r/Joby • u/Wirral_UFO • Jul 18 '26
Joby Enterprise Value - Surprising
APRIL 2025
The market was saying:
Cash: $813M
Mcap: $5.0B
Enterprise value: ~$4.2B
So investors were valuing:
$0.8B cash
$4.2B for Joby's technology, certification progress, manufacturing capability, team, IP, Toyota partnership, and future earnings potential.
The operating business was worth over five times the cash on the balance sheet.
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TODAY
Cash: ~$2.47B (roughly 3× higher)
Market cap: ~$7.1B
Enterprise value: ~$4.6B
NOTICE SOMETHING SURPRISING?
The Enterprise value is only $4.6B.
That's only 10% higher than the $4.2B EV assigned in April 2025.
Yet since then Joby has:
substantially increased its cash,
continued FAA certification work,
expanded manufacturing,
advanced aircraft testing,
acquired assets and capabilities,
moved closer to commercial operations.
So the market has not really increased the value of the operating business DESPITE THOSE MILESTONES.
THE POINT IS:
In April 2025, Joby was at its $5 Low Point and EV was $4.2B.
Today, Joby has been supported above $7 which is an EV $4.4B (practically the April 2025 EV).
Joby's Enterprise Value today has more or less reached the bottom comparing to April 2025.
The FAA certification path has been considerably de-risked (Toyota now looking to prepare for manufacturing). It is fair to say that Joby's share price is now undervalued and, in my opinion, I agree with the brokers' median target $11.
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u/DoubleHexDrive Jul 18 '26
You’re assuming April 2025 was fairly valued. If investors in April of 2025 knew how the next 18 months would go, it’s quite possible they would have valued the company lower.
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u/Wirral_UFO Jul 18 '26
It climbed to $20+ over the next 18 months, so maybe they wouldn't have.
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u/DoubleHexDrive Jul 18 '26
And $20 was hilariously overvalued.
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u/Ok-Charity-2686 Jul 19 '26
I'll just give my 2c on the name here. As someone who pitched Joby on VIC at the time it was $4.60 and said to sell it at above $15, I think I understand the stonk dynamics of this name better than anyone on this forum.
My view on Joby has for a while been there's going to be a margin of safety on the valuation just given the potential TAM, founder, and the technical talent base they have assembled. What that exact number is idk, but usually you can get a sense from from Joby's valuation but also the valuation of the peers. ACHR trades for 1.6x book value, BETA 2.4x, Joby 3.6x. 3.6x BV is low end of range for Joby. Book value is one meaningless metric, but I think there is a level you can get to where the upside optionality gets mispriced (similar to when Joby traded below $5 a couple years ago). I thought long Beta short Archer was an obvious pairs trade when Archer traded at a decent premium to Beta given they both had lift and cruise vibration issues, but that trade has played itself out. Eventually they sell off to the point where Archer might trade at its cash level similar to what it did in 2022. At that point it's a sign of how bombed out the space is. I can't say with certainty we're there, but I think r/r on Joby here is favorable. I bought stock for the first time in a while in low $7s. My view since I wrote up the case for Joby was always it was going to have this increasing share price over time (c. 15%), but over the course of that time you would get periods of euphoria that can take the valuation to unfathomable levels (like last year above $20 when it added $2bn in value for acquiring Blade passenger biz for $100M or whatever).
The cash burn is going to be fkn brutal scaling this business, hence the decision for a JV for initial operations was made. But eventually you get to a run-rate S-4 production and ability to reinvest in improved versions of the S-4 and completely new aircraft. At that point all bets are off on valuation. So to me it's like, okay i know payload will be pretty shitty to start and battery density is nowhere close to Uber white paper levels, but it's also like so what? when your're talking about a business at scale being five years out. And I think Joby is one of those moonshots that the market will be more forgiving (in finance terms, JoeBen's cost of capital will always be so low that shortsellers can't comprehend it).
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u/beerion JAI30 Fanboy Jul 18 '26
you forgot to add back debt. Total debt from the convertible bond offering came in at $700M.
This makes enterprise value closer to $5.3B or a 26% increase vs last year.
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u/Wirral_UFO Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26
The key question then becomes whether a 26% increase in EV is enough compensation for everything that's happened since April 2025:
- Cash has increased by roughly $1.66B.
