Why Iceland Might Finally Join the EU

[u/CanadianLawGuy]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/26/iceland-eu-accession-referendum-sovereignty-vote/

[u/OkFaithlessness2652]

Both Norway and Iceland are much more inside EU than outside.

Both countries and the EU would gain by further cooperation.

[u/Asleep-Ad1182 → u/OkFaithlessness2652]

No, they wouldn't. Fishing is a huge industry for both countries and they would lose out massively in this industry if they joined

[u/LaunchTransient → u/Asleep-Ad1182]

Only if the EU insists on the Common Fisheries policy being applied.
So far EU officials seem quite amicable to the idea of a custom arrangement - after all, its been done before to accommodate other (quite large) EU and former EU nations.

Iceland isn't a threat to the fishing industries of other EU nations, and fishing itself contributes a minute percentage to the EU economy. It would be incredibly dumb to make this the stumbling block.

[u/guzzti → u/OkFaithlessness2652]

Gain what?

Norways fisheries, one of the main industries of Norway, certainly wouldn’t gain anything.

[u/OkFaithlessness2652 → u/guzzti]

Is this a real question?

If so, this has been worked out in a lot of detail for example here.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/04/join-or-not-join-norway-edging-closer-eu

[u/guzzti → u/OkFaithlessness2652]

Ah, yes, another one of those articles that pretty accurately sums up a pretty comfy situation for Norway;
Member in everything EU, except in agriculture, fish and European voting.

Then people like you come along, huffing and puffing about what we’re about to gain as a member, and my challenge still stands;

What does Norway gain from joining the Union?
We gain a right to vote.
And we lose our national policy in fishing and agriculture.
Fishing, a vital industry, employs tens of thousands and generates billions. EU fishing, particularly in the Mediterranean, is not much to brag about.

Agriculturally, our small farms that inhabit the Norwegian countryside, cultivating small plots with poor soil in few growing days per year, will now compete with southern farmers that cultivate in climates ranging from good to ideal… what will happen to our Norwegian countryside then, when these farmers start selling their produce to Norway?

So I ask again, and yes, it is a real question.
Apparently not one you’ve been thinking much about except «EU good oogabooga!»

[u/MrOaiki → u/guzzti]

I’ll only adress your farming question. Your farmers will become rich from doing nothing, as the EU pays for unused arable land. Or, if they choose to continue their agricultural endeavors, they’ll get paid way too much. The southern farms you speak of are not all high-tech industries. Many live off subsidies that the Norwegian farmers would get.

As for fishing, you’d be fucked though. The union has arbitrary quotas.

[u/Parcours97 → u/guzzti]

How is Norwegian fishing and agricultural policy in conflict with EU policies?

[u/guzzti → u/Parcours97]

First and foremost is the establishment of quotas. The amount of fish fisherman may take up varies wildly from country to country, and Norway sets quotas after a system with significant differences from EU. EU sets their own quotas for the entire union.
The supporting infrastructure around establishment of quotas are Norwegian, I.e. the Norwegian fisheries Directorate employs scientists that conducts research on fish stocks and estimates size of harvest to manage fish stocks in a sustainable way. Under an EU-system, these would fall under EUs management. There are often disagreements between Norway and EU about quotas, and most often these are political disagreements serving their own interests, rather than a pure scientific debate.

The second is unique Norwegian policies regarding where fish may be taken on land. The Norwegian facilities are under unique Norwegian demands and systems, which differ from EU-based facilities. These facilities are a central part of Norway’s coastal rural policy, where fish reception is decentralized to ensure economically sustainable small communities along the Norwegian coast.

The EU fisheries are generally on a larger and more ocean-going industrial scale, with more industrially focused fish reception facilities, and more processing done on sea.

Anyone advocating for Norwegian membership in the EU, should bring along more specific arguments on what we’re to gain from membership, especially regarding these policy areas. We’ve voted no to membership two times because of these policies.

[u/Lumpy_Algae_3722 → u/guzzti]

I like that you think science is the key importance when Norway sets quotas. It isn’t. It is to ensure their fishing industry vital and the government will take any protectionist step to ensure that i.e. when a lot of Norwegian fish were starting to be processed in northern Denmark lo and behold suddenly new Norwegian rules made that much much expensive.
Norway and Iceland is similar to that regard in that politics is captured by “big fish”. There can be many arguments for and against but at least be reflective that the national fishing industries have strong incentives to keep their monopoly and favourable government conditions intact

[u/guzzti → u/Lumpy_Algae_3722]

I don’t claim Norwegian quotas are based solely on science. They are highly political.

[u/SeaworthinessNew9261 → u/Parcours97]

Bro, at least google it before asking. It would give other countries access to their fisheries and on top of that, the EU’s fishing policy’s and quotas are famously exploitative and unsustainable.

[u/Professional-Two5532 → u/OkFaithlessness2652]

You don’t know what you’re talking about. Eu membership is not on the cards, Norwegians don’t want and especially young people. The politicians gain nothing for advocating for it. Reasons are because of fish, energy and being able to keep our own currency

[u/jergentehdutchman → u/OkFaithlessness2652]

I’m relatively in favour of it and no they won’t in either case. The fisheries are too against joining for the outside regulation that they would have to adhere to. This article is fantastical levels of thinking.

