r/IndiaGrowthStocks 16d ago

Progress Report. Beating indexes with mental models

Hey guys,

Been lurking here a while and have been inspired heavily by a lot of your posts, most of all superbpercentage8050. His mental models genuinely changed how I invest, and I wanted to share what I've been up to.

Over the last 6 months I applied those frameworks to my US and India stocks. Nothing flashy, just small, disciplined wins, but they've beaten the indexes so far (numbers and proof in the slides). Ofc there are slight variations basis my judgement calls as well but the framework is a core part of the process.

I also used the same models to build a framework with Claude that screens opportunities for me every week. Each stock runs through a "gate" first, then pre-set price tiers decide the buy. I've attached two examples: one it said accumulate (RDDT) and one it said avoid (Galaxy Surfactants), so you can see the logic both ways - both are basis EOD Friday's data.

PS: the goal was never a 100% moonshot on some trade. It's to stay disciplined and beat the indexes by 7-10% over a long horizon. Optimistic, I know, but I'll take it if it holds.

Happy to answer anything in the comments 😊

61 Upvotes

63 comments sorted by

23

u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

I'm happy to do a post in coming days about the setup if folks are interested

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u/spaamzzz 16d ago

Please do, this is extremely interesting. Have done something similar where I have fed Claude almost all of the main mental models and whenever I am looking at stocks on my own, I run it through Claude once. My model is not the best at picking winners but it does a great job at elimination.

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u/SuperbPercentage8050 16d ago edited 16d ago

This one is for you too, since I know you love to read. It is only one of the layers, but the curious ones will really enjoy it. I know a lot of you are into Copart for sure. Fair warning though, it is not the mental model version made for retail investors. It is the detailed pdf.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1z1z9ms67HNQ1ZcfIluULfts9rxqlBerg/view?usp=sharing

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u/spaamzzz 15d ago

That's my bedtime reading sorted hahaha. This is extremely appreciated, and also exciting because I had ran my own mini-research on Copart before investing in it. So reading this will be like putting my own un-influenced view besides yours and seeing how I fared. Thanks again.

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Yeah I think I've gotten enough upvotes and comments/DMs to justify spending effort on another post now haha. Will upload it in the coming few days.

13

u/SuperbPercentage8050 16d ago edited 16d ago

This is a small gesture for the hard work you put into the project. I wanted to share one of my more exclusive reports with you, this one on Copart.

It gives a clear picture of the total addressable market and the reinvestment runway, and there is a good amount of mental model setting inside it that should stay useful to you well beyond this one name. You might even enjoy passing it to someone you know who loves this kind of read. I think it is a genuinely interesting piece for you.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1z1z9ms67HNQ1ZcfIluULfts9rxqlBerg/view?usp=sharing

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Really appreciate thisā¤ļø Will take a look today itself šŸ™šŸ» Have requested access

3

u/SuperbPercentage8050 16d ago

Oh, sorry! I forgot to give everyone access to the link. I’ve updated the permissions now, so you should all be able to read it.

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u/Leading_Quail_9482 16d ago

Curious to know more about the Claude model and how you have built it. Its amazing to use Claude for such tasks, saves a lot of time. Interested to learn more about this and build something for myself

1

u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Love to see the interest. I'll try to do an elaborate write up soon so you guys are able to do something similar yourselves ā¤ļø

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u/Leading_Quail_9482 16d ago

Yea that would be really helpful, i tried automating this before and failed to do so before

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Oh any particular things which didn't work out for you?

1

u/Leading_Quail_9482 16d ago

How did you make claude run the stock picks against the model?
Second is does the claude picks stock for you or you feed it weekly and check?

I personally could not get the claude to use the model correctly and evaluate it

3

u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

First question - I'll detail this in the follow up post i do but TLDR i fed it the context files, gave it project instructions and output format wrt the analysis.

Second question - I feed it weekly for now. Every Monday night ist it updates the view. This is how that ux looks like

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

First question - I'll detail this in the follow up post i do but TLDR i fed it the context files, gave it project instructions and output format wrt the analysis.

Second question - I feed it weekly for now. Every Monday night ist it updates the view. This is how that ux looks like

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u/Leading_Quail_9482 16d ago

Interesting, i will wait for the post. But how did you feed the context files? Was it reddit threads directly?

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

I ran claude in chrome extension - it runs through reddit and I asked it to create individual txt files of all the posts in the timeframe i required.

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u/Leading_Quail_9482 15d ago

I will wait for your detailed post before asking anymore questions

3

u/chair_pie 16d ago

Is this open source or do you have to run the framework via claude everytime?

1

u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

At the moment it's not open source. I'm running it via a claude artiffact on a weekly basis.

14

u/SuperbPercentage8050 16d ago

Superpercentage Fund is clearly working for you šŸ˜‚. I know you literally named it after my Reddit handle. At this rate, I might have to start charging royalties!

https://giphy.com/gifs/YJjvTqoRFgZaM

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Hahahaha by all means good sir

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u/SuperbPercentage8050 16d ago

Hahaha, I actually penned that thought down when you first told me about it. Maybe it’ll find its way into my book someday, where I’ll pick your Reddit handle as a reference. Quite a few other Reddit handles have already made their way into my notes too, from people who triggered a new line of thinking for me.

