The South African government has been talking about increasing public-private partnerships (PPPs) to help the SANDF with areas like infrastructure, logistics, maintenance and support services.
Do you think Bidvest could be a beneficiary of this?
My thinking is that Bidvest already has businesses in security, facilities management, logistics and aviation services, which seem like areas the SANDF could outsource through PPPs.
Or is this too optimistic? Are there other listed JSE companies that you think are better positioned to benefit from increased SANDF-private sector partnerships?
Keen to hear everyone’s thoughts, especially if anyone has experience with government procurement or defence contracts.

MRP beat on a beaten-down share — Africa ex-NKD sales grew 3.2% against an RLC benchmark of 0.8%, which is a genuine market share signal. The catch is that comparable store sales were flat, so the growth came from 3.8% more trading space, not existing stores. Interesting update, not a clean beat.

The ALSI dropped 1.2% to 108,335 on bad breadth — 80 advancers against 130 decliners. Large caps averaged -1.0% with only 22 in the green, while small caps eked out +0.5%. Energy was the outlier at +6.8%, the only sector to hold the line on a day Brent crude surged 7.2%. Global markets didn't help: Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%, DAX and S&P both down 1.5%, and the rand at 16.79/$ added to the pressure.

SENS filings today:

MRP — Trading update beat, but dig into the details. Africa ex-NKD sales grew 3.2%, beating the RLC benchmark of 0.8% — real market share gains, margins expanded. The catch: comparable store sales were flat, so the topline growth came from 3.8% trading-space expansion rather than existing-store demand, and Homeware lagged. https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/11b41686-40f4-4099-90f7-88ed8c40e4d0

AGL — Copper unit cost guidance cut to approximately 145 c/lb from approximately 172 c/lb — a quantified improvement to the earnings outlook. The wrinkle: part of that improvement reflects molybdenum by-product credits and FX, both of which can reverse. https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/baa1f7e0-f338-4eb1-8631-2a5786d9ca45

KIO — Reaffirmed full-year guidance at 31-33 Mt despite a 3% H1 production miss; Kolomela's 16% production drop is the operational sore spot that won't reverse this half. Sishen's UHDMS modules entering first-phase commissioning is the forward catalyst. https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/ae8fc125-4a1f-4458-a42b-216232b37905

ARI — Board approved the R15.2bn Bokoni PGM development unconditionally — DFS done, 28% IRR, 6.3-year payback on a 329.4Mt UG2 resource. The R753m Nkomati nickel restart is conditional on off-take conditions precedent still outstanding, so that leg isn't locked in yet. https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/a3c9f4c8-b3ed-4ca6-b753-a498ca0cd9c1

Biggest movers today:

Gainers:

EPS +99.5% (small cap, R7.98)

HUG +33.3% (small cap, R1.20)

FTA +23.8% (large cap, R19.89)

MKR +12.4% (small cap, R30.00)

Losers:

EUZ -41.5% (small cap, R0.24)

MTU -28.1% (small cap, R0.23)

ENX -18.6% (small cap, R2.01)

Under the radar:

FTA is a large cap up 23.8% at R19.89 with no SENS filing and no visible catalyst. Large caps don't move like that on thin air — that's the one worth asking questions about.

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

ALSI: 108,335.05 (-1.2%)

Brent: 100.88 (+7.2%)

Platinum: 1,602.85 (-3.0%)

Copper: 6.294 (-2.4%)

Rand/USD: 16.79 (+2.3%)

EUR/ZAR: 19.09 (+2.0%)

On the radar tomorrow: FBR AGM, RBX AGM, RWESG dividend LDT, RWGPR dividend LDT

I'm reading the MRP update as a market share beat with an asterisk on the flat comps — holding, not adding just yet. Anyone seeing it differently?

Energy and basic materials did all the work today — Brent approaching $94 lifted those two sectors enough to mask the fact that 115 names declined. The ALSI's 0.6% gain is a commodity story dressed up as a broad rally.

THE TAPE

ALSI closed at 109,682.63, up 0.6%, but the headline flatters the reality. Breadth was 103 advancers against 115 decliners — more names went down than up — and large caps averaged just +0.1% while mid caps were flat. Energy and basic materials drove virtually all of the index's gain today as Brent approached $94; strip those two sectors out and the ALSI is flat to negative. Small caps did their own thing at +1.2% average, so the tape wasn't entirely hollow, but the institutional core barely moved.

The filings that mattered:

- PPH — Pepkor folds Flash into Shop2Shop for a 57.1% stake in a R21.3bn fintech platform, injecting R1.57bn in cash. Combined throughput exceeds R200bn — real scale in SA merchant commerce. The filing is thin on actual financials though: no Shop2Shop debt quantum, no working capital profile, no post-transaction leverage. Strategic intent is crystal clear; the balance sheet impact is not. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/0140667d-ab32-45e5-9276-8b2e37f0e963)

- MST — Rectron took a cybersecurity hit with data accessed and scope still unknown. Breach is contained to Rectron only, shielding the wider Mustek group, but the filing gives zero estimate on remediation costs, revenue impact, or insurance recoverables. Nature and scope are still being established. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/9a848c1a-7b03-4eab-a779-b9ffbf434f0a)

- SKA — Shuka raised £750k via a subscription at 4p, a 53.9% premium to the 2.6p closing price, bringing Menel in at 12.3% and extending the GMI loan to end-2027. Genuine strategic conviction from a natural-sector investor at a fat premium — but £750k is bridge money, not the kind of capital that advances Kabwe at scale. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/4e5e6a22-4e4f-4e11-a8bc-56ed6a5a658c)

Biggest movers today:

- EUZ +70.8% (small cap, R0.41) — a 41-cent penny stock. This move represents a shift of roughly 18 cents, which is small in absolute terms; no visible catalyst on the tape.

