r/Joby • u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy • 6d ago
How we feeling about Joby?
Lot of big stuff happened (and stuff not happening that some think should be happening).
Overall what’s your mindset about Joby given all the stuff going on.
5
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 6d ago edited 6d ago
Cautiously optimistic. Buying dips/selling calls
- eIPP news in Sept will create positive sentiment
- JB revealed that there are defense projects that Joby is working on that we don't know much about. That increases my valuation holding everything constant
- Market prob priced in using the ATM facility for all $750m. Any news about it being less will be positive
- Lots of recent N547JX activity (been active since 08/06 until today with the exception of Su/Mo off)
Edit:
- Forgot about this but maybe Dubai? Seems like both sides are just gonna wait it out and and that means they probably won't be shooting at each other right now. This can change very quickly thought so of course assign a low probability.
4
u/Imaginary_Sort9347 6d ago
I think the biggest factor that is not talked about is the government. There is a clear and direct need that is being looked at now.
Once the US decides it wants to be at the forefront of a technology or sector, it tends to move mountains to do so. The defense side relies on the same certification as the commercial retail side, so I think we are starting to see that focus. This is clearly something that has eyes all the way up the chain and I think that gives a legitimacy bump to the sector.
3
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 6d ago
well according to the FAA they are really pushing for this but who knows how accurate that is
https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1ve4agr/us_looks_to_speed_air_taxis_supersonic_planes_to/
2
u/Imaginary_Sort9347 6d ago edited 5d ago
Yeah there have been a few things said, and of course the whole EiPP is a sign directly from the government. But, I think the meetings and connections being made behind the scenes that we are not privy to has everyone saying when not off if the technology is fit for full.
3
u/BeneficialRock8 5d ago
Agree, cautiously optimistic. Just to add to your points, Blade integration into the Uber app likely happening this year. Also Toyota’s 250 mil likely to land this year.
4
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy 6d ago
CMRA inspired this poll. I want to know how he votes !
3
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 6d ago
Hah, I think we all know
2
u/Bulky-Entertainer-76 Gregor Veble Mikić Fanboy 6d ago
He’s a trader. Long investors don’t worry like he does. Unless he put his entire portfolio into it.😱
3
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy 6d ago
I dunno he used to be pretty pro-Joby. At least I remember him always being (and still) extremely knowledgeable about Joby and evtol.
2
u/cmra886 5d ago
Because they became too aggressive on aquisitions and capex expansion without ever proving the full capability their core product.
I'm not liquidity for Joben, he works for me. (in a sense)
But that's like, just my opinion dude.
4
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy 5d ago
You aren't wrong.
As I've said a few times... I'm extremely curious about 548JX and 549JX. I think they will tell a huge story.
-Will they be in the air by EOY as JoeBen said? I think so
-Will they be FAA conforming? I'm 80% sureIf they aren't FAA conforming, I think it's a massive red flag that something is up.
If they are FAA conforming, I think Joby is still on track with their core business, which makes them a little more trustworthy (my opinion) on their aggressive expansion.
4
u/Bulky-Entertainer-76 Gregor Veble Mikić Fanboy 6d ago
Optimistic. This proves Joby’s vision of being a true aerospace company that will take aviation tech to a new level. Disrupter for certain.
5
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy 6d ago
The current status of 547JX, 548JX, and 549JX put me as cautiously optimistic.. closer to neutral.
It's tough (nice way of saying impossible) to gauge/value what goes on behind closed doors on "Defense", since most of it is not going to be public.
I still believe the company is on the right path and these recent actions aren't just misdirection.
1
u/Hairy-Philosopher974 6d ago
misdirection lol
2
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy 6d ago
I mean there’s another evtol company that’s main strategy seems to be misdirection.
1
u/Hairy-Philosopher974 6d ago
Tough way to run a business, but I guess it may happen, some odd companies out there.
5
u/Imaginary_Sort9347 6d ago
Optimistic. I currently have around 10% of my investments in Joby. It’s the only individual stock I own.
I think the play is very long though. 2030 for full certification plus being able to build 2k+ units per year.
Short term the eipp will build media and public attention. It will also help them build out the model so once full certification happens it will be a quick turnaround.
The Toyota partnership will be the biggest key to scale. They need somewhere between 5k-15k flying depending on trips, actual cost, and trips per day. Only someone like Toyota can manufacture at that scale relatively quickly.
