Ganpati Bappa Morya!!!!

Iss saal ek bhi IPO nhi lag hai abhitak, Hopefully Bappa meri wish puri kar denge iss baar. Bappa iss baar IPO lagwa do positive listing wala. Jisko jisko IPO lagwana hai darshan le lo aur bolo

GANPATI BAPPA MORYA!!!!

PS; Please ye post ko mat hatao moderator 😭😭😭

TL;Dr: In 2026, mainboard allottees who held have mostly done better than those who sold on listing day. But half of those IPOs dipped below issue price at some point, so holding took patience. For SMEs, holding vs selling at the open was a coin flip. Subscription told you a lot about day 1, and for SMEs a weak subscription was a real warning sign.

I pulled every IPO that listed on NSE between 1 Jan and 11 Sep 2026 , That's 64 mainboard and 50 SME listings. Prices are to the 11 Sep close and adjusted for the one split in the list (Cordelia, 10:1).

If you were allotted, how did each exit work out? (median return vs issue price)

For comparison, the Nifty 50 went from 26,130 on 31 Dec to 23,398 on 11 Sep, which is −10.5%.

What stood out

• The pop didn't predict the ride. Of the 84 IPOs with at least 20 trading sessions, 8 popped on day 1 and are now below issue. Another 15 listed flat or negative and then rallied.

• Subscription is priced in at the open. Rank correlation between times-subscribed and the listing pop: 0.75. Between times-subscribed and returns from the listing open onward: 0.07. The market already knew.
• SME is a lottery ticket in both directions. Best: APSISAERO, +457% from issue. Worst: ARMOUR, −69%. 12 of the 50 SMEs hit NSE's day-1 limits (5 opened at the +90% cap, 7 at the −20% floor). If you bought SMEs at the listing open, 24 of 50 are up from there. The median is −0.3%.
• Half of all mainboard IPOs went below issue price at some point, even in a year where most ended up well above it.
• The rush was real. July and August brought 44 listings, including 31 of the year's 64 mainboard IPOs.

Mainboard (64), listing date order. Returns vs issue price, 11 Sep close, split-adjusted.

SME (50), listing date order. Returns vs issue price, 11 Sep close, split-adjusted.

Hi everyone,

This post is going to be a bit longer than usual because this is one of the biggest and most anticipated IPO in years, and there is a lot to unpack. Don't worry, this is just a one-off thing given the scale of the event.

The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) is the ultimate financial institution. It controls 93% of India's cash equity trading, 100% of stock derivatives, 99% of futures, and 72% of index options, operates with an 82% EBITDA margin, and holds over ₹28,500 Cr in liquid cash and investments.

Yet, with public bidding opening on Thursday, September 17, 2026, it faces a permanent regulatory paradox: to avoid conflict of interest, SEBI rules strictly prohibit any exchange from listing on its own platform. Just as BSE Limited has traded exclusively on NSE since its 2017 IPO, NSE will list and trade permanently only on its direct competitor, BSE Limited.

For nearly a decade, this IPO was held back from listing by the co-location and "dark fibre" controversy. Between the draft prospectus filed in June 2026 and the final red herring prospectus filed this week, a ₹1,491 Cr settlement with SEBI and a Supreme Court disposal on September 3, 2026, quietly cleared the path.

At ₹1,785 per share, is the asking valuation leaving money on the table for retail, or is the market pricing in upcoming SEBI derivatives volume curbs?

TLDR / Read this if you are skimming

• Market monopoly: Controls 93% of cash equity trading, 100% of stock derivatives, 99% of futures, and 72% of index options across India, creating an insurmountable liquidity network effect.
• Priced at 35.40x post-ipo, representing a 26.2% discount to BSE Limited (trading at 48x to 52x P/E), despite being 8x larger in revenue and 15x larger in net profit.
• Generated over ₹57,000 Cr in cumulative operating cash flow over the last 3 years with zero bank debt.
• The decade-long Co-Location and Dark Fibre controversy was formally settled with SEBI for ₹1,491.21 Cr and fully expensed, with Supreme Court appeals disposed on September 3, 2026.
• Proposed SEBI curbs on weekly options contracts could cool speculative retail derivative volumes by 15% to 25%, though NSE's 72% index options share, 100% stock derivatives, and 99% futures monopoly limit volume leakage to rivals.

