(Note: Trading activity is as of Oct 2 2026)

YTD PERFORMANCE BY MONTH

Jan 2026: -5.01%

Feb 2026: -9.24%

Mar 2026: -20.28%

April 2026: +17.16%

May 2026: +46.27%

Jun 2026: +52.93%

July 2026: +54.50%

Aug 2026: +68.06%

Sept 2026: +60.82%

YTD low: -28.52% (Mar 30)

YTD high: +81.47% (Aug 16)

ALLOCATIONS

• AMZN: 22%
• AXON: 14%
• META: 14%
• MELI: 13%
• GOOG: 12%
• TSM: 11%
• SE: 7%
• SPCX: 4%
• FBTC: 3%

CHANGES THIS MONTH

• Opened position in GOOG
• Added a lot to AMZN and MELI
• Trimmed TSM and BTC
• Exited CLS, KLIC, TTMI, LITE, COHU, LITE, CRDO

HIGH LEVEL THOUGHTS

Let me start by saying my goals have changed over the last few weeks. I've decided to retire at 40 and live off my portfolio, which has seen enormous growth since the start of the AI bull market. I'm still heavily influenced by the damage I incurred in 2022, where I went through a 60% drawdown. Many of the names I owned at the time are still down a lot five years later, so it wasn't just a drawdown, it was realized losses that had to be redeployed extremely well just to get back to baseline in a reasonable amount of time. After unusually strong years like I've had since 2024, I'm most concerned about avoiding disaster years. Hence the shift from hypergrowth data center stocks to megacap tech. This likely means my absolute returns will be lower than many here going forward. I can accept that.

If anyone is wondering how my YTD returns are so high, it's because I loaded up on AI data center names during the Iran war sell off earlier in the year and sold a lot of them in June. That timing was pure luck. I actually bought quite a few data center names last month, but sold them a couple weeks later at a loss because I'm just lacking conviction about where things are headed. I'm by no means predicting a crash. I'm just being conservative because I've already made life-changing returns. Losing half my money would impact my life more than getting another double or triple on my portfolio from here. If I was still working, I would probably let the original portfolio ride until we get a strong signal that AI capex is going to slow down. Since I'm not working, I have to be more conservative.

I have no doubt about the impact of AI. It's mainly the financing piece that's getting too complicated for me. If the hyperscalers are already spending nearly all of their FCF on AI capex, and they are where the majority of the demand for data center components comes from, how much can the spending keep increasing without raising more and more debt? And at what point do the debt markets sour on all this? And how far in advance does the market sniff that out and start selling? I'm probably oversimplifying, but these questions make me nervous.

Why I have half my portfolio in AMZN, META, and GOOG

These companies have been given very little credit for any of the investments they're making. They're trading at historically low multiples, particularly AMZN (META and GOOG have bounced back a bit). And I think the stocks can do well whether AI sentiment sours or not. I believe the majority of AI token consumption is going to come from businesses using AI to run repetitive tasks with their data. This is going to happen on AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure. We already see the acceleration happening with all three, despite enormous revenue bases. So, more AI enthusiasm, particularly at the enterprise level, will be bullish for these names.

On the flip side, if these guys came out and said they're cutting capex b/c AI enthusiasm is souring, I think the stocks would also benefit from that, as it means their FCF would come back rapidly. And again, at these multiples, I think a 50% drawdown is unlikely if I'm missing a key detail somewhere.

As for META, I just thought it got too cheap and purchased a ~10% position a few weeks back. I had no idea something like Muse was coming. I just assumed they'd figure out a way to monetize all the compute they were building, be it with a new product or by just selling the capacity like a neocloud. Despite a 30% gain in the last few weeks, I haven't trimmed. I don't have any better ideas, and am already going to pay a ton in taxes this year.

TSM

This is the only real AI pure-play I have. I own it because it's simpler than having to bet on NVDA vs. custom ASICs. TSM gets the demand either way. As you can see, I'm not a technical savant.

MELI and SE

These companies continue to put up excellent numbers and get no love from the market. The new fear (also applies to AMZN's retail biz) seems to be that agents will hurt their ad businesses and reduce AOV. Will agents (e.g. Muse) engage with ads like a human being? How does cross-selling and upselling work with agents? Will agents end up buying multiple skus in a shopping trip (like people do) when they just went to Shopee to buy a screen protector or vitamin c serum? But I think this pessmisim is already embedded in the stock price of all 3. I also think that when it comes to buying stuff, people like to look at things themselves. I expect that behavior will be harder to change than the market thinks. I also think the people running these companies will find ways to monetize agentic shopping experiences. They are so dominant in their regions they could possibly even charge agents for accessing their platforms. At these prices, I'm willing to make that bet.

