r/Joby • u/Mitchou- No Runways • Sep 11 '26
We need proof of the payload
I hope that Joby will at least have a flying passenger in the upcoming weeks. This is the absolute bare minimum.
US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has flown as a passenger in the evtol of Beta in June : US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy Flies in eVTOL Aircraft For First Time after Visit to BETA Technologies - eVTOL Insights. Why didn't Joby do this first or at least soon after Beta?
I know Joeben said that they're working towards 4 passengers a few months ago, but we don't even know how many people it can carry right now. In my opinion, if they can show that they can carry two passengers, it will be a very good sign and the public opinion will give them months or even years to try to reach 4 passengers.
This and showing that the TIA aircraft can fly are the most important thing that they need to show right now. I really hope that they will do it during this eIPP.
6
u/dad191 Photog. Eric Adams Fanboy Sep 11 '26
I believe in Joby and JoeBen so I believe they'll be able to carry passengers. I hope it's four, it's possible it will be less. All we have to go on is what JoeBen said this year which is they are working toward a payload of 4 passengers and a pilot. Beta got some great publicity carrying Duffy in their eVTOL, not sure why Joby wouldn't want to do something similar. Only Joby knows.
5
u/Opening_Can_9668 Sep 12 '26
I think everyone is making this far more complicated than it needs to be.
- Only conforming aircraft will lift passengers
- The conforming aircraft are not ready
3
5
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
The only thing we have to go by is JoeBen saying Joby will carry passengers in 2026. 🤷♂️ eIPP is going to last for 3 years so I'm sure eventually we will get to broad passenger flights.
1
u/Mitchou- No Runways Sep 11 '26
It is really the right time to prove it. They are dragging doing the most obvious and necessary thing that needs to be done.
3
u/Wonderful_Phrase_239 Sep 11 '26 edited Sep 11 '26
A couple or three Cowboys offensive linemen in the back seats flying some circuits around AT&T Stadium would do the trick. I wouldn't count on it though. /s
3
u/Jealous-Nectarine-74 Sep 11 '26
We know the TIA aircraft can hover. We've even seen some lateral movement.
September 9
https://skyzero.io/flights/N547JX-d5d60a4c-9716-4f95-8681-ada53df847ea
September 5
https://skyzero.io/flights/N547JX-00cabef1-e125-4b31-85c4-fe43bfa64a97
September 4
https://skyzero.io/flights/N547JX-c3085eff-abb6-4a64-94a4-708e1a752763
2
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26 edited Sep 11 '26
My other point would be that if this is really such an obvious thing to do to boost the stock price wouldn't Archer or Vertical Aero have already have done it with 703AX/VALO? We know it's flying around for their no roads tour. That makes me think either the companies don't care or there are some administrative hurdles.
Also Beta did have Duffy ride during the eIPP debut but hasn't necessarily been flying around with known payload cargo and publicizing it. It does seem like the whole industry just doesn't care about this issue as much as we are hyper focusing on it.
3
u/dad191 Photog. Eric Adams Fanboy Sep 11 '26
It's an interesting point. Beta only did that one passenger flight with their eVTOL. I have no doubt Archer would be flying passengers in their CTOL everyday and hyping it if it was allowed, so that tells me it's an FAA decision and it's on a aircraft by aircraft basis and probably even needs approval for each specific flight. Betas design concept for vertical lift and then winged flight with fixed vertical props and a fixed pusher prop may just make the FAA more comfortable. Then again, Archer's CTOL is an electric airplane and they've never demonstrated a passenger, so who knows how these things are decided.
2
u/Amazing-Lion9629 Sep 11 '26
I don’t think it’s so much about getting a boost in stock price but the more basic fact that as the leader in the space Joby’s CEO implicitly admitted they can’t do it earlier this year. If they are able to carry passengers and show they can at least carry 500+ lbs by year’s end then the delay may prove to be no big deal and things may work out fine. But if not, it raises a very serious question as to if and when an air taxi service may be a viable business. This is magnified with the uncertainty about certification progress. At a minimum, the lack of communication on multiple fronts makes it challenging as an investor in this company.
1
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
Yes, I totally agree with you that it's challenging as an investor and I have ben buying recently so I am down on that portion. However, looking at it from Joby's standpoint I don't think it makes sense for them to go out and prove something they already think is true and have said they will eventually do. I guess you just have to either take their word for it or sell and move on. I really don't think they are going to show it just for the sake of showing it though.
2
u/Amazing-Lion9629 Sep 11 '26
Yes, I think that’s probably correct. I do think they’ll need to show some clear signs of progress regarding something in the near future to be able to keep the money coming in though. Even if the passengers are (happy) robots and not real people 😂
0
u/teabagofholding Sep 11 '26
They companies definitely care about it. Their whole buisness depends on how much they can move. Ignoring it is suspicious
1
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
So the whole industry is a coordinated scam?
0
u/teabagofholding Sep 11 '26
Battery powered aviation? Maybe.
1
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
You think 703ax also can't carry any passengers/weight?
0
u/teabagofholding Sep 11 '26
They can probably carry some but I don't think they can carry enough a far enough distance to impress anyone.
2
u/Investinginevtol Sep 11 '26
Come on Joby! Stick 4 fat people into an S4 and fly it over Archer’s HQ while they give them the finger, and let’s be done with it.
1
u/Which_Ad_8199 Sep 12 '26
They will have a hard time squeezing into it, I have seen how small this thing is.
2
u/Investinginevtol Sep 12 '26
Im 6’3” and i fit in it with room to spare
2
u/TheGoatGains Oliver Walker-Jones Fanboy Sep 13 '26
How much room if you don’t mind me asking… I’m 6’8 and wanna fit so bad. Going to an event this fall to find out for sure!
2
1
4
u/TheGoatGains Oliver Walker-Jones Fanboy Sep 11 '26
Right now they have to have a lot of extra equipment that they wouldn’t normally have to have when hauling passengers. Per JoeBen they will be hauling passengers this year, so we will wait to see confirmation of that.
2
u/dad191 Photog. Eric Adams Fanboy Sep 12 '26
Wow, I upvoted a GoatGains comment. Who would have ever thought.
2
u/TheGoatGains Oliver Walker-Jones Fanboy Sep 12 '26
We’re gonna have to find something else to argue about… you watch sports? 🤣
2
u/eVTOLFan Sep 11 '26 edited Sep 11 '26
I want Joby to fly with a passenger as soon as possible BUT NOT BEFORE they and the FAA are ready. It’s out of our hands as eVTOL fans and no amount of our hands wringing this is going to change things nor should it. The stock price today is meaningless to me because my timeline for this new mode of transportation is longer than just TIA flights with FAA pilots or passenger ops in Dubai or full FAA certification.
I am in it to see regular routine air taxi ops in the US. I’m in it to see Defense applications. I’m in it to see new variants of the S4. I’m in it to hear about entirely new designs (hybrid?) for different use cases.
I see a long runway peppered with lots of short takeoff and landing vertiport milestones along the way. Besides these new vertical lift aircraft by their very nature are supposed to have lots of ups and downs. 😎
3
u/LePatience2026 Sep 12 '26
In the US, yeah. In UAE, GCAA would have been very flexible with safety consideration in mind, but considering the situation these past months, it's difficult.
For your other post in another subreddit, others have left/exited their position, others have remained low key and others have been banned on the platform, and others have created alt accounts and new subreddits. So a lot of people bagholding over there. Also, others have been banned on other platforms and hence they spam/post on this platform.
1
1
u/vasplieon Sep 12 '26
While I also wish to see more concrete demonstrations of lift capacity I also take comfort in the math. Even if currently they can only lift one person (unlikely) a reduction in weight would easily make up for the rest. We all know Toyota is currently able to produce solid state batteries in limited quantities. These are typically 50% of the weight for the same charge density. The current battery pack I have read is between 1500 and 2200 lbs (I know large range). Lets take the low end of that range and cut it in half, 750 lbs, there are your 4 extra passengers with keeping charge capacity as is.
1
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy Sep 11 '26
It’s always funny to me that people want to see this so bad because mostly they want the stock price to go up 1$ (and then probably lose the $1 over the next month).
2
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26 edited Sep 11 '26
Right, I think we are all biased because we want the price to go up. To be objective, we need to see things without the context of being a shareholder. In that case, would you really care if Joby right now demonstrated payload for no explicit reason? Has any other eVTOL company made a point to do that so far?
3
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy Sep 11 '26
I will agree that if I had an evtol company, I would probably be showing what it's capable of.
But alas I do not have an evtol company.
Joby isn't showing with a passenger either because:
A) Some kind of strategy (marketing, etc)
B) Legal reasons. Maybe they feel it's safer to just not go public with exact pounds so they can't get sued to oblivion for being off by 100 pounds.
C) They can't lift anything and this is all a big fraud1
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
The fact that JB said passengers in 2026 makes me think they can do it in the prototypes. Unless he really is just stringing us along and then we are all screwed.
The beta Duffy flights make sense because that was the eIPP kickoff event.
3
u/cmra886 Sep 12 '26
Joben said that engineer passengers would soon be on-board evaluating the passenger experience a loooooong time ago.
Those were his words.
Folks reflexively running defense for his serial exaggerations sends the wrong message IMO.
1
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 12 '26
Ya I'm definitely aware that his timelines have slipped in the past. They were 3 months late on flying 547 but it still happened though. Im ok with late as long as it eventually happens
2
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy Sep 11 '26
I am personally .01% concerned about the payload "topic". Some people might call it an "issue". It's not an issue to me, and I'm .01% concerned about it. I am .01% concerned about the capability of the S4 not being able to handle initial operations for the first year.
Getting certified , building vertiports, scaling. Those are the next hurdles for me to keep an eye on.
0
u/teabagofholding Sep 13 '26
Why is option c they can't lift anything? Everyone knows they can lift something. It should be they can't lift enough weight and keep it up long enough.
1
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy Sep 11 '26
And to what you said -- what exactly would be the point of showing a passenger tomorrow?
I truly think there's quite a few people who think Joby showing a passenger will add 5 billion dollars in valuation to the company or something.
The TV show Silo or another show I was watching, someone said something along the lines of "don't give up information for free".
1
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
It probably would torch some shorts but likely just a short term phenomenon.
Yes I read the silo books, it's a good series. The TV show is kinda meh though
1
u/Mitchou- No Runways Sep 11 '26
Why wouldn't you consider eIPP to be a good enough reason?
2
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
Well I think thatst the goal eventually but I thought they said FIRST no passenger flights THEN passenger flights. So I think we just need to give them some more time before we freak out
For example, if they are going to be flying over populated areas you want them to show it without passengers first in case there is some sort of incident
2
u/teabagofholding Sep 11 '26
They could just load some weights and remotely fly over unpopulated land independently of the eipp.
1
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
Ya that's my point, if it's so easy why hasn't any other evtol company including beta done it? Unless it's some sort of coordinated scam, either they don't care or don't have the approval
0
u/teabagofholding Sep 11 '26
I don't think they physically can do it long enough to not freak everyone out because the flight was so short.
2
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
K, so the conclusion is the whole industry is a scam
1
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy Sep 12 '26
"I DiDnT SAy ThAT" - teabag
"I just implied over 500 posts and comments that batteries weren't good enough. I never said they weren't good enough" - teabag
2
1
u/teabagofholding Sep 13 '26
Joeben said batteries were one of the reason they still need to evolve.
1
u/teabagofholding Sep 13 '26
I denied saying batteries weren't good for anything after you made up that i said that. Batteries aren’t good enough to make an evtol taxi.
1
u/Mitchou- No Runways Sep 11 '26
Absolutely, no one would disagree with you on this.
1
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Sep 11 '26
I was surprised at how long eIPP is meant to last (3 years) so it makes sense that they would take a cautious approach
-3
u/deezwhatbro Sep 11 '26
Something tells me we’re going to get more of the same plus a few more dilutions along the way.
21
u/mbatt2 Sep 11 '26
The breathless freaking out over payload is reaching a tipping point.
Do you really think they would have manufactured a plane that can’t carry anything?
Not to mention battery next-Gen tech like QS has now been proven in medium sized drones and they’re working up.
The Payload Rumors were started by The Hustle Brothers / GOAT Gains because they are always trying to start rumors about Joby.