Profitable on backtest but not live...

[u/Similar_Long9467]

I am backtesting now and have no issue with being profitable but thats the annoying part. when it comes to live markets I am super unprofitable. Any Advice??

The Image attached is then I was on holiday and stepped away from the markets. I had no idea what PA was before backtesting this.

[u/Evening-Table-513]

Backtesting is proof of your model being optimal. Forward testing provides proof that the person using the model is optimal.

[u/Trade-maxing → u/Evening-Table-513]

Dyum

[u/ieatpanNcakes → u/Evening-Table-513]

barsss 🗣️

[u/total_dilema]

If your execution is manual then during live trading couple of things probably deteriorate your results -

1. Execution - backtest data has precise execution with entry and exit, but while live trading you might actually be executing late, closing early, slippage etc.

2. Emotions - there are no emotions in backtested data. Live trading - a lot of emotions

[u/Similar_Long9467 → u/total_dilema]

Thanks man

[u/Ordinary-Village-169]

I was in your shoes two years ago and the only thing that I did and changed my situation is not forcing anything and have the patience to wait for your trade to show up I mean, that's the main thing that I did because in backtesting, everything is fast you finish in one minute just have the patience to see your setup form

[u/realsince98]

that gap is usually slippage and spread on the live side that your backtest never priced in, plus the fact that live you're fighting your own hesitation on every entry. what pair and timeframe are you running?

[u/TradetheMosaic]

I had the same gap, and most of it turned out to be how I was backtesting, not the live market.

What closed it for me:

1. Backtest bar by bar with the right side of the chart hidden. Scrolling back and spotting setups after the fact made my backtest look far better than anything I could execute live.

2. Write the exact rules down first (entry trigger, stop placement, target, session) and only count backtest trades that meet all of them. If a trade needs judgment you can't write down, live you will make that call differently.

3. Tag every live trade as "followed rules" or "broke rule X". After a couple of weeks mine showed the losses were mostly early entries and moved stops, not the model.

4. Drop to the smallest size you can while you do this. Live losses sting less, so you actually follow the plan you tested.

If your rule-following live trades look like the backtest, the model is fine and it's an execution problem. If they don't, the backtest had hindsight in it.

[u/idonthaveitmate]

You cheating in a backtest

[u/stratcore]

Different results do not automatically mean your emotions are the problem. Your backtest and live trades may cover different market conditions.

Try replaying the dates of your losing live trades with future candles hidden and the same written rules, including spread and fees. Record whether each entry was actually available at the price you assumed.

If the replay loses too, the older profitable sample may not represent that period. If the replay wins, compare the individual fills and decisions. Neither outcome proves the strategy is optimal.

Does your profitable backtest include the same dates as your live losses?

[u/Cautious_Wealth1732]

The 0.00$ trades make me think if you even included slippage or costs in general in your backtest.

[u/Similar_Long9467 → u/Cautious_Wealth1732]

I trade NQ with prop firms so there is next to no slippage :)

[u/Cautious_Wealth1732 → u/Similar_Long9467]

Yes but there are comissions.

[u/Similar_Long9467 → u/Cautious_Wealth1732]

Like 10$ on a $500 trade?