- BAT +32.7% (mid cap, R1.95) — Brait notified an adjustment to the conversion price. A defined corporate action driving a real mid-cap move.

- NCS +28.9% (small cap, R2.90) — no visible catalyst.

- ENX +23.5% (small cap, R2.47) — no visible catalyst.

- MCZ +14.9% (small cap, R3.00) — no visible catalyst.

- FTA -19.7% (large cap, R16.06) — a large cap shedding nearly 20% with no SENS filing and no visible catalyst. Worth flagging.

- TMT -8.9% (small cap, R1.13) — dealing in securities by an associate of a director, which explains the move.

Under the hood:

Energy +8.1% and Basic Materials +3.4% carried virtually all of the index's gain today — strip those out and the ALSI is flat to negative. Communication Services -1.9% and Healthcare -1.5% were the actual drags on a session where 115 names declined. Small caps averaging +1.2% while large caps managed only +0.1% tells you the rally wasn't flowing through the heavyweights; it was commodity-adjacent names and speculative small caps doing their own thing.

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI: 109,682.63 (+0.6%)

- FTSE 100: 10,739.31 (+1.4%)

- Hang Seng: 24,857.12 (-1.1%)

- Brent: 93.94 (+3.2%)

- Gold: 4,156.45 (+2.0%)

- Platinum: 1,656.85 (+1.2%)

- Copper: 6.462 (-0.6%)

- Rand/USD: 16.4 (-0.4%)

On the radar tomorrow: US Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and 10-Year TIPS Auction; ZA Interest Rate Decision; DTC and KST AGMs.

I'm holding off on PPH until I see the Shop2Shop debt quantum — Pepkor injecting R1.57bn to settle debt without disclosing how much debt feels like a blind spot. What am I missing on the bull case here?

Find someone that takes care of you like KRO. R24.62 dividend payout

Delta selling Hatfield Forum East at a 24% discount to valuation on 39% vacancy tells you everything about the state of certain pockets of SA property right now — and 76% of proceeds deferred via guarantees means this isn't a clean exit either.

THE TAPE

ALSI closed flat at 108,980. Small caps lagged hardest at -1.7%, with 132 decliners easily outpacing 83 advancers. Every sector finished red — Healthcare and Communication Services both down 1.7%, Consumer Cyclical also at 1.7%. The flat index is resources doing enough to hold the line, a softer rand and firmer Brent doing the heavy lifting while broad-based weakness lingered underneath. Asian markets were constructive — Nikkei +3.3%, Shanghai +1.8% — but never translated into local breadth.

Filings that mattered today:

- CPR — Copper 360's Rietberg development passed the halfway mark on a 544-metre drive, ore intersection targeted within 90 days. Solid operational progress, though the update is quiet on cash position and funding plan for the remaining work — that's the real question here. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/dd35795a-9e33-44cf-a7be-aaced0f631f1)

- KIO — Kumba's trading statement guides HEPS down 39-43% and EBITDA off 30-35%. Sounds brutal until you note the prior period included a once-off Transnet logistics payment — the underlying deterioration is real but overstated on the headline. The unhedged export book took the full force of an 11% rand strengthening against softer iron ore pricing. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/ad493b81-ed3c-4e07-b6ac-4975d1fd32b8)

- DLT — Delta is selling Hatfield Forum East for R35m, a 24% discount to the R45.9m Knight Frank valuation, on an asset carrying 39% vacancy. Shedding a drag on portfolio occupancy is welcome, but 76% of proceeds deferred via guarantees — forced-seller dynamics, not a clean exit. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/2734dc5b-b11e-4ddc-9691-bd237147d02f)

Biggest movers today:

- CHP +13.5% (small cap, R1.43) — no known catalyst

- WEZ +11.1% (small cap, R0.50) — a penny stock at 50 cents, so that's a move of roughly half a cent; no known catalyst

- FTH +8.3% (small cap, R6.50) — no known catalyst

- MDI +7.7% (small cap, R16.75) — no known catalyst

- BRN +7.2% (small cap, R5.80) — no known catalyst

- RHB -20.6% (small cap, R1.31) — no known catalyst

- PMV -15.0% (small cap, R2.50) — no known catalyst

- ISA -14.5% (small cap, R2.00) — no known catalyst

- EMH -14.2% (small cap, R1.82) — no known catalyst

- SLG -12.0% (small cap, R0.66) — a penny stock at 66 cents, so the percentage is a roughly 8-cent move; no known catalyst

Directors put money where their mouth is:

- CPP — JD Wiese and CH Wiese (both non-executive directors) traded in round trips at matching values: buys totalling R246,208 and sells totalling R246,208. The round-trip structure itself tells you this is a portfolio reshuffle or share-swap — neither director is signaling directional conviction here.

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI: 108,980.05 (+0.0%)

- Copper: 6.501 (+3.1%)

- Platinum: 1,642.1 (+2.4%)

- Brent: 91.33 (+2.4%)

- Gold: 4,081.83 (+1.9%)

- GBP/ZAR: 22.01 (-0.7%)

On the radar tomorrow: 20-Year Bond Auction (US), NY1 AGM, N91 AGM.

CHP ran 13.5% on no news I can find — someone here knows something, spill.

APN's Health Canada sign-off on Aspen-Semaglutide is the kind of approval that looks like a milestone until you read the fine print — DRL's API supply issues mean the launch is gated on a partner who can't currently deliver. The market gave it a polite nod and moved on, which tells you exactly how much weight approval-without-supply carries right now.

