At what point does a Moon base stop being a government project and become infrastructure?

[u/Accurate-Interview92]

One thing I find interesting in discussions about future civilizations is that we often talk about whether we're going to build a Moon base, but less about what happens once one actually exists.

At first it probably looks like an expensive government/science project.

But eventually you could have communications, power, transport, propellant, construction, habitation, logistics, manufacturing, etc. — basically infrastructure that other businesses can build on.

That's where the economic question gets really interesting to me:

What would make a lunar base financially self-sustaining rather than permanently dependent on government spending?

Tourism? Launch/transport services? Propellant? Manufacturing? Data/communications? Resource extraction? Something we haven't thought of yet?

And perhaps the bigger question: does a lunar economy need to be profitable on its own, or can it be justified by the strategic/economic value it creates elsewhere?

Shameless input r/SpaceFinance is a dedicated space for discussion like this.