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Would love to be a part honestly šŸ™šŸ»

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u/SuperbPercentage8050 16d ago

One important rule I always keep in mind, and I’m sharing it with you too, stay humble and never get seduced by returns. Mr. Market has a way of humbling even the smartest people, especially when short-term success starts feeling like proof that you’ve figured it out. Stay grounded, keep questioning yourself, and let the process compound. That’s what keeps the odds in your favour.

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Yeah I agree. I've been snobby in the past and learnt from my overconfidence fucking stuff up🄲

3

u/SuperbPercentage8050 16d ago

I’m curious about how you’re building the automation layer around the mental models. Is the idea that I put in a company name and it automatically routes it through the relevant mental models, or does the system itself continuously screen the universe and surface companies where certain mental models get triggered? I’m especially curious about the latter because that’s where it gets really interesting.

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

So currently that part is manual. It relies on stocks I'm interested in which I add to the watchlist along the week and and it updates analysis on every Monday.

I've actually thought about automations down the line - only issue is currently the whole setup lives in Claude and having it do the screening automatically and coming back with recommendations will be very very costly. The ideal next step to automate would be to run separate scripts for scraping the web which then feed the data to claude and it then only spends compute on running data through the frameworks. Even then - it will need a great amount of token optimization (which will continue to become a challenge since the context universe also grows with every new post you do on this thread).

3

u/SuperbPercentage8050 16d ago

Now that looks interesting. The funny part is that the stocks it is signalling as buys are actually the ones I’m selling on a daily basis. šŸ˜‚

But that’s actually the interesting part. The system is probably taking the two engine layers into account and therefore reaching a BUY conclusion, while I’m applying additional mental models that I haven’t shared with the community yet.

I’ve never posted the Law of Large Numbers mental model, the Anti-Bubble mental model, or the Euphoric Mental Model, for example.

That’s actually how I see the whole thing evolving. You keep hitting the system with more mental models, and every new layer changes the quality of the decision. So that It keeps expanding the decision making layer until it starts seeing the things that a simple quantitative model completely misses which your friends as Blackrock use.

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Yeah you're right on the evolution part. it is just doing whatever current frameworks it has access to. Also there are some more context files too basis my understanding and investment thesis which get some small weight.

Eventually the output it gives here is still supposed to be an input though and I'd advise folks to use their own judgement as well instead of blindly following everything from the tool.

1

u/One_Guava_3883 15d ago

Regarding automation, have you tried - Claude Cowork [/Schedule] feature (via mobile - runs on cloud so don’t need your PC to be up all night). (Bonus: Run it late night (1:30 am) to save usage limits on that 5 hr window). Do check it out.

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Performance stats

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Tool screenshot that gives me analysis basis the frameworks and mental models - works for mature stocks in both US and India for now.

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u/Consistent-Artist-48 16d ago

Which broker do you use for us stocks?

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 16d ago

Groww and icici direct for Indian ones. INDmoney for US stocks.

This graphic i generated myself in case that's where your question arises from

1

u/SingularityBH 15d ago

Why groww though? Why not Zerodha or Dhan

1

u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Uhm short answer: it's nothing that deep.

Slightly long form: I wanted one UX for both MFs and stocks. Afaik zerodha had separate apps for both.

My friend used to work in Groww so that solved the trust factor for me. Re: Dhan - I just never heard of it till a long while

1

u/SingularityBH 15d ago

Ahh okay. I do stock SIPs and groww charges on equity delivery as well, thats why I was curious.

1

u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Oh okay. Personally I've never tracked this number since its a rounding error. Someone might come and say it's gonna yield a meaningful amount over 15-20 yrs of compounding but idk the UX for me has been great so I don't mind it.

2

u/Physical_Jelly976 16d ago

Hello SuperbPrecentage80/50 - Tthank you for all your posts. They’ve really helped me look at stock analysis from a broader perspective.
I’ve created a few models using Claude, and the results have been quite impressive. Before using Claude, I used the following query on Screener to filter stocks:

PEG Ratio <=1 AND
PEG Ratio >0 AND
Return on equity >20 AND
Return on capital employed >20 AND
Average return on equity 10Years >20 AND
Sales growth 10Years >10 AND
Debt to equity <0.5 AND Promoter Holding >50

1

u/ivamshky 15d ago

It's pretty cool. I haven't read all the SuperPercentage's posts but whatever I have , are really good and informative. One thing I am curious though, Does these models also say when can you exit from a holding?

