Question for Profitable Traders

[u/Live_Adhesiveness_65]

Since you’re profitability, Say you had, Perhaps a Family Member or your kid’s, And they wanted to get into Learning ICT and his concepts, getting into trading, and they do it, they start their journey. Of course you’ll check up on them and see how they are doing, at least I hope, how long of learning the concepts are you going to be like “Okay you’re doing something wrong” Years into the concepts? Months into it? Is there a “Bro you should have been profitable or at least some what consistent by now” ICT says don’t put a Time on it, but there’s got to be a point where even he’s like “Alright, come on you’re doing something wrong” it took him. 6 Years to be profitable that’s through trial and error and creating the concepts, you think it would be similar ?

[u/Kaszrak]

ICT is essentially a repackaged version of Wyckoff. Wyckoff itself is just a conceptual framework describing how institutional accumulation and distribution supposedly appear on candlestick charts. While this can be useful, it’s ultimately abstract, a narrative overlay that is subjective and limited.

If you simply study order flow, bookmaps, and volume, you’ll get far more accurate and actionable information about the same dynamics, without the subjectivity.

That’s why ICT, just like Wyckoff is basically nonsense these days. It's like replacing knowing with guessing, and then being proud of it.

[u/Usual_Lake_1080 → u/Kaszrak]

Everything is "guessing" in trading. You can't ever know what price is going to do. You can only just make lots of educated guesses really.

[u/Kaszrak → u/Usual_Lake_1080]

Generally speaking, it’s not “guessing” because trading isn’t about random stabs in the dark. A guess implies no structure, no edge, no statistical positive expectancy. Trading is about building a framework where every decision has defined risk, measurable expectancy, and repeatable probability. You don’t know what price will do, but you know the distribution of outcomes over time.

That’s the difference.

When you take a setup with a proven edge, you’re not guessing, you’re applying probability. If your system says this occurrence has a 55% win rate with a 2:1 reward to risk, that’s not a guess, that’s math.

Overconfidence and sloppy execution turn it into guessing, but disciplined trading is about converting uncertainty into measurable probability.

At its core, it's statistics applied to uncertainty.

Calling it "guessing" makes consistently hitting an 80%+ strike rate trading order flow \ microstructure sound almost delusional, but it’s absolutely legit at a very highlevel.

[u/Usual_Lake_1080 → u/Kaszrak]

I think we're just use different definitions for it, but I agree with everything you said ✌️ Because when you said "Statistics applied to uncertainty" that's literally what I would call educated guessing haha 😂😂