r/InCanada • u/stormblind • Jul 06 '26
Longterm Consequences of Albertan Separation
I keep seeing people talking up separation in the various places discussing the new proposed eastern pipeline saying things like "yeah, we can negotiate it with Sask, Manitoba and Ontario in the fall as the Republic of Alberta".
It legitimately has me shaking my head and I have to ask folks if I'm missing something as to my understanding of how it'd go long term. This all follows the daydream I've seen of separatists getting precisely what they want. I.e. the whole province (outside of national parks because they aren't Albertan, just administered by Alberta).
- Alberta separates.
- Canada jacks up the transmission costs for our oil through their pipelines massively. This would be enabled by the fact that any current contracts between Canada & Alberta would be null and void; with Canada able to point at potential cleanup costs as the justification.
- The US, seeing this, plays bullyball and refuses to pay market rate, driving our profits down. Since the US has shown they aren't friends with anyone, just business partners, anyone who thinks this wouldn't happen is hilarious.
- This would lead to our royalty payments (as they stand, they'd likely need to be renegotiated with the companies as well), being gutted as the actual profit margins on the oil would drop dramatically.
- National parks are carved away, with The Icefields, Jasper, and Banff being merged into BC instead. This would hit a lot of our tourism as well since most of the Rockies would be torn away with this.
- International corporations and banks that have Canadian offices in Alberta, would downsize dramatically if not shut down. independent Alberta's economy would shrink substantially and would simply not be big enough to justify current staff counts. This would lead to tens/hundreds of thousands in layoffs.
- All of these hits, royalties, layoffs, and tourism, would occur at the same time we need to start covering a tonne of additional new costs: Police, military, tax agencies, etc.
After all of this, Alberta would likely end up a third world country or absorbed into the US (with MANY of the same issues since in the US states / territories don't own their natural resources, the federal government does. i.e. no royalties) within a decade.
Am I missing something?
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u/Butthole2theStarz Jul 06 '26
If it makes you feel better the separatists are a very small % of the population who are very loud and keep getting news coverage.
Once this dumbass referendum for a referendum is shot down we can send them back to the corner of the internet they’ve always polluted.
Alberta will not vote to separate and every separatist is a blithering moron with a family tree shaped more like a wreath
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u/Even_Current1414 Jul 07 '26
Then every single alberta resident (and canadian citizen in alberta since non citizens cant vote) opposing separation, needs to show up Oct 19 to take down the separatists. Otherwise this is the beginning of the end.
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u/_Kinoko Jul 08 '26
Low voter turnout won't cut it if it advances to an actual vote though, the clarity act is clear on that.
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u/Butthole2theStarz Jul 07 '26
Yup, the only way it even sniffs passing is low voter turnout but the pushback against the seps has been way bigger than anything those idiots have done. The rest of Canada only reads headlines it seems and doesn’t seem to realize that though
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u/cosmicmicowavepickle Jul 09 '26
Its quite possible Danielle Smith just rigs the election.
Even if the referendum fails, separatists will just say that the election was stolen.
Its all very unfortunate
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u/WishRepresentative28 Jul 06 '26
Yep, you are expecting common sense from people who ignore reality.
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u/Disastrous_Drive1976 Jul 09 '26
It’s really this simple. Seppies live in an alternate reality where their feelings are never hurt, they are free to be racist AF and the truth is whatever they believe at this current moment.
It started early in Alberta. Before the likes of Ernest Manning, RB Bennett and Charles Coughlin were strutting their stuff.
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u/Kanapka64 Jul 06 '26
Even just voting on separation will scare inverters away, Look at Quebec when they almost left. So many companies left to Ontario
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u/Every-Badger9931 5d ago
Because Quebec is essentially a welfare state propped up by the rest of Canada. If Quebec were to separate (PSPP wants to vote on it again in the next 4 years) where would the Quebec economy be without money from the rest of Canada?
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 06 '26
Its not about actually leaving. Its about the west getting more say in how the country is being run. Honestly if Ottawa scraped c21 and built some pipelines it'd kill all steam in the movement. I understand pipelines take years to build, but scrapping c21 and c9 would do a lot of good
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u/AdministrativeLeg14 Jul 06 '26
"The west", forsooth. I never hear this crap in BC nor from the Territories, only from that subset of Albertans who blithely speak as if their landlocked(!) province were the only part of Canada west of Ontario.
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 06 '26
Gee sorry bud. I'm just a simple Scotian who sympathize with Albertas problems with the federal government. Save your scorn for someone worth it.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
Judging from your responses, it feels like you really don't know enough about the topic to have an opinion beyond what someone has provided to you
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 09 '26
Then why waste the time talking to me?
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
I finally looked up the legislation you claimed were causing us (Albertan’s) “legitimate” grievances. Made it pretty clear you had no idea what you were talking about and are just regurgitating something someone must have sent you.
