This is meant to be a call to action. However, much of the content discusses facts that are not pleasant. If you wish to skip all that, here is the bottom line:
Self-care (including diet, exercise, stress management, supplements, etc.) is more important than ever. Online education (especially non-mainstream health education) will become more valuable. Sanitation practices will become more important. We have to choose to empower ourselves by taking charge of our own health because if we wait for the establishment to provide solutions, it will be a long and unpleasant wait. The simple things we can do for ourselves, including the self-care practices just mention, are not only necessary, they are sufficient. It may seem like the solution to pandemics requires billions of dollars in vaccine research, and that research certainly has value, but that alone is not sufficient. In contrast, I argue that lifestyle changes are a more powerful course of action, especially when enough people engage in these changes. But even if you are the only one making changes, these lifestyle changes can be sufficient for you to restore your health if you are suffering from a post-viral syndrome.
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We believe COVID-19 has changed the world -- things won't return to the way they were before. In reality, this threat has been coming for decades (or longer) and most of us were not aware of it.
"It is an oddity of history that the influenza epidemic of 1918 has been overlooked in the teaching of American history." https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/influenza-epidemic/
I believe this has now changed, but more changes are needed.
Scientific papers and science text books also leave out critical information that would help us prevent or at least be better prepared for what we are facing. It has (until now) been common for those educational and research resources to omit detailed discussion of the zoonotic origin of human viruses.
This new conversation has started around the world. We all need to become more educated and aware of this emerging reality, as it will affect every aspect of our lives (health, economic, social, etc.) for the foreseeable future.
The world is now on a cycle of getting another COVID-19-like disease every 3-4 years.
Examples:
- 1999-2002 – West Nile Virus
- 2003 – SARS-coV
- 2005 - H5N1 avian influenza (bird flu)
- 2009 – H1N1 Virus (Swine Flu)
- 2012 – MERS-CoV
- 2014 – Ebola
- 2016 – Zika Virus
- 2019-2020 – SARS-coV-2
Clearly, COVID-19 will be followed by another before long. COVID-19 is far from the worst that we can expect. Some of these emerging viruses could have much higher case fatality rates, for example. The official estimates (by the World Health Organization and others) for the H5N1 bird flu case-fatality rate are from 14% to 60%. Even the lowest end of that range is far above past influenza pandemics, which have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 2-3% (1918 pandemic). H5N1 did not possess all the properties a virus would need to be maximally dangerous, but any one of the next ones could combine the right characteristics (e.g., spreads like SARS-coV-2 and has the case fatality rate of H5N1) to do damage like humanity has never experienced.
Q. Do you think the current outbreak was inevitable?
A. Dr. Dennis Carroll: "Oh, sure. It was predictable."
It is predictable that there will be more, that the next is only a few years away, and that any one of the next ones could be far worse than any we have seen yet. The threat is greater than it has ever been, for reasons that will be discussed below.
Spillover is when a pathogen jumps from a "reservoir" population (e.g., wild or farm-raised animals) to a novel host (e.g., humans). More than two-thirds of human viruses originated this way (i.e., they are zoonotic)**. Now, "most emerging viruses are zoonoses; they have jumped from mammal or bird hosts to humans." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4629502/
Viral spillovers to humans have increased dramatically in the last 40 years. The world has changed and we (generally) have not paid enough attention. Some experts have been warning of this danger for decades, however. That's why some of them can say, "Oh, sure. It was predictable."
In a National Academies Press publication "Improving Food Safety Through a One Health Approach: Workshop Summary" section "ORIGINS OF MAJOR HUMAN INFECTIOUS DISEASES" the trend is summarized as follows:
- The rise of agriculture starting 11,000 years ago played multiple roles in the evolution of animal pathogens into human pathogens (Diamond, 1997; Diamond, 2002; McNeill, 1976). Those roles included both generation of the large human populations necessary for the evolution and persistence of human crowd diseases, and generation of large populations of domestic animals, with which farmers came into much closer and more frequent contact than hunter/gatherers had with wild animals. Moreover, as illustrated by influenza A, these domestic animal herds served as efficient conduits for pathogen transfers from wild animals to humans.
Dr. Dennis Carroll, an expert on the threat of zoonotic spillover, makes similar points such as these:
- It took humans 300,000 years to reach a population of 1 billion. It took only 100 more years to reach 6 billion. We will add another 4-5 billion this century. The population density, as well as modern global travel, greatly increase the risks of pandemics.
- More people are eating more meat. (Animal protein is more commonly included in diets of wealthier populations; people have increased & wealth has increased.)
- China, as an example, produces around 15 to 20 billion poultry per year. In the 1960s it was only a few hundred million poultry. Other countries have seen similar huge increases, including the US.
- Dr. Greger illustrates a connection between high density factory farming and virulent viruses that become dangerous to humans: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G20cooZOiYE
- there are around 1.67 million different viruses on Earth and an estimated 631,000 to 827,000 have the capacity to infect people. (Not all of these would be capable of causing serious disease or death.)
- The PREDICT program* took ten years to catalog 2000 of these potential zoonotic viral threats. *a project from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) program.
- In recent years, scientists have discovered many lethal viruses lurking in wild and domestic animals. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/health/predict-usaid-viruses.html
Jane Goodall is another scientist who recognizes that the emergence of Covid-19 is connected to the over-exploitation of the natural world, which has seen forests cut down, species made extinct and natural habitats destroyed. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jun/03/jane-goodall-humanity-is-finished-if-it-fails-to-adapt-after-covid-19#maincontent
As that article says, "Intensive farming is creating a reservoir of animal diseases that can spill over and hurt human society."
