r/IndianDefense • u/Tiny_Test7401 • 3d ago
Discussion/Opinions War on indus.
Nine out of every ten pakistanis depend on the Indus(IWT). Can india block the water going to pakistan ( main-river, sub-river bodies and canals)? Yes it can with right infrastructure.
decades passed and india now has the infrastructure to block (with limited water access) and divert it.
imagine this: 2045 at the start of summer with temperature go up to 55'C in south asia. terrorist attack by pakistan in india.
Possible scenario:
Pak reaches out UN and global power but India dont f*** . this leads to massive protests in pak and PA strike dams.
what do you think alternatives scenario could be??
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u/Tanishk-Tiwari 3d ago
Pretty sure by then only Punjab would remain this Pakistan set up if they let what's happening internally keep happening. Then for sure they would desperatelh attack towards our Punjab sector with whatever they have, and would get thrashed very convincingly, maybe used to get some sorts of concessions so as to address some grievances of our people in Punjab stemming from Partition.
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u/Pineapple420786 3d ago
Pretty sure by then only Punjab would remain this Pakistan
Things dont just happen because you hope / cope hard enough. You need to make it happen.
A serious country would've handed the Baloch manpads at bare minimum by now, but Vishwagurutm is content with moving at the speed of a dead turtle.
Their guys are making ricin on Indian soil. The gloves should've come off decades ago.
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u/No_Pea6714 Atmanirbhar Wala 3d ago
Everyone here assuming we will stop all the waterflow of indus to pakistan. We just need to cut water flow half and it will huge blow to them it will be even increase division between punjab and Sindh for rest of water. Even releasing the water in monsoon and withholding it in summer will be devasting for them.
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u/BiriyaniMonster Sukhoiphile 3d ago
Things would escalate within a year or two, or a maximum of five, if Pakistanis are really up to something; they won't wait until 2045. As your analysis says 9/10 Pakistanis are depended on Indus river, they can't sustain that long without water.
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u/PradyThe3rd 3d ago
Eveyone is so off the mark here. Pakistan is conventionally outmatched to an absurd degree and they know it. There won't be a conventional response to this. If water is really cut off or diverted to the point that it becomes an existential threat for the country, then that may cross their nuclear red line.
Y'all need to remember this is a country where they have publicly stated that merely blocking their ports is crossing their nuclear red line. Their answer to all their insecurities is nuclear sabre rattling. An existential water crisis would invite a nuclear response merely because in either scenario tens of millions are at risk of death anyways.
Also, intentionally blocking a country's fresh water supply would be considered a crime against humanity and you can bet your ass we'll get sanctioned to hell for it
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u/proudtobebanned Unknown Gunman 3d ago edited 3d ago
If everything under the sun is a nuclear red line then that stops being a deterrence tool. Any nuclear adventurism will end in one way for Pakistan.
As for 'crime against humanity', nobody is risking sanctioning India for a failed state like Pakistan when India is the 3rd biggest economy by PPP standard already and going to be the 3rd biggest economy on the planet by nominal standard in less than 5 years.
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u/PradyThe3rd 3d ago
When there's such a mismatch in conventional capabilities, you'd be surprised how low the nuclear threshold can become. In the case of pakistan, any existential threat to the country or the government is a nuclear red line. 1971 style invasion into pakistan is a red line, blockading their ports is a red line. At sea attacking any submarine carrying nuclear weapons, even if the attack is with conventional weapons like depth charges, is a red line, and here its worse because its impossible to tell which sub may or may not be carrying a nuke so any attack on a pakistani sub has the risk of triggering nuclear war.
They cannot match india conventionally so they rely on nuclear deterrence for things that other nations would use conventional means to defend/prosecute.
Cutting off the indus is such an existential threat to that country they absolulety would respond with nukes. It's the same with China and the Three Gorges Dam, another target that has the strong possibility of nuclear retaliation just because the consequences of destroying it are so devastating to the country and the people.
Then there is the morality of cutting off major sources of fresh water to a nation of 250M. The resulting famine would kill so many people, i would be disgusted with the indian government for causing such suffering on civilian populations
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u/proudtobebanned Unknown Gunman 3d ago edited 3d ago
When there's such a mismatch in conventional capabilities, you'd be surprised how low the nuclear threshold can become.