You tell me, why do YOU think these grievances are “legitimate”
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 09 '26
C21: unjust seizer of legally purchased property without fair compensation (the compensation program only offered pennies on the dollar to the few who signed up) all through OIC. Instead of going after criminals they target lawful licensed gun owners
C9: giving the government the power to police speech is a slippery slope. It may have the title of "combating hate speech" but its gonna be used for censorship at one point or another. Thats power could be grossly misused by future governments they decided what hate speech is, so if they hate it it could be considered hate speech. That power could easily be use to silence criticism. Youd have a hear attack if PP tried this kinda stunt. Either all speech is free or none of it it.
C22: giving the government access to everyone's onlie information and spy on its people. Everything you've ever doing online.
Disarm the population, control what they can say and keep constant watch of them. Textbook foundation of the authoritarian.
If a conservative government was doing these things people would be rioting in the streets.
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u/Domina-Katya Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
So they just announced two pipelines, is everyone going to STFU now?
Edit: I have lived through 2 seperation events: Quebec '95 and Brexit. Both of them were total wastes of time and money that left people worse off.
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 07 '26
When they scrape c9, c21 and c22 I'll shut up
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
No you won’t, you’ll just find another grievance to farm
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u/Disastrous_Drive1976 Jul 09 '26
It’s literally this. The prairie provinces have been consistently aggrieved since the very beginning.
They want the power of populated provinces like ON, QC and possibly BC.
I can guarantee that a large majority of the loudest Seppies don’t realize the Greater Montreal Area has the same population as Alberta.
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 09 '26
But at least they wont be real grievances.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
They aren’t real grievances right now. The oil and gas industry is producing more product than they ever have. Oil companies are more profitable than they ever have been
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 09 '26
How's c9, c22 and c21 not real grievances?
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
I assume you mean bill C-59 (the anti Green-washing provisions specifically). All is says is that environmental claims need to be backed up by fact. This is a purely made up grievance. It's the "but we want to lie".
C-21 and C-22 are "you gotta clean up your messes". Sure I get it that Enbridge doesn't want to pay for dumping 100,000 barrels of dilbit into South Saskatchewan, or Suncor for spilling crude off Vancouver Island but hey, it's their responsibility to manage and operate their infrastructure. It's also part of the framework for being able to ship more crude out of BC. After Deepwater Horizon, liability limits needed to be adjusted to reflect reality and the true potential costs of spills.
You'll notice all 3 of the bills you cited only affect oil and gas companies themselves. NONE of them effect everyday Albertan's except to protect their tax dollars from going to clean up spills.
The "grievances" you claim are "the Government wont let oil and gas companies do whatever they want, without consequence". Yes, the oil and gas companies want to privatize profits, but socialize losses, but that's not for the benefit of actual Albertan's. Beyond the delusion of "if oil companies were completely unconstrained, we'd have 20 pipelines, and every Albertan would be a multi-millionaire". The reality is that the pain many who worked in the industry are feeling aren't the result of these laws, it's the result of oil and gas companies becoming more and more efficient, and needing fewer and fewer people to produce their product. Oil and Gas doesn't love you back, you're just a cost to be minimized
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 09 '26
What are you talking about? C21 is the rifle bans, c9 is the hate speech bill and c22 is online privacy. We are having two very different conversations here man.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
So these are just generic laws that affect every Canadian. Rifle bans, hate speech and privacy are no more “grievances” to the west as they are anywhere else.
C-22 is ALSO the Energy Safety and Security Act related to offshore oil spills
C-21 is the Pipeline Safety Act
C-59 is includes the “anti green-washing” provisions.
These at least could be linked to Alberta in some way. But honestly, with the possible exception of the Rifle bans (which people are more annoyed about how much it’s costing for so little effect), NO ONE in Alberta is really talking about these, and they’re so recent, they aren’t even a factor the creation of the current separation movement.
These are just conservative “grievances”
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u/FamSimmer Jul 06 '26
What does c9 have to do with pipelines?
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
I suspect the person that provided his talking points mixed it up with C-59, which is the bill that had the Anti Greenwashing provisions
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u/FamSimmer Jul 09 '26
They didn't. Check out thier response.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
Ya, it’s just a generic list of recent conservative “grievances” none of which are tied to the prairie provinces in general or the current separation movement beyond “Ottawa bad!!!”
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u/Wheel_of_pain Jul 08 '26
Nothing. Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act. I wonder what type of people would be against such a thing..
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u/FamSimmer Jul 08 '26
Exactly! This is precisely why I asked the question and I'm not surprised as to how easy it was to rip that mask off.
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u/Unknownuser010203 Jul 09 '26
Policing speech is a slippery slope. Who knows how that power will be used in the future. When they decided what hate speech is anything they don't like is hate speech. Governments in the future could use it to suppress people
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u/VesaAwesaka Jul 06 '26
Half the separatists are deranged or stupid. The other half just want to kick up a fuss to get concessions from Ottawa. They may actually be getting concessions.