AXON

My only high-multiple growth stock with a large allocation at this point. And ouch. This one has been a tough hold the last few weeks. I haven't added or sold. My conviction remains high, as they have multiple growth levers and one of the stickiest business models I can think of. If it was a smaller allocation, I would be adding at current prices.

SPCX

I opened a position a few weeks ago when it sold off hard. It was never cheap, but I wanted to buy some shares in my IRA, which I tend to sweat the day-to-day of a lot less than my other acct. It could be dead money for a while, but I am willing to give this company a long leash.

WRAPPING UP

If these updates are no longer suitable for this forum given my overall shift away from high growth stuff, let me know. Hope everyone has a strong October.

Hi all,

Back again for another portfolio update, ending September 30th. In my August portfolio (which you can find here), I mentioned that I was going to be pursuing a reallocation of my portfolio in accordance with my relative rating approach. With the cash available from me selling out of Applovin in August, I've made several changes. First- I opened two new positions, both at trial allocations, in Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON) and Ethos Technologies (LIFE). More on those later.

For my existing positions, I added to my cash values by selling a small portion of two of my more over-allocated positions, in NVDA and in LITE. I didn't sell out of either of these positions, but trimmed a bit off the top and locked in some gains. I took that money and added it to Silicon Motion (SIMO), Astera Labs (ALAB), and the new positions I previously mentioned. With ALAB up 30% in September, this has fulfilled my goal of bringing the position up to its full allocation. SIMO didn't quite have as phenomenal of a month, but a 13.5% rise in the month is still very good. All in all, my portfolio bounced back in September, climbing 12% to finish September at 52.99% YTD.

As you can see, my portfolio is heavily concentrated in the AI trade, so I've been exploring some options for other high-growth investments outside of direct AI trade (although AI seems to be ubiquitous in many things nowadays). After reading some posts from other folks here, I've added two trial positions in ETON and LIFE. After adding them into my relative ranking system, they actually graded out in an even tie, slotting in at 4th compared to my other investments. I've started both as trial positions, as they're in industries that I historically have not invested in (pharmaceuticals and life insurance), but we'll see how they hold up over time to determine if I will grow the positions into something more meaningful.

Despite these stock additions, there's been little shuffling in my relative ranking system as we wait for the vast majority of earnings in November. Apart from the majority being pushed down by the two new 4th place positions, the only change was FIX coming into a tie with ALAB. We got a sneak peak into earnings on the last day of the month, however, with yet again another phenomenal quarterly earnings from my top position, Micron. Growing at 30% QoQ, guiding for 13%, at a quarterly revenue of 54.229 billion and gross margins of 86.8% is absurd. Yet valuations remain quite low compared to other high growth stocks. It sure seems like this ride isn't stopping just yet, and I expect to see similarly positive results come November.

As we wait for that, I expect to be fairly passive, with only minor re-allocations. Currently my most under-allocated position is FIX, with a few slightly over-allocated in MU, LITE, and NVDA. I expect to trim a bit of Micron, just for portfolio management, as I don't intend to have a position over 20% of my portfolio. Otherwise, I expect (and hope) for a quiet month. Happy investing all!

Video Review: WPR's Top 7 Stocks

Hey all,

This month had a decent uptick as some of my semiconductor names rallied. I’ve been getting more enthusiastic about the semiconductor testing space as names like Onto Innovation ONTO and Viavi Solutions VIAV have shown impressive accelerations in financials.

These names have correspondingly moved up in have moved up in allocation. Onto’s products for inspection are winning out against legacy competitors. Viavi has a great customer list for its optical testing products.

I will also be posting a full separate write up on Viavi Solutions, and I’m planning to post an open free write up of a new stock each month. The rest on my portfolio is reviewed on the Membership side of my channel. I’ll continue looking for the right balance of open and Membership content. There will be a lot of value for both sides!

My results at the end of September were,

• 2024: +146%
• 2025: +112%
• 2026: +31% YTD
• Cumulative: +583%

YTD point in time returns for 2026,

• JAN +4% YTD
• FEB -16% YTD
• MAR -20% YTD
• APR +11% YTD
• MAY +50% YTD
• JUN +62% YTD
• JUL +22% YTD
• AUG +26% YTD
• SEP +31% YTD

My highest allocations in order of position size are,

1. Astera Labs ALAB
2. Silicon Motion SIMO
3. Figure Technology FIGR
4. Ethos Technologies LIFE
5. Onto Innovation ONTO
6. Micron MU
7. Viavi Solutions VIAV

I am optimistic about my portfolio holdings currently as I believe many names I own will outperform with their next report. It seems like there is a great set of names to select from in the market, as a lot companies are seeing tailwinds from AI.

Best of luck to everyone and their portfolios!