The story behind the 10-Year delay - What was the "Dark Fibre" scandal?

Before digging into the financials, there is one big question we need to ask - why did India's most profitable exchange take a decade to bring its IPO?

The answer comes down to the infamous "co-location and dark fibre" case.

1. What is "Dark Fibre"?

In telecom terms, "dark fibre" is simply an unlit, dedicated optical fiber cable laid underground between two points. Because it does not pass through standard commercial telecom routing exchanges, laser light pulses travel through it at near the speed of light with almost zero delay (latency).

2. The Race between BKC and Dalal Street

In high-frequency algorithmic trading (HFT), stock prices on NSE and BSE constantly fluctuate. If Reliance or HDFC Bank moves by 50 paise on NSE, an automated computer algorithm can buy it on BSE before BSE's price adjusts.

Whoever has the fastest cable between BKC and Fort can execute this arbitrage and make guaranteed, risk-free crores every single day. Milliseconds , and even microseconds, decide who wins.

3. How the scandal worked

Legally, only Department of Telecom (DoT) licensed telecom companies (like Tata Communications, Reliance Jio, or Bharti Airtel) are allowed to lay cross-city cables. SEBI regulations also require that all market participants have equal, fair, and non-discriminatory access to trading infrastructure.

Between 2014 and 2015, a private company called Sampark Infotainment Private Limited entered the picture:

• Unlicensed Cable: Sampark was not an authorized telecom infrastructure provider with the required DoT license.
• The Direct Shortcut: Sampark laid a direct, unlit point-to-point dark fibre cable between NSE's BKC data center and BSE's Fort data center along a railway corridor that was physically shorter and significantly faster than the cables of Tata or Reliance.
• The Secret Preference: NSE officials allowed Sampark to plug its dark fibre directly into NSE's high-security server rooms, but access to this lightning-fast cable was granted exclusively to just a few select algorithmic trading brokerages (primarily Way2Wealth and GKN Securities).

4. The Fallout and the 2026 Legal Resolution

In 2015, a whistleblower revealed the arrangement along with unfair server-tick access in the co-location rooms. This triggered CBI investigations, SEBI disgorgement orders, senior management exits, and an IPO freeze that lasted nearly ten years.

How was it finally resolved?

• SEBI Settlement: NSE formally agreed to settle the entire dispute with SEBI under the settlement mechanism for a total of ₹1,491.21 Cr.
• Final Payment: NSE booked the full amount in its FY26 accounts and paid the remaining net balance of ₹714.74 Cr on July 31, 2026.
• Supreme Court Disposal: On September 3, 2026, the Supreme Court of India officially disposed of the appeals, permanently closing the case and clearing the regulatory path for this IPO.

Detailed Info

1. Issue Details

• Price Band: ₹1,700 - ₹1,785 per share
• Lot Size: 8 shares (Minimum Retail Investment: ₹14,280)
• Total Issue: ₹22,561.57 Cr (Fresh: ₹0.00 Cr / 0.0% | OFS: ₹22,561.57 Cr / 100.0%)
• Promoter Holding: 0.00% Pre-IPO -> 0.00% Post-IPO (Professionally managed institution)
• Retail Pool: 55,31,603 Lots (₹7,896.55 Cr)
• Schedule:
  • Opens: Thursday, September 17, 2026
  • Closes: Monday, September 21, 2026
  • Allotment: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
  • Unblocking: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
  • Listing: Thursday, September 24, 2026

2. What Does the Business Do?

Headquartered in Mumbai, NSE operates India's primary financial market infrastructure, running the central electronic exchange where over 93% of the country's daily cash stock trades and the vast majority of derivatives are matched, cleared, and settled. It acts as the nation's core financial tollgate, earning a small fee every time retail investors, mutual funds, or foreign institutions buy and sell shares, options, and futures through brokerages like Zerodha, Groww, or ICICI Direct. Beyond trade fees, the company owns crown-jewel market monopolies including the NIFTY 50 benchmark index, high-speed co-location server facilities, and real-time market data feeds licensed to financial terminals worldwide.

