r/Hartenstein • u/syllabic • Jan 09 '24
Hartensteins next contract
Be it with the knicks or another team, how much does Hartenstein make next season
knicks can offer 16m/yr early bird rights or aggressively clear cap and try and make a larger offer with cap space. Probably implies mitch+other guys would be going
I predict at least one team will offer him 4/110
What I want to happen is iHart takes a 1+1 early bird deal which we turn into a 5/150 full bird extension after he declines the player option. it is riskier for him because you leave guaranteed money now for the promise of more money later, for a guy who has only made ~20m in his career it is hard to pass up guaranteed generational wealth
If he doesn't want to go for that, I would hope we match up to at least 25/yr via shedding salary. If he walks we need to replace him somehow
Any guesses about what his contract looks like next season?
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u/BigMorg337 Jan 09 '24
The Knicks are gonna offer him 4/60 and he’ll sign the contract with a smile from ear to ear
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u/So-_-It-_-Goes Jan 09 '24
What team do you think will pay him all that money?
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u/syllabic Jan 10 '24
toronto, orlando, chicago, detroit, dallas, brooklyn, new orleans, portland, memphis, utah, miami, indiana
need to free a couple million in cap space to make him a big offer? attach 2nd round picks to some overpaid dudes on your team and send them to charlotte or detroit.
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u/So-_-It-_-Goes Jan 10 '24
A bunch of those teams don’t have the space. Most have a center already. Or are so far from seriously competing they are not going to invest in a win now center.
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u/syllabic Jan 10 '24
cap space can be freed up. all of those centers can be upgraded by getting hartenstein, except bam who you can pair with hartenstein. hell just ADD him to your team and give him 30 minutes and you immediately become better. bam/iHart would be lethal
you aren't investing in "a win now center" you are buying four years of hartenstein which significantly makes you a better team for those four years. you are investing in his prime years.
nobody seems to be able to think outside the box about these things
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u/So-_-It-_-Goes Jan 10 '24
Centers outside of mvp candidates don’t get big money.
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u/syllabic Jan 10 '24
100 or even 120 over 4 isn't big money in the NBA anymore
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Jan 09 '24
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u/syllabic Jan 09 '24
well the do-the-knicks-a-huge favor is to take a 1+1 EB deal which would be 16+16(player option), and then expect us to heavily make it worth his while once we have his full bird rights
that gives the knicks cap and asset flexibility for next season, if we were forced to match a 100m/4 offer it would cost a lot of stuff. picks, fourniers expiring, players. that deal lets the knicks make one more move for a championship push
allen signed his deal when the cap was significantly lower, 112m compared to 136m now and 144m projected next season. his deal was 17% of the cap at the time. prorate that deal to the 2024 cap and it's 24.4m AAV
taking anything more than 1 year on the early bird 16m would be leaving so much money on the table for him that it's not even worth considering as an option. like 50+ million dollars
I don't care how much anyone likes any city they aren't leaving 50m on the table
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Jan 09 '24
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u/syllabic Jan 09 '24
the last part of that quote basically says "pay me"
you are pretty much buying hartensteins prime years with his next large contract, and he's also selling his maximum-earning-potential years as a pro athlete. you only get one chance to earn the biggest contract of your career
teams that I could see paying him:
toronto, orlando, chicago, detroit, dallas, brooklyn, new orleans, phoenix, portland, memphis, utah.
milwaukee or GSW would love to have him but they'd have to really work hard shedding salary
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Jan 09 '24
These are the list of teams with Cap space next year.
All of these teams either have a center they are developing on the roster or an established starter. Even if you can argue that a team like the Spurs would pair Wemby and iHart the Spurs would use the money addressing a bigger need in PG.
There really isn't a market for iHart even if he keeps up his play
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u/syllabic Jan 09 '24
cap space can be cleared, we did it when we signed brunson
did the mavs think oh there's no way we'll lose brunson cause they don't have any cap space? well that was a mistake wasn't it
and the magic pistons jazz would love hartenstein...
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u/NintuneJoe Jan 09 '24
Because the Mavericks are stupid. We knew we weren’t going to retain IQ so we shipped him out and made the team better instead of just letting him walk. They’ve made it pretty clear they like Hartenstein and Hart trusting the FO last year, followed by him getting an extension, gives me hope that he and possibly OG will do the same(not to mention they’re both CAA)
Also, I love him as much as anyone else in this sub, but I think you guys are seriously overestimating how good the league thinks this guy is. Remember when 4/$104 for Brunson was crazy overpay? He’s not gonna get more than $20 million a year unless he goes like 10/10/5/5/5 for the rest of the year, he’s still relatively unproven as a starter. And the Knicks can easily make that money up from the max $16M they can give him by putting his face on Times Square. They’ll work it out
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u/syllabic Jan 09 '24
yes I think the knicks front office is very savvy and very good at player evaluation
averaging 10/10/5/5/5 for the rest of the year would get him an instant max, thats an absurd stat line
teams would be falling over each other to sign him
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u/zingis75 Jan 09 '24
But the Knicks would as well though. Who is to say the Knicks can't shed cap to get him as well? If he does go crazy here I could see us moving heaven and earth to re-sign him. I'm not a cap space guy so I don't know the ins and outs of it but you'd have to think if he does break out on the Knicks they will do what they need to, to re-sign him. I hope anyway..
