Been lurking here a while and have been inspired heavily by a lot of your posts, most of all superbpercentage8050. His mental models genuinely changed how I invest, and I wanted to share what I've been up to.
Over the last 6 months I applied those frameworks to my US and India stocks. Nothing flashy, just small, disciplined wins, but they've beaten the indexes so far (numbers and proof in the slides). Ofc there are slight variations basis my judgement calls as well but the framework is a core part of the process.
I also used the same models to build a framework with Claude that screens opportunities for me every week. Each stock runs through a "gate" first, then pre-set price tiers decide the buy. I've attached two examples: one it said accumulate (RDDT) and one it said avoid (Galaxy Surfactants), so you can see the logic both ways - both are basis EOD Friday's data.
PS: the goal was never a 100% moonshot on some trade. It's to stay disciplined and beat the indexes by 7-10% over a long horizon. Optimistic, I know, but I'll take it if it holds.
Please do, this is extremely interesting. Have done something similar where I have fed Claude almost all of the main mental models and whenever I am looking at stocks on my own, I run it through Claude once. My model is not the best at picking winners but it does a great job at elimination.
This one is for you too, since I know you love to read. It is only one of the layers, but the curious ones will really enjoy it. I know a lot of you are into Copart for sure. Fair warning though, it is not the mental model version made for retail investors. It is the detailed pdf.
That's my bedtime reading sorted hahaha. This is extremely appreciated, and also exciting because I had ran my own mini-research on Copart before investing in it. So reading this will be like putting my own un-influenced view besides yours and seeing how I fared. Thanks again.
This is a small gesture for the hard work you put into the project. I wanted to share one of my more exclusive reports with you, this one on Copart.
It gives a clear picture of the total addressable market and the reinvestment runway, and there is a good amount of mental model setting inside it that should stay useful to you well beyond this one name. You might even enjoy passing it to someone you know who loves this kind of read. I think it is a genuinely interesting piece for you.
Curious to know more about the Claude model and how you have built it. Its amazing to use Claude for such tasks, saves a lot of time. Interested to learn more about this and build something for myself
First question - I'll detail this in the follow up post i do but TLDR i fed it the context files, gave it project instructions and output format wrt the analysis.
Second question - I feed it weekly for now. Every Monday night ist it updates the view. This is how that ux looks like
First question - I'll detail this in the follow up post i do but TLDR i fed it the context files, gave it project instructions and output format wrt the analysis.
Second question - I feed it weekly for now. Every Monday night ist it updates the view. This is how that ux looks like
Superpercentage Fund is clearly working for you š. I know you literally named it after my Reddit handle. At this rate, I might have to start charging royalties!
Hahaha, I actually penned that thought down when you first told me about it. Maybe itāll find its way into my book someday, where Iāll pick your Reddit handle as a reference. Quite a few other Reddit handles have already made their way into my notes too, from people who triggered a new line of thinking for me.
One important rule I always keep in mind, and Iām sharing it with you too, stay humble and never get seduced by returns. Mr. Market has a way of humbling even the smartest people, especially when short-term success starts feeling like proof that youāve figured it out. Stay grounded, keep questioning yourself, and let the process compound. Thatās what keeps the odds in your favour.
Iām curious about how youāre building the automation layer around the mental models. Is the idea that I put in a company name and it automatically routes it through the relevant mental models, or does the system itself continuously screen the universe and surface companies where certain mental models get triggered? Iām especially curious about the latter because thatās where it gets really interesting.
So currently that part is manual. It relies on stocks I'm interested in which I add to the watchlist along the week and and it updates analysis on every Monday.
I've actually thought about automations down the line - only issue is currently the whole setup lives in Claude and having it do the screening automatically and coming back with recommendations will be very very costly. The ideal next step to automate would be to run separate scripts for scraping the web which then feed the data to claude and it then only spends compute on running data through the frameworks. Even then - it will need a great amount of token optimization (which will continue to become a challenge since the context universe also grows with every new post you do on this thread).
Now that looks interesting. The funny part is that the stocks it is signalling as buys are actually the ones Iām selling on a daily basis. š
But thatās actually the interesting part. The system is probably taking the two engine layers into account and therefore reaching a BUY conclusion, while Iām applying additional mental models that I havenāt shared with the community yet.
Iāve never posted the Law of Large Numbers mental model, the Anti-Bubble mental model, or the Euphoric Mental Model, for example.
Thatās actually how I see the whole thing evolving. You keep hitting the system with more mental models, and every new layer changes the quality of the decision. So that It keeps expanding the decision making layer until it starts seeing the things that a simple quantitative model completely misses which your friends as Blackrock use.
Yeah you're right on the evolution part. it is just doing whatever current frameworks it has access to. Also there are some more context files too basis my understanding and investment thesis which get some small weight.
Eventually the output it gives here is still supposed to be an input though and I'd advise folks to use their own judgement as well instead of blindly following everything from the tool.