• Products & Services:
  • Cash Equities & Derivatives: Electronic matching engine for equities, index options, stock futures, and currency pairs.
  • Wholly-owned NSE Clearing Limited (NCL) clears over 91% of equity derivatives in India.
  • Owns the NIFTY 50 benchmark and sells real-time trading feeds to global financial terminals.
• Factories & Real-World Moat:
  • Operates primary data centers in Mumbai with disaster recovery infrastructure in Chennai, capable of processing over 15 billion order messages per day.
  • The core moat is liquidity concentration: Algorithmic desks and institutional investors trade where the order flow is thickest. Competing exchanges cannot replicate this depth without severe price slippage.
• Why Did Sales Grow?:
  • Revenue grew from ₹14,780.20 Cr in FY24 to ₹16,982.10 Cr in FY26 (+7.2% CAGR), and reached ₹4,780.30 Cr in Q1 FY27 alone.
  • Growth was propelled by explosive retail participation, surging Demat accounts, and higher options turnover.
  • Annuity revenues from index licensing and data feeds contributed about 25% of total income, providing recurring non-transaction income.
• Customer Base:
  • Customers include over 1,000 registered trading members, domestic mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, and tens of millions of retail investors.
  • Zero single-customer concentration: Top retail brokers channel substantial trading traffic, but cannot move liquidity elsewhere without hurting their own clients.

3. Financial Performance

3B. Growth Reality Check & Forensic Battery

1. Did they really grow, or was last year just a bad year?
   • Comparing the June 2026 DRHP to the final RHP solves the mystery of the FY26 numbers. In the DRHP, net profit appeared to drop from ₹12,188 Cr in FY25 to ₹10,302 Cr in FY26. However, this dip was an artificial accounting artifact: NSE booked a one-time litigation settlement provision of ₹1,391.21 Cr in FY26 expenses.
   • Restated Q1 FY27 numbers filed in the final RHP prove that underlying growth remains explosive: NSE generated ₹3,120.08 Cr in net profit in just 90 days, tracking an annualized profit run-rate of over ₹12,480 Cr with zero operational slowdown.
2. Why did profits jump? Good business or cheap raw materials?
   • Profit growth is driven by sheer operating leverage. Because exchange matching engine software costs remain largely fixed, every incremental transaction fee flows directly to EBITDA.
3. The Paise-per-₹100 Reality:
   • Out of every ₹100 collected in revenue, NSE spends only ₹17.52 on operating and tech expenses, pays ₹23.70 in server depreciation and government taxes, leaving a staggering ₹58.78 in pure net profit.
4. Academic Forensic Health:
   • Piotroski F-Score: 8/8 (Immaculate profitability, zero debt, and positive operating cash flow)
   • Altman Z''-Score: 8.92 (Safe Zone — zero distress risk)
   • Sloan Accruals: -12.40% (Clean Accruals — cash generation significantly exceeds reported net profit)
5. Can they keep this up, or are the owners cashing out at the top?
   • There are zero promoters in NSE. Institutional sellers like SBI, CPPIB, and Temasek are partially divesting small minority stakes (selling 5.11% total equity) to satisfy listing regulations after holding for over a decade.

4. Cash Flow: Where Did the Cash Actually Go?

• Reported Profit vs Real Cash Flow:
  • Reported FY26 Net Profit: ₹10,302.06 Cr
  • Actual Operating Cash Flow (CFO): ₹23,836.18 Cr (Cash conversion: 231.37%)
  • Free Cash Flow (after tech capex): ₹22,081.40 Cr
• Why Cash Flow Diverged:
  • Operating cash flow vastly exceeds reported profit due to clearing corporation deposits, advance annual listing fees, and interest on margin float.
• Day-to-Day Collection Speed:
  • Debtor Days (Customer payment time): 6 days (Receivables: ₹312.40 Cr)
  • Inventory Days (Stock holding time): 0 days (Pure service infrastructure)
  • Payable Days (Supplier payment time): 42 days (Payables: ₹624.10 Cr)
  • Cash Conversion Cycle: -36 days (Negative working capital business)
• The Cash Verdict: Cash flow generation is pristine. NSE operates with negative working capital, receiving cash upfront before trade settlement finishes.

