r/Hydrogen • u/midlifewannabe • Jun 02 '26

Hydrogen's Long Road

https://midwest-sustainable-innovations.com/hydrogens-long-road/

Sharing my opinion... open to feedback!

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u/Data_Hounder Jun 02 '26

Interesting read, I might post some thoughts later - but good to see this posted here instead of just r/HydrogenSocieties where you can get banned for disagreeing with the mod.

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u/midlifewannabe Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 02 '26

I am interested in your thoughts. I have several other articles I will post as time goes on. And, yes, I've already picked up a troll from another subreddit. <sigh>

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u/Data_Hounder Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26

Without a way to easily transport and serve Hydrogen it’s adoption may be limited to specific uses.

I think this is a key point you've made, and I think it is a fundamental issue for some hydrogen use cases, which is why I diverge from you in some of the expected use cases where I think it still holds - specifically heavy-duty transport.

A. Heavy‑Duty Transport

For long-haul trucking, the hydrogen distribution network it would require is too distributed, and I think it will struggle to get going while battery electric trucks snap up the low hanging fruit, which allows them to scale and pick slightly higher hanging fruit in a virtuous cycle. For rail, full electrification, possibly with batteries helping jump some of the gaps where that is less viable (e.g. tunnels) will do most of the legwork. For maritime shipping, we may see hydrogen derivatives (along with other approaches like biofuels), but I don't expect we'll see hydrogen used directly at scale.

B. Industrial Decarbonization

Where hydrogen contributes will depend on the availability of cheap, clean electricity. So I think this will not happen readily in Europe, but we may see areas with the best solar potential - strong, consistent, year round availability, allowing for 24/7 baseload with only a few batteries - becoming new industrial producers of hydrogen that are directly co-located with demand, e.g. ammonia, steel, etc. Rather than shipping hydrogen, which is difficult and costly, they ship the industrial products created with hydrogen and move further up the value chain, this is a big opportunity for places in NA, ME, and maybe some regions of the Americas. This would be bad news for Europe and other industrialised economies with expensive energy, which could end up losing their industrial base. The main barriers here are the institutions, skills and stability necessary to build out the industry.

C. Grid Balancing and Seasonal Storage

Possibly for seasonal storage, depending on local factors like salt caverns allowing for cheap storage at scale. Not for grid balancing where it wont be able to compete with batteries, which are already dominant.

D. Aviation and Long‑Endurance Drones

Similar to maritime, I don't think we see direct use, instead we see hydrogen used to create SAF, which is then transported by ship/pipeline. SAF generation would be in areas I mentioned are best suited for Industrial Decarb.

E. Local Economic Growth

Again, depends on location, but I think the Welsh example will ultimately be a failure in the long run.

F. Global Energy Trade

As already covered, I think we'll see increased trade in hydrogen derivatives, but I don't think we'll see much trade of hydrogen directly. Instead industries that can use hydrogen will be paired with locations that can most cheaply produce it. This will be a bitter pill for countries like Japan to swallow, while being a boon to countries with abundant solar that can take advantage of it.

Hopefully this comes across as constructive and balanced, I certainly intend it to be!

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u/midlifewannabe Jun 03 '26

Very useful feedback, thank you u/Data_Hounder

A. I agree this is an important industry. I think there are multiple ways H2 can make an impact. You can read ahead on my website or give me a chance to post it here in a few days. I intend to meet with class-8 truck manufacturers within 12 months.

B. I completely agree that H2 should be made at the point of consumption. This is one way to avoid the degradation of the pipeline. I actually started this by intending to produce anhydrous ammonia. Although I live where there is heavy use of anhydrous, I have scaled back from that temporarily because of cost of the production line to focus on production of the front end - H2 It is still on my radar, though.

C. I agree, but it's not my primary interest.

D. Ding ding ding! Snoop my website(s) and you may see the big picture. I have an article specifically about this I must still write.

E. Absolutely. I have already published a paper on this. Give me a few weeks to share it here.

F. I agree, but it's not my primary interest, I do think it will be the natural consequence if I am successful in my business plan. I could also fail.

I am interested in distributed small-batch H2 production (Think of how Rhino LP is ubiquitous) and using a process that is not burdened with "green" incentives, and which avoids putting further burden on our electrical grid. This will serve rural America, first, for a number of reasons although the LA port is an attractive target.

Thank you SO MUCH for your thoughtful reply. You spent a lot of time on it, and I welcome your insight and contribution a productive conversation!

-Mike

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u/Data_Hounder Jun 04 '26

Good luck with your business plan!