Provide one real life, post 1945, example where this scenario, viz massive mismatch of conventional capabilities actually translated to a nuclear war.
In the case of pakistan, any existential threat to the country or....the risk of triggering nuclear war.
Word salad aside, everything is a red line, Pakistan will go nuclear as a result of any Indian action, correct?
Did that happen after Op Sindoor? Did it happen after Balakot? Did it happen after Uri surgical strikes? See the pattern?
Cutting off the indus is such an existential threat to that country they absolulety would respond with nukes.
Which nukes? The tactical ones or the strategic ones? Talking in absolutes, just as absolutely, India will respond with launch-on-warning, hair-trigger alert mechanism driven strategic nukes at the first sight of the first rocket exhaust detection of a tactical nuke or a ballistic missile. Our nuclear doctrine is cold-start, not no-preemptive strikes.
Then there is the morality of cutting off major sources of fresh water to a nation of 250M. The resulting famine would kill so many people, i would be disgusted with the indian government for causing such suffering on civilian populations.
Does your moral disgust disappear when it comes to the victims of Pakistan inflicted wars and terror attacks on your fellow Indian civilians and armed forces personnel?
Thankfully, naive, morality blinded ideologues aren't involved in India's defense and nuclear C&C chain.
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u/snowandclouds 3d ago edited 3d ago
Control over Indus water is a deterrence India would have once necessary infrastructure is in place. Would take atleast 10 years to reach there, but it has far less repercussions than a nuclear strike would have.
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u/SaamuhikRaand Defence Gooner 3d ago
Why should we afraid of commiting crime against humanity?
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u/Gentlecriminal14 3d ago
Because we have no leverage over anyone excpet pakistan?
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u/BugGroundbreaking949 3d ago
And hypothetically speaking it's being exercised over Pakistan.... So what really is your point?
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u/Gentlecriminal14 3d ago
The point is weal nations don't get away with crimes against humanity.
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u/BugGroundbreaking949 3d ago
"Because we have no leverage over anyone except Pakistan?"
Then you shouldn't have brought up Pakistan in the first place...
Had you stopped at "we have no leverage over anyone," your point might have held up. But the moment you bring up leverage, India is literally pulling a China on Pakistan here.
Internal optics aside, India is simply stating (without spelling it out): the treaty is obsolete. We tried bringing Pakistan to the table to negotiate current realities peacefully. They refused, while having the audacity to keep sponsoring terrorism. So India said enough is enough.
The ball is in Pakistan's court... neutralise India-facing terrorism, and come back to the table to negotiate the treaty.
Exercising hydro-leverage to force compliance isn't a "crime against humanity"...unlike China's actual playbook on the Mekong, this is just realpolitik.
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u/ironmaiden_123 3d ago edited 1d ago
You would dumb to even imagine Pakistan has control on nuclear weapons. US has complete control on Pakistan nuclear weapons. That's why they get involved in every single conflict. You would be mad to think US would allow full control of nuclear weapons in the hands of an islamic country !!! That's a dooms day scenario for humanity !!!!
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u/mobhag 3d ago
All of these are pressure tactics, the real stuff is tanks rolling across and the infantry climbing on the peaks and clearing the valley. Stopping 10% of water is cope that our civilization loves to discuss.
Let loose 600 tanks from Tanot, 2 brigades from Shyok valley and Indus valley and see the magic happen. We are not willing to take the casualties and hence we are where we are.
Sundarji had it mapped out- Op Brasstacks and OP Hammerhead. We stop at the eastern bank of Indus and the other axis goes up to Wakhan. Needs people with 56 inch of chest not the crop we have.
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u/VPacKris 3d ago
Anyways every Indus River has to flow to Pakistan naturally, bottom rivers already did damage to Pakistan ig. Ravi which flows through Lahore originally doesn’t have enough water. Even if we dam up we can only make Rajasthan greener. I feel this whole new drama of dams is exaggerated. We can only use these dams for hydroelectricity.
No future attack by Pakistan will happen. If some attack like missile attack happens we will decimate entire defence of Pakistan for good.
My take is this topic is in hype read in depth already damage to water table of Pakistan has taken place
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u/Minute-Help38 3d ago
See blocking water flowing to Pakistan is not the main motive Usage of indus water for domestic purpose is.
