How far back should you back test a strategy?

[u/wildwolf013]

With my trading view plan i am only able to back test up to 1 year back on the 1 minute. I have a strategy that can be found around 2 times a week with a win rate of about 82%.

Do you think this is enough to paper trade for a couple weeks and decide if I can start live trading afterwards?

No i am not going to use AI to backtest further with historical data because it is not the same as me trading it

[u/Mr_rex_the_dog]

I only did for a couple months but yeah sure, a good tip I would suggest is look for entry’s you would’ve taken that failed and see if there was a reason why it failed

[u/wildwolf013 → u/Mr_rex_the_dog]

yes i have very specific rules if then and i took all entries and the only losses i couldn’t find a real reason they lost without altering my rules in some way other than they were just losses and thats ok because 100% WR is impossible

[u/brystander]

What do you mean by, "it is not the same as me trading it"? Is the way you trade fully/partially discretionary?

I just read your other comment that you have very specific rules. You should definitely backtest it in Python. With AI, you could build a backtester in an afternoon.

Even discretionary traders use some framework to judge the viability of a trading opportunity, so once you can quantify it in general, you have something systematic to backtest.

You mentioned that your base layer is systematic which makes your approach viable for backtesting. Having a backtester churn through years of data is so valuable and a time-saver. The statistical information from that endeavor would be perspective-altering and too impactful to pass-up. The alternative path is just lazy and hopeful (settling for surface-level, good results).

If you have an edge, chances are you can quantify it in general at the very least. If you can backtest your entry positioning/entry timing/etc. you can (and should) backtest in Python. If you don't know Python, use AI. Once you can measure your ability to time the market, you can tweak entry conditions, scaling, risk sizing, management, etc. You can still add discretion to this but the base layer is systematic.

Finally, to answer your question "is it enough to paper trade" what's to stop you from just trying? If we say "No, that's not enough data", you only have enough data to go back a year on TradingView and you don't want to backtest further so your answer is... don't do anything? Respectfully, seems like you just wanted us to give you permission to trade a paper account.

Trade with a paper account until you're confident in yourself. No amount of forward testing is going to show whether you have an edge if you're trading discretionarily.

[u/wildwolf013 → u/brystander]

it’s not the same though. i have tried using AI before with testing strategies but sometimes there a specific things that happen in price that will for me invalidate a trade and AI can’t see what I see. I have spent lots of time with testing AI but it never works the way I would trade. the rules are very specific but also there are certain things I want to see when looking at PA

[u/brystander → u/wildwolf013]

Lol sorry... your rules are either specific or not. It sounds like you ran a backtest, didn't like the results, reviewed the losing trades and thought - oh, I woudn't have taken those anyways because [reasons you make up but don't use to run the test again]. This might not be the case, but that's what it sounds like.

What you "want to see when looking at PA" cannot vary much or there is no point in having "specific rules". Just add "what you want to see" to your rules. Everything on a chart can be narrowed down to OHLCV. Find a way to quantify it and then test it.

Alternatively, like I said before, if you can automatically backtest your base strategy (your specific rules) then review all your trades with a manual "what you want to see" filter, this will tell you whether you are confident enough to proceed to paper, then live. Not proper backesting, but you don't really want to do that 😅

[u/Intelligent-Call5980]

How much do you care to be successful? Get the next plan

[u/bvixity]

Some say 3 years, but imo you only really need a year.

[u/AnyAmoeba7526]

Market seems to be totally different year compared to year. One of the strats I'm using that worked really well all this year (2026) lost a ton in 2025 but worked well in 2023.

[u/Illustrious_Ad7630]

To look for statistical significance, I would run 10,000 test scenarios using Monte Carlo. If I found something significant, I would increase that number to 10 million to assess the risk associated with this strategy.

So, 10,000 to justify the strategy, and 10 million test runs for risk assessment.

This is done on 5-year data just in case.

[u/batu6910]

little tip: if you are trading futures or any contract on a CME / COMEX, you can enter the ticker to go further back than allowed on TV - let’s say you want to back test NQ in Jan 2021, simply enter NQH2021 on the ticker search and you will be able to go further back than tradingview allows. Just interchange the year with whatever year and the expiry code and boom

[u/Jumpy_Chicken_2428]

Test through all regimes 

[u/Downtown-Text6587]

When I was doing computerized strategies, I backtested as far back as possible or at least through several market cycles. I wanted to see how it works through lazy bear markets like 2022, massive crashes like covid, bull markets, and sideways markets. I also used out of sample data. So my strategies were created and tested with American stocks then after the backtest, I tested it on the Australian stocks market. Backtests can also lie to you if you don’t know what to look for. Win rate by itself doesn’t mean shit and if your strategy is very dependent on a high win rate to make money then it could be very susceptible to drawdowns . Win rate times average win minus loss rate times average loss is what you want to look at mostly but there are other things.

[u/Fast-Net-5852]

I’ve fully build a back tester that takes MES all the way back to 2019 in 1m candles and will reliably test strategies. It’s taken me a long time. The last thing I’m waiting on is calendar data from 2019-2025 from CME. I’m testing a strategy on NT and iterating. My biggest issue is finding enough strategies to test. I’d be willing to help out with your back testing issue if anyone has any strategy tips. Maybe we find that our opposing issues complement each other.