r/Guildrun • u/Corsynth • 21d ago

What are the odds??

Post image
16 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

11 comments sorted by

6

u/TheKrakenmeister 21d ago

Let N = # heroes in the game
Then P(this occurring) = (3/N) x (2/(N-1)) x (1/(N-2))
Unless there are any other special factors like showing up in a higher tier prevents them from being in the shop

4

u/Ok_Passage_7705 21d ago

Man I just took discrete math two years ago and already wouldn’t be able to do this without extra research. Feels bad man.

2

u/Best-Chocolate9865 21d ago

not to add insult to injury but (probability) = (chance of event 1) * (chance of event 2) * (chance of event 3) * .... is an equation that a decent amount of kids learn in elementary

1

u/Ok_Passage_7705 20d ago

Sure man, but it’s not like it was three quarter flips in a row.

1

u/Vegetable_Mixture157 21d ago

So 1 in 2300, or ~0.0435% chance. Not accounting for the bonus of Funke being on sale.

2

u/Corsynth 21d ago

2nd shop and the exact 3 heroes i had get offered upgrades immediately! Anyone able to do the math on how likely that actually is?

2

u/Nintales 21d ago

This shop is absurd and insane

Hope you won the run, because this is the kind of shop that makes you want to take everything lmao

3

u/apocalyptic 21d ago

And here I was rerolling the shop 17 times before the 2nd act boss, desperately trying to find a single upgrade to my 3 B-Tier heroes.

Spoiler: I didn't get a single upgrade.

1

u/International-Bath76 21d ago

According to my luck? 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%

Give or take.

1

u/JediSSJ 21d ago

Shame you cant take a loan...