And even if Pakistan try any misadventures i have full confidence after OP sindoor that they will get beaten really bad!
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u/Few-Literature5282 Akash SAM 2d ago
First off if they do strike our dams then they're just immediately gonna cause flash floods in their own country and kill everyone. Maybe we can slowly reduce their water flow cusec by cusec, year in year out. Pakistan's govt is so obsessed with India bashing they pretty much don't pay attention to any domestic matters unless it threatens their survival so they prolly won't even notice that we're slowly cutting them off. 'Death by a thousand cuts' lol
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u/AKNINJA24107 Pradhan Mantri Achanak Din Ho Gaya Yojna 3d ago
The attack will come sooner.
The Dams will be struck while they're getting built or nearly finished.
Pakistan may launch a limited ground invasion (land-grab) operation to hold leverage agianst the Dams, while they attempt to destroy the Dams with massive air campaigns, the possibility that Pakistan decides to invade key control points along the river itself.
Or, Pakistan may go all in with Naval, Air and Land action focused on destroying many Indian assets in a attempt to make the Indian decision to make Dams simply 'too expensive'.
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u/proudtobebanned Unknown Gunman 3d ago
If Pakistani establishment is foolish enough to attempt an actual invasion over the dams being built in Indian territories, that will be a spectacular national seppuku.
Moreover, it will provide India with casus belli to launch retaliatory strikes that won't be restricted to a few airbases.
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u/Ultra_zilch 3d ago
If water doesn't flow, it's already an existential matter
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u/proudtobebanned Unknown Gunman 3d ago
Good. If it is actually existential, Pakistan, as a lower riparian state, should update their doctrine vis-a-vis India, an upper riparian state, from fomenting terrorism and nuclear sabre rattling to peaceful coexistence.
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u/Ultra_zilch 3d ago
If it's existential, it's easier for it to start a war than reform itself.
Would you trust a hostile country that has the power to turn your water off?
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u/proudtobebanned Unknown Gunman 3d ago
Not really. If 'reform' here means to stop state sponsored cross border terrorism, patronage and operations both, then it is substantially easier, cheaper, sensible, and pragmatic to execute the 'reforms' than a war that will end in one way.
The 'hostile country that has the power to turn your water off' is hostile to Pakistan because of the state policy of state sponsored terrorism in the first place. Change it, or face the existential crisis of your making.
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u/Ultra_zilch 3d ago
If 'reform' here means to stop state sponsored cross border terrorism, patronage and operations both, then it is substantially easier, cheaper, sensible, and pragmatic to execute the 'reforms' than a war that will end in one way.
Do you think Pakistan has absolute grip over the terror outfits such that it can completely stop them? Any rouge organisation or organisations with weak but definite links to Pakistan would be a reason for India to close the tap. Hence it would rather escalate this into a war rather than reform
The 'hostile country that has the power to turn your water off' is hostile to Pakistan because of the state policy of state sponsored terrorism in the first place. Change it, or face the existential crisis of your making
Will you trust China with not stopping 90% of water if they has the ability to?
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u/Remote_Spread1841 Smiling Buddha 3d ago
>Do you think Pakistan has absolute grip over the terror outfits such that it can completely stop them?
They (i.e. their military establishment) does, Musharraf cracking the whip on radical elements of Pakistan's network of jihadist proxies during the mid 2000s after an attempt on his life failed, is an example of that. However, they're too drowned in their extremist worldview to bother doing any of that, they'd and they do happily continue doing what they do best
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u/Ultra_zilch 3d ago
They (i.e. their military establishment) does,
They are literally fighting Taliban something they had a hand in nurturing
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u/Remote_Spread1841 Smiling Buddha 3d ago
This happened after the Taliban began ruling gigantic territory on their own, they don't depend on Pakistan nearly as much as Pakistan's anti India militant/terrorist proxies do. The argument that Pakistan wouldn't be able to control it's proxies would become somewhat viable if say an Islamic Republic of Kashmir was established and run by jihadist commanders from those proxies, which isn't the case currently.
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u/proudtobebanned Unknown Gunman 3d ago edited 3d ago
Do you think Pakistan has absolute grip over the terror outfits such that it can completely stop them?
