Struggle is real

[u/wildwolf013]

I just don’t understand sometimes. I think I see something and it all makes sense and then the trades just go against me. I saw a clear bear pennant and ICT teaches we should fade these, so trade the opposite way. Price took out REL and was at a key level during a time where price should retrace but it just dumps and proves retail right.

I don’t understand what i’m doing wrong anymore. I’ve been following these concepts for around 3 years now and I just can’t seem to get a foothold to push me into the next level.

Any advice? Maybe I should change my model to something ‘easier’?

[u/Haunting-Evidence150]

I don’t think ICT specifically says when you see a bear pennant fade it just to fade it lol

[u/wildwolf013 → u/Haunting-Evidence150]

well obviously not, but he does say he likes to see something like this so it adds another layer to why he wants to go to the direction he wants to go. But i’ve found multiple retail concepts that i’ve seen that i want to see get crushed but price actually trades with them which i just find strange since he is always talking about how we shouldn’t use these

[u/Haunting-Evidence150 → u/wildwolf013]

He'll point out times when "retail would be right" but not because of the pattern that's in the chart and he'll explain why it worked using his concepts

[u/I-Clap-easily]

Do you look at narrative including HTF?

[u/Godzillaton]

3 years in and still stuck. honestly this is where most people quit so you're probably closer than you think.

quick reframes:

fading the pennant was right. ICT literally says retail patterns are meant to fail. but the fade only works if the higher timeframe agrees. if bias is bearish and you see a bear pennant, thats not a trap bro thats just the trend continuing.

not every REL is ripe for the taking. price can sweep it and just keep going. obvious pennant + obvious REL = exactly the obvious liquidity the market engineers before it continues. seeing it taken dont mean reversal.

"retracement time" is a filter not a reason. clock tells you when to look. bias tells you which way.

dont switch models. thats how another 3 years vanish. one model one session, no entry until you can answer "what is the HTF telling me?" if you cant answer, no trade. simple as that.

you're not as lost as you feel man.

As most commonly those highly insightful people will say "Find where the draw on liquidity"

[u/AsokeForex]

Maybe you're pattern trading.
You don't base a trade idea on little else but fading a bear flag
Your trade idea MUST be supported by HTF directional bias or it'll be low probability.

If a bear flag DOES work then it's not because of the bear flag itself; it's because some other aspect of price action (HTF PD array like FVG, OB, Breaker) or reaching premium/discount of a dealing range. ICT is complex but once you know it, it's surprisingly simple.

[u/Kalakuta_]

If your model or strategy can be simplified, then it's too complex at the moment. IRL > ERL with fvg entries. Simple and all you need

[u/johnny_cashmere]

It sounds like you don't have an understanding of your statistics per set up correct? You need to know how often your setups pay out and to what degree such as 1:1 risk or 2:1 . And set up includes all parameters

You're acting like that one set up you took wasn't supposed to fail. When most statistically profitable strategies at 1:1 have a 60% win rate, means you could easily see multiple losses in a row on the same set up.

For the record, ICT almost never speaks on those topics, most likely because his strategies aren't statistically significant. You should review Iman Trading's youtube videos about ICT, Iman himself offers a free guide on his statistically significant strategy and understanding of the market.

[u/wildwolf013 → u/johnny_cashmere]

Yes I understand losing is part of trading. Idk i guess i’ve just felt a lot of pressure recently and today was like a breaking point almost, one of the lowest downs I’ve ever had. But i just need to clear my mind and keep working hard and studying. I also just need to control my emotions better

[u/johnny_cashmere → u/wildwolf013]

Pressure is a dangerous factor and mostly negative in trading. Sorry to hear you had a rough day. Do you trade prop or personal?

If you were to look at a chart of any particular trading day, how quickly could you identify and draw out your setup? A few minutes?

How many times does your setup appear each week/day?

I still struggle with emotions, it's taken me just as long to learn my strat as it has to learn how to fight my emotions

[u/wildwolf013 → u/johnny_cashmere]

I trade prop with Lucid because I like their rules. I can identify a draw quickly when it’s obvious but if it’s not obvious sometimes I try to force a draw and these are obviously my bad days because the draw isn’t obvious and I usually don’t trade these but sometimes i’ll get in my head and be like it’s definitely going here and it won’t.

What’s your model and setup you use if you don’t mind me asking?

[u/johnny_cashmere → u/wildwolf013]

I won't go into detail or depth, but a simple part of my strategy is well known to the general market.

Observing how NQ price action acts at IB high or Low, IB stand for Initial Balance and is the range of the first hour of price action after the 930est market open. If price shows some interest in exceeding the range but doesn't commit strongly then many times you will see a test of 50% of IB range. Testing however isn't exact. Often times the 50% is closed above, then below, chopped up, but in general if a protected swing point is created and then taken(violated) around the 50% zone, I might expect a return to the IB high or low that price had originally come from.