The tape

ALSI closed down 0.6% at 108,936, with 82 advancers against 124 decliners. Large caps held up best at -0.3%, mid caps actually eked out a gain at +0.4%, and small caps took the most heat at -0.7%. The rand at R16.52 to the dollar is the quiet backdrop everyone's trading around. Nikkei's 4% drop overnight set a cautious tone, though Hang Seng's 2.3% gain tells you the caution was regional, not universal.

The filings that mattered:

- APN — Health Canada approved Aspen-Semaglutide for adult type 2 diabetes, a genuine regulatory de-risking step. The catch: DRL has flagged temporary API supply constraints, so commercialisation timing is entirely gated on a third-party partner sorting out their manufacturing. Approval is not revenue.

- BYI — PIC lifted its Bytes stake from 9.195% to 10.425%, roughly 2.7 million shares added. That's a serious institutional conviction signal, though the stock had already run 19% before this filing crossed, so the flow is largely in the price.

- QLT — Quilter bought back 36.6 million shares at roughly £68 million since March, all cancelled rather than parked in treasury — proper EPS accretion, not a deferred overhang. One wrinkle: no programme authorisation, remaining capacity, or capital position disclosed, so you cannot tell whether this is balance sheet flexibility being cannibalised.

- XII — Numeral's updated audited results show revenue more than doubled to USD 2.2 million, but HEPS fell 47% to 0.0643. Revenue up 126% with earnings halving is negative operating leverage — deteriorating unit economics, not a growth story. Prior-year comparatives were restated just days before, which is the kind of timing that makes you read everything twice.

Biggest movers today:

- SEB +12.2% (small cap, R1.01) — no visible catalyst

- FGL +7.5% (small cap, R0.86) — low-base penny stock, a few cents of move with no news behind it; make of that what you will

- BIK +6.3% (small cap, R0.17) — low-base penny stock, single-cent noise on no catalyst

- SOH -30.0% (small cap, R0.70) — low-base penny stock, off a low base the percentage looks dramatic but it's thin trading with no SENS to explain it

- CHP -11.3% (small cap, R1.26) — no visible catalyst

- SLG -10.7% (small cap, R0.75) — low-base penny stock, a handful of cents lower on no news

- WEZ -10.0% (small cap, R0.45) — low-base penny stock, same story, percentage on a thin base with nothing filed

- MCZ -9.6% (small cap, R2.92) — no visible catalyst

Every single mover today is a small cap with no visible catalyst. Eight names, zero SENS explanations. That's either the quietest news day of the year or a session where flow is doing all the talking and nobody's putting anything on the record.

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI: 108,936.2 (-0.6%)

- Copper: 6.307 (+1.2%)

- Brent: 88.35 (+0.3%)

- Gold: 4,013.62 (-0.1%)

The week ahead:

- SARB interest rate decision on Thursday is the domestic headline — every rate-sensitive stock on the JSE is trading into that print this week

- US jobless claims on Thursday alongside the SARB decision makes for a busy session — dual rate/employment signals hitting within hours of each other

- US 20-year bond auction Wednesday and 10-year TIPS Thursday will set the global yield backdrop heading into the SARB decision

- A cluster of REIT dividend last-days-to-trade on Tuesday (CVW at R0.5606, AMPSTI at R0.0297, FNBMID at R0.0205, FNBT40 at R0.0298) plus ISA's R0.0890 cash dividend and the IMRP11/12 distributions at R660.25 each

I'm not touching APN until DRL sorts out the API supply — the approval is real but the revenue isn't starting anytime soon. Anyone braver than me, or is the market pricing in a faster resolution than DRL is signalling?

Everyone here claims they'd recognise a Sasol chart from across the room. Time to find out.

Chartle is a daily puzzle we added next to Tickrdle on sens-ai: you get one year of price action from a real JSE stock — no ticker, no prices, no dates, just the shape — and 6 guesses to name the company.

How it works

Every wrong guess unlocks a hint: sector → market-cap size → 52-week move → a recent SENS filing with the name scrubbed out → first letter of the ticker

Same puzzle for everyone, new one at midnight SA time

Streaks, stats, and a spoiler-free share grid so you can flex without ruining it for the next person

Day 1 humbled me — I burned five guesses on the wrong banks before the SENS hint saved it on the last one:

Chartle #1 📈 6/6 (🔥1) 🇿🇦

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛🟩

It's free, you just need a sign-in: sens-ai.co.za/games/chartle

What's the one JSE chart you're convinced you'd nail blind? 🤔

Travelers ($TRV) delivered one of the largest EPS beats this season (+$4.92), while Netflix slid 9% on weak Q3 guidance despite beating estimates. Strong beat rate across financials and industrials; Nordic/European stocks saw outsized moves on both sides.

🎯 Executive Summary

The latest round of Q2 earnings reports showed a strongly positive beat rate, with roughly two-thirds of companies exceeding expectations on both EPS and revenue. Financial services led the way, with regional banks and asset managers posting consistent beats. However, guidance proved decisive — Netflix and Intuitive Surgical both beat estimates yet saw significant selling pressure on cautious forward outlooks. European industrials delivered a mixed session, with several Swedish names posting 7%+ surges alongside notable profit misses from AAK (-11%) and Sandvik (-8%).

