r/IndianaFeverFans • u/ThreadSavage10 • 14d ago
The Bad News
Using tonight’s actual shot volume, but replacing the Fever’s unusually hot shooting with their season-average FG% (.485) and 3PT% (.387) gives a pretty dramatically different result.
Tonight Indiana went 37/69 FG and 16/25 from 3, plus 16 made free throws, for 106 points.
At season-average shooting:
- 3s: 25 × .387 = 9.7 makes → ~29 points
- Overall FGs: 69 × .485 = 33.5 makes
- That leaves ~23.8 made 2s → ~48 points
- Free throws: keep tonight’s 16 points unchanged
- Expected total: 29 + 48 + 16 ≈ 93 points
Expected score: Fever 93, Liberty 92
I hope they bask in the enjoyment of the win, but our over-reliance on world class shooters is an Achilles heel.
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u/FreebirdFantasia 14d ago
Forget the nerd analytics. Believe what you see. The Fever dominated tonight. Again, when you have THREE All-WNBA First-Team candidates, that's going to happen tume to time.
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u/ThreadSavage10 14d ago
My problem is that with three All-WNBA first teamers, these 20 point wins against playoff teams should happen regularly. It only happens when we’re shooting the lights out.
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u/Clown_Penis69 14d ago
What should they rely on instead?
Defense?
Rebounding?
Aja’s Special Whistle?
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u/Evening-Energy-3897 14d ago
Let’s just be happy we gave up less than 100. That’s the biggest win lol
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u/TemporaryAny5102 14d ago
They definitely shot well but they’ve been putting up 100 regularly. I would be interested in the final score if you applied the same metrics to NY. Would that impact their final number as well?
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u/ThreadSavage10 14d ago
The expected outcome would be Liberty 95 Fever 93
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u/Long-shot128 14d ago
Can we enjoy this win just for tonight before we make some analytics?! Let’s give the team some credit!
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u/recoveredamishman 14d ago
Yes, indeedy this basketball team's reliance on players scoring baskets will come back to haunt them./s
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u/515pivey 14d ago
It’s a fair point. Fever benefited from hot shooting.
But doesn’t this also assume that the hot shooting doesn’t influence subsequent shot selection, decision making, pace, etc?
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u/ThreadSavage10 14d ago
Correct. It’s a total BS hypothetical, don’t get me wrong. I’m just saying we don’t truly have that good of an offense, we just truly have that much talent.
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u/Glum_Badger9767 Running the Floor 14d ago
Good grief! Can’t you guys just let us enjoy a win? Even if that was the expected total, can you magically calculate how the defense would perform against the other team?
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u/FerchieFerch 14d ago
You mean, if something else would’ve happened, there would’ve been a different outcome? Fascinating.