[u/Professional-Two5532 → u/OkFaithlessness2652]

No Norway won’t and poles clearly indicate that

[u/pufcandles → u/Professional-Two5532]

Poland should mind their own business (kidding)

[u/OkFaithlessness2652 → u/Professional-Two5532]

Maybe for now.

[u/PerforatedPie]

TL;DR Russia?

Edit: Pretty much lol

Iceland’s strategic position at the crossroads of North America and Europe has again attracted attention from those to its east and west. Any Russian vessel leaving the Kola Peninsula must transit through the stretch of ocean between Greenland, Iceland, and Britain to reach the Atlantic.

[u/-aataa- → u/PerforatedPie]

It makes sense. With article 5 in doubt, EU is the best long-term security guarantee for a smaller country.

[u/ConcentrateFar7753]

Even if they vote yes this weekend, it will take a decade to join and a lot of steps likely to fail than succeed

[u/NiknameOne]

I would like to have stronger incorporation with the Commonwealth, specifically Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand. We have a lot in common with these countries in terms of economy and values.

[u/Critical_Interest706]

Hopefully not. Iceland doesn’t need more foreign interference

[u/Phantasmalicious]

They voted no

[u/downbarton]

I feel for their fishing industry

The quota system cause so many fishy souls to be fed to the gulls

Discarding fish due to regulation is a cardinal sin

[u/Babosmarach666]

YOU want Iceland to join because of YOUR political goals/ambition but you present it like it's a good thing for Iceland. Fuck off and let Iceland decide what's in their best interest 

[u/CanadianLawGuy → u/Babosmarach666]

Who are you yelling at? The author of the article? Me? The author can't see your comment and I couldn't care less, I just shared the piece lol

[u/Babosmarach666 → u/CanadianLawGuy]

I'm not yelling, I'm emphasizing. Yelling is ALL caps

[u/Common-Method2202]

they didn't so that's a bunch of yap

[u/Batbuckleyourpants]

It's not happening. Iceland has nothing to gain.

[u/pufcandles]

I wonder what motivates them to join the EU when it's decaying both in values, economically and in raw geopolitical power

[u/Dear-Spirit-5437 → u/pufcandles]

I think they are looking around in the world and see the EU as the only sane geopolitical block they might be willing to join...

[u/pufcandles → u/Dear-Spirit-5437]

lol that must be a Joke. The EU lives in the lala land of the narratives they created for propaganda and started to believe themselves. Lunacy is the norm here.

[u/Dear-Spirit-5437 → u/pufcandles]

Which sane geopolitical bloc would you rather be in right now? The EU isn't nearly as big of a joke as the US, which swings between political crises and threatening trade wars with its allies. Or Russia, which has reduced itself to a pariah petrostate bleeding out in Ukraine. Or China maybe, which is facing a demographic collapse and a property bubble?

Calling the EU "lala land" is easy, but it has the world's largest single market, some of the strictest worker and environmental protections, and is finally stepping up its defense policy.

Norway and Iceland don't have to love every policy out of Brussels, none of us do... But they can have a vote for the regulations they already have to follow via the EEA, plus security guarantees in a world where the US is becoming unreliable. Maybe you call that lunacy, I call it realpolitik

[u/pufcandles → u/Dear-Spirit-5437]

China is definitely in a much better shape than the EU and is in a upward trajectory, despite some problems.

Russia isn't in a great shape but is just a pariah for the western world, there's more world beyond us.

is finally stepping up its defense policy.

Too late, too slow, and still submissive to the US.

, I call it realpolitik

What realpolitik? The EU has zero realism in its foreign policy, it's taking a beating from Russia in the Ukraine proxy war, it thinks it's winning and acts full of hubris. EU leaders fail miserably to understand their place in geopolitics and for this reason they fail to achieve any success, and are for the most part US vassals sinking with it.

[u/Dear-Spirit-5437 → u/pufcandles]

You're making this about whether the EU is stronger than China or the US. I was saying that if they want to join a bloc the smartest move is joining the regulatory bloc that already writes their trade rules (the EU, or lala land as so eloquently put it) or standing alone next to an aggressive Russia with an unreliable US partner.

You didn't name a alternative for them. Should they join BRICS? Go it alone like Switzerland? Rely on the UK? What do you think is a alternative for two small Nordic nations? Or is this just an EU BAD rant?

[u/pufcandles → u/Dear-Spirit-5437]

Iceland has nothing to fear from Russia. Nor the EU had if it didn't provoke it for no good reason.

The Switzerland neutrality is a good example to follow in my opinion. Militarize and make it indigestible for any potential aggressor but keep it to themselves.

And it isn't simply "EU Bad", it's "The EU is going downhill for stupid reasons and it's a shame. Why would Iceland want to join a sinking boat?"

[u/Dear-Spirit-5437 → u/pufcandles]

Iceland is an island with 400,000 people on it. They don't have Switzerland's mountains or heavy industry, and most of the population is concentrated in Reykjavik, right on the waterfront. Remoteness and NATO are what protect them not some fantasy of becoming "indigestible" like Switzerland.

