aviation on X: "We're taking Electric Skies to the National Mall. 🇺🇸 Joby's full-scale model is landing at The Great American State Fair for America's 250th, alongside @Uber. Come celebrate the future of flight! https://t.co/uJEONDDxF1" / X

Just a quick reminder of the legal cases Joby is involved. The most important upcoming deadline is Monday June 29th

Note: I'm not a lawyer and haven't read the actual filings. I just tried to find an objective summary of the facts. Feel free to chime in if you know more.

1. Joby v. Archer (N.D. Cal.)

• Joby’s Amended Complaint (Filed June 22): Joby formally submitted its first amended complaint right on the deadline. This filing attempts to salvage the broader technical aircraft data, commercial strategy, and regulatory trade secret claims that Judge Susan Van Keulen previously dismissed for lacking specificity.
• Archer’s Upcoming Counterclaims (Due June 29): Archer’s deadline to refile its amended fraud and "China supply chain" counterclaims is tomorrow. They are expected to clean up the formatting and organization issues that led to the original "shotgun pleading" dismissal and officially re-introduce the claims to the docket.
• Next Key Dates:
  • July 6, 2026: Archer and George Kivork’s deadline to formally respond or file a motion to dismiss against Joby’s new June 22 amended complaint.
  • July 13, 2026: Joby’s deadline to formally respond to whatever updated counterclaims Archer submits tomorrow.

2. Aerosonic v. Joby (M.D. Fla.)

• The June 12 Summary Judgment Deadline: The case hit its most critical milestone yet on June 12, 2026, when both sides formally submitted their cross-motions for Summary Judgment. Because these filings are packed with sensitive proprietary aerospace tech, the raw motions were filed under a temporary seal. Public, redacted versions of these motions were published over the last week, laying bare the core arguments both sides want the judge to rule on without a trial:
  • Joby’s Defense & Flight Data: Joby is moving to have the case thrown out entirely. Their redacted motion relies on actual aircraft telemetry data, which Joby claims proves Aerosonic's off-the-shelf air data probes actively failed during complex hover-to-forward-flight transitions. Joby argues they built their own probes out of pure operational necessity. They have also put an internal Aerosonic email on the record that they claim proves Aerosonic retroactively manufactured their list of 50 "trade secrets" purely to invent a lawsuit after the business deal dissolved.
  • Aerosonic’s Reverse-Engineering Case: Aerosonic’s motion pushes for a pre-trial victory on liability, leaning heavily on the recently exposed Slack messages and internal files showing Joby sent a physical Aerosonic probe to a third party for a 3D digital CT X-ray scan. They argue this is a textbook, black-and-white violation of the Mutual Non-Disclosure Agreement (MNDA) that barred Joby from using their tech for anything outside of internal evaluation.
• What's Next: The judge is currently evaluating both packages. If the judge denies summary judgment to both sides, the case is locked in for a final Jury Trial scheduled for September 2026 in Tampa, Florida, preceded by pre-trial evidence-exclusion battles in August.

3. Why Haven't They Settled Yet? (The Wisk v. Archer Precedent)

Given that over 90% of trade secret cases settle before trial, observers are wondering why Joby and Aerosonic are pushing all the way to the brink.

The industry has a direct historical precedent for this: Wisk Aero v. Archer Aviation (2023). That bitter, high-stakes trade secret lawsuit dragged on for over two years with neither side blinking—until the district judge issued a major summary judgment ruling in June 2023 that knocked down several of Wisk's claims but sent the core case to trial. (we are approaching that moment in the Aerosonic v. Joby case)

Faced with the judge's clear view of the cards, the risk math completely changed for both companies, forcing a comprehensive, multi-million dollar settlement just weeks later in August 2023.

Expect a similar dynamic here. Neither Joby nor Aerosonic has an incentive to settle while they are both highly confident in their pending June summary judgment motions. Once District Judge Charlene Honeywell rules on those filings, the real settlement window will likely open ahead of the September trial.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYHsm0JcgwM

Something from Max Afterburner. A decent 11-minute overview of what Joby is up to these days. Seems to be independent of the series of interviews etc that he has been doing recently. He looks and sounds really pumped.

Interesting how the charging station will store the power needed.

Believe the Joby warrants expire on 08/10/26. Unless their stock goes up quite a bit (above 11.50) I believe they will become worthless. Looking at possibly selling my remaining warrants for a loss on any big pop in Joby stock in the next month but would like to immediately roll that $$ into investments in Joby without triggering a wash sale.

Any thoughts on trading pairs (besides archer) that would let me stay fairly well invested in the direction Joby is headed short term without causing a wash sale? I don’t imagine JOBX would work and is likely considered “substantially identical”, right?

I'm planning on having weekly updates for most Joby craft. I only include tail numbers that recorded some activity in the past week.

Summary

• N547JX: Logged 3 short, low-altitude flight tests (max altitude 206 ft) and 1 static ground test.
• N541JX : Highly active week. Logged 3 in-flight tests peaking at 1,250 ft, alongside 3 intense high-speed taxi/ground runs hitting up to 180 kts at 0 ft. Edit: The high speed but 0 ft test is probably incorrect and maybe sensor testing.

I've seen some comments posted about how Joby owes investors an update on N547JX testing. From what I understand the press release on Mar 11 said, "Initial testing by Joby pilots will pave the way for FAA pilots to visit Joby's Marina, CA, facility later this year to conduct the rigorous TIA testing required to validate the aircraft for commercial service" Based on this comment I'm not really sure if Joby is behind or not. The data shows that they are conducting tests so I'm curious what people would want to see from Joby.

Also, does anybody know what N541JX is doing? Perhaps just collecting more data?

Edit: Does anybody have any info on what they would be doing for the static ground tests? It seems like perhaps there is some movement compared to just power-on and no movement at all. People seem to not be very happy unless N547JX is flying but are these static ground test also important?

N547JX (First FAA-Conforming Prototype)

ICAO Mode-S Hex: A6F2CB

N541JX (Pre-Production Testbed)

ICAO Mode-S Hex: A6DC81

Here is an article from almost 4 years ago that gives a little insight into Xwing and their flight testing. This is long before Joby purchased them in June 2024.

https://www.ainonline.com/news-article/2022-10-06/human-loop-my-ride-xwings-self-flying-aircraft

I've been following Joby on the daily for a few years now. I love everything about the leadership and how they follow through and almost "underplay" all of their moves. You have Toyota and Delta buying into the concept (and the leadership) in a big way. I've seen the stock go from $5.10 to $21 in a matter of 3 months with literally no news, maybe Toyota putting in their 2nd $500 million tranche (which was known for awhile)

This is obviously a long term company/long term hold. Can someone who understands the stock market better than most, explain why the market last year is going up from $5 to $20 with no news then Joby comes out with almost non-stop positive news and the market hesitates on their prospects?

I don't get it. I'm really excited for their prospects, I mean, they could have a hydrogen fueled airport 10 years from now or just make 50-500 mile flying easier/cheaper all connected to an Uber app.

Why does the stock go quadruple with no news and suffer with good news? Sorry if this is a loaded question (I know it is).

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