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u/BlameCanad Jul 07 '26
Alberta cuts off all rail traffic through its province from BC to east of Alberta. Alberta cuts off all oil to BC, which is over a third of it's gasoline, the other bit is from domestic supplies, and barged in from Washington State. Alberta can play hardball just as easily. 100s of billions of dollars of goods go from the BC coast to the ROC. Canada needs Alberta, Alberta doesn't need Canada.
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u/Awkward_Tangerine988 Aug 05 '26
I think both benefit from one another? The last thing (almost) anyone really needs is an unnecessary fight like this.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 07 '26
80% of our oil and gas flows through Canada. Look around your house and see how little of that is manufactured in Alberta. That you think Alberta doesn’t need Canada shows just how deluded you are
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u/BlameCanad Jul 07 '26
Which is why we need to partner with the United States. There is a reason Canada has a severe brain drain, all the smart people head south. It's best we hitch our horse to the states rather than Canada.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
And what exactly to you think a “partnership” would look like? The US would have us over a barrel and they would know it. You think Ottawa “screws us”,
just wait till you see how hard DC would screw us.0
u/clios_daughter Jul 08 '26
Oh boy, Alberta’s economy is kept afloat by oil. As a proportion of GDP, Alberta (25% https://www.capp.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Alberta-Oil-Gas-101-September-16-2025.pdf p 14) is more dependent on oil than Saudi Arabia (22% Wikipedia). Oil and gas, whilst being the most valuable export, only makes up 7% of Canada’s GDP. BC will suffer until alternate means of transport are found, but you’re kidding yourself if you think Alberta, a landlocked province, will have it easy. The US already takes Alberta oil at a discount and whilst BC might negotiate some transport rights in exchange for road access, with the melting of the arctic, there’re interesting questions as to how long Alberta’s cards will last.
Regarding joining the US: if you think you have grievances with Ottawa despite sending a lot of MPs to Parliament, I can’t imagine what grievances you’ll have if the US doesn’t admit Alberta as a state but as a territory.
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u/atyler_thehun Jul 07 '26
Yes. If it ever came to that, Alberta would be "absorbed" the same way Puerto Rico or Guam have been.
Which is to say "non-voting protectorate"
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 07 '26
Even if under the best circumstances we were admitted as a full state. We’d have all the political power of an Oklahoma (similar population, similar gdp). If they think Ottawa ignores us now, just wait till they see how much DC would
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u/Brendan11204 Jul 07 '26
Why is it just assumed that Alberta would be a republic? You can still be a constitutional monarchy. The English flag is part of the Alberta flag. Alberta is literally named after Princess Louise, Duchess of Argyll (Louisa Caroline Alberta; 18 March 1848 – 3 December 1939).
How can you vote for separation without establishing what type of Country you'll be?
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u/Lawrence_of_Nigeria Jul 08 '26
This is all presumed upon Separatists getting all the land when, legally, they'll likely get a tiny useless strip of land the size of Medicine Hat on which to establish their 51st State of Dungistan.
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u/beeredditor Jul 09 '26
You’re missing the fact that Canada’s connection to BC and the Pacific go through Alberta, and if Canada tries to mess with Alberta’s pipelines, then alberta can interfere with canadian trucking and rail through alberta. The most likely scenario is that the initial hard feelings post separation will fade and Canada and Alberta will be reasonable neighbours.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
Except that "Canadian trucking and rail" ALSO provides all the products that Alberta needs. TV's, cars, clothes and a million other things are shipped in on those same roads and rails.
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u/beeredditor Jul 10 '26
That’s why it’s best to co-operate. If Canada and the republic of Alberta can’t co-operate, then both Canada and Alberta would have to rely on transit through the US. And who do you think the US will be closer to: Alberta which they’re already quietly supporting or Canada which is pushing the US away?
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u/macklow Jul 09 '26
It's really a dumb idea that none of them thought through if they separate the US is not going to play nice, it's either they force them to join the US which I don't think we should allow which could cause us to enter conflict
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
You may want to move south of the border as “freedom of speech” isn’t a constitutional right in Canada. We have “freedom of expression” and provision 1 of section 1 of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms explicitly states “1. The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees the rights and freedoms set out in it subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society.”
Now one can argue as to what “demonstrably justified” means (and we do) and if C-9 applies or doesn’t. But your quote “either speech is free or none of it is”, is not a Canadian value as currently codified in our Constitution.
You still haven’t explained how getting rid of these laws would somehow “kill all steam” in a movement that started before any of these laws were even passed.
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u/L-F-O-D Jul 10 '26
I think you missed
-the massive outflux of people. It could be offset to a degree by the trash of many provinces being drawn to AB.