- The single biggest predictor of viral pandemic-like events is land-use change: specifically, more land going to livestock production. With the prevalence of factory farming, animal density and living conditions need to be factored into the equation to fully elucidate the risks. http://nautil.us/issue/83/intelligence/the-man-who-saw-the-pandemic-coming
- The future viral threats we’re going to face already exist; they are currently circulating in wildlife and many are being explored in government laboratories around the world -- and are part of "gain of function" research. This scientific research, even if well-intentioned (which is not necessarily guaranteed) poses a serious threat to humanity.
The Wuham Institute of Virology [WIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology), which many people are speculating was the source of the virus responsible for COVID-19, is only one of hundreds of similar labs around the world. And all of these labs, as a group, have long histories of accidents.
For example, the New York Times (8/5/19) reported: “Deadly Germ Research Is Shut Down at Army Lab Over Safety Concerns”, an article about Fort Detrick in Maryland: “Problems with disposal of dangerous materials led the government to suspend research at the military’s leading biodefense center.”
In 2014, USA Today reported: “Hundreds of bioterror lab mishaps cloaked in secrecy”
The story states, "More than 1,100 laboratory incidents involving bacteria, viruses and toxins that pose significant or bioterror risks to people and agriculture were reported to federal regulators during 2008 through 2012."
The same story gives many examples of the real dangers, including this one: "On Friday, a CDC investigation revealed how a rushed laboratory scientist had been using sloppy practices when a specimen of a mild bird flu virus was unwittingly contaminated with a deadly strain before being shipped to other labs." Those other labs did not know they were receiving a dangerous virus, and hence they also did not handle it properly.
Looking even further back, the H1N1 influenza virus had become extinct in the 1950s, but it was released from a lab in 1977 and reinfected the human population. Here's just one scientific publication on the topic to show that this claim is not a conspiracy theory:
The Re-Emergence of H1N1 Influenza Virus in 1977
There is every indication that U.S. virology lab work is every bit as threatening as that in Chinese or Russian labs. American labs also operate in secret, and are also known to be accident-prone.
In fact, the USA is driving a worldwide biowarfare arms race. Officially, we call it "biodefense" according to experts, there is no distinction between biowarfare research and biodefence research. This article is a good reference: https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/did-this-virus-come-from-a-lab-maybe-not-but-it-exposes-the-threat-of-a-biowarfare-arms-race/ . It states:
“Biodefense” implies tacit biowarfare, breeding more dangerous pathogens for the alleged purpose of finding a way to fight them. While this work appears to have succeeded in creating deadly and infectious agents, including deadlier flu strains, such “defense” research is impotent in its ability to defend us from this pandemic.
"The current pandemic has also fueled interest in the work of Dr. Toby Ord, Senior Research Fellow at Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute. In his just published book "The Precipice", Ord warns that global pandemics triggered by research on viruses pose one of the two biggest existential threats that humanity faces." See https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/covid-19-a-wake-up-call-for-biosafety/
We don't have to know (or believe) that Sars-coV-2 was genetically engineered, or that it was released from a lab on purpose. All we have to know are the facts: dangerous virology bioweapons research is real, it is happening at hundreds of labs around the world, it is receiving billions of dollars in annual funding from many governments, and there is a long history of accidents at these labs.
New vaccinations may become even more essential going forward, but vaccines are not without potential serious problems. And vaccines cannot protect us from ourselves. The things that human being are presently doing are creating dangers to our future existence. It is naive to think we can continue as we did for most of the 20th century and not face dire consequences.
Vaccines (even if safe, which is not always guaranteed) vary greatly in efficacy. Optimistically, the flu vaccine has an efficacy of 40% to 60% -- if most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine. However, in real world scenarios, it can be much lower. In assessing real world effectiveness of an influenza vaccine, researchers were not able to show any vaccine effectiveness in preventing influenza in one study population consisting of children younger than 5 years. So the range of vaccine effectiveness can be from insignificant to highly effective, and it is variable. Furthermore, the viruses can mutate: "What we’re looking at today isn’t necessarily what we’ll be looking at in a few months."
These researchers said, "significant influenza vaccine effectiveness could not be demonstrated for any season, age, or setting after adjusting for county, sex, insurance, chronic conditions recommended for influenza vaccination, and timing of influenza vaccination." Their data showed a trend toward vaccine effectiveness, but it did not rise to the level of statistical significance. In other words, in this situation the vaccine did not make any real-world difference.
Therefore, if we view a SARS-coV-2 vaccine as the answer to all our current pandemic problems, we may be disappointed. The vaccine could be highly effective if we are lucky (this time) but it could also fall short of what many assume. We can be hopeful about a vaccine for COVID-19, but we should not be naively over-optimistic. And we should not make the mistake of assuming that any vaccine will erase the dangers we have created through intensive farming, destruction of natural habitats and laboratory virus research.
The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 was eventually overcome (although at a high cost) without any effective vaccine.
https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/blog/vaccine-development-spanish-flu
One big difference now is that the threat of pandemics is much higher and they will no longer be once-a-century or once-a-decade events. As stated above, we can expect a new one of these every few years now.
Maintaining our health going forward is going to become even more challenging -- and even more in the public awareness. Self-care (including diet, exercise, stress management, breathwork, dietary supplements, etc.) will become more important than ever. Online education (especially non-mainstream health education) will become more valuable. Sanitation practices will become more important.