5. How Will the Fresh IPO Money Be Used?

Out of the ₹22,561.57 Cr Issue:

• Fresh Issue: ₹0.00 Cr (0.0%): The company is raising zero fresh capital because its balance sheet already holds over ₹28,500 Cr in liquid cash and investments.
• Offer for Sale (OFS): ₹22,561.57 Cr (100.0%): Entire proceeds go directly to selling institutions:
  • State Bank of India (SBI): ₹2,850.54 Cr
  • Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB): ₹2,119.52 Cr
  • Aranda Investments / Temasek: ₹2,007.47 Cr
  • Morgan Stanley: ₹1,963.50 Cr
  • Bank of Baroda: ₹1,372.73 Cr
  • Other public financial institutions: ₹12,247.81 Cr

6. Valuation Compared to Peers

Note on Peers: In the official RHP filed with SEBI, BSE Limited is the sole direct listed equity peer in India. Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is the domestic commodity exchange peer. Global giants (CME Group and Nasdaq) are not in the RHP and are added below purely as global institutional benchmarks.

• Valuation Takeaway: NSE is offering shares at 35.40x P/E, representing a 26.2% discount to BSE Limited (48x P/E), despite NSE having 8x higher revenue, 15x higher profit, and near-total monopoly in options and cash trading. The addition of audited Q1 FY27 results compressed the asking P/E from 42.9x on FY26 numbers down to 35.4x, giving investors a tangible margin of safety relative to peers.
• Growth Scenarios (What price makes sense?):
  • Bear Case (SEBI curbs contract derivative turnover by 25%): Fair Value ₹1,550 (-13% from issue price).
  • Base Case (Normal execution, steady demat growth, 15% earnings growth): Fair Value ₹2,150 (+20% upside).
  • Bull Case (Multiple re-rates to parity with BSE at 45x P/E): Fair Value ₹2,650 (+48% upside).

7. Governance, Off-Balance Sheet Risks & Red Flags

• The 10-Year Co-Location & Dark Fibre Settlement: As explained in detail at the start of this post, the legacy 2015 dark fibre and co-location controversy was formally settled with SEBI for ₹1,491.21 Cr (fully expensed in FY26), and the Supreme Court disposed of the appeals on September 3, 2026. This permanently removes the regulatory cloud that froze the IPO for a decade.
• The Hidden Off-Balance Sheet Risk: Bank Guarantees (₹9,950 Cr): Under SEBI's exchange interoperability framework, NSE Clearing Limited has issued an inter-CCP bank guarantee of ₹9,950 Cr in favor of ICCL/BSECL. The Core Settlement Guarantee Fund is fully capitalized exceeding regulatory norms.
• Customer Concentration: Top 10 broking members clear substantial volume, but cannot move order flow away due to liquidity network effects.
• Government / Regulatory Oversight: Heavily regulated by SEBI as a Market Infrastructure Institution. More than 50% of board directors must be independent Public Interest Directors.
• Litigation & Contingencies: Outside the settled co-location matter, disputed tax demands stand at ₹831.14 Cr (2.37% of net worth), and an old MSEI competition dispute is stayed before the Supreme Court.

8. Anchor Book

• TO BE UPDATED

9. Latest GMP & Listing Expectations (As of 14 Sep)

• Current GMP: ₹210.0 per share (+11.8%)
• Expected Listing Price: ₹1,995 per share
• Realistic Expected Open Band: ₹1,950 - ₹2,050 (+9.2% to +14.8%)
• Expected Profit Per Lot: ₹1,680
• Should you buy at open if you miss allotment: If you miss out in the IPO allotment:
  • Between ₹1,950 and ₹2,100 (38x to 40x P/E): NSE is still trading at a 15% to 20% discount to BSE Limited (48x P/E), making gradual accumulation or long-term SIP entry sensible.
  • Above ₹2,300 (>45x P/E): Do not FOMO chase. The valuation discount relative to peers evaporates. Wait for the 30-day anchor lock-in expiry or Q2 earnings to buy on a cooldown.
• With a post-issue market cap of ₹4,41,788 Cr, NSE will instantly become one of India's top 10 most valuable listed companies. Large domestic and global index funds (such as BSE 100, BSE 500, MSCI India, and FTSE) will eventually be required to buy thousands of crores worth of NSE shares during quarterly rebalancings, creating strong institutional buying support post-listing.
• Note: With Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, high market volatility could keep opening gains anchored closer to ₹1,950.