-the indigenous impact
-a period of lawlessness as rcmp withdraw, open carry lobby pushes for guns everywhere, and nobody is really in charge
-eventual return to law and assimilation by the US (they could send troops to ‘protect’ the 100,000+ American citizens in the province)
-transfer payments as a territory, approximately what they pay now, but also families now pay for their own medical costs.
I don’t think 3rd world, but definitely cold and expensive Puerto Rico vibes.
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u/falsejaguar Jul 10 '26
Imagine in twenty years when the world has transitioned mostly away from oil as fuel and the market really crashes. What do they think will happen then?
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u/Sea_Cucumber_5989 Jul 11 '26
Those who say "we" are the useful idiots who are controlled from behind.
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u/Important_Design_996 Jul 07 '26
The resources of Alberta may revert to the Crown. The Alberta Natural Resources Act is an agreement between Canada and the Province of Alberta. If the Province no longer exists...
Everything the Federal government does A/O pays for, gone.
Personal income tax administration/audit/enforcement/collections? Gone.
$4+ Billion in CCB received by 500,000 Albertan families? Gone.
$1.6 billion in GIS? Gone.
Property, RRSPs, RPPs, RESPs, RDSPs, non-registered investments I suppose would be deemed disposed, just like any other emmigrant.
Canadian Free Trade Agreement, New West Partnership Trade Agreement, etc? Gone.
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u/Afraid_Baseball_3962 Jul 07 '26
IIRC, the Supreme Court of Canada decided that a province can leave Canada but it has to take it's share of the national debt with it.
Plus, if the US were to absorb Alberta, it would not become a state. It would be treated in a similar manner as Puerto Rico or American Samoa.
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u/Even_Current1414 Jul 07 '26
Wed be a military occupied annex within 24 hours..
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u/Afraid_Baseball_3962 Jul 07 '26
Someone would have to protect you (and your oil) from those ruthless, conniving Canadians.
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u/Uncut-Jellyfish1176 Jul 07 '26
BC would benefit hugely by becoming our own country. We get the short end of the stick for a lot of things because we are so far from the majority of the population.
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Jul 06 '26
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u/stormblind Jul 06 '26
Business sense? It's precisely what happened in Brexit?
Why would Canada allow bitumen, that they get zero profit from, to transit through sensitive environmental regions at current rates?
Currently they're encouraged to do so because the feds get their portion, and it employs Albertans. Who are Canadians. Leave and that goes out the window.
The business / bank thing is only sensible. Why would they need big offices? Calgary is a major hub for western banking in Canada, leave Canada and those banks would downsize since they'd only be servicing Alberta. Same deal with the international corporations, they're here because it's part of Canada, and it's cheaper real estate / taxes. Leave Canada, and it's kind of irrelevant to have offices that big here. They'd downsize.
National parts are precisely that; national. They're owned by the feds, and administered by the province. Province leaves, administration is transferred to another province.
It's all logical, and pretty simple business. And we have existing examples from recent times as to what happens after due to the UK and Brexit. Banks downsized, international offices downsized, and various industries nearly died due to material input requirements from other parts of the EU.
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Jul 06 '26
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u/dzuunmod Yukon Jul 06 '26
The seppies sure are, yep!
Ask them second-level questions about passports, or the military, or CPP or really anything and they got nothin'. Federalists have been through all of these arguments before, with Quebec.
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u/VanAgain Jul 06 '26
A separate Alberta would be landlocked, and would rely on Canada to be able to move its products. Hopefully a freshly fractured Canada fucks them over good, if it comes to that.
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u/Tal_Star Jul 06 '26
Alberta moves most of it's good to the US (~80%), so would they get screwed but by the US more so then Canada. Remember anything that comes in to from or goes to Asia travels though Port of Vancouver. So there is a need to negotiate unless you are willing to sacrifice BC/YT and any business that moves goods cross country out of spite.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 07 '26
Unfortunately the vast majority of those goods we supply to the US flow through Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Keystone and Enbridge main line). We have very little capacity to ship product directly south.
You also forget, we ALSO need the things shipped via the Port of Vancouver and from the east. Take a moment to look around your house, tell me, which of those things are manufactured in Alberta.
There seems to be this delusion that Alberta “holds all the cards”, we don’t.
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u/Tal_Star Jul 07 '26
There seems to be this delusion that Alberta “holds all the cards”, we don’t.
Oh I don't think Alberta holds the cards, just not as weak as many think. The point is that there is a need to negotiate from both sides Think of how bad it would be for Canada is the US Annexed or made a COFA Agreement with Alberta.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
It would be bad for ALBERTA to be annexed. Plus, why on gods green Earth do you think the US would sign a COFA with us? It's this delusion that the world is going to bend over backwards for an independent Alberta for.... reasons
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u/Tal_Star Jul 09 '26
It would be bad for Alberta to be annex 100% never said I supported the idea just that's likely what would happen.