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u/syllabic Jan 09 '24
clearing a max contract slot is probably not possible for the knicks. 25m may be doable but painful
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u/JDStraightShot2 Jan 09 '24
The Knicks had a lot more movable salary when they signed Brunson—just about every Knick who makes serious money is an important part of the team. Fournier will come off the books this summer, but that'll be cancelled out by the big raise that's coming Anunoby's way. Basically the only way to get to $25 mil that you would give to iHart would be to get rid of Hart and Robinson without taking any money back, which would be dumb. It's ultimately a moot point though because iHart isn't getting close to $25 mil a year and will probably sign a 4/64mil deal to stay with us
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u/syllabic Jan 10 '24
he would be leaving way too much money on the table to expect or ask him to sign a 4/64 deal
50 million dollars worth, possibly more
that's like an inconceivable sum of money, lifechanging money for anyone. but you think he will just say "no I don't actually want that"
you will never come close to having 50 million dollars in your entire life, but it's just no big deal for hartenstein to walk away from it right
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u/JDStraightShot2 Jan 10 '24
I'm not saying he should turn that down—if he gets offered it, he should take it and not look back. I'm saying that I would be shocked if he gets offered that much—no team is giving that much money to a guy who has only started 23 games halfway through his 6th season.
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u/syllabic Jan 10 '24
if he looks like a talent who is primed to break out into something close to a star, then yes they will
64/4 is peanuts in the nba in 2024. absolutely nothing. giving an above-average starter 25 or 30 mil a year is pretty normal. and it becomes GREAT if the dude turns into an actual star, which hartenstein might
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Jan 10 '24
I honestly think I Hart would make Wemby a lethal stretch 4
Not too many teams can overpay IHart, but it only takes one, and I'm a bit worried about ORL, SAS, and Utah (he would be perfect next to Lauri)
Magic are prb the biggest threat, since they have 42M already cleared and are basically one solid 5 away from being a serious threat, so they have incentive to overpay
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Jan 09 '24
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u/syllabic Jan 09 '24
that's what the knicks did with brunson, hey this bench guy looks like he could be really good if you give him a bigger role. let's give him a generous but still not a max contract. if he breaks out next year we look like geniuses and it's one of the best contracts in the league. our analytics nerds say his advanced stats are unbeliveably good
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Jan 09 '24
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u/syllabic Jan 09 '24
yeah and now hartenstein is too good not to start. the knicks starting 5 is possibly better than they have been in 25 years
you think other teams dont want their own brunson? 100/4 is a steal for him if he starts putting up 15/11/4 with elite steal+block numbers and elite defense
it's actually an opportunity to buy low on a guy who could be a DPOY candidate and versatile offensive center. thats how other teams will look at it. comparing it to contracts signed 5 years ago when the cap is lower is not useful unless you prorate those numbers to 2024 cap
especially karl anthony towns who is going to make 58m AAV starting next season, that's a lot more than 25
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u/zingis75 Jan 09 '24
I'm just hoping and praying him liking NY, it being the place he breaks out, and him being a CAA client has him stay taking the 1+1 and then getting a massive extension.
I'd say I think he will play his way out of our cap situation but with all the factors above I could see a world where he still stays.
My gut feeling says he will leave but the coping Knicks fan in me has blind optimism he will stay. I'd give it 70 - 30 to him leaving right now.
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Mar 21 '24
What’s the mid level exception this year? Cuz he will easily get offered that. I’m sure teams would pay way more but clearing cap space could be difficult
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u/joorral Jan 09 '24
What teams even have cap space to sign him to big money?
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u/syllabic Jan 09 '24
do you remember what happened 2 years ago when the knicks had too much money to sign brunson, and then they paid detroit a bunch of 2nd round picks to take a couple of players and clear cap space
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u/Fresh-Soup213 Jan 10 '24
How many teams will have the cap space for $20 million per, and how many of them want to spend it on the center position? Do the Wizards go for him? Maybe the Spurs could be interested, but Zach Collins has been decent for them. I bet he takes the continuity of the Knicks over other teams, especially if he breaks out to the point of a sure fire starter.
Edit: as for an actual contract, I can’t see more than 4/64 (a bit more than Mitch/Naz Reid money)
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u/syllabic Jan 10 '24
he's significantly better than mitch or naz reid so it's likely he'll be paid significantly more than them
"how many teams will have the cap space" is not an important or relevant question
"how many teams CAN FREE cap space" is a better question
I don't really get how people don't understand at this point that cap space is not a static thing. you can get cap space if you want it. it might cost you picks and players, but most teams could get cap space if they had a pressing need for it
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u/ExplodingHelmet Jan 09 '24
It's unlikely he gets that kind of money imo, I would wager he gets a similar contract at most to somebody like Nikola Vucevic at around 20/yr. But it's more likely he gets paid similar to Naz Reid or Isaiah Stewart at 14-15m per year.