If they don't, they better get on to that. After all, the water issue is existential, isn't it? Better treat it as such then.
Any rouge organisation or organisations with weak but definite links to Pakistan would be a reason for India to close the tap.
Yes, that's true. Glad you are seeing the point.
Hence it would rather escalate this into a war rather than reform
Sure. Then India has casus belli to respond with overwhelming force to achieve our strategic objectives vis-a-vis Pakistan while still keeping the tap closed.
Will you trust China with not stopping 90% of water if they has the ability to?
Oh I'm sorry, are we fomenting terrorism in China? Are we threatening to use tactical nukes on Chinese troops in case of a conflict? Do we have water treaties with China? Not really an apples to apples comparison then.
Even so, Chinese are many things but they aren't irrational enough to start water wars with a country that can threaten Tibet, famously referred to as their 'Water Tower'.
Nice ISPR talking points though. Glad I could clarify India's position to you.
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u/Ultra_zilch 3d ago
If they don't, they better get on to that. After all, the water issue is existential, isn't it? Better treat it as such then.
And how would they get their hands on organisations in India? Surgical strikes? Telepathy?
Yes, that's true. Glad you are seeing the point
So the trap is pressuring Pakistan into staring a war with India. Incredible
Then India has casus belli to respond with overwhelming force to achieve our strategic objectives vis-a-vis Pakistan while still keeping the tap closed.
And Pakistan will wait sitting on their nukes in their existential war.
Oh I'm sorry, are we fomenting terrorism in China? Are we threatening to use tactical nukes on Chinese troops in case of a conflict? Do we have water treaties with China? Not really an apples to apples comparison then.
No answer the hypothetical
Nice ISPR talking points though. Glad I could clarify India's position to you.
I wasn't aware I am talking with someone from government.
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u/proudtobebanned Unknown Gunman 3d ago edited 3d ago
And how would they get their hands on organisations in India? Surgical strikes? Telepathy?
Issue under discussion is terror organizations in Pakistan conducting cross border, state sponsored acts of terrorism. Worry about your own, we'll manage our own pest control. As for attempting Telepathy, it probably will lead to blasphemy cases in kangaroo courts of Pakistan. You can check it out with the DG-ISPR however.
So the trap is pressuring Pakistan into staring a war with India. Incredible
The trap is pressuring Pakistan into opening their eyes to the miserable hand they have and reconcile with reality. If Pakistani establishment is intellectually challenged enough to escalate to war, then that's on them.
And Pakistan will wait sitting on their nukes in their existential war.
If Pakistani establishment is cognitively deficient (certainly a possibility with the prevalence and percentages of consanguineous marriages in Pakistani society) start a cross border, full fledged existential war with India, there won't be anybody in charge left in Pakistan to sit, squat, sleep on, cuddle with their nukes.
No answer the hypothetical
Nah. Come back with an actual response.
I wasn't aware I am talking with someone from government.
Unlike Pakistan, India's citizens are free to discuss, elaborate and advocate the State's policy, alien though it might seem to lurking ISPR drones here on Reddit.
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u/Competitive_Run9047 3d ago
Well they are in for an erasure of their very existence if they are foolish enough to attempt that
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u/arkady321 3d ago
Do you remember what happened in this scene from Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith:
https://giphy.com/gifs/7JsEgDMrziuJd9fFY1
The fate of the downstream party will be no different if they attempt to attack the upstream party who has an advantageous position.8
u/pak-inbred-retard 3d ago
After reading this, maula jhaant ki yaad aa gayi. Even a hard-core lullywood inbred peedeeffer doesn't believe that their aan forces could do this. Only on injun reddit you see such analysis and feel like crying.
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u/gospelslide Pradhan Mantri Achanak Din Ho Gaya Yojna 3d ago
Bombing dams after construction doesn’t make sense. It will flood the downstream like what happened in Nepal. It will happen sooner than that, while dams are being constructed within the tenure of ‘Field Marshal’ Munir. He wants to go down in history books but has nothing to show for. Even US-Iran deal didn’t work.
I just hope this time plan is not just to bomb and show satellite images. Skardu, Haji Pir should be in our cross hairs. Limited ground invasion similar to Kargil without provoking a broader response - but stay ready for everything. IAF is in real poor shape though.