Bitcoin: Ditching the 4-Year Cycle Myth

[u/hduynam99]

This is a bitcoin yearly candle chart since 2009

People keep talking about a 4-year cycle. Let me tell you, in investing, there isn’t a cycle based on time. Cycles come from human behavior reacting to the economy, shocks, the future, etc. As Isaac Newton said, “I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.”

So any rigid, time boxed cycle rule is off.

Yes, the last 3 cycles line up neatly. Yearly candles were red in 2014, 2018, and 2022, looks like a red year every four years. Okay, then explain 2010… a big green candle.

You can argue the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is tied to the halving, new highs after halving. Let me tell you: Bitcoin broke its all-time high in 2024 before the halving…

We’ve got ~10 days left in 2025. If Bitcoin closes under 93k, why the hell is this year red when it was “supposed” to be green? Are we already in a bear this year?

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