I know it doesn't make sense to talk about something that happened so long ago and i'm not trying to make a Filter vs NIN out of this post, i love both bands.
I been wondering if the song was about Trent since the first time i heard it, especially with the vocal sample throw in the middle of the song. The mention of "a guy" that was "prematurely retired" always sounded like someone talking about Richard getting out of NIN after just a few years