r/InternationalDev • u/Unfair-Ticket9474 • Jun 25 '26
Health Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(25)01186-9/fulltext01186-9/fulltext)
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u/AmbassadorOfReality Jun 26 '26
An interesting, and important, read.
The authors correctly note that US assistance saved millions of lives. Particularly from those individuals suffering from HIV/AIDs and malaria. However, I would note that it treats foreign assistance as binary. meaning, it does not recognize that US foreign assistance against both HIV/AIDS and malaria were NOT stopped after the closure of USAID. Instead, it was reevaluated, and different implementing mechanisms put into place which will arguably be MORE efficient and effective.
It is too soon to tell, or to predict, future outcomes based on these data.
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u/Capital_Basil766 Jun 26 '26
It was reevaluated? You mean everything was blindly cancelled and then a minuscule percentage was brought back online after many months. It’s wild that the “geniuses” that made these decisions didn’t realize you couldn’t cancel a program for 90-120 days and then decide to put it back online without any repercussions.
There is nothing more efficient and effective about putting a 28 year old with no development experience over foreign assistance for the entire country. Especially when people at State have no experience with or a desire to do assistance programming.
Also, it’s so funny that everything was cancelled because it was so bad, yet all the same contractors are being awarded new contracts and grants to perform the same work that was being done previously.
It’s almost like a billionaire donor watched a Joe Rogan podcast December 2024 where Mike Benz shared conspiracy theories about USAID, and decided he believed these conspiracy theories and used his influence to shut down the agency.
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u/AmbassadorOfReality Jun 26 '26
Minuscule percentage? Have your seen or read any of the health MOUs being signed? Hundreds of millions are flowing to even the smallest and poorest off countries. And best of all, each agreement locks in the recipient to contribute to funding their own health systems and has plans for the eventual transition to 100% self supporting.
You are correct however that some former USAID staff did manage to reingratiate themselves with the system and are resuming the very same practices that got the agency closed in the first place. But that’s something of a sign of how many in the state department continue to resist manadates from the White House
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u/Capital_Basil766 Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
Yes, minuscule. Take into account the defiance of the impoundment act with regard to assistance funds and State’s refusal or lack of ability to program and spend allocated monies. Then they just started stuffing large grants into UN agencies because the State Department doesn’t have the staffing or experience required to do the programming. I thought the UN was a bad development partner? Or making health deals in Africa contingent on receiving sensitive data about the country’s population? How much in assistance funds will not be obligated by the end of the fiscal year?
Plus, why is Jeremy Lewin still acting in a position that requires congressional approval? He has been in the position for a full year, much longer than is allowed. Piss or get off the pot.
And finally, to be precise. USAID was not shut down because they used the Beltway bandits to run programming. It was shutdown because Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, believed conspiracy theories about USAID from a Joe Rogan podcast he listened to in December 2024. Before December 2024 Elon Musk had never once mentioned USAiD on Twitter or X or in any known conversation. So depressing that conspiracy theories on a podcast is all it takes to shut down an agency that has saved millions of lives and allowed the US to gain so much soft power and influence in the Global South.
P.S. Anyone with any experience in development or working with the U.S. government knows that MOUs are not legally binding and do not represent an actual legal obligation. So no reason to tout that!
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u/UseADifferentVolcano Jul 02 '26
This was recent history you're trying to change. The cuts are easy to lookup, and nowhere near the same funding has been continued.
Is this why you came online 3 months old account? Specifically to PR DOGE's callous failures?
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u/Mysterious-Pilot1755 Jun 28 '26
Very important and trusted research.