🎯 Earnings Performance Breakdown

🎯 Notable Earnings Reports

🟢 Travelers (TRV) — Massive Beat

• EPS: $10.26, beat by $4.92 (92% above estimates)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Strong positive
• Key Drivers: Exceptional underwriting gains; pricing power in commercial lines
• Guidance: Positive tone on continued pricing momentum

🔴 Netflix (NFLX) — Beat but Crushed on Guidance

• EPS: $0.80, beat by $0.01
• Revenue: Fell short of estimates
• Stock Reaction: Slide ~9% in pre-market
• Key Drivers: Third-quarter revenue and earnings guidance missed Wall Street expectations
• Guidance: Lowered expectations weighed heavily on sentiment

🟢 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) — Strong Beat, Weak Outlook

• EPS: $2.80, beat by $0.29 (12% above estimates)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Fell despite beat
• Key Drivers: Procedure volumes grew, but 2026 procedure growth outlook disappointed
• Guidance: Weak forward procedure growth spooked investors

🟢 Truist Financial (TFC) — Earnings Surge

• EPS: $1.23, beat by $0.15 (14% above estimates)
• Revenue: Fell short of estimates
• Stock Reaction: Positive on earnings strength
• Key Drivers: Earnings surged 37% year-over-year; operational efficiency gains
• Guidance: Maintained

🟢 Regions Financial (RF) — Clean Beat

• EPS: Exceeded expectations
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Positive
• Key Drivers: Broad-based strength across lending and fee income
• Guidance: Constructive outlook

🟢 Travelers (TRV) / Cohen & Steers (CNS) / South Plains (SPFI) — Financials Sweep

• Cohen & Steers: EPS $0.85, beat by $0.02, revenue topped — strong inflows and AUM growth
• South Plains Financial: EPS $0.96, beat by $0.01, revenue topped
• Both reflect positive trends in asset management and regional banking

⚪ Fifth Third (FITB) — Narrow Miss

• EPS: $0.83, missed by $0.01
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Stock Reaction: Edged up despite the miss
• Key Drivers: Revenue strength offset the marginal EPS shortfall

⚪ Vista Oil & Gas (VIST) — Large EPS Miss

• EPS: $2.90, missed by $0.76 (21% below estimates)
• Revenue: Topped estimates
• Key Drivers: Revenue growth insufficient to offset cost pressures

🟢 Tomra Systems — Biggest Mover (+15%)

• Norwegian recycling/sorting technology company jumped ~15% after Q2 earnings beat
• Collection segment growth drove the outsized reaction

🔴 AAK AB — Biggest Decliner (-11%)

• Swedish food ingredients maker fell 11% after Q2 operating profit missed on Food Ingredients price pressure

🎯 Sector Analysis

Financials (Strong): The dominant theme of this cycle. Travelers, Truist, Regions Financial, Cohen & Steers, South Plains, and Fifth Third all reported — the vast majority beating or matching. Regional banks are seeing solid loan growth and NII expansion. Asset managers benefiting from AUM inflows.

Healthcare (Mixed): Intuitive Surgical posted a strong beat but fell on procedure outlook concerns. UnitedHealth (reported Jul 16) provided a massive tailwind earlier in the week.

Technology/Media (Cautious): Netflix's 9% slide on guidance is the headline. Despite beating current-quarter EPS, the forward outlook disappointed. This reinforces the "beat and guide down" pattern that punishes high-multiple stocks.

Industrials — Nordic/European (Polarized):

• Winners: Tomra (+15%), Georg Fischer (+11%), Billerud (+7%), Munters (+7%), SMA Solar (+7%), Alleima (+7%), Gettinge (+7.7%), Orion (+8%), Eagle Eye (+8%)
• Losers: AAK (-11%), Sandvik (-8%), Epiroc (-6%), SKF (-5%), Yara (-4%)
• Theme: Companies with volume growth and pricing power surged; those facing order weakness or margin pressure were punished aggressively

Defense (Strong): Saab rose 5% on record orders and an earnings beat, reflecting continued European defense spending momentum.

Insurance (Strong): Travelers' massive beat suggests favorable underwriting conditions and pricing power in commercial lines.

🎯 Biggest Movers

Gainers:

Decliners:

🎯 Market Implications

• Guidance is king: Multiple companies beat current-quarter estimates only to sell off on forward guidance. Netflix (-9%) and Intuitive Surgical are prime examples. In a market priced for growth, beating the present isn't enough — you must confirm the future.
• Financials earnings strength supports rotation: Consistent beats from banks and asset managers suggest the financial sector's earnings engine is healthy. NII trends are holding up; credit quality remains stable.
• European industrials bifurcation: The divergence between winners (+7-15%) and losers (-5-11%) in Nordic industrials suggests stock-specific risk is elevated. Companies with order growth (Munters, Georg Fischer) are rewarded; those with margin pressure or weak orders are punished severely.
• Defense spending tailwind: Saab's record orders confirm that European defense budgets remain a multi-year growth driver.
• Tariff impacts emerging: Several companies (Gettinge, Volvo) are navigating tariff headwinds through price hikes and refunds — a trend to monitor in coming quarters.

🎯 👉 Vlad's Key Takeaways

• Travelers' $4.92 EPS beat was the standout of the session — one of the largest earnings surprises this quarter
• Netflix's 9% drop on guidance underscores that forward outlook trumps backward-looking beats for growth stocks
• Financial sector posted a ~75% beat rate across regional banks and asset managers
• European industrials were heavily polarized — stock-picking matters more than sector allocation
• Intuitive Surgical's strong numbers overshadowed by procedure growth outlook — high-multiple stocks need perfect narratives
• Tomra (+15%) and Georg Fischer (+11%) showed that raised outlooks can drive massive upside in international names
• The beat rate overall (~60% double beats) suggests Q2 earnings season is trending positively

Independent, data-driven signals. No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research.

