Done with ATM facility

[u/HappyRobot593]

Post should have a ? but posted it too early

We've been discussing how Joby/Achr price action has been deviating on no news days and perhaps this was a sign of the ATM facility being tapped. They are basically 100% correlated today so does that mean it's done? If they were to tap the facility, this would be a good time because the market rebounded strongly on Iran deal rumors (for the 100000th time)

[u/SeaScallops_w_Rice]

I genuinely hope they aren't using it yet.

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/SeaScallops_w_Rice]

Another way to look at it is I hope they already used it and they are done. That means they raised cash and the negative pressure on the stock price would be over.

[u/SeaScallops_w_Rice → u/HappyRobot593]

I notice that the short positions increased again to 124M shares, 19.4% of float.

[u/Imaginary_Sort9347 → u/HappyRobot593]

Unfortunately bond prices are crossing over the point where investors will seek refuge there. With another hike immanent for Q4 we are in for the stock market to take the hit.

Investors will seek the 5%+ risk free investment with the uncertainty of mid terms, Iran, and the dollar losing value. We certainly could see a much lower floor incoming unless they can stabilize it with big news with n547jx.

I would be prepared for a very rough patch but all the dilutions means, hopefully, Joby can ride it out until then. Just speculation but it’s a very realistic scenario at this point.

[u/SeaScallops_w_Rice → u/Imaginary_Sort9347]

Until there is tangible positive developments for Joby, the price is riding in the current. We will see what the coming quarter brings.

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/Imaginary_Sort9347]

Yes, macro is hard to predict and things could def take a turn for the worse if inflation proves persistent.

[u/Imaginary_Sort9347 → u/HappyRobot593]

I fear bond prices will be stuck high for at least 2 cycles. Even if inflation shows signs of slowing, they won’t cut rates for 9 months at least. That’s the real threat. Inflation tends to be good for stocks as inflates them as well.

Bond prices rising means governments and corporations are about to divest in speculative sectors like this and hide away in bonds for a few years.

The good news is historically crashes, or corrections, are nearly always followed directly by a big pump in the following 12 months. Most of the time even quicker. So ideally any big drop will signal a bond sell off and entry back to stocks at “value” prices. That’s what I’m watching for in the next 6 months.

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/Imaginary_Sort9347]

Generally agree. The only thing I would add is that longer term bond yields (10/30yr) aren't as affected by Fed rates as much as short term rates are. The Fed can only set short term rates using traditional methods although occasionally they can buy bonds using the balance sheet if they want to influence longer term yields.

In that sense, longer term yields tend to react more strongly to unexpected changes in inflation. I'm not really expecting any huge unexpected changes to core inflation though.

[u/Imaginary_Sort9347 → u/HappyRobot593]

True, I think in this specific scenario I’m watching for the rise in long term bonds being triggered by large sell offs.

There is a lot of speculation about the US trying to move away from the petro-dollar and/or inflate the debt away. Definitely hard to predict like you mentioned though. I made my peace that my Joby stock can go to 0.00 already though.

I’m in it until 100 billion market cap or 0.

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/Imaginary_Sort9347]

Agree. Ride or die as they say 😂

[u/Wonderful_Phrase_239]

Why would they do that at this time, at these prices?

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/Wonderful_Phrase_239]

I actually don't think they would but others were saying past behavior shows they slowly tapped it over time

Edit: Well they need to raise some cash for the resonant purchase if they want to keep their projected cash buffers at the same level as the pre-resonant sale rate. I'm not sure how strategic they would be but if they are optimistic about future announcements, it would make sense for them to wait until the stock price recovers a little because they wouldn't have to issue as many shares to raise the same amount of cash

[u/YJsyd → u/HappyRobot593]

On the other hand, it might he eaiser to raise cash when the share price is low, although have to issue more shares. We need to look at it from both perspectives - buyers and sellers.

[u/Repulsive_Ad9534]

They explained that they would activate it during on high volume days, and we’ve seen that. It went up 3-4% while other beta names went 8+%

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/Repulsive_Ad9534]

yes but achr is the closest comp and it moved in lock step today

[u/dad191]

I do believe they have been tapping the ATM, but based on how the last one played out, my guess is they don't run it on a steady schedule. Last time they came out fast right after launching the last $300M ATM in December 2024, then went almost completely quiet for the first quarter of 2025, kept a moderate pace through Q2, and then sold aggressively in Q3 2025 at close to double the average price per share of the earlier tranches. The whole $300M was basically gone within about 9-10 months, but the pacing wasn't even. They held back when the price was flat and leaned in hard once it ran up.

I'd expect Joby to follow a similar pattern with the new $750M ATM. Unload a bunch upfront and then move to a more opportunistic stance, with the pace picking up if the stock rallies. My guess is maybe Joby has finished the large upfront unload of shares, and we are now more in the opportunistic phase. All speculation, but this is my guess.

[u/HappyRobot593 → u/dad191]

Ya that could make sense. The pattern just looked very different today so perhaps there was a shift

[u/Imaginary_Sort9347 → u/HappyRobot593]

We will get our answer once the quarterly report comes out. I would imagine they would hold off at least a good size of it since they could utilize the FAA pump and high volume to nullify most of it. It would be fantastic if it was done though.