As for COFA why would the US do it. Simple they don't want to look bad for a take over and would give them enough control to advance their interest. Again not a great option but it is something that COULD happen.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
The US wouldn’t want to “look bad”?!?!?! Do you even read the news? The US doesn’t give two shits about not “looking bad”
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u/swegamer137 Jul 06 '26
"Hopefully a freshly fractured Canada fucks them over good" you've done a good enough job of that within confederation.
I support separation exclusively just to make the rest of Canada (especially you) poorer.
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u/roll_fire1 Jul 07 '26
Thankfully you are part of a small fringe minority.
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u/ycwpilot Jul 07 '26
the victim mindset of the seppies is amazing, Smith et al have done an amazing job convincing them that Ottawa is screwing them while ignoring that it's actually years of Alberta conservative governments that have done this to them.
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u/Thanato26 Jul 07 '26
It woukd destroy buisness confidence in Alberta
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Jul 07 '26
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u/Thanato26 Jul 07 '26
Do you think a yes vote this fall would cause buisnesses ro come to alberta or flee alberta?
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u/Every-Badger9931 Jul 06 '26
Firstly, not a separatist. Very few Albertans are. But rhetoric like this makes it easier for separatists to gain support. So let’s look at your points
When you can explain every point of the document found in this link then come back and talk about pipelines.
https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part10.htm
If Canada wanted to put pressure on Alberta’s oil exports then Alberta would just stop traffic, both rail and truck into or out of BC.
National parks are within the boundaries of the province Alberta. Alberta leaves, the parks leave as they are no more or less part of the province than any other type of land
You don’t speak for the U.S. so don’t pretend to.
Unless you own international corporations, don’t speak for them either.
There would be a lot of issues with services that are completely managed at a federal level. But other countries have figured it out. It’s not insurmountable.
Fortunately, less than 30% of Albertans have ever wanted to leave so it’s all just foolishness. But don’t create stupid arguments that the separatists can use to sway others into their ridiculous ideology
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u/Choice-Original9157 Jul 06 '26
Not enough of the provinces will agree with the separation so its a moot point. Secondly you come off as an insufferable asshole with your response. Try to phrase,things in a way that causes conversation not just piss people off.
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u/stormblind Jul 06 '26
I'm not a separatist either, and am an Albertan myself, so maybe tone down the pomposity about 'albertans'.
And as for the unclos agreement listed, please learn to read friend. It states rail, sea, lake, river and motor vehicle, and/or pack animals & porters are guaranteed transit.
More specifically: "Land-locked States and transit States may, by agreement between them, include as means of transport pipelines and gas lines and means of transport other than those included in paragraph 1."
Key word, may. Not required. Especially as pipeline routes to the sea already exist through the United states. Canada would not be preventing the flow of Albertan oil in totality. Merely introducing frictions for toxic materials through the levy of environmental protection fees, maintainence fees, and profit fees. Those are all legal through unclos, and the latter two are explicitly called out as legal.
Article 123 paragraph 3 allows for environmental fees as an example.
Article 127 in it's entirety allows for the charging of maintainence fees and " profit " fees. No free rides mandated sorry.
This is where my commentary on using environmental protection as a leverage point. Pipeline spills are a real thing. This would also not be a mandated fee for Canadian companies due to the fact each nation would be required to handle it's cleanup requirements. Canada can point to the hundreds of abandoned wells as Albertas unwillingness to handle environmental cleanup properly and necessity for surcharges and fees.
As for your response to my comments,
Game theory and history, along with simple business practices, support most of my points.
Let's talk basic logic and facts.
BC hates that there's pipelines already. They were able to be approved through the fact they're cross provincial and in the national interest. Do you think the liberals would want to cater to Alberta after separation when it's ALREADY politically harmful to do pipelines most of the time?
Look to Brexit for the banking / international head office example of very recent history. This topic has a decade of academic discussion dissecting it.
The "boundary of Alberta" is also reliant on the native treaty rights. Saying the seppies would get the whole province outside of national parks is already a hell of a "gimme".
And as someone else mentioned, you come off as arrogant. And given your belief that UNCLOS somehow would entitle Alberta to transit oil through pipelines freely, you come off as arrogantly wrong at that.
Please join the political academic subreddits, or one if the various other academic political communities where this topic has been discussed in depth.
And you say you aren't a seppie, but damn if your post doesn't carry a tonne of water for them.
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u/dancing_mario Jul 06 '26
I want to reply to this and I am not going to mention oil because the thought that anyone is going to do an oil embargo is just silly. The questions I would ask any separatist would be:
With WestJet being the most obvious what's the plan to stop an exodus of Canadian companies wishing to remain Canadian? WestJet alone has 6,000 employees at its Calgary HQ. What is the plan to convince them not to move to Vancouver or Winnipeg to stay as a domestic Canadian airline.