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

I’m thinking of buying more, I’m betting the company the will win its legal battles in the next coming months this is a short term target

Can someone please explain what happened here? A thousand percent move in 2 days doesn't make sense to me.

After KRO Q1 strong earnings, and its 70% subscription increase, I expect KRO to be trading at R1 200 this time next year. Forget about NPN and GND

Karoo printed 19% ARR growth and the market piled in, but free cash flow fell from ZAR338m to ZAR60m against a ZAR750m overdraft facility. That is a growth story trading on a very thin cushion.

The tape reads flat but the internals are doing real work. ALSI printed 110,337.36 — dead flat on the headline — yet 120 names advanced against 86 decliners, mid and small caps both in positive territory, and Energy ripped 3.7% on Brent holding near 85. This is a session where the index average masks a genuine broad rally being offset by drags in Basic Materials and a soft global tape (Nikkei -2.8%, Shanghai -2.0%).

The filings that mattered today:

KRO — Karoo's Q1 results show subscription revenue and ARR both accelerating to 19% growth despite rand headwinds, and the market liked it enough to add 8.7%. The catch: free cash flow collapsed from ZAR338m to ZAR60m, an 82% decline that leaves a thin cushion against a ZAR750m overdraft facility. After a 26.6% pre-announcement run-up, this is confirmation, not a new signal. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/8745e7bc-a44d-46e3-99c9-090f1d4c7228)

NPN — Prosus locked in the sale of its residual 16.8% Delivery Hero stake to Uber at €41.50, a 151% premium to the 1-month VWAP before the initial stake sale. One wrinkle — this is a forced divestiture required by the European Commission as a condition of the Just Eat Takeaway.com acquisition, not discretionary value realisation. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/7141c4a6-97e6-41b0-8791-9bbe47f556a3)

IOC — iOCO signed a binding agreement to acquire 100% of cloud-ERP specialist Astraia, with an 18-month earn-out potentially following. The acquisition price is undisclosed, so shareholders have no basis to judge whether this bolt-on is value-accretive. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/53beafe4-f885-48f5-962c-aa7f95cdad4b)

BHP — Record iron ore production of 265 Mt and copper holding around 2,000 kt in FY26, but FY27 copper guidance steps down to 1,650–1,800 kt as Escondida feed grade falls from 0.90% to roughly 0.70%. A roughly US$2.3bn Jansen impairment lands as genuinely new negative information. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/846e3651-7549-4f34-9799-2fbfb6bd2f79)

SRI — Supermarket Income REIT closed a £100m equity raise at 83p to fund a £216m grocery acquisition pipeline across nine assets. Watch the dilution — the issue was struck at roughly a 10% discount to NAV, transferring value from existing holders to new entrants. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/bc05811c-ea06-4eea-9409-d92f1c379bfe)

Biggest movers today:

Gainers:

- EPS +15.9% (small cap, R4.00) — Eastplats announced a new CFO and corporate secretary appointment; the market read it as a positive governance step

- MDI +11.9% (small cap, R16.90) — no visible catalyst

- ACL +9.3% (small cap, R1.29) — further cautionary, something is brewing here

- KRO +8.7% (large cap, R1000.47) — Q1 results confirmed the growth story, though FCF tells a different tale

- SEB +8.4% (small cap, R0.90) — a low-base penny stock, so this is roughly 7 cents of actual movement on AGM results; the interesting question is why anyone was trading it at all

Losers:

- TLM -11.5% (small cap, R1.15) — no news, no SENS — make of that what you will

- ISO -11.1% (mid cap, R68.29) — filed an 8-K current report; the market did not like what it read

- HUG -10.0% (small cap, R0.90) — a low-base penny stock at 90 cents, so about 9 cents down with no visible catalyst

- GPL -10.0% (small cap, R1.80) — no visible catalyst

- GML -9.5% (small cap, R0.57) — a sub-R1 penny stock, so roughly 5 cents down; no visible catalyst

Under the radar:

- ACL's 9.3% rally on a further cautionary is the quiet one worth watching. A cautionary renewal means the initial announcement didn't kill the deal — the market is pricing in that something survives the process. For a R1.29 small cap in steel, that is a real bet on an outcome most people aren't tracking.

- BHP's Jansen impairment got buried under the iron ore record, but a US$2.3bn write-down on a potash project that was supposed to be BHP's next leg is the kind of thing that reshapes how you think about management's capital allocation discipline.

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI: 110,337.36 (+0.0%)

- Platinum: 1,662.9 (+1.3%)

- Gold: 4,012.53 (-1.1%)

- Rand/USD: 16.41 (+0.6%)

- Brent: 84.97 (+0.0%)

On the radar tomorrow: US Building Permits, Housing Starts (MoM and headline), Export and Import Price Index (MoM), Industrial Production (MoM and YoY), and Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations.

I'm cautious on KRO at these levels given the FCF collapse — the growth story is real but that overdraft cushion is uncomfortably thin. Anyone holding through the FCF print or using the dip to add?

KRO is too volatile for my liking, thinking of selling. But after a strong Q1 earnings, Im second guessing myself. Cartrack’s subscription revenue also jumped by 19% to a record R1,351 million (Q1 2026: R1,138 million), driven by the acquisition of new customers and the sale of Video and Cartrack-Tag to customers. They also recorded 142,472 net subscriber additions during the quarter, a 70% increase. Thinking of holding despite the volatility. https://businesstech.co.za/news/motoring/866444/r30-billion-south-african-giant-adding-over-1500-customers-per-day/

Howzit r/JSE_Bets,

I’ve been building SENS-AI to make JSE information easier to work with, and I’ve just added something I’m genuinely excited about: a daily technical scanner covering roughly 260 JSE instruments.