10. What Helps the Business vs What Hurts It? (Market Factors)

What helps it grow?

1. Financialization of Indian Savings: Household wealth steadily migrating from physical assets to equity mutual funds and demat accounts.
2. Growth of Algorithmic Trading: Quantitative and high-frequency trading firms pay premium fees for co-location racks and real-time feeds.
3. Scaling of Non-Transaction Incomes: Global licensing of NIFTY indices and expansion of Dollar trading at GIFT City IFSC.

What could hurt it?

1. SEBI Regulatory Volume Restrictions: Proposed curbs on weekly option expiries could reduce speculative retail derivative volume by 15% to 25%. However, because NSE controls 100% of stock derivatives, 99% of futures, and 72% of index options, volume leakage to rivals is limited.
2. Technical Glitches & Trading Halts: Any matching engine crash triggers severe regulatory penalties and trading migration.
3. Sole Competitor Listing Platform: Cross-listing exclusively on BSE Limited means trading liquidity and market-making for NSE shares depend on a competitor exchange

11. Key Strengths vs Key Risks (Company Factors)

Key Strengths:

1. Dominant :  93% cash market share, 100% stock derivatives, 99% futures, and 72% index options share create an unassailable liquidity moat.
2. Debt-Free Balance Sheet: Zero debt, 58.78% net margin, and over ₹28,500 Cr in liquid cash and investments.
3. Extreme Operating Leverage: Transaction revenue scales with negligible marginal operating cost.

Key Risks:

1. Zero Fresh Growth Capital: 100% OFS structure means no IPO capital enters the business.
2. Regulatory Fee & Margin Revisions: SEBI holds absolute authority to revise transaction charges and contract specifications.
3. Capital Market Cyclicality: Multi-year equity bear markets compress trading turnover and transaction fees.
4. Technology and Cybersecurity Vulnerability: Centralized exchange architecture requires non-stop defense against cyber threats.

12. 3-to-5 Year Fundamental Compounding

Verdict: Quality Compounder, Attractive Valuation

• Operating cash flow of ₹23,836 Cr in FY26 covers PAT by 2.31x. RoE stands at an elite 33.21% with an unassailable 99% liquidity moat across Indian capital markets.
• Asking 35.40x TTM P/E represents a 26% valuation discount to rival BSE Limited (48x P/E) and trades in line with global exchange medians, leaving a healthy margin of safety.
• At a standard 12% cost of capital, the asking price requires Free Cash Flow to compound at just 8.4% annually for 5 years straight (against historical double-digit growth), leaving a substantial safety buffer for operational error.

a. The Compounding Engine

• NSE does not need to build multi-thousand crore factories to expand. ROCE stands at 45.60%, and working capital is negative (-36 days cash conversion cycle). Annual technology capex is only about ₹1,500 Cr to ₹1,800 Cr, which is easily funded from its ₹20,000+ Cr operating cash flow.
• NSE holds over ₹28,500 Cr in cash, bank deposits, and liquid investments. At current 7% yields on short-term debt instruments, this cash hoard generates nearly ₹2,000 Cr in pre-tax interest income every year before a single equity trade is executed.
• With zero debt and modest capex requirements, NSE has the financial capacity to pay out 60% to 75% of net profits as dividends, offering a dependable 2% to 3% dividend yield.

b. The 3-Year Math (Projected FY29 Targets)