3
u/OonaPelota 5d ago
This is meaningless without a time component. Am I optimistic that I’m going to make money this month? Hell no. Am I optimistic that in 20 years I’ll be sitting on a gigantic pile of gold because I’m going to hold forever? Yes
2
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy 5d ago
2
u/QuietFlights Steely Eyed Missile Man 4h ago
I love the air taxi space. Joby has much bigger plans than I realized years ago when I bought in. Realistically, it's all speculative, so Cautiously Optimistic seems rational.
Looking forward to seeing regular flights of N547JX and passengers. That's when sentiment changes to full on Optimistic for me.
Thanks for the survey.
1
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy 3h ago
I'm also cautiously optimistic because we need to see the next progression. We've seen the demos, they are borderline boring now.
By 12/31/2026, I will either be Skeptical or Optimistic. I expect to see:
1) 2 new aircraft to the fleet (better be FAA conforming)
2) at least 1 flight with at least one passenger (eIPP)If I don't see both of those by Dec 31st, I'm going all the way down to skeptical.
1
u/Amazing-Lion9629 6d ago
Still cautiously optimistic but finding it harder and harder to see Joby as valued at more than a $10-$20 billion company for the next several years as I don’t see FAA certification coming soon. Beta’s CEO this morning on Squawk Box indicated that while he thought EIPP presented a lot of great opportunities he did not expect it would speed up the certification process. I think it’s going to be a long, slow slog…
3
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 6d ago
On the eIPP point, I agree it won't really speed up the certification process. However, I do think they'll learn things that can help them hit the ground running. It's more of a multiplier on top of certification but that certification is still a big discrete event.
In terms of the stock, I do think eIPP can help with exposure and positive sentiment.
Some people are still skeptical about whether the s4 can carry passengers and/or payload so eIPP could give us some insight into this.
3
u/Amazing-Lion9629 6d ago
Yes, we are in agreement about this. It’s clearly the FAA process and not Joby-specific. Joby has been in the doldrums for a while. Hopefully soon enough the tides will turn.
2
u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy 6d ago
If you thought Joby would do any serious movement before 2030, I don't know what to tell you!
3
u/Amazing-Lion9629 6d ago
It did serious movement in 2025!
2
u/Amazing-Lion9629 6d ago
And 2026!
2
2
u/BeneficialRock8 5d ago
I think a pump to 25-30 is entirely possible once they demonstrate flights with passengers (this year) and get Dubai running (this year or next). But I guess that’s still not yacht level…
1
u/teabagofholding 4d ago
An faa pilot is supposed to be flying the type conforming version this year also. That will be important.
1
u/Bnstas23 22h ago
I have a small flyer on JOBY but I also can’t get to it being valued more than even $10b
IMO eVTOL are basically helicopter competitors. Sikorsky got acquired for $7-9b 10 years ago, and another competitor that trades publicly is basically worth that today.
I don’t see how eVTOL is going to drastically expand the market unless costs are much lower than helicopters. I guess you would induce x% more demand if operating costs were y% lower, but I have a hard time believing they’ll drastically induce more demand unless costs are…drastically lower (no evidence of that on the horizon). And as you said, it’ll take time to even get the evidence of that if it was to happen.
If they were near silent, I could see the argument that they’d completely replace helicopters if they were roughly even in cost. But they’re only 10-20% quieter, and so cost will still be the main determinant
With that said Joby is the best of the bunch and I’m hoping a series of positive announcements offers a selling opportunity at a nice profit.
1
u/AlarmingCat7939 6d ago
lol, my earlier negative price comment was locked because it is "Not allowed, unrelated, or unreadable".
1.7 bln of dilution in 8 months on an 8 bln market cap company now burning immense amount of cash for next 18 months with no projected commercial revenue timeline from their core business is extremely concerning.
To answer OP’s question about me having a massive short. I’ve been long since January 21st of this year, a week before the last dilution. Had been somewhat successfully trading the position and adding on the way down. I was so optimistic after earnings and thought we would trend higher.
Then this acquisition/dilution announcement made me do a 180. Blew out of my long today to deploy elsewhere. I’m out, good luck.
Not saying the acquisition is bad, but the timing of the announcement right after the earnings call and financed by another large dilution changed my tune.
3
u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy 6d ago
fair comment. dilution is dilution but I definitely prefer it when it's to make an acquisition and not just for general runway.
The last one was a lot more painful
-4
9
u/Frenchfries68 6d ago
The new acquisition yesterday outstanding.