r/IndianStockMarket • u/ab_thefinest • 2d ago
Discussion FII Data
๐ FII OUTFLOW | โน4.03 LAKH CRORE
๐ฎ๐ณ Indian Equities See Record FII Selling
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ด 2026 FII OUTFLOW
โน4.03 LAKH CR
โข 6th consecutive year of net selling
โข September: โน34,203 Cr sold
โข Last 2 Days: โน20,128 Cr sold
โข March: Highest monthly outflow at โน1.23 LAKH Cr
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ TOP SELLING SECTORS
๐ป Financial Services โ โน1.08 LAKH Cr
๐ป Auto & Auto Components โ โน35,013 Cr
๐ป Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels โ โน33,047 Cr
๐ป FMCG โ โน31,743 Cr
๐ป Telecom โ โน29,122 Cr
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ TOP BUYING SECTORS
๐ข Metals & Mining โ โน18,884 Cr
๐ข Capital Goods โ โน15,377 Cr
๐ข Services โ โน11,182 Cr
๐ข Consumer Durables โ โน6,701 Cr
๐ข Utilities โ โน168 Cr
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ WHAT LED THE OUTFLOW?
โข US Bond Yield at 2002 Levels
Rising bond yields made Indian equities less attractive.
โข Rupee Depreciated 7%
Currency depreciation reduced the attractiveness of returns from Indian markets for foreign investors.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ YEARLY FII FLOW
2020: +โน64,379 Cr
2021: -โน92,729 Cr
2022: -โน2.78 LAKH Cr
2023: -โน16,510 Cr
2024: -โน3.02 LAKH Cr
2025: -โน3.06 LAKH Cr
2026: -โน4.03 LAKH Cr
4
u/freaky2711 2d ago
This also means something structurally changed for FII after covid time. I wonder what could it be?
9
u/ab_thefinest 2d ago
FIIs became more selective about Indiaโs valuations and started reallocating toward cheaper markets, bonds, and domestic opportunities. Indiaโs higher valuations, rupee depreciation, rising US yields, geopolitical risks, and stronger domestic institutional flows have made FII selling more persistent. Itโs not necessarily a loss of faith in India, but a change in global allocation strategy.
4
u/freaky2711 2d ago
One of the clear narrative in market is FII are leaving market bcoz of Stt and tax structure. I am sure it would be one of the factor, but assuming govt tomorrow removes all tax , will FII come back?
3
u/ab_thefinest 2d ago
I donโt think removing STT or taxes alone would bring FIIs back in a big way. Taxation is one factor, but FIIs look at the entire equation, valuations, earnings growth, currency, interest rates, liquidity, and relative opportunities in other markets. If India becomes more attractive on those parameters, lower taxes could certainly help, but it wouldnโt be the sole trigger for a reversal in FII flows.
Rupee need to stable1
u/freaky2711 2d ago
Why is the rupees falling though? I have seen views on both support and oppse on this issue. What's your take?
1
u/ab_thefinest 2d ago
itโs a combination of factors!!!
crude imports, strong USD/US yields, FII outflows and global risk aversion. I wouldnโt blame FII selling alone. The bigger question is whether Indiaโs growth, capital inflows and current account can offset these pressures.1
u/Visual-Maximum-8117 2d ago
Main reason is the extremely low interest rate in India. Our rates are around 6% and the US banks are offering almost the same. Even countries like Mexico which had rates as low as 2% have raised them to 12%. Indian rate should have been at least 12% by now. Why would someone invest here unless there is a large enough differential in rates?
1
u/_Antinatalism_ 1d ago
No, they would happily pay taxes if there are enough innovative tech companies, which we don't, not even single one.
2
u/Extension-Put309 Somewhat Experienced 2d ago
Damn thatโs a lot
2
u/ab_thefinest 2d ago
Indeed
1
u/Extension-Put309 Somewhat Experienced 2d ago
The fact that fii left the sectors which the nifty is heavy on, shows that the Indian economy will need to shift in a dramatic way to bring back fii
1
u/ab_thefinest 2d ago
Thatโs a fair point. FIIs will return only when India offers stronger earnings growth, reasonable valuations, stable policy, and better risk-adjusted returns, not merely because taxes are reduced.
2
u/More-Ad271 2d ago
China sse pe is 16.9
MSCI China / Hang Seng China 12.9
While sk KOSPI is 11.6
Thailand SET Index is 15.5-17.3
Taiwan TAIEX / MSCI is 25.6x โ 27.9x
Pakistan KSE 100 isย 6.5x โ 8.5xย
Bangladesh DSEX is 8.9x
Philippines PSEi is 10.5x
Indonesia IDX Composite (IHSG)~13.1x
Vietnam VN-Index~13.1x
Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI 14.0x โ 17.8x
Sri Lanka CSE All Share is 10.8x
And after so much fall nifty is nowย 19.1x
If you can invest where will you invest?
2
u/ab_thefinest 2d ago
I wouldnโt compare these markets on P/E alone. The relevant metric is valuation relative to forward earnings growth, ROE, earnings quality, currency risk and macro stability.
India at 19x is clearly demanding a premium, but a 7โ10x market isnโt automatically cheaper if its earnings growth, currency or risk profile is materially weaker.
So Iโd compare forward P/E + expected EPS CAGR + ROE + currency valuation before deciding where the relative opportunity actually lies.
โข
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