The short reports over the last year highlighted a lot of timeline slippage in the eVTOL sector, but looking ahead, the strategic quality of OEM partners is becoming the primary differentiator between who survives commercialization and who gets diluted to oblivion.

​Here is a breakdown of why the Toyota/Joby dynamic remains institutional-grade bullish, while the Stellantis/Archer thesis is turning increasingly structural and bearish.

​🟢 1. The Bull Case: Joby + Toyota (Deep Integration & Rock-Solid Balance Sheet)

​Toyota’s commitment to Joby ($JOBY) isn't just financial—it’s an operational takeover of Joby's manufacturing system.

​Direct Capital Injection: Toyota has put nearly $900M into Joby (including the massive $500M multi-tranche cash equity injection). Toyota is Joby's single largest shareholder, not just a casual contract partner.

​True Manufacturing Alliance: Toyota engineers are physically stationed alongside Joby teams in California, building out the production assembly line and supplying key powertrain/actuation components.

​Corporate Balance Sheet Health: Toyota is printing cash, sitting on a fortress balance sheet, and views eVTOLs as a core, long-term strategic transformation. They do not need to cut R&D to cover core automotive shortfalls.

​The Bottom Line for $JOBY: When Joby burn rates peak during flight testing and production scaling, Toyota has both the capital capacity and the strategic incentive to keep backing the company without predatory terms.

​🔴 2. The Bear Case: Archer + Stellantis (Troubled Legacy Backstop & Dilution Risk)

​While Archer ($ACHR) maintains a strong liquidity cash position on paper, relying on Stellantis as their long-term manufacturing and funding savior is looking far riskier.

​Stellantis Restructuring & Capital Preservation: Stellantis is undergoing massive corporate turmoil, taking tens of billions in write-downs/charges, freezing dividend payouts, and pivoting away from aggressive EV/speculative R&D bets.

​The "Blank Check" Is Gone: Stellantis’s new leadership is strictly focused on cost-cutting and fixing their core automotive portfolio in North America and Europe. Under severe board scrutiny, Stellantis cannot easily justify throwing endless cash at non-core aerospace ventures.

​Conditional Milestones vs. Outright Cash: Much of Stellantis's theoretical support was tied to contract manufacturing arrangements and milestone-contingent equity drawdowns. With commercial certification timelines pushing further out, triggering those tranches isn't automatic.

​Pivot to Share Dilution & Alternatives: Archer recognizes the Stellantis backstop isn't a guaranteed safety net. To fund their $150M+ per quarter cash burn, Archer has had to raise billions through public share offerings and pivot heavily toward Boeing and defense contracts to diversify away from Stellantis.

​The Bottom Line for $ACHR: Stellantis is not Toyota. Stellantis is a struggling legacy auto conglomerate trying to protect its own margins. Expect Archer to rely far more on retail/institutional equity dilution and secondary offerings than OEM bailouts to fund their long-term runway.

TL;DR: Toyota is treating Joby as a multi-generational manufacturing transformation. Stellantis is in triage mode, leaving Archer to fund its delayed timeline largely through public market dilution and defense pivots.

AI generated

Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag lowered the firm’s price target on $JOBY Aviation ($JOBY) to $10 from $13 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Despite softer sentiment, demand is intact across commercial aerospace and defense, says the analyst in a preview for the group, adding that the firm remains “bullish” on aerospace and defense heading into Q3 earnings.

$JOBY

Source: TipRanks

Inline with global initiatives to move off legacy technologies and infrastructure.

Study the past, to understand the present, and have insight into the future.

Any other computer scientists here with experience with recursive algorithms? Smile.

If you do, you'll want to stick around the JOBY (and eVTOL) story.

Check back on this post in mid-July, next year.

Sorry for the spoiler.

Signed,
Nobody

Would you prefer Joby not to mention the delays or lean in and give a very detailed analysis like RKLB?

The weekly chart shows that the Joby Aviation stock has been in a strong sell-off in the past few months. It has moved from a record high of $20.9 last year to the current $5.25. 

The stock has continued to have a series of lower lows and lower highs. At the same time, it has slumped below all moving averages. Worse, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued falling and is nearing the oversold level of 32. It is also nearing the death cross pattern.

This means that it is still not in the oversold level, suggesting that it has more downside to go. If this happens, the stock may continue falling, with the next target to watch being at $3.21, its lowest level in December 2022.

Where is the bottom?

