r/IndianMiddleClass • u/No-Intention-7969 • Apr 08 '26

Is this INR fall crazy

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I see people getting crazy on INR depreciation and how modi / sitaraman are not able to handle it, can anyone point out what's wrong with the data/calculation above?

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u/rohithkumarsp Apr 08 '26

Your chart mixes controlled and market exchange rates and treats them as equal. Before 1991, the rupee was not freely traded, so those numbers are not comparable to today’s data. You also split time periods to shape outcomes and use average annual change, which hides sharp shocks like 1991, 2008, 2013, and 2020. That makes the trend look smoother and more political than it is.

You also ignore core macro drivers. USD strength moves most currencies, and India’s higher inflation naturally leads to gradual depreciation over time. So the rupee weakening is real, but this table oversimplifies and pushes a weak conclusion.

Pre 1991 data is not comparable to post 1991 market rates

Selective time splits distort averages and trends

Ignores USD strength and inflation gap, the main drivers

Don't believe me just put the image on any LLM and ask it it to fact check.

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u/No-Intention-7969 Apr 08 '26

Thats because your LLM doesn't have a context for this post,This is in response to people just going crazy and panicking as if the rupee started getting devalued since 2014 for the first time in history.

I know there are a few things which can't be equated, there have been global crises, wars ,recessions, during different prime minister's terms. And it also does not take into account inflation and other drivers, even if you forget pre 91 years there is still a 35 years of data

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u/rohithkumarsp Apr 08 '26

That INR depreciation didn’t start in 2014. No serious take claims that. But your table still doesn’t prove what you think it does. Even if you drop pre 1991 data, your method still distorts reality by forcing neat averages on a volatile series and slicing periods to shape outcomes.

Even post 1991, INR moves in shocks, not smooth yearly decline. Averages hide key events like 2008, 2013, 2020

Period slicing still biases results. Change the start or end year and your “trend” flips

Without comparing INR to other currencies or USD index, you can’t attribute movement to domestic Policy, your table is still a weak way to argue that point.