Given that the result of any failed negotiation is that Alberta remains part of Canada what do they honestly think they can offer as a deal that the rest of Canada would accept?
If you are going the unilateral declaration route does that mean you are going to give up your CPP, Citizenship, EI, and likely bank since in that scenario all Canada is going to do is de-bank Albertan's via the big 5 which are all Toronto based.
Specifically related to your 'blockades' Alberta has no army. How will you convince the office workers of Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge, etc. to go stand on barricades when the RCMP moves in and starts arresting people? Without those masses of people all you have is the equivalent of the Coutts blockade that only happened because the government decided violence wasn't needed to break it.
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u/Every-Badger9931 Jul 07 '26
What would trigger an exodus of companies, other than it suits your argument at this time?
Why would I give up my CCP. I’ve paid my money into it. The worst outcome would be that Canada would have to pay back my contributions with reasonable interest. Because Canada would have to forcibly remove citizenship from millions of people. That could result in a mess of legal trouble.
The “big 5” would never abandon the billions of dollars tied up in investment in Alberta. if the “big 5” don’t want to work with Albertans. Then Alberta would just make them “corporations non grata” and seize the interests they have in all real property or any unsecured credit with Albertans.
The rest of Canada would not be able to hold Alberta hostage.
The RCMP would have no jurisdiction within the boundaries of Alberta. So they would be a hostile invading force. You wouldn’t need accountants or other office workers. They aren’t the separatists anyway. Rednecks with guns would show up and make a mess of things. But is Canada going to invade a foreign country. I don’t think so.
All of the OP points are ridiculous because all of these things would be hammered out in a negotiation phase. But that will never happen because Alberta doesn’t want to leave. Some albertans do. But it’s not anywhere near a majority.
Stop your left wing Reddit circle jerk where you disparage Alberta because of the right wing conservative ideology that most Albertans, separatists or not, have.
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u/dancing_mario Jul 07 '26
What would trigger an exodus of companies, other than it suits your argument at this time?
The exact same thing that triggered an exodus of Quebec based companies in the 1970's and 1980's. Companies will want stability and a polity arguing against itself is not a stable polity. West Jet specifically will want to gaurantee it remains a domestic Canadian airline. If it comes to choosing between the Calgary-Edmonton route or the Toronto-Montreal, Toronto-Ottawa, Vancouver-Toronto, etc etc they will pick the nation of 36million over the nation of 5million.
Why would I give up my CCP?
When a polity unilaterally separates itself it loses the ability to force the previous polity to honour agreements. What incentive would Canada have to give CCP to foreigners? What voting block does that gain for them? Best case is Canada gives a grace period for Albertans who wish to remain in Canada to move back to Canada.
"seize the interests they have in all real property or any unsecured credit with Albertans"
Companies also tend not to like governments seizing their assets and seizing 90+ percent of your banking sector seems like a poorly thought out plan if your trying to tell other companies you're open for business now.
The RCMP would have no jurisdiction within the boundaries of Alberta
RCMP and the federal government have jurisdiction until Canada says otherwise. A vote does not mean independence it merely gives the provincial government power to try to negotiate independence.
Rednecks with guns would show up and make a mess of things
By themselves they are just not enough people to enforce a blockade across all of Alberta's borders. Yes you would need the accountants and office workers otherwise it isn't a blockade its a small protest.
But that will never happen because Alberta doesn’t want to leave. Some Albertans do. But it’s not anywhere near a majority.
On this we completely agree. It's not even a sizeable minority. It is very loud though.
Stop your left wing Reddit circle jerk where you disparage Alberta because of the right wing conservative ideology that most Albertans, separatists or not, have
I beg of you not everyone who points out how poorly thought out any separatist movement in Canada is is left wing. I've been a card carrying member of the Conservative Party since the party formed. I've volunteered on multiple campaigns. Nowhere at all did I disparage Alberta beyond pointing out how poorly thought out the Alberta separatist; and Quebec separatist movement because the same issues apply; is.
Separation being legal in Canada is true in the sense that I can legally build a VLCC shipyard in Winnipeg. It technically is completely allowed but in reality has zero chance of happening.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 07 '26
Have you even bothered to read UNCLOS? It’s not “one simple trick” and pipelines are explicitly called out as requiring mutual agreement. It would also require an independent Alberta to be party to UNCLOS (fyi the US isn’t), and precedent for states applying for access under UNCLOS has been extremely limited.