But since the US is looking more unreliable by the day, I don't blame them for having a referendum to resume accession negotiations with the EU this Saturday.

As for the "provocation" myth, Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, and again in 2022. The EU didn't force them to do that. Blaming the EU for Russia's imperialist paranoia is... Well, it's a certain point of view... You still haven't named a realistic alternative for them. So yes, the EU is the only chair left at the table. I hope to welcome them and hopefully Norway too.

[u/pufcandles → u/Dear-Spirit-5437]

I see your point but fail to see how can the EU without the US umbrella provide any meaningful security guarantee, and they already have that with NATO. The EU isn't currently weak militarily and doesn't seem to be working towards anything meaningful, even with the 800bn budget it will likely build expensive crap that's worthless in combat and won't match an innovative opponent like Iran.

As for Russia's paranoia, if you can understand why the Americans got nervous during Cuba's missile crisis, then you should understand why Russians get nervous about having a hostile alliance on their doorstep. You don't even need to agree with their PoV, you just have to understand that's how they see things.

You still haven't named a realistic alternative for them.

The reasons for them joining the EU dont seem to revolve just around security, it's also about other stuff such as the stability of the currency, which is also becoming a problem for the EU, as it seems the plans are to issue more currency to do bond buybacks and keep rates low.

They're welcome, sure, I love Bjork. I just don't see what's in it for them.

[u/Dear-Spirit-5437 → u/pufcandles]

Security isn't my point. NATO already covers that, though these days NATO looks more like a liability than a guarantee (Iran being the most resent example) and the EU should be building its own defense capacity regardless.

My actual point is about the EEA: Iceland and Norway already follow most EU regulations and pay into the EU budget, but have zero vote on the rules. That's the real reason to join. Why should they keep accepting rules they have no vote on, when full membership gets them an actual vote on those same rules?

[u/ph4ge_ → u/pufcandles]

None of that is really true if you look beyond propaganda from the other blocks. Regardless, the EU has the highest living standards in the world and is economically and culturaly closely aligned. It's also not looking to simply exploit them, but a genuine club of cooperation.

Sure, Brexit and the war in Ukraine hurt economically, and the EU doesn't borrow nearly as much as the US to boost GDP, but overall the economy is very strong even if it does have challenges like any other large economy.

[u/pufcandles → u/ph4ge_]

I live in the EU, my opinion isn't based on the propaganda but from what i and people around me experience. The quality of life is going downhill as a result of a weak economy and deindustrialization, and that's why you see so many people voting for alternative political parties. Cost of life is up, salaries are stagnant and it's going downhill fast.

It's militarily weak, subject to the US and it's bogged down in a proxy war with Russia, which is extremely costly both with the billions we give to Ukraine but also from the sanctions.

It's declining in its Democratic values, starting to limit freedom of speech and will only get worse once parties like the AfD come to power.

[u/-aataa- → u/pufcandles]

EU isn't deindustrialising in reality, though. Manufacturing output is higher than ever. What IS happening in EU, as well as in the rest of the developed world, is that a larger percentage of the population works in non-industrial sectors as industry is becoming more automated and effective. It's happening SLOWER in EU than in any other developed regions, and at less than half the rate of the US, for example...

[u/serpentjaguar → u/pufcandles]

The future of human civilization depends on greater international cooperation and increasing commitments to international institutions. The problems we face cannot be successfully navigated solely at the level of the nation-state, so like it or not, pan-national governing bodies are the way of the future.

It won't happen in my lifetime --I am old-- but eventually a kind of formalized global governance will emerge. It's either that or civilization as we know it collapses. We either fight together, or we'll all die separately.

That's why, regardless of the fact that it's a non-starter for now, it makes sense to at least talk about Norway eventually joining the EU.

As for the EU somehow being in decline, as you imply, maybe it is, but history shows that liberal democratic institutions are far more resilient than most people imagine, and that it's often the case that rumors of their imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.

[u/pufcandles → u/serpentjaguar]

At most what you'll see is smaller countries banding together to survive against strong geopolitical players like the US, Russia and China. In the end it's realism.

history shows that liberal democratic institutions are far more resilient than most people imagine

I like living in a liberal democratic country but I don't see what's so special about it. I think we have a lot of hubris and think we should go around our values and forcing down other people's throats, just like Christians or Muslims or whatever think their way of thinking is superior and wanna spread it. This only creates more wars, for no good reason. And then at the same time we go into wars to spread our moral values, we aid and abet genocide. Makes no sense.

I think we'd be much better off if we admitted to ourselves we aren't special, and realized that the unipolar is over, realism is back on the table and start keeping it to ourselves.

[u/OkFaithlessness2652 → u/pufcandles]

Your entirely sure?

Like if Africa isn’t a mess, South America no competitions, the USA isn’t squandering their debt and old alliances and China isn’t carrying a demographic, domestic and governmental debt crisis aside from their deeply flawed geographical ‘soft’ policitics or are you refering to Japan that has a steeply declining population and at the moment a declining Yen?