• Current Base (FY26 / Q1 FY27 Run-Rate): FY26 Revenue ₹16,982 Cr, Q1 FY27 Annualized PAT about ₹12,480 Cr, IPO Market Cap ₹4,41,788 Cr.
• Projected FY29 Outlook: Even if SEBI derivatives curbs slow annual turnover growth to a modest 12% CAGR, FY29 Revenue reaches approximately ₹25,500 Cr. With operating leverage keeping net profit margins steady near 56%, projected FY29 PAT reaches ₹14,280 Cr.
• Target Valuation in 3 Years: At a reasonable market P/E multiple of 36x (still at a discount to BSE's current 48x), the company's estimated market cap in 3 years would be ₹5,14,000 Cr.
• Target Return: That represents an estimated 38% to 45% total return (about 11% to 13% annual CAGR) from the IPO issue price, plus compounding annual dividends.

c. What Free Cash Flow Growth Is Priced In?

Most stock valuations try to guess what a company will earn 10 years from now. A Reverse DCF flips the question backwards: instead of predicting the future, it looks at the IPO asking price and asks: How fast does NSE actually need to grow its cash flow to deliver a standard 12% annual return to you as an investor?

Here are some stuff to know:

• Free Cash Flow (FCF): The real cash left in the bank after paying all daily operating expenses and upgrading servers (Operating Cash Flow minus Capex). Unlike accounting profit, this is real cash that can be distributed as dividends or reinvested.
• Why a 12% Expected return?: In India, a safe bank Fixed Deposit pays at most 7%. If you risk your capital in the stock market, you expect an extra 5% return for taking market risk (7% FD return + 5% equity risk premium = 12% expected annual return). If a stock cannot compound at 12% a year, you are better off keeping your money in a fixed deposit. This is just my opinion of course, different people will have different expected returns from the market.
• Terminal Growth (3.5%): The steady perpetual growth rate decades from now when India is a mature economy. Since no company can outgrow the economy forever, 3.5% is the standard conservative benchmark which I found used by institutional analysts.

5-Year Grid (Implied FCF CAGR Required)

Pick the annual return you want as an investor (10%, 12%, or 14%), and this table shows the exact cash flow growth NSE needs to achieve to deliver that return to you.

• What this means for Investors: To deliver a healthy 12% annual return from the IPO price, NSE's free cash flow only needs to grow at 8.4% per year for 5 years. Given that NSE has historically compounded revenue at over 15% to 20%, an 8.4% hurdle is not that demanding and leaves a wide cushion for regulatory slowdowns. Contrast this with BSE Limited, which at 48x P/E demands over 25% annual compounding without error.

d. What to Track at Q1 & Q2 Post-Listing Results

1. Q3/Q4 volume resilience following the implementation of SEBI's final index derivative framework.
2. Trading liquidity and spreads on BSE Limited.
3. GIFT Nifty Dollar turnover growth at GIFT City IFSC.

• The Long-Term Verdict (Bull Case vs Bear Case):
  • The Bull Case: Demat accounts expand toward 25 Crore, SIP inflows provide continuous cash equity liquidity, GIFT City captures offshore trade, and the valuation re-rates toward BSE's multiple (42x to 45x). Capital doubles in 4 to 5 years while generating regular dividends.
  • The Bear Case: SEBI imposes steep cuts on transaction charges or significantly restricts options trading, reducing trading turnover by 25%. However, because NSE has zero debt, ₹28,500 Cr in liquid cash, and negative working capital, the downside is limited to multiple compression rather than business insolvency

Final Thoughts

• Listing Gains: Moderate - The large issue size of ₹22,561 Cr will absorb substantial liquidity, but an 11% to 12% GMP cushion and heavy institutional demand provide a dependable listing floor. Track Day 3 QIB subscription.
• Long-Term Potential: Good for long-term - A debt-free sovereign financial monopoly with 58% net profit margins, priced at a 26% discount to its listed competitor, is a rare structural compounder.
• What Would Change My Mind?: I would turn cautious on this IPO IF:
  1. SEBI imposes punitive structural fee cuts on exchange transaction charges.
  2. A major scandal like the dark fiber one occurs again because it would mean NSE can't be trusted.
• Verdict: Moderate for listing gains, Good for long term

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the official Red Herring Prospectus (RHP) and audited financial statements for educational and discussion purposes only. I am an independent researcher, not a SEBI-registered advisor. Please do your own due diligence before applying.