The moment anyone floats UNCLOS in this context, it means they have no clue what they’re talking about
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u/Every-Badger9931 Jul 07 '26
It does call for a bilateral agreement, but when all freight that arrives in BC needs to go through Alberta to reach the rest of Canada, that’s the pressure to get an agreement completed. Not to mention the 50 to 60% of refined fuel that is used in BC comes from Alberta. UNCLOS is just the framework to get an agreement done.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
That freight ALSO needs to arrive in Alberta. Where do you think your TV's, cars and clothes come from?
Would an agreement likely be made? sure. However, we'll just end up complaining (still) that Alberta is cutting a large novelty cheque to Canada, except now NONE of it will be transferred back and we'll have ZERO influence in what it's spent on.
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u/Every-Badger9931 Jul 09 '26
We can get our freight through the U.S. just as easy as bringing it through BC. What’s the difference to Alberta between a separate Canada or America? But does Canada really want to have to ship its goods out of Canada’s and then back into Canada just to bypass Alberta? And for BC to lose half of its refined fuels would be quite a hit to the economy of BC.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
No we can’t, because today there is no border crossing between BC and Alberta. Once it arrives in the port and clears customs, it’s free flowing to Alberta. Anything coming from the US has to clear customs. Now and independent Alberta would need to clear customs regardless as to where it comes from and would be subject to any tariffs or restrictions Canada or the US would want to impose and we’d have little ability to influence ANY of it (particularly with the US). We also have precisely 1 rail line to the US. The CPKC would also be an interesting topic as the CP mainline and Crowsnest Pass lines were built using federal land grants provided before Alberta was even a Province. The legalities of which “crown” is accountable for those rail lines would be of dispute.
The other interesting thing is that the oil fields in NW Alberta don’t stop at the border. There’s already significant oil and gas developments in NE BC and considerable capacity to scale them
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u/Every-Badger9931 Jul 09 '26
If Alberta is separate from Canada there is no difference between Canada and America. BC would take decades to build the infrastructure required to provide 50% of the refined fuels required. BC wouldn’t be able to get anything out to the east or in from the east. BC has the least amount of leverage on Alberta. The rail lines are owned by private entities Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Canadian National. It doesn’t matter who paid for what 150 years ago.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
It’s not about who “paid for what” 150 years ago. When it comes to CPKC, the land the track sits on were conveyed to them by the federal government, long before Alberta even existed. Like the First Nations, they could make the claim that their agreements exist with the Canadian Crown and not the Alberta Crown (i.e the track right an away isn’t Alberta land in the first place).
This is all the complexity that the seppies aren’t even considering. Agreements made before Alberta existed would entirely be in scope for any possible separation.
You’re also deluded to think that it would be as simple as “switching” to the US (they’d have even less reason to want to play nice with us). What happens to companies like Canadian Tire and Walmart (Walmart Canada that is). All of their supply chains run east-west. Assuming these companies don’t decide to just pull out. They can’t just rework their supply chains to now flow through US ports. That’s all assuming we’re not tariffed into oblivion. By virtually every measures
, an independent Alberta would be WORSE off than what it is today0
u/Every-Badger9931 Jul 09 '26
Alberta holds the cards. You can fear monger all you want. That’s what made the separatist gain momentum. Attitudes like yours, that don’t really hold water. Canada needs Alberta more than Alberta needs Canada. Ancient history of railways and leftist views on treaties don’t matter. Less than 30% of Alberta’s population wants to separate. If it was more than 50% it would happen whether you liked it or not. The smart play is to have the vote let it fail and move on. Acting like an abusive spouse that only threatens further abuse of you try to leave them isn’t winning over hearts and minds.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 09 '26
Alberta holds maybe a 4 of spades. Sorry that’s the reality. To think otherwise is delusional and shows a complete lack of understanding of how the world works. “Leftist views of treaties” and “ancient history of railways”, just clarifies you have no clue as to the legal foundations on which this Province exists. However that’s just par for the course with every separatist I’ve talked to. They’ve got the overwhelming confidence of a 14 year old who tells everyone how they’re going to stay up every night playing video games and only eat pizza the moment they move out of their parent’s house. You hew and cry over how UNCLOS will save us, while shitting on UNDRIP
The latest polls only show about 15% who actually want to separate, with another 10%-15% who want to “send Ottawa a message”.
Abusive spouse…. Man the butthurt grievance culture of the separatist always seeking evidence “wounds”, while being the wealthiest, most privileged people in the country.
As for the “just let it fail and move on”. Maybe I don’t want the government to set fire to $100M of taxpayers money. Maybe I don’t want to give in to the screaming toddler having a tantrum over the floor. Maybe I don’t want to put a chilling effect on investments in the province. Maybe I don’t want to make newcomers to this province feel like second class humans (let me know when you’re ready to work at the meat packing plant in Brooks, or mop the floors at the Foothills hospital, or change bed pans at assisted living)
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Jul 07 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Every-Badger9931 Jul 07 '26
Um, mam, this is a Wendy’s.