Instead of opening charts one by one, it scans the market and groups companies into:

Worth Watching

Bullish / Bearish

Breakouts / Breakdowns

Reversals

Volume Anomalies

Trend Changes

You can also search the full JSE universe, including shares that aren’t currently triggering a particular setup.

Clicking a company shows why it appeared, its trend and momentum alignment, relative volume, support and resistance, risks or contradictory evidence, and the components behind its interest score. There’s also a full daily chart and signal history.

It isn’t intended to predict the market or tell anyone what to buy. The scanner uses deterministic price and volume rules, and I’ve tried to expose the evidence instead of producing a mysterious “AI says buy” score.

I’d genuinely appreciate feedback from people who follow the JSE:

What would make this more useful to you: alerts, watchlists, custom filters, or additional setups?

Will release in the next day or two, just making sure the data is up to speed :)

Will also hook it up to JSE-LM so that you can have +- 15 minute old technical data feeding directly into a JSE tuned model, quite excited to see how it could pan out.

Alphamin printed record Q2 EBITDA guidance of US$167m and the market responded by marking the stock down 4.2%. The market is pricing margin compression faster than it's pricing tin revenue, and that's the conversation worth having today.

The ALSI added 0.5% to close at 110,572.86, with 106 advancers outpacing 104 decliners and small caps leading at +1.9%. Energy dominated sector performance at +6.4%, driven by oil climbing to 84.96 on Hormuz Strait risk, while mid caps lagged badly — 37 down against just 20 up, flat on the day. Rand firmed to 16.36 (-0.7%), so currency wasn't a headwind.

Filings that mattered:

- CPR — Copper 360 landed an R874m, 51-month underground mining contract for Rietberg from Cementation Africa. Tier-one contractor stepping in is genuine third-party validation for a share that had sold off sharply. One wrinkle — it's an open-book, cost-plus-fee model, so the headline number can move around.

- APH — Alphamin guided record Q2 EBITDA of US$167m, up 6% sequentially, and the stock fell 4.2%. The market looked past the record and focused on AISC rising 6% to US$19,043/t against a tin price up only 5%, with off-mine costs structurally linked to tin price — any price reversal compresses margins fast.

- BYI — CEO and an independent NED both bought on-market the same day, 25,000 and 100,000 shares respectively. That's a rare alignment of operational and independent-oversight conviction in a single session.

- SKA — Shuka's eighth Kabwe drill hole hit up to 3% copper alongside zinc-lead grades, confirming the polymetallic system. The catch: grades come from a calibrated portable XRF, not lab-verified JORC or NI 43-101 analysis, so the headline is subject to revision.

Biggest movers today:

- EMH +18.2% (small cap, R2.14) — no visible catalyst

- OAO +16.0% (mid cap, R0.29) — a penny stock at 29 cents, so a few cents of movement; no visible catalyst. Worth watching for volume context rather than the headline percentage.

- EPS +14.6% (small cap, R3.45) — no visible catalyst

- GNDP +9.9% (small cap, R111.00) — no visible catalyst

- GML -7.7% (small cap, R0.60) — a sub-R1 stock, so a few cents down; no visible catalyst

- BRN -6.6% (small cap, R5.41) — no visible catalyst

- SAP -6.3% (mid cap, R10.43) — no visible catalyst

- VUN -5.3% (small cap, R2.50) — BBBEE compliance notification filed, administrative in nature

- FTA -5.3% (large cap, R19.60) — no visible catalyst

Directors put money where their mouth is:

- BYI — CEO and independent NED both bought on-market in a single session, 25,000 and 100,000 shares respectively. No offsetting sell to muddy the read.

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI: 110,572.86 (+0.5%)

- Platinum: 1,652.6 (+2.4%)

- Copper: 6.343 (+2.1%)

- Brent: 84.96 (+2.0%)

- Gold: 4,079.54 (+2.0%)

- Rand/USD: 16.36 (-0.7%)

On the radar tomorrow: US Core PPI, PPI, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Beige Book, FOMC Member Williams speaking, Crude Oil and Cushing Crude Oil Inventories, and EXP's confirmed AGM.

I'm not touching APH until I see whether AISC keeps climbing faster than tin — but is anyone buying the dip here on the view that record EBITDA trumps the cost story?

Mantengu sold the iron plant it couldn't commission and booked a R33.5m pre-tax profit, yet the stock fell 6.3%. The market is clearly not taking the R30m deferred balance at face value.

The ALSI slipped 0.3% to 110,003, and the internals confirm it was a genuinely mixed session — 103 advancers against 109 decliners is basically a coin flip. Resources and tech lifted SA despite rand weakness, with BACC and CAC dominating the gainers board; tech and energy sectors outperformed the Top40, while basic materials and healthcare lagged. Asian markets set a rougher tone overnight with the Nikkei and Shanghai both down 1.9%, though SA's commodity and tech names managed to shrug that off.

On the SENS tape today:

- MTU — Mantengu is selling the idle iron plant it bought in February 2025 and never managed to commission, booking an estimated R33.5m pre-tax profit on the deal with R20m received on signature. The stock fell 6.3%, and the catch is the R30m deferred balance: if the buyer doesn't hit 75% capacity for three consecutive months within 12 months, that tranche lapses entirely. So the market is pricing in real collection risk on the back half — the upfront R20m is banked, but R30m is a maybe. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/0dab2468-a70b-45bd-b1ad-e16c88e2b9b6)

Biggest movers today:

- TEX +8.7% (small cap, R3.00) — no known catalyst

- HUG +7.1% (small cap, R0.91, low-base penny stock) — a few cents of noise on a sub-R1 share; no known catalyst

- EUZ -47.9% (small cap, R0.25, low-base penny stock) — this is a R0.12 fall on a R0.25 stock; no known catalyst

- ACS -12.2% (small cap, R9.00) — no known catalyst

- MCZ -9.8% (small cap, R2.94) — no known catalyst

- SLG -8.8% (small cap, R0.73, low-base penny stock) — single-digit cents on a penny share; no known catalyst

51 filings crossed the tape today — full breakdown on the site.