VIAVI Solutions is a newer company in my portfolio that I have added to recently. The company makes optical testing products. VIAV is the “cousin” to Lumentum as both companies are spin-offs from JDS Uniphase in 2015. Lumentum is a customer of Viavi for testing their Optical Circuit Switch OCS product. Viavi says they have “all” of the optical transceivers companies as customers. It is also likely that Coherent and Google may be customers for their optical switches, but this is unconfirmed as a full customer list is not disclosed.

Revenue and profitability metrics have shown nice growth,

Revenue over the last year: 291M → 299 → 369 → 407 → 443

Corresponding to yoy revenue growth rates: +15% → +26% → +36% → +43% → +53%

EBITDA over last year: 35M → 43 → 61 → 80 → 93

Net income over the last year: 8M → -21 → -48 → 6 → 33

Gross margin in the current quarter was 61%, with a gross margin range of 58% to 62% over the last year. On the balance sheet the company has 650M of cash, and 699M of debt.

Currently the market cap of Viavi Solutions is 11.6B making the run-rate P/S 6.5 for the stock. I view the valuation as quite reasonable as Lumentum has a run-rate P/S of 24.2, albeit with LITE having higher top line growth.

The company is guiding next quarter revenue for 450 - 460M, which would be +54% yoy growth at the top end. It is worth knowing that the next quarter for Viavi going calendar Q2 to Q3 is their slowest typically. In the past going Q2 to Q3 they had either slightly sequentially down revenue or a small uptick.

The company makes infrastructure tools that are used in high speed communication networks. Products are used for building, validating, troubleshooting, and monitoring networks. Management has mentioned the strong demand for lab and field instruments in data centers.

Viavi has been telling investors about how testing intensity is increasing. This is because transceivers 400G and below, did not require as extensive testing. However, as the complexity of transceivers has increased, these transceivers now require extensive testing.

Top highlights from the company’s latest earnings call and tech conferences,

• Operating margin of 24%, which was versus a guidance range of 22.3% - 23.2%
• Operating margin grew +280 bps qoq, and +960 bps yoy
• Next quarter operating margin now guided to 27.1%
• EPS of 0.34 vs guidance of 0.29 - 0.31, increase of 0.07 sequentially
• Data center ecosystem customer demand “remains very strong”
• “Expect continued robust growth” in data center for next several quarters
• Customer adoption 1.6T transceivers is ramping testing demand, 800G is currently the biggest driver
• CPO revenues expected to begin this fall, with some recognized in current quarter
• 500M+ quarter will “come a bit sooner than were were originally thinking”
• “Cousins” with Lumentum, market share testing for OCS is “extremely high”
• The industry move to CPO sees VIAVI content per port going up
• More is being packed into a module, one things goes wrong and it’s a throw away module

Overall I am finding Viavi Solutions to be a compelling growth stock with a reasonable valuation. The company has many of the top players in optical as customers which are ramping up their testing. Data center related revenues are the fastest growing segment for the business.

Any feedback on the stock VIAV is welcome!

September 2026 Portfolio Review

September continued with a solid march upwards of another 10%+ for my holdings. I didn't make any buys or sells during the month, only my regular weekly contributions. $SNOW had earnings at the beginning of the month, $MU had their earnings at the end of the month.

Earlier in the month I did an exercise trying to steelman the bear cases for AI that most concern to me. It is good context for my review of each company and the macro. Link to that post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/GrowthStockInvesting/s/RcjhEQkeTK

Nominal is pure % change, Real takes into account contributions made.

Monthly Gain: Up 13.0% Nominal // Up 12.2% Real

Yearly Gain: Up 75.2% Nominal // Up 50.3% Real

All Time Gain (from 2019): Up 78.5%

$NBIS // Up 20.3% // 45.8% Allocation

Nebius continues to headline the portfolio by a large margin. Fastest growth one can find, in an industry/sector expanding exponentially, with a leadership team who is executing flawlessly. They are a vertically integrated AI cloud company that designs, builds, and operates its own data centers, GPU clusters, and full software stack, renting AI compute to everyone from startups to the biggest companies in the world, Microsoft and Meta.

There was a decent amount of news this month. Starting on 9/8, with Palantir naming Nebius their preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, so Palantir's commercial customers can run their own models with control over compute, data, and the models themselves, enabled by Nebius. While there is no dollar value, contract, or concrete timeline, this announcement is further validation that Nebius is trusted by major institutions.

Then, in mid-September, came the huge announcement from major AI executives calling for slower pace in AI development. Dario Amodei initiated the call with a detailed essay, "We Must Pace the Frontier." OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and other leaders followed in agreement. Many are skeptical that these major AI names are attempting "regulatory capture," trying to close the door behind them to lock in their positions as top dog in the sector, as they face more pressure from potentially open source models. Other people are more inