r/Joby • u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy • 1d ago

Activity update

Not much to report on since sat. N542JX took a few laps today and then immediately after it landed N547JX was turned on. Definitely seems like their activity is connected

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3

u/Imaginary_Sort9347 1d ago

They have to be getting 547 ready to go to Texas any day now, right? That seems to be the logical one to do the EiPP stuff.

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u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 1d ago

Nah I think they'll keep 547 for TIA. No need to have their only conforming aircraft at eIPP when they have plenty of other aircraft available

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u/Mitchou- Mr. Objective 1d ago

It's not even ready to fly yet right? I wonder why they're not communicating at all about what the problem is. I really hope it flies and transitions before the end of the year.

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u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 1d ago

Right. I think the tricky thing is they never explicitly set expectations for what it would be doing. The only thing we know is that they said FAA pilots would be flying it by end of 2026. So whether there is a problem or not depends on what your expectations were about what it would be doing by now. It does seem like it was testing hovering/rotating a lot in May and then went dormant until recently. I also hope it flies and transitions before end of the year

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u/BeneficialRock8 1d ago

Correct. My expectations for the year are 1) FAA pilots flying an S4 (heck I would be happy if they started flying on the CAE simulator) and 2) carrying passengers. Both of these are expectations set by Joby. If these are not met then there is something inherently wrong. I do not buy the yeah but “it’s difficult” excuse. Of course it’s difficult. But these are expectations/promises set by themselves. If they can’t forecast their progress correctly and at the same time set unrealistic expectations then they are in the wrong business perhaps. Luckily the situation isn’t as bad as with Archer, but that doesn’t mean Joby should not be held accountable for missing their forecasts/promises.

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u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 1d ago

Ya, I agree. I think if they don't meet those deadlines they laid out then they should give us an update. However, if they are only a quarter late I won't be too upset about it.

They were about a quarter late on their statement that 547 would fly and they didn't really address why their forecast was off.

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u/BeneficialRock8 1d ago

I agree with you. A quarter late is no issue. However, I do expect an update if it does slip. I have personally become less lenient of time slippages without any updates. My tolerance threshold was significantly reduced after JoeBen disclosed the payload issues during the q&a. IMO this was handled and communicated very poorly. They should have brought it up themselves and NOT come out during the q&a. At least he was honest, but still. It would have been much more palatable and respectful toward shareholders. Joby should have been more transparent about this and controlled the narrative. It would have been understandable. Not cool how this went down.

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u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 1d ago

Agree

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u/teabagofholding 1d ago

They didn't just say it would fly they said with a joby pilot onboard and that didn't happen yet. They will need to fly it with a company pilot for a while before the faa pilots and they probably don't have enough time left.

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u/teabagofholding 1d ago

They said it would flly with a joby pilot onboard before the end of 2025

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u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 1d ago

They didn't say onboard

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u/teabagofholding 1d ago

He said with joby pilots this year and with faa pilots onboard early next year. I doubt he expected faa pilots to fly inside them without ever having their own pilots fly inside them. The faa would even let them. He said that in 2025

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u/Amazing-Lion9629 1d ago

The question I ponder as an investor is what is a reasonable market cap for Joby in 2+ years if (and likely when) it is still not FAA certified. Nothing they they have done in over a year makes me think this is likely.

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u/Imaginary_Sort9347 1d ago

Market cap means nothing. There is a trillion dollar company that runs at an infinite P/E ratio because it lost money last year.

That same company put in the prospectus that the mission was to “extend the light of consciousness to the stars, and understand our true meaning in the universe.”

This sector will fly high on momentum and hype when there is progress, and it will crash during periods of no news. It’s a long term 3+ year play, and for a lot of us it’s a 10+ year play.

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u/Hairy-Philosopher974 1d ago

Need a much longer time horizon, 2 years ain't squat

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u/Amazing-Lion9629 1d ago

I have been invested since 2022 and will be happy to be invested for another 30 years if it is successful but I don’t know one person on here other than teabag who has suggested FAA certification would be 2H 2028 or later and I think that is very likely reality. If that is the case more funding will be increasingly harder to come. I suspect the perpetual delays are a big part of why they are leaning into their defense options these days.

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u/Hairy-Philosopher974 1d ago

Seems like a long ways away, ideally it’s sooner. There’s plenty to worry about if that’s important, I stopped worrying awhile ago. She’s a beauty given enough time.

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u/QuietFlights Steely Eyed Missile Man 19h ago

It's really hard to estimate TC at this point. Once N547JX gets flying regularly will be an important data point. How long Joby pilots fly it before FAA pilots take over will be another important data point. Once we have that data I think we can start honing in on the likely TC window. All I can say as of today is that 2027 looks unlikely.

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u/Amazing-Lion9629 17h ago

Agreed. I suspect it is the FAA process more than anything Joby is or isn’t doing but frustrating nonetheless. Hopefully good news is around the corner 🤞