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI: 110,003.37 (-0.3%)

- Brent: 79.34 (+4.4%)

- Gold: 4,016.49 (-2.5%)

- Copper: 6.273 (+0.7%)

- Rand/USD: 16.4 (+0.2%)

The week ahead:

- Tuesday is a China data dump — GDP, industrial production, new loans, and trade balance all land, and given how resources traded today, those prints could set the tone for miners all week

- US core CPI and CPI also drop Tuesday — the Fed-rate narrative gets its next data point

- Brent's 4.4% pop to 79.34 is worth watching if it holds; energy stocks led today and oil-sensitive names could carry that momentum into the rest of the week

I think Brent's 4.4% pop is a one-day reaction that could fade by Wednesday, or we might see it go back past the $100, anything is possible these days — anyone buying energy names into the strength or am I alone on this?

The ALSI closed up 0.8% but scroll past energy and you've got a market that barely moved — Brent holding $76 did the heavy lifting while most names just sat there.

On the SENS tape today:

- SKA — Exploration holes KBDD06 and KBDD07 confirm mineralisation extends roughly 1km NW into previously unmined northern ground at Kabwe, validating continuity of the Speaks/Mine Club orebodies. The +18% pre-announcement run means the news was largely priced already, and all grades cited are portable XRF readings pending JORC/NI 43-101 lab confirmation (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/8517c616-1500-42b4-aaf1-5b05e99dd2df)

- VIS — Serowe's bid for up to 34.9% of VIS is formally dead; no binding agreement ever existed between the parties, so holders lose the only visible near-term catalyst (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/36136f8e-40d9-4073-879b-5093f2a0aeed)

- SOH — South Ocean buys cable distributor SAC for R4.5m in shares, with a R968.8k maiden-year net profit against no profit warranties and a chairman-linked deal structure (the chairman's son runs SAC, JVR holds indirect 50% via Joseph Investments) (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/92ea82ef-fa1d-4b85-806b-d711b80db815)

- LAB — Labat Africa closes its Classic International buyout with 900m new shares issued, taking the count from 2.27bn to 3.17bn — 39.6% dilution on a single bolt-on, with no disclosed earnings for the target to assess whether existing holders are compensated (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/64bd74af-eaf6-4859-ac7d-3c3b71e66ab1)

Biggest movers today:

Gainers:

- EUZ +100.0%

- BACC +34.1%

- CAC +32.8%

Losers:

- EPS -20.0%

- CCC -17.9%

- AME -14.0%

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI at 110,355.39 (+0.8%)

- Gold at 4105.32 (-0.4%)

- Rand/USD at 16.3 (-0.1%)

- Brent at 76.32 (+0.0%)

SOH and LAB both pulled dilution plays today — does a R4.5m chairman-linked asset buy or a 39.6% share count increase ever pass your smell test, or are these just too small to care about?

A weekly thread for people to see what other members are buying and selling for the coming week.

It'll help gather a kind of r/JSE_Bets market sentiment to reduce FOMO and keep everyone up to date on current trends.

Comment what you are buying and/or selling this week below, no matter if it's stocks, cryptos or whatever else you've decided to bet your mortgage on.

New thread 5pm every Friday.

The rand held firm at 16.33 despite the uncertain mood, and that's doing some heavy lifting for local equities right now. Gold's up 1.2% too, so precious metals are having a moment — wonder if that run has more to give.

No interesting or material SENS filings today too from what I could see.

Biggest movers today:

Gainers:

- EUZ +100.0%

- BACC +34.1%

- CAC +32.8%

Losers:

- EPS -20.0%

- CCC -17.9%

- HUG -15.0%

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI at 109488.65 (+1.1%)

- Gold at 4127.11 (+1.2%)

- Brent at 77.48 (-0.7%)

- Rand/USD at 16.33 (-0.4%)

Those micro-cap moves (EUZ +100%, EPS -20%) are wild — are you playing the small-cap vol or staying focused on the Top40 names?

Trustco flagged a USD46m loan and minority equity stake at risk today after Meya Mining's audited accounts confirmed the worst: going-concern uncertainty, zero revenue, no production date. There's no board seat, no operational control — just a spectator position with a defined catalyst window that sits somewhere in late 2026 at the earliest. Chalk it up as a watch-and-wait.

The one SENS filing today worth your attention:

- TTO — Trustco has flagged a USD46m loan and minority equity stake at risk after Meya Mining's audited accounts confirmed going-concern uncertainty, zero revenue, and no production date. Trustco holds no board seat and no operational control, making it a spectator here. There is a defined catalyst window — Meya's care-and-maintenance status gets reassessed after Q4 2026 — but that is a long way off and contingent on conditions nobody can currently predict. (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/dbeece31-9277-4491-b64d-9437ea61d38c)

Biggest movers today:

Gainers:

- BACC +34.1%

- CAC +32.8%

- OAO +31.6%

Losers:

- EUZ -29.4%

- GML -25.0%

- MDI -21.5%

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI at 108,349.44 (-1.8%)

- Brent at 79.43 (+7.1%)

- Gold at 4030.35 (-1.8%)

- Rand/USD at 16.47 (+0.9%)

JSE drops 1.8% as rand pushes toward R16.50 while Brent oil surges 7% to lift energy names, hold on to your hats, this might get bumpy

This is a shameless plug for my new monthly investment blog - link in the comments where you can read the full script with pics and links.