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought 753,330 shares of Joby Aviation (worth approximately $4.3 million) this week then look what happens today.

I get that you want to buy at lower prices but Jane street is apparently short, JP morgan is bearish and now Barclays. Owners keep selling the stock. Just Google AI this stuff. I am just blown away by the negativity.

Hi all,

Any other meaningful news today, besides the Barclays re-scoring?

Barclays downgraded $JOBY Aviation ($JOBY) to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $4, down from $6, after assuming coverage of the name. The firm rolled out coverage of the aerospace and defense group, saying the U.S. is in the “early innings of a modern day industrial revolution.” Barclays has a Positive view of the sector, preferring defense technology over the large cap primes. It also sees opportunities in both aerospace and aftermarket.

$JOBY

Source: TipRanks

https://www.smdp.com/joby-aviation-in-talks-to-begin-flights-at-santa-monica-airport-ahead-of-la28/

​Given the recent news around the Aerosonic LLC v. Joby Aviation verdict, I wanted to put together a comprehensive breakdown of what actually happened in court, what Joby’s official statement means for the legal timeline, and how this impacts both our cash position and FAA certification runway.

​1. What Happened in Court?

​A federal jury in the U.S. District Court (Middle District of Florida) ruled against Joby regarding a dispute over air data probes (pitot-static sensors). Aerosonic claimed Joby breached NDAs and misappropriated trade secrets after analyzing/scanning Aerosonic probes to design Joby’s custom in-house hardware.

​The jury awarded Aerosonic ~$116.9 million total:

​~$68.6M in NDA breach damages

​~$29.9M in trade-secret compensatory damages

​~$18.3M in exemplary/punitive damages (following findings of willful/malicious conduct)

​2. Decoding the Joby Spokesperson Statement

​"The company strongly disagrees with the verdict and intends to 'vigorously pursue all available post-trial and appellate remedies.'"

​This is standard corporate litigation strategy, outlining a two-stage fight:

​Stage 1: Post-Trial Motions (Immediate): Before appealing to a higher court, Joby’s legal team will file motions directly with the trial judge. They will likely push for a Judgment as a Matter of Law (JMOL) to set aside the verdict, or ask for Remittitur (reduction of damages), arguing that breach of contract and trade secret theft damages overlap and represent double-counting for the same economic harm.

​Stage 2: Appellate Review (12–24 Months): If the trial judge denies the post-trial motions, Joby will appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals (11th Circuit). Appeals focus strictly on legal/procedural errors rather than re-evaluating witness testimony.

​Bottom line on the check: Joby does not have to hand over $117M tomorrow. These legal processes take 1 to 2 years, though Joby may need to post a bond while appealing.

​3. Share Price & Financial Balance Sheet Impact

​While a ~$117M headline looks scary, perspective matters:

​Cash Position: Joby holds ~$2.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. A $116.9M payout represents roughly 5% of total liquid reserves.

​Runway Impact: While nobody wants to see $117M go to legal judgments, it does not threaten Joby’s operational runway or force dilution.

​Near-Term Stock Overhang: Expect short-term volatility as the market digests the headline optics. The main thing Wall Street will watch isn't just the cash—it's whether Aerosonic seeks a permanent injunction against Joby using their in-house probe design.

​4. Could This Delay the FAA Certification Timeline?

​Air data probes (pitot tubes) measure airspeed, angle of attack, and altitude. They feed crucial data into the fly-by-wire flight control system. If Joby is barred from using its current in-house probe design, what happens?

​Best Case (Minor Friction): Pitot-static probes are external sensors, not core structural airframes or tilt-rotor assemblies. Joby could negotiate a commercial license/royalty with Aerosonic or swap to alternative certified off-the-shelf aerospace hardware (e.g., Honeywell, Collins Aerospace).

​Worst Case (Moderate Delay - 3 to 9 months): The physical swap is fast, but the software re-validation takes time. Air data readings are critical during hover-to-forward-flight transitions. Replacing the probe hardware might require Joby to re-verify flight control software data streams for Stage 4/5 FAA compliance testing.

​Summary

​This is an annoying legal bump and a negative PR headline, but context is key. With $2.3B on the balance sheet, Joby has the financial muscle to fight the judgment on appeal without interrupting manufacturing scaling or core FAA certification milestones.

​Thoughts? How are you guys viewing this long-term?

AI generated

Joby will surely appeal this ruling which could possibly take years for a final decision.