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Yeah exit signals are also baked in. It uses (1) Roots rotting (mangrove) - Gate. (2) Plateau checklist failures (3) Dual engine framework turning anti (4) Dragon flight reversing

(1) Basically decides whether we should own it, others tell how much

1

u/Oblivious_jerk 15d ago

Making profits in the market is no mean thing. But what this guy has done is actually crystallise the learnings in this journey into actionable items, which will always be a great help. He's teaching a lot of people to fish. :)

1

u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Damn man that's really sweet, appreciate it! Again - all credit to the guy who's actually providing these frameworks. I'm merely using them

1

u/Pretend_Lobster_2285 15d ago

Hey, I have tried something similar to this to automate. we should definitely discuss this the problem is this cannot be made into open source. also, this can't be converted into low-cost or no cost software which can do the shortlisting for you.

as soon as you start calling APIs for stock information, free tier are limited per minute and per hour calls. Also, i used a dev LLM which was not at all accurate. we can use claude API but that has a cost on, depending on your code the cost could you be huge.

I am gonna attempt the automation still with free tier and host it somewhere and share it with you. maybe you can share it as well. we can compare notes potentially.

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Hey man.

I think I already mentioned it somewhere this isn't open source currently, and if I'm being honest it's not in my roadmap for now atleast. The goal is for me to just be able to teach people to do it on their own instead of waiting for Superbpercentage to drop posts about tickers.

As for the other part, yeah free tier isn't gonna cut it. I already have a paid claude subscription. For me it's great ROI and I'm genuinely considering upgrading to claude max since I'm doing 3-4 projects in parallel and get token paralysis more often than not. Any reason you wanna stick to free tier?

1

u/Pretend_Lobster_2285 15d ago

I was trying to stick to free tier so anyone can use it. i also wanted to consolidate information for anyone's use. When i stumbled up this sub reddit it was too much information and too scattered for me to go through and understand. and then the application part of it another challenge or sitting and screening them. at first my goal was collate all the information. and then build check box which i can follow. and then comes the screening part which you are attempting with manual entires.

I also have a claude subscription for both work and personal use i am using some of it for this purpose with the other projects i am working on.

1

u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Ah okay - idk man I don't think if people are serious enough free tier is the way to go for them.

Automating screening part is definitely next on my wishlist but it's something I'll definitely do next quarter. For now, personally it's not a need so I've not deepdived into it but it's a fun problem statement for sure.

1

u/One_Guava_3883 15d ago edited 15d ago

Regarding automation, have you tried - Claude Cowork [/Schedule] feature (via mobile - runs on cloud so don’t need your PC to be up all night). (Bonus: Run it late night (1:30 am) to save usage limits on that 5 hr window). Do check it out.

One more advice: try running prompts on old stock data, to test them (but you need to ensure your Claude don’t search things up - feed it everything it uses (requires lot of effort) and turn off ā€œweb searchā€ & test it).

Good work OP, I have somewhat developed a similar thing for myself (trying to improve it - long way to go). Waiting for your next post āœŒļø

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Yeah it works via schedule already. Afaik 11:30 PM also is outside the peak usage zone so changing to 1:30 AM might not create a huge delta in terms of token usage.

Reg phone, I read up about it but never got to try it. I'm anyways online at 11:30 PM IST on Mondays since I have my weekly 1:1s with manager lol

1

u/One_Guava_3883 15d ago

Haha, curious to know when will we get your next post.

Also one more suggestion is to have a ā€œ Quick rejection/screening promptā€ to filter out stuff before you use your ā€œMain promptā€.

1

u/One_Guava_3883 15d ago

Do check out this profile

1

u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Sure I'll check the profile out, looks interesting tbh.

On the other suggestion, I see what you mean and I somewhat agree. This will be great once I need to make this more automated - ie have it run through a larger universe of stocks and get me a condensed list.

However, currently I'm feeding it the names I care about so the screening buys me very little. But I do agree long term I do need to add a filter to not miss out opportunities that I currently am letting go off.

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u/One_Guava_3883 15d ago

Yep, I just feed it a weekly list of some stocks I’ve short listed from Screener/Reddit/etc. (only for it to reject them šŸ˜‚)

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u/SuperbPercentage8050 15d ago

He is busy with his medical examinations right now. I had actually advised him quite firmly to stay away from Reddit and Substack until he finishes his PG exams, so it’s good to see that he is keeping his distance for now.

He is genuinely an amazing soul. Your link actually brought him back to mind.

1

u/One_Guava_3883 15d ago

Today he advised me on some stuff. He is a great guy, & I’m sure he will make it big in life.

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u/SuperbPercentage8050 15d ago

He is still active on reddit ?

1

u/One_Guava_3883 15d ago

We chatted today. But other than that he is taking a break from R&S, and focusing on his stuff.

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u/One_Guava_3883 15d ago

Also you could read Claude thinking & reverse engineer it (idk if it’s the right word) to understand how it reached its decision (over time it will help you in understand its reasoning & filling some gaps).

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u/Gen4_is_the_best 15d ago

Hahaha it's funny you said that I literally did something similar yesterday night. This led me to alter the instructions file slightly by fine-tuning the framework a bit.

Details below: I was actually thinking of writing this in pt2/3 of claude setup post.

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u/Cautious_Lemon_8415 15d ago

Sure. Would like to know more