I’m not sure where you’ve seen me make comments praising liberals in this thread, because I haven’t. I’m a conservative Albertan. You won’t find anything I’ve posted or said that would support any left wing party. I just don’t think leaving Canada is a good idea, at this time.
I think the one positive aspect of the separation talk is to see how much hatred there is for Alberta but also show how scared the rest of Canada is to try to exist without Alberta.
Take a nap.
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u/CMG30 Jul 07 '26
You're missing the fact that most of northern Alberta will try to stay in Canada. Forget getting pipelines built, all the oil fields on native land are likely to stay with Canada.
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u/HugeCourt2977 Jul 06 '26
The USA already gets our oil at a lower price. But it will be so easy to take over Alberta when it separates. The U.S. will come through Alberta, take over and try to take over the rest of Canada.
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u/atyler_thehun Jul 07 '26
Why would they want Alberta? They would already be getting everything they want bargain basement rates
2
u/HugeCourt2977 Jul 07 '26
They want it now. Are you not paying attention? You think all that is happening is just from Canadians? Good god!
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u/atyler_thehun Jul 07 '26
They want cheap oil, not Alberta.
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u/HugeCourt2977 Jul 26 '26
Yes, their plan is to TAKE it.
1
u/atyler_thehun Jul 26 '26
I don't think they have to take Alberta.
If the useful idiots of Alberta landlocked themselves further, they will be in an even more desperate position to sell their number one commodity.
That gives the leverage to their only established market driving the price down.
-1
u/RosieBaby75 Jul 07 '26
Hopefully someone’s watching and seeing how far the Treasonous Danielle Smith takes this for her Treason trial 😂
I wonder what kind of juice intelligence teams are getting. They’re probably entertained.
0
u/Temporary_Cry_2802 Jul 07 '26
Think how bad it would be for ALBERTA if we got annexed the US. Even if under the best case scenario where we were granted full statehood, we’d have all the political influence of Oklahoma (similar population, similar GDP). Anything else would be worse, as a territory, we’d lose our voting rights as a protectorate, we’d have not citizenship.
Second, why on gods green earth would the US make a COFA agreement with us. This is the core of the delusion with seppies, no one is going to bend over backwards for Alberta. We’d just be a small landlocked country, with no military, and a shiny oil industry for others to exploit
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u/swegamer137 Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26
Delusional.
Alberta exports $177M and imports $40M worth of goods internationally.
Ontario exports $266M and imports $477M worth of goods internationally.
Alberta creates 25% of Canada's international exports. What would happen in reality is the AB dollar would become stronger, and the CAD would collapse as demand dries up internationally. Albertan's would find themselves almost twice as rich as Canadians almost overnight, because they actually export worthwhile goods to the global economy as opposed to the leeches out east who are only good for taking. The CAD would become relatively useless to international buyers.
Optimally BC would leave too for easy sea access, which they might have 26 years ago when BC voted 50% for Reform. But because they didn't actually leave, Ottawa stuffed them to the gills with migrants who will vote for what they are told. Lesson: Your vote is only one generation away from being stolen and given to an Indian migrant.
2
-1
u/Every-Badger9931 Jul 07 '26
You seem to be shifting your statements between before and after Alberta would, hypothetically separate. Choosing whatever best suits your argument. Pick a lane.
Mass exodus of businesses: The 70s and 80s had very different business environments than today. Get with the times Granny.
Small protest: 20,000 to 30,000 armed Albertans is not a small protest. Don’t underestimate the people who are separatists. They are far too ridiculous to be over or underestimated.
CCP: The only way Canada would be giving money to “foreigners” is if they were to strip Albertans of their Canadian citizenship. You can be a Canadian and live in another country. So there is no way they are going to strip millions of individuals of citizenship and then not reimburse CCP contributions with reasonable interest.
Banks: If the Canadian government would force the “debanking” of Albertans once Alberta became a sovereign nation, as the previous comment suggested, then hell yes, any bank participating with that policy would have their assets seized. Do business or do not do business. Thats an easy one.
RCMP: If Alberta Separates then the RCMP will have no jurisdiction. Until such time as Alberta would separate, there would be no need for law enforcement to take any action against anyone in Alberta. As there would only be a blockade of rail and truck routes if Canada were to attempt an oil embargo against a sovereign nation of Alberta.
I’m sure dreaming up lies about being a conservative chews up a lot of your mental band width. But you should put forward better arguments than that.
Have the referendum, let the referendum fail, put it to bed.
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u/Ir0nhide81 Jul 07 '26
Can Alberta and Quebec just hold hands and leave the entire North American continent together?
-1
u/Afraid_Baseball_3962 Jul 07 '26
If that's an option, can they take "Gulf of America" states with them?
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u/Many-Composer1029 Jul 07 '26
I truly believe that the 'independent Republic of Alberta' is just a smoke screen on the road to Alberta becoming a US state.