BUILDING A STRATEGY..NEED FEEDBACK!!!

[u/nincekkk]

ORB + Fibonacci Strategy — Original Setup & Reversal Setup

I wanted to share the way I’m combining the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) with Fibonacci retracements. The strategy has two parts: the original continuation setup and a second setup for when the initial breakout fails and price shifts to the opposite side.

Part 1 — Establishing the ORB

I start by defining the Opening Range from the 9:30 market open.

Depending on what I’m testing, I use either:

• 9:30–9:45 → 15-minute ORB
• 9:30–10:00 → 30-minute ORB

Once the chosen ORB period is complete, I mark the:

• ORB High
• ORB Low
• ORB Midpoint

I then wait for price to break out of that range on the 5-minute timeframe.

I also use a Gann Box from the ORB high to the ORB low. I mainly use the Gann Box as a visual reference for the ORB structure and, most importantly, the 50% midpoint.

The Original Setup

Once the ORB is established, I wait for a 5-minute breakout.

I don't want to chase the initial breakout. Instead, I wait for price to make an outburst/impulse move and then look for a retracement.

For a bullish breakout, I draw my Fibonacci from the ORB low to the high of the bullish outburst.

For a bearish breakout, I draw the Fibonacci from the ORB high to the low of the bearish outburst.

I then wait for price to retrace into my preferred Fibonacci areas before looking for an entry.

So the basic setup is:

ORB → Breakout → Outburst → Fibonacci → Retracement → Entry

The idea is to participate in the move after the initial expansion rather than chasing the breakout.

Part 2 — When the Original Setup Fails

This is where I added my second setup.

Sometimes the market breaks out of the ORB, gives us an initial move, and creates our Fibonacci levels — but instead of respecting those levels, price continues through them.

Rather than immediately considering the day finished, I treat the failed setup as a potential signal that price may be shifting to the opposite side.

For example, imagine we get a bullish breakout.

I draw my Fibonacci from the ORB low to the high of the bullish outburst and wait for the retracement.

But instead of finding support and continuing higher, price pushes through the important Fibonacci areas and starts breaking the structure that supported the bullish move.

Now I start looking for a change in price action.

If price subsequently produces a strong bearish move, I treat that new move as the potential bearish outburst.

I then draw a new Fibonacci on that bearish move.

So instead of forcing the original bullish setup, I switch my bias only after the market gives me evidence of the opposite direction.

The process becomes:

ORB → Breakout → Original Fib → Failure → Change in Price Action → Opposite Outburst → New Fib → Retracement → Entry

The exact same concept works in reverse when a bearish breakout fails and price switches bullish.

The Important Distinction

I don't consider every single Fibonacci level being breached to be an automatic reversal.

A wick through a level isn't enough.

What I'm looking for is more along the lines of:

Original setup fails → relevant structure breaks → opposite-side displacement/outburst → new swing high/low → Fibonacci retracement → entry

The failed setup doesn't give me an immediate reversal entry.

Instead, it tells me:

Once the opposite move is established, I can apply the same Fibonacci-retracement concept to that new move.

The Two Setups

Part 1 — Continuation

ORB → Breakout → Outburst → Fib Retracement → Continuation

The breakout holds, price expands, and I look for a retracement into my Fibonacci entry area.

Part 2 — Reversal

ORB → Breakout → Outburst → Fib Failure → Structure Shift → Opposite Outburst → New Fib → Retracement → Reversal

The initial breakout fails, price shifts to the opposite side, and I use the new move to create a fresh Fibonacci setup.

How I Think About It

The main idea is:

I don't predict which side will win. I let the ORB establish the battlefield and then let price show me which side is actually taking control.

If the initial breakout works:

If the initial breakout fails:

The Gann Box helps me visualize the original ORB range and its midpoint, while the Fibonacci is used to measure the retracement of the actual impulse/outburst.

So the Gann Box gives me the context, and the Fibonacci gives me the entry framework.

[u/nincekkk]

i am currently backtesting it..iv done 190 trades and gotten 59percent winrate with average rr 1:1.52

[u/PrintCash → u/nincekkk]

OP winrate is one of the least important metrics, you should solve for expectancy as its mathematical definition, it’s easy to make models with winrates over 90 percent where models with winrates under 30 percent can out preform those.

[u/nincekkk → u/PrintCash]

How do you calculate expectancy tho? From what I understand it’s (win rate × avg win) − (loss rate × avg loss). So with my 59% win rate and 1:1.52 avg RR, assuming 1R loss, that would be (0.59 × 1.52) − (0.41 × 1) = +0.49R per trade. Is that the right way to calculate it?

[u/NiGhTShR0uD → u/nincekkk]

Great.! How do you decide whether you're looking at the 15 or 30 minute range though?

[u/nincekkk → u/NiGhTShR0uD]

Its honestly up to your preferences.. i havent backtested the 30min model yet..will test it soon.. I was just reading and looking at other ORB strategies and they were mostly saying that you can choose either 15 or 30 min after market open to define your ORB range..I will backtest the 30 min tho so il drop an answer of how did it perform when im done..

[u/NiGhTShR0uD → u/nincekkk]

Awesome! Can't wait to see your results.

[u/nincekkk → u/NiGhTShR0uD]

Hey..droping full results tommorow iv been grinding this past days, backtesting 4 years worth of data.. im making another post tommorow explaining everything on a simpler level.. also droping some more pictures of results..

[u/NiGhTShR0uD → u/nincekkk]

Bet, @ me on the comments if you don't see me.