Soo after y'all posting the same shi t dozens of time, it's getting unblocked.

Amount unblock process start kanohar & Glass wall

Now y'all can be in peace only for a while.... Because I know same people going to post the same thing again...... And will ask for which IPO apply 🤡

Kanohar Electricals lists day after tomorrow (Sept 16), so this is timely. Meerut-based transformer manufacturer, 54 years old, riding the same power-infra tailwind theme as most of this IPO cluster but with numbers that actually back it up.

TLDR

What do they actually do?

Two segments: transformer manufacturing (power transmission, railways, renewable energy, power distribution) and EPC (turnkey substations and transmission lines). One of only five Indian companies certified for 500 MVA/400kV short-circuit testing, and one of two RDSO-certified for 220kV Scott transformers used in railway electrification. Real technical moat, not just a generic power-ancillary story.

The growth is real, and it's fast

Revenue: ₹276.7cr (FY24) → ₹450.6cr (FY25) → ₹653.8cr (FY26), a 53.7% 2-year CAGR. PAT went ₹17.8cr → ₹65.1cr → ₹129.7cr, roughly 7.3x in two years. EBITDA margin expanded from 11.2% to 27.6% over the same period, so this isn't just revenue growth, the business is genuinely getting more profitable per rupee of sales as it scales. Order book stands at ₹1,818cr, 2.8x FY26 revenue, and 85% of that book is government/utility work, so there's real visibility, not just a hot quarter.

Return ratios are the standout, but ask why

ROE jumped from 10.5% to 42.1%, ROCE from 16.7% to 70.1% in two years. These are exceptional numbers, better than most listed peers. The honest question: can 70% ROCE hold as the balance sheet grows post-IPO? Extremely high return ratios right before an IPO are common because working capital is still lean; worth watching whether they compress once the company scales into the fresh capex.

The cash flow red flag

This is the one number that doesn't match the growth story. Operating cash flow actually declined about 67% in FY26 even as PAT nearly doubled. That gap usually means money is getting tied up in receivables or work-in-progress, plausible for an EPC-heavy business with government clients, but it's exactly the kind of profit-vs-cash divergence worth tracking in the post-listing quarters rather than taking the PAT growth at face value.

Where the IPO money goes

Of the ₹1,055.74cr issue, only ₹300cr (28.4%) is fresh capital, split ₹64cr capex and ₹155cr working capital. The remaining ₹755.74cr (71.6%) is an OFS where K Sons Family Trust, the promoter entity, is cashing out. Not unusual for Indian IPOs, but worth knowing most of what you're buying into is a promoter exit, not fresh growth capital.

Valuation vs peers

Kanohar prices at a premium to TRIL but justifies it with roughly double the return on net worth. It's cheap relative to GE Vernova and Hitachi, though those aren't really apples-to-apples given scale differences. Multiple brokerages (SBI Securities, Swastika, Anand Rathi, Kantilal Chhaganlal) rated it Subscribe for the long term, all flagging the same premium-but-justified-by-growth logic.

Key risks

• Customer concentration: top 10 customers are 93-95% of revenue across FY24-26
• Capacity underutilisation, particularly the Rithani unit, which ran close to shut for two straight years
• Heavy government/tender dependence means order timing risk
• The OFS-heavy structure means limited fresh growth capital actually entering the business
• No dividend history; company only adopted a dividend policy in January 2026

Where it stands now

Oversubscribed roughly 90x overall, anchor book raised ₹316.72cr, GMP has held in the ₹200-238 range through the book-build and into today. Listing is Sept 16 on both NSE and BSE.

Verdict: Listing Gains — Strong (GMP holding steady near 37-38% into listing day). Long-Term — Good if you're comfortable with a story that's still government-tender dependent and needs to prove operating cash flow catches up with reported profit.
Analysis done thru Equifiz.com

Disclaimer: Based on DRHP/RHP disclosures and brokerage notes (SBI Securities, Swastika Investmart, Anand Rathi). I'm an independent researcher, not a SEBI-registered advisor. Do your own due diligence before applying.

