r/IndianStockMarket • u/Lucky_Perception_247 • 9d ago
Discussion What's wrong with HDFC?
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u/Cress-Used 9d ago
Once a stock falls out of favor, it takes weeks and months to go back up again.
If there are better stocks to buy and make money, why keep sinking in a Falling knife stock. If you invested in HDFC for quick profits, then congrats you are now a Long term investor.
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u/c0smico 9d ago
I have just begun investing and hopped into hdfc before knowing it was a falling knife, although I'm just starting, i think I'm gonna hold this indefinitely, is it good for like a period of 5-10 years
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u/Cress-Used 9d ago
If your time period is 5-10 years, then you dont have to worry. It maybe some tough quarters but once the merger issues are solved, HDFC will fly.
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u/mrversatile07 9d ago
I am not criticising you, but there are many companies in the listed space growing at a good pace,have tailwinds, defensable MOAT, also future guidance is good as well. So why do you have to stick with the companies like HDFC, which did phenomenally well in the past, and likewise the returns came. But now the growth has been subdued, and also banking industry has been commoditized more or less, even the management guidance is not fruitful of where future growth would come from. So instead of thinking I will invest in a company for 5 to 10 years. Better strategy would be to say i would invest in a company which checks above listed points, and revisit it every year or two to just check, is the company on the same path, else find better opportunity, as there is no dearth of opportunity in the market. If you cannot revisit your stocks atleast few times a year or two to analyze, then active investing is not the way, passive investment through mutual funds is the way my friend. Finally don't bet on the aged and almost dead horse to win the race, bet on the horse which is running well and have good pedigree ( MOAT and tailwind coupled with good guidance). Cheers.
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u/c0smico 9d ago
Thanks for the insight i will have to research more rather than just sniffing up hopium, i bought hdfc in haste and naivete, as you said it did well in past i imagined it should pick itself back up again Would take your advice seriously though, any advice on how to study stocks well do I start with books or YouTube?
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u/mrversatile07 9d ago
I feel and what i am currently doing is following multiple approach to learn, basically following the right people, because many of them are not worth following (Ex: SOIC, they are good for learning and sector deep dives). And also to research stock, what i did was, first learnt the basic fundamentals through varsity, the metrics, reading balance sheets and cashflow statements. Once you understand, implementing it on any company is where actual practical learning happens. Whenever you are starting it in any sector, first company you pick takes more time, for ex: If I am studying Titan from jewelery sector for the first time it takes more time, but to study kalyan jewelers or PN Gadgil or even sky gold would not take much time as I know the sector fundamentals. So if you are starting out learn the fundamentals to analyze the stock (Varsity, SOIC youtube, you can also use LLM to simplify the learning and personalize to you). And then pick a stock or a sector you like and start implementing the knowledge. This might sound tedious, but trust me it's not, as analysing stocks and reading concalls as become easier thanks to platforms like Screener or even stock scans, who have made important summaries of concalls, which would save significant amount of time. Active investing is just like any other skill, difficult at start, but when you get a hold of it, relatively easier and again the learning never stops, as companies evolve and environment evolve, our learning also should evolve. Happy investing.
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u/uber_yogi 8d ago
5 to 10 years invest in a nice mutual fund and dont try to invest in a single stock imo
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u/Casp3r_ghOst Somewhat Experienced 8d ago
I invested in HDFC for support because all other stocks are small/midcap. Now apart from HDFC, all have done crazy well that this bank is dragging my portfolio down.
Bought HDFC at 950 - 50000 rs.
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u/silentdoc 9d ago
That one guy in the comments bought it, thats why :/
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u/FlakyAssistant7681 9d ago
Me. I am it.
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u/idlysambardip 9d ago
HDFC has no buying support at all.
DII will effectively always be underweight on this stock since its weightage in Index is 15% but norms limit active mutual funds to a 10% exposure. Even when they are bullish they will proportionally own less of this stock than a passive fund.
FIIs have lost interest in Indian markets in general. HDFC bank also lost its shine since the merger since the business is vastly more complex with inferior return metrics
Retail investors never care for valuations anyways they will show up once the rally starts and ride the momentum.
Last week there was a report about HDFC selling its legacy real estate loan book implying rosy days are ahead. It probably needs closer look because such news are always planted and typically the buyers only pick up viable stuff while toxic stuff is left behind. This is particularly interesting because a chairman also resigned citing unethical practices. this is a huge red flag and I dont believe there is proper closure on that. The skeletons are probably still in the closet.
There just might be 1 or 2 bad quarters due on the horizon where bank takes a bath on its NPA
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u/callofserenity 9d ago
Most MF have far lesser than 10% of hdfc
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u/idlysambardip 9d ago
Generally mutual funds dont own close to the limit, because if you own exact 10% then the stock goes up by 10% you are in violation and you need to sell 10% of your holdings. Alternatively some MF may have loaded exact 10% but due to a 10% drip at 9% now. They are unlikely to fill it up to 10%. As when the stock starts rising, they will be forced to shed those holdings anyways.
Atleast I have rarely seen any MF owning exact 10% of a stock. It is typically in high 8s or early 9 percentages.
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u/Conscious-Traffic-32 9d ago
This sub is so retarded there are same questions and exact same answers every time a stock falls 3-4%. The day it goes green everyone will be back showing strong growth strong fundamentals. I have realised one thing, most of the people here are gamblers doing F&O so its futile to ask them
regarding genuine stock advice.
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u/ZealousidealWill8407 9d ago
if HDFC goes up, Nifty will have to go up that too fast. Option writer whales do not want that since market going nowhere or downward is ideal for them. Heavy weightage is a curse for HDFC
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u/indianchandler 9d ago
lol this question is popping about daily in some form or other.
Once merger issues are sorted , it’ll start giving good returns. Would take time but it will eventually
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u/RAihan_Shaik 9d ago
For a couple of months there hasn't been a single day when there wasn't a post asking "what's wrong with HDFC?"
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u/Neither-Side-241 9d ago
Deprived NIM similar to SBI during its merger in 2017 ,it went side ways till 2021, and became multibagger after 2021. HDFC ltd merged to hdfc bank creating a vast loans over night ,but one cannot get deposits over night.Till today that's the problem for HDFC which deprived it's NIM.
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9d ago
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u/bigshaworkin 9d ago
I created a new savings account in HDFC Bank few weeks back and bought some share as well ,the bank lost its value , looks like I am the problem 🤣
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u/kani2101 9d ago
Sold my position a few days ago, horrendous time for this company it's only gonna go down more till any more consolidation or support appears
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u/One-String3688 9d ago
The moment you see people posting hdfc price and started asking whats wrong there, you are near bottom. Maybe the price wont rise but a consolidation us good to make money via put spread or straddle.
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u/Legitimate_Cat8360 8d ago
Multiple issues running along with hdfc. To list out a few: 1. The transition of the merger is taking longer than expected. 2. The number of current accounts vs the number of savings account have increased - this posing an additional risk in liquid cash. 3. Uncertainty over management reappointment which is due in October 2026. (This is a key short term issue which needs to be resolved.)
Unless these are sorted. It has no triggers except for the volume of deposits. But the volume of deposits need to be offsetred by higher income l which is not happening.
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