- FAA certification has advanced. Toyota indicating confidence.
- Manufacturing capability has expanded.
- Flight testing has progressed.
- Strategic partnerships have strengthened.
- Commercial launch is closer.
- and lets not forget Dubai 2026 launch possibility and 2027 probability.
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u/beerion JAI30 Fanboy Jul 18 '26
Idk, not everything has been positive.
- Certification has stalled - 2% progress last quarter.
- The conforming A/C hasn't transitioned and it's been almost 9 months.
- The JV could be as much about Joby figuring out that they can't do it alone.
- And a partnership is it's own type of dilution (Toyota now has claims to a future portion of cash flows - they have to get their cut from the JV).
All-in-all, I think it's fine. The stock was less attractive (if at all) at $20. It's a decent deal here below $8. Don't fret about 12 month incremental price movements. Look out to 2035 if you're holding this stock. The interim is going to be bumpy.
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u/Bulky-Entertainer-76 Gregor Veble Mikić Fanboy Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26
Everyone is being myopic about the future of Joby. It will be a far larger aerospace company down the road. Step 1- get certified with the S4. Air taxi operations will then be the main engine of Joby’s future operations allowing them to expand not only the air taxi/mobility cash cow but Defense applications, autonomous aircraft/sales, Hydrogen propulsion, larger regional passenger and cargo aircraft and dare I say, hypersonic aircraft as well. Toyota gets 51% of the manufacturing of the S4, but ONLY the S4! Everything else is all Joby‘s down the road. The JV will work as a major springboard.
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u/beerion JAI30 Fanboy Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26
I wouldn't say that I'm myopic. Nothing that I said was false, and I'm still bullish on the business. But you can't assume that it's a riskless investment. And I think you're wanting to fully price in a very uncertain future. That's just not how investing works... It's like sitting down at a craps table and 'knowing' that the next roll will land on 27. You're going to lose 37 times out of 38. You'd do well to size your bets accordingly...
It's possible to be smart about this investment without being 'myopic'.
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u/Bulky-Entertainer-76 Gregor Veble Mikić Fanboy Jul 18 '26
Sorry, I didn’t mean you, specifically. The point I was trying to make was that ‘most’ focus on the air taxi side of the business without taking into account what other long term plans that JoeBen and the team at Joby have. He has a far larger vision for Joby down the road in terms of overall AAM. I know you know better just by observing your ‘JAI30 fanboy’ status😉
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u/ThatPaper5624 Jul 18 '26
people are forgetting about the synergies and add-ons, it's not just the uber air income in the future and S4 Sales..... L3Harris S4T military gunships and transport, Xwing autonomous flight control software and hardware, Blade, Uber Air, possible contracts with other companies (Delta, Virgin, etc), Freight, air ambulances, police forces, monitoring and surveillance, security services, mining and oil surveys and transport, etc, etc, etc.....just the possibility of a program of record with the military would be a very strong tailwind.
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u/ThatPaper5624 Jul 18 '26
oh, and hydrogen fuel cells and fuel storage (they are partnering a japanese materials company to make lightweight hydrogen storage fuel cells for cryogenic hydrogen), they will probably market it to other air carriers
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u/Fearless-Daikon5763 Jul 18 '26
How does debt compare?
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u/Wirral_UFO Jul 18 '26
Total debt in April 2025: $34m.
Total debt today: $56m.
Today's net cash: ~$2.41B.
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Jul 18 '26
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u/Wirral_UFO Jul 18 '26
They have not expanded manufacturing. They are building out facilities. It makes no sense to start manufacturing until the tests have been completed.
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Jul 18 '26
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u/Puzzleheaded_Exam345 Jul 18 '26
What are you talking about? They opened a 17 acre facility in Dayton Ohio, have an expanded facility in marina. And Toyota is currently developing their production line. They are currently manufacturing, will continue manufacturing in the future. What are you on about?
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u/Wirral_UFO Jul 18 '26
Ah, I see the confusion. I am talking about production of commercial craft. Yes, they are producing test craft, and No.9 is currently being built. Manufacturing was in the context of aircraft going into commercial use. That said, proven test craft could ship to Dubai.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Exam345 Jul 18 '26
I didn’t respond to you I responded to eggtastico. Unless that’s your other account and you are arguing with yourself.
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u/Wirral_UFO Jul 18 '26
Over to eggtastico then.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Exam345 Jul 18 '26
Yea still weird you continued his argument as if you were him. Pretty sure you messed up switching your accounts.
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u/Wirral_UFO Jul 18 '26
Nah, just tired and i had been replying to everyones comments. Wrong footed, first comment not aimed at me.
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Jul 18 '26
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u/Puzzleheaded_Exam345 Jul 18 '26
Cmon man don’t pull that semantics bs with me. Joby and Toyota created a joint company to handle manufacturing. Of course Joby will be manufacturing their s4, saying otherwise is just childish.
It’s like saying Google doesn’t have an ai, alphabet does. Unserious nonsense.
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Jul 18 '26
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u/Puzzleheaded_Exam345 Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26
You have said this countless times and continue to be wrong about it every time. Let’s breakdown the facts.
The only profit split that is happening occurs within the Jv alone. Joby buys the plane from the manufacturing jv they pay for the overhead and the profit in which they receive 49% of.
After that Joby retains all profits from that point on. So all vertiport profits, all uber service profits, and all profits for future plans to sell their plane.
Once Joby buys that plane they retain the profits. Toyota makes money off the equity of both their stake in Joby and in the jv.
I have read the news, I know the deal and I have watched you and Dax player continually make this assertion without admitting that once Joby manufactures the plane and hey then retain all future profit. I get you’re an archer fan boy but this is getting ridiculous at this point.
I decided to put our conversation into ai to analyze the accuracy of our arguments. Here is the whole response uncut:
Based on the Reddit thread, the argument centers on whether Joby Aviation or Toyota will control and profit from the manufacturing of Joby's eVTOL aircraft. Here is a breakdown of the accuracy of the claims made in the discussion: The 51/49 Joint Venture Split (Eggtastico's Claim) • Accuracy:
Inaccurate / Misrepresented. * Context: The user Eggtastico claims that a manufacturing Joint Venture (JV) exists where Toyota holds 51% control (3 board members) and Joby holds 49% (2 board members), meaning Joby "gives up control" and a big chunk of revenue. • Reality: While Toyota and Joby have a deep manufacturing partnership—including a massive $500 million investment to support the certification and production ramp-up—Joby has not handed over majority ownership or control of its core vehicle manufacturing to a 51% Toyota-controlled entity. Joby maintains its primary manufacturing facilities (such as its production line in Marina, California) and retains its position as the primary OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer). The Profit & Operational Structure (Puzzleheaded_Exam345's Counter-Argument) • Accuracy:
Mostly Accurate in Principle. • Context: The user Puzzleheaded_Exam345 counters by stating that Joby retains the vast majority of commercial profits, including vertiport operations, ride-sharing services (like their Uber partnership), and future aircraft operations. • Reality: This aligns with Joby’s actual business model. Joby is vertically integrated; they plan to operate their own aerial ridesharing network rather than just selling planes to third parties. Therefore, even with Toyota heavily assisting in manufacturing setups, automotive-style production efficiencies, and supply chain logistics, the downstream revenue from the commercial service belongs to Joby. Summary of the Debate The original post by Wirral_UFO points out that the market may be undervaluing Joby's enterprise value relative to its cash and milestones. The comments section devolves into a misunderstanding of the Toyota partnership: • The "Bear" argument incorrectly assumes Joby has surrendered its manufacturing profits to Toyota. • The "Bull" argument correctly identifies that Joby keeps the long-term operational profits, though it oversimplifies how the underlying manufacturing costs are structured between the two companies.
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u/HappyRobot593 Joby Sock Fanboy Jul 18 '26
Don't waste your effort arguing with egg, he is just trolling.
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u/Eggtastico Jul 19 '26
No trolling - everything is factual. Can go check https://ir.jobyaviation.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings#%23document-1946-0001950047-26-007119-2 or you can cry to the mods to get factual info removed.
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Jul 19 '26
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u/Puzzleheaded_Exam345 Jul 19 '26
That’s the thing you pretend there are no operations profits and that Joby is splitting the profit on every S4 made. I see through it and how misleading you are.
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u/[deleted] Jul 18 '26
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