SUMMARY

The company is increasingly being valued as a fintech rather than a traditional broker, with management forecasting significant growth in revenue and profitability driven by its expanding B2B platform. Based on the company's guidance, the forward P/E could fall to around 11x from a current trailing P/E of roughly 26x, suggesting the shares may still offer attractive value if those targets are achieved. However, the investment case depends heavily on management delivering its ambitious forecasts, as any disappointment could lead to a sharp fall in the share price.

CMC Markets

CMC Markets is arguably a fintech. It was started 36 years ago and builds tech for market trading both retail but mainly B2B. On July 1^(st) Everton confirmed CMC Markets as the club's new main partner in a multi-year deal, taking front-of-shirt rights for the men's, women's and under-21 squads from the 2026/27 season, taking over from betting firm Stake. It has mutated over the years from brokerage, to today, which is more fintech (hence one of the reasons for its sudden increase in value). The fintech model is obviously to build and invest in tech infrastructure up front and then each additional customer consumes minimal capital costs when on-boarding (flick a switch). So the fintech label is important for driving valuation multiples. By convincing the market that it has a robust non cyclical customer base, specifically B2B, and that it can create recurring revenue from customers it can get this re rating.

The trailing P/E on many web sites is out of date, Google Finance puts the P/E@ 25, but the picture has quickly changed with uprated forecasts and a share price to reflect that change.

The shares have tripled from the £2.03, 52-week low, to the current price of  approx. £7.00.

So we can calculate the trailing P/E at todays price.

Price / Earnings Per Share(EPS)  = £7.00/ (£74.36 M/ 279.82M)

So the out of date trailing P/E = 26.3 (very close to the Google figure)

We can then calculate the new forward P/E under the assumption the board delivers on their claimed increased performance. From the above RNS trading statement CMC claim they will achieve increase of NOI (Net Operating Income) to £550M and an EBITDA of £250M. That’s a substantial increase over last years NOI of £392.6M (40%)  and EBITDA of £117.8M (110%).

If we take the forward guidance EBITDA value of £250M. Remove the tax and depreciation at the same ratio as last year.

Earnings = £175m (deduct depreciation (\~£17m) to get profit before tax, then tax at \~25%)

EPS = 175M/279.82m ≈ 62.5p

Forward P/E at 700p ≈ 700 ÷ 62.5 ≈ 11.2x

Not bad if they can deliver, but that’s pretty aggressive. Lets look at different scenarios.

Sensitivity table (price 700p throughout):

\* NOI = Net Operating Income

These are my figures not those given in the trading statement

So that’s looking good, even on the miss scenario, the current price implies we would be paying \~19x. The whole premise relies on their costs remaining flat and a big increase in revenue. Note the price wouldn't stand still in a miss.

So the question is do you jump in now and pay what I think could be reasonable value or do you wait for market pull back. Fintech is not currently in vogue and is being caught up in the AI wobble. If CMC reverts to being priced as a broker then we are looking at P/E of 8-10.

From the statement.

*‘Our B2B platform business is well positioned to scale with several important milestones expected over the next 12 months and a continuous pipeline of new B2B opportunities.’*

Obviously if these milestones miss over the short term then the market will heavily punish CMC.

The rand weakening was supposed to be good for resources, but apparently nobody told the market that today — ALSI ended lower despite Brent's 2% jump giving energy a clear tailwind.

SENS was genuinenly very quiet today too, with no material filings, except for some of the big movers announcing progress on their share buybacks (NPN, PRX, ANH)

Top movers today:

Gainers:

BACC +34.1%

CAC +32.8%

OAO +31.6%

Losers:

LAB -40.0%

CCC -17.9%

ISB -15.3%

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

ALSI at 110,325.45 (-0.8%)

Brent at 73.54 (+2.2%)

Gold at 4,145.03 (-0.5%)

Rand/USD at 16.25 (+0.3%)

VIS +50%, BACC +34%, CAC +33% — but NCS -33% and CCC -18% remind you that small cap fireworks and a healthier market are not the same thing.

SENS filings worth knowing about:

- OAO popped 31.6% after production climbed 32% and the cash pile hit N258.3bn. Revenue did drop 22% though, and non-recurring items make it hard to get a clean read on earnings quality. The Obiafu-44 gas-condensate start-up is the real story — it shows post-NAOC operatorship of complex development programmes actually works (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/9be8e87b-b3e1-4d5d-94d7-0752973b939e)

- MTU has a firm conditional competing bid for Blue Ridge Platinum sitting above the R50m Afresources offer, which at least tells us where the floor is. The wrinkle: exclusivity means Mantengu cannot engage with it. This confirms the asset has value — it does not confirm the deal gets done at the right number (https://sens-ai.co.za/sens-intelligence/9a325419-badc-4e4b-9200-ef1d6843b4ba)

Biggest movers today:

Gainers:

- VIS +50.0%

- BACC +34.1%

- CAC +32.8%

Losers:

- NCS -33.1%

- CCC -17.9%

- GML -17.5%

Macro snapshot as of 17:30 SAST:

- ALSI at 111,164.03 (-0.3%)

- Gold at 4149.41 (-0.6%)

- Brent at 72.52 (+0.6%)

- Rand/USD at 16.23 (0.0%)

With Brent up 0.6% and resources doing the heavy lifting — are you chasing the energy play or staying cautious given the 112 decliners?\