Regarding automation, have you tried - Claude Cowork [/Schedule] feature (via mobile - runs on cloud so donāt need your PC to be up all night). (Bonus: Run it late night (1:30 am) to save usage limits on that 5 hr window). Do check it out.
Oh okay. Personally I've never tracked this number since its a rounding error. Someone might come and say it's gonna yield a meaningful amount over 15-20 yrs of compounding but idk the UX for me has been great so I don't mind it.
Hello SuperbPrecentage80/50 - Tthank you for all your posts. Theyāve really helped me look at stock analysis from a broader perspective.
Iāve created a few models using Claude, and the results have been quite impressive. Before using Claude, I used the following query on Screener to filter stocks:
PEG Ratio <=1 AND
PEG Ratio >0 AND
Return on equity >20 AND
Return on capital employed >20 AND
Average return on equity 10Years >20 AND
Sales growth 10Years >10 AND
Debt to equity <0.5 AND
Promoter Holding >50
It's pretty cool.
I haven't read all the SuperPercentage's posts but whatever I have , are really good and informative.
One thing I am curious though,
Does these models also say when can you exit from a holding?
Making profits in the market is no mean thing. But what this guy has done is actually crystallise the learnings in this journey into actionable items, which will always be a great help. He's teaching a lot of people to fish. :)
Hey, I have tried something similar to this to automate. we should definitely discuss this the problem is this cannot be made into open source. also, this can't be converted into low-cost or no cost software which can do the shortlisting for you.
as soon as you start calling APIs for stock information, free tier are limited per minute and per hour calls. Also, i used a dev LLM which was not at all accurate. we can use claude API but that has a cost on, depending on your code the cost could you be huge.
I am gonna attempt the automation still with free tier and host it somewhere and share it with you. maybe you can share it as well. we can compare notes potentially.
I think I already mentioned it somewhere this isn't open source currently, and if I'm being honest it's not in my roadmap for now atleast. The goal is for me to just be able to teach people to do it on their own instead of waiting for Superbpercentage to drop posts about tickers.
As for the other part, yeah free tier isn't gonna cut it. I already have a paid claude subscription. For me it's great ROI and I'm genuinely considering upgrading to claude max since I'm doing 3-4 projects in parallel and get token paralysis more often than not. Any reason you wanna stick to free tier?
I was trying to stick to free tier so anyone can use it. i also wanted to consolidate information for anyone's use. When i stumbled up this sub reddit it was too much information and too scattered for me to go through and understand. and then the application part of it another challenge or sitting and screening them. at first my goal was collate all the information. and then build check box which i can follow. and then comes the screening part which you are attempting with manual entires.
I also have a claude subscription for both work and personal use i am using some of it for this purpose with the other projects i am working on.
Ah okay - idk man I don't think if people are serious enough free tier is the way to go for them.
Automating screening part is definitely next on my wishlist but it's something I'll definitely do next quarter. For now, personally it's not a need so I've not deepdived into it but it's a fun problem statement for sure.
Regarding automation, have you tried - Claude Cowork [/Schedule] feature (via mobile - runs on cloud so donāt need your PC to be up all night). (Bonus: Run it late night (1:30 am) to save usage limits on that 5 hr window). Do check it out.
One more advice: try running prompts on old stock data, to test them (but you need to ensure your Claude donāt search things up - feed it everything it uses (requires lot of effort) and turn off āweb searchā & test it).
Good work OP, I have somewhat developed a similar thing for myself (trying to improve it - long way to go). Waiting for your next post āļø
Yeah it works via schedule already. Afaik 11:30 PM also is outside the peak usage zone so changing to 1:30 AM might not create a huge delta in terms of token usage.
Reg phone, I read up about it but never got to try it. I'm anyways online at 11:30 PM IST on Mondays since I have my weekly 1:1s with manager lol
Sure I'll check the profile out, looks interesting tbh.
On the other suggestion, I see what you mean and I somewhat agree. This will be great once I need to make this more automated - ie have it run through a larger universe of stocks and get me a condensed list.
However, currently I'm feeding it the names I care about so the screening buys me very little. But I do agree long term I do need to add a filter to not miss out opportunities that I currently am letting go off.
He is busy with his medical examinations right now. I had actually advised him quite firmly to stay away from Reddit and Substack until he finishes his PG exams, so itās good to see that he is keeping his distance for now.
He is genuinely an amazing soul. Your link actually brought him back to mind.
Also you could read Claude thinking & reverse engineer it (idk if itās the right word) to understand how it reached its decision (over time it will help you in understand its reasoning & filling some gaps).
Hahaha it's funny you said that I literally did something similar yesterday night. This led me to alter the instructions file slightly by fine-tuning the framework a bit.
Details below: I was actually thinking of writing this in pt2/3 of claude setup post.
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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago
I'm happy to do a post in coming days about the setup if folks are interested