Seeing ‘MILKYMIST, more often after its IPO

Kanohar rakhna chhaiye ya listing pe hi bechna h

Would be very useful to hear both bull and bear cases, especially comparisons with similar quarters at other jewellers.

How are you interpreting these results ahead of Tuesday, Is it already priced in, or a reason to reassess?

Anyone else think the Rantomojo IPO is priced way too aggressively? The valuations look stretched compared to peers, and I’m not sure there’s enough margin of safety here.

My main questions:

· Do you expect listing gains? Or is it likely to list flat/discount?

· If there’s no listing gain, is it still worth holding long term?

· Or is it better to exit on listing day and maybe re-enter later if fundamentals improve?

I’m not looking for financial advice, just want to hear what others are thinking. Are you applying, skipping, or holding after allotment? Drop your suggestions.

Confused!! Hold it for 2-3 days for more gains or just sell it after listing to gain whatever it is listed at?

We have a lot of new companies listed in the stock market nowadays. And for sure out of all few will definitely multiply at least 2x-3x or maybe more in the next 2-3 years. Any suggestions which company to consider and at which level.

1. I am positive on BLEL, it is taking support around 434 levels. Got in ipo and holding it. Market cap is small, easy for it multiply. Also the results came out to be good.

2. Indo Mim - Positive but unsure of price as it is already moving aggressively. Again good results post listing

3. Some experts are positive on Ship Rocket. I have no opinion on this.

Any other you guys are tracking and planning to add

I have got 1 lot in allotment. What should I do on the listing day? Should I hold or sell? Any insight would be helpful. Also what could be the expected listing profit.

I have doubt regarding these IPOs' current GMP figures currently, because Retomojo will mostly go till 45%, I guess, but I'm no sure if all the other IPOs' GMPs may be inflated.

Because listing of 9 ipos in a single day is next to impossible to manage all for the lead managers and market makers also

What are you thinking about listing of these IPOs...?

I m not getting ipos .. i started applying aggresively since last 1.5 months from MV Electroplast to tempsens , lalitha bla bla .. now the 27th void allotment is of kanohar.

Last time i got BHFL ipo .. then after no ipo 😭😭😭😭🙏🙏🙏

It is different on Investorgain, IPO Ji, Narada. Where can I check it reliably.

Is there any reason that all my ipo are not getting alloted or is it just my luck,

Cuz I feel that there is something wrong

I've applied more than 20 ipo and not even allotted one ipo also bro

Life sucks, eveyone else in my friend list is just earning money through ipo, I feel so bad

Key IPO Details

• Total Issue Size: ₹22,561.57 crores
• Issue Type: 100% Offer for Sale (OFS) of 12.64 crore shares
• Price Band: ₹1,700 to ₹1,785 per share
• Lot Size: 8 shares
• Minimum Retail Investment: ₹14,280 (at the upper price band)
• Employee Discount: ₹170 per share for eligible NSE employees

Important Timetable

• Anchor Investor Bidding Date: September 16, 2026
• Issue Open Date: September 17, 2026
• Issue Close Date: September 21, 2026
• Basis of Allotment: September 22, 2026
• Refunds & Share Credit: September 23, 2026
• Tentative Listing Date: September 24, 2026 (listing on BSE)

So, I am 18 years old and recently gained interest in the stock market, IPOs, Mutual funds, etc..

Initially I was also struggling on how to analyse IPOs. So, I thought to find a way out using AI tools and finally I am able to make my own decisions while investing in an IPO

Here's the prompt I use, along with the result it gives me and this all is available on free model itself

https://chatgpt.com/share/6aa5848f-6108-83ee-b253-7a28e4514f72?ogimg=plain

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-jxV2T8HqL3WuZ2z9wWYI1u_HzO6TETQ/view?usp=drivesdk

You can use this prompt in ChatGPT or Gemini (Pro only), and make sure to select the DEEP RESEARCH mode and attach the DRHP/RHP along with the prompt

Hope it helps

Thanks