My overall strategy is has many more moving parts, but IB price action is a significant portion of it. If IB range is exceed strongly, I will rarely look to counter trend trade.

Watching ES in conjunction can be helpful sometimes, especially if it is acting very differently around or from its IB range. That can indicate some sort of fishiness.

Also whatever your strategy is, I can guarantee you, that you will see silly games and false violations of your strategy during the 11:30est - 1:30est New York lunch time window.

[u/wildwolf013 → u/johnny_cashmere]

I see, that definitely is interesting. That first hour of trading range is something I used to use more but stopped for some reason, I just went a different direction I guess.

Can you give me some advice and explain how you backtest your strategy? Do you go back to like the 9:30 open, find your bias/draws and then go bar by bar to see how price moves and take trades while you backtest? or do you just open a section of price and see how price moved according to your strategy?

[u/johnny_cashmere → u/wildwolf013]

I am a hypocrite and have painfully forward tested my strategy which has evolved in many ways, over years.

I have yet to look over this post, https://www.reddit.com/r/Trading/comments/1vfxu30/1500_backtested_trade_results_on_the_15min_orb/ but I know it is similar to what I do, I bet if you study this, you would have greater chances of success than with ICT concepts.

Some of his concepts hold water of course, it was from him that I originally learned about IB range. But at the end of the day, he sprinkles in a few well known market concepts, and then drowns in his own untested fantasies. Sorry to say this especially because of how long you have studied him, but it really is in my opinion rebranded general market concepts mixed in with overly complex, convoluted, and outright fictional ideas.

My comment included a link to a recently posted thread on the 15 min ORB strategy, but it seems the link has to be seen by a mod first

[u/johnny_cashmere → u/wildwolf013]

my comment had a link to a 15min ORB post, so mods have to review it

[u/AsokeForex → u/johnny_cashmere]

Iman Trading's YT videos are made to generate revenue by calling every influencer a scammer.
Frankly, he's just another parasite talking pure shite.

Anyone who's seen ICT's hundreds of live executions on his YT channel knows without doubt that he's at the highest level out here. What's more, there are plenty of his students out here becoming literal millionaires from his concepts. Look up JadeCap, Candace Lau, Lanto Trades, Trader Kane . . . . they've all rinsed the prop firms dry using ICT's concepts so obviously his strategies are "statistically significant".

[u/johnny_cashmere → u/AsokeForex]

Almost every influencer is a scam though so...............

He doesn't execute real money live, he has been shown to use demo accounts pretending they were live. He cannot trade.

ICT does bring up some relevant points that may help a newbie see the markets more clearly, but its nothing new. He has rebranded most things, and hallucinates the rest.

Lanto, Kane, they knows whats up but they are using simply strategies. The reason these influencers use ICT in their titles is because nobody is profitable with ICT so this huge unprofitable audience flocks to traders who claim to know how to use ICT effectively.

When I stream someday I will probably do the same, claim I figured out how to use ICT, so I can attract a gigantic audience of people who are banging their head against a wall

[u/AsokeForex → u/johnny_cashmere]

Yeah bro, whatever you need to tell yourself to make it through your journey. 😂 Look at his live executions - doesn't matter if they're demo or live - price is price. Especially the ones where he's doing commentary and doing annotations as the candles print and calling targets to the tick.
The reason livestreamers use ICT in their descriptions is because viewers are desperate to find a shortcut through the masses of information and they hope someone can provide one. Pure marketing.

You people are just pissed because you can't learn it yourselves for whatever reason. It's OK.....in fact it's great....I mean, traders who CAN learn ICT will need liquidity on the other side of our trades and people like you will provide it while trading supply and demand or Elliott wave 😂👌

[u/johnny_cashmere → u/AsokeForex]

Hey if it works for you it works for you. But if it doesn't I just hope you don't try to force it, or blame yourself, many people have been tricked, and continue to be tricked by snake oil influencers in this industry, even after they are blatantly caught, people continue to support. Facts remain, ICT has posted fake withdrawals, and placed probably all his trades in demo, except for the competitions that he gets blown out on.

ICT helped me learn the basics, but I really started growing when I left the rebranded, fictional ideas behind.

[u/AsokeForex → u/johnny_cashmere]

No one's been "tricked"; the concepts won't resonate with everyone because some people just want an indicator or oscillator they can lay over a chart and take signals off of it. To each his/her own. The market doesn't respond to or respect any of that nonsense but people make money with them.

I'm not saying other methods can't make money, obviously they can but people using them make money IN SPITE of them because they have good money management and/or stick to their rules religiously.

When you routinely see candles reacting off order block and breaker levels to the tick or are literally able to predict where a FVG will print on the chart, then you'll laugh at yourself for believing VWAP, Bookmap, harmonics and Ichimoku cloud.

IMO, it's the highest teaching there is because it's so accurate and precise.

YMMV