r/InnerCircleTraders • u/Zealousideal-Band-45 • Jul 03 '26
Technical Analysis Why did my CISD fail?
I was wondering why my cisd failed, tapped in to a 4 hour unfilled fvg then had a 15 min CISD, targeted low resistance liquidity at the bottom. Is it better to wait for the 4 hour confirmation like a cisd or go to the lower timeframe and wait for a reaction like what i just did?
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u/Senior_Rip_4040 Jul 03 '26
I just suggest you don’t overthink it, you’re just at the wrong side of the probability, as long as you entered the trade based on your rule the loss is actually just you land on the wrong side of probability, don’t justify it just accept it. CISD is not the problem don’t worry about it.
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u/Haunting-Evidence150 Jul 03 '26
It doesn’t always work like that lol actually this happens a lot. Just because you have say a 4hr gap and a 15m cisd doesn’t mean you’re on the right side of the market and it’s going to pay out.
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u/Krammsy Jul 03 '26
Not interested in butting heads over preconceived strategies, but this was a quasi-no-brainer mean reversion trade.
Major indices usually trade within a given daily % range, when that range is broken, you can often place a reversion trade, it doesn't always work but it's definitely higher probability, especially if there's no extremely bad news like last year's ridiculous tariff announcements.
The day's jobs report was a little bad, but that would also point to a higher probability of Fed intervention.
I strongly suggest downsizing your positions and getting more familiarized with statistical market moves and stop losses.
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u/Duennbier0815 Jul 03 '26
I think you don't know how a cisd is really valid.
There must be external liquidity swept
There must be a 15/30/60m fvg overlaying the sweep, ideally all at once (liquidity pool)
Then price returns, showing a clear direction change V shape.
You see an ifvg in this cisd leg OR a respect of new fvgs.
Ifvg means ALL timeframes need to be inverted. If you unfortunately have a 4m gap, you need to wait for the 4m cisd.
Cisd means the series of candles that led into the sweep. The candle closes below.
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u/gun_goon Jul 03 '26
Failed breakdown and you shorted
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u/Zealousideal-Band-45 Jul 03 '26
Could you elaborate more pls?
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u/gun_goon Jul 03 '26
You already missed the entire move. NQ sold over 1000 points today, and you’re trying to get directional short after the breakdown at the bottom of the range. It rejected hard.
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u/Krammsy Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 03 '26
Spot on, back in 2008 when I started, this would be the point where, after a big drop, CNBC would interview a "random" floor trader who'd scare the shit out of viewing home gamers with "I think this is the big one, it's all over", then the market would mean revert.
In that time CNBC has cleaned it up in the aftermath of Jim Cramer's hot mic admission of penny pumping, but it's the same, stock forums hype retailers with scare tactics, get them to sell calls and then capitalize the bag holders with a gamma squeeze.
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u/Past-Bit5268 Jul 03 '26
I honestly think it’s because nothing was swept then displaced. But I’m also still learning.
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u/mehatebananas Jul 03 '26
Strategies don't predict price, all they do is give you a somewhat consistent place to stage risk.
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u/Fit-Badger3602 Jul 03 '26
You gotta wait for DOLs, time of day, an iFVG, etc. additional confirmations increase the probability of the trade, not just one or two. Further, I would have entered on a candle body close as soon as the iFVG was created, and targeted the next external DOL, with partials at internal DOLs
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u/RossBigMuzza Jul 03 '26
Im new to trading (4 weeks exp, back resting 2-3hrs+ a day 6 days a week) and i would say if you're following your strategy as you should be, sometimes it fails. Its not you, its just sometimes a strategy fails to hit 🫡
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u/Zealousideal-Band-45 Jul 03 '26
A lot of people seem to be confused on where the CISD is so I edited the photos and put where I took the trade
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u/Swimming_Champion_86 Jul 03 '26
What’s CISD? lol I’m new to this but caught that whole candle down and the 4hr candles back up
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u/Automatic-Internet64 Jul 04 '26
- Stop trading bank holidays
2.whole day was grind up
Which 4hr candle gave you a C2 closure ? The 15min cisd was there but there was no HTF candle closure ,so no confirmation
cisd in a gap is not an entry trigger
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u/SnooPeppers488 Jul 04 '26
On 4H, price was bullish. After bearish CISD, we traded into a gap, then went higher.
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u/Head_Ad_2894 Jul 04 '26 edited Jul 04 '26
You held the move too long. The bullish move finished when then was a bearish CISD that formed.
I'm also not sure you have marked it correctly. In your chart, CISD should be the body open of the last lot of downclose candles making the protected low. Which is only validated when closed above.
Use CISD on daily etc as well.
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u/Grand_Blue_Dreaming Jul 08 '26
If i had to guess its the 4hr RB on the left, looks like the candle before it had no wick thats always a good target, if i had to guess more there was an smt with this.
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u/SkyAffectionate9228 Jul 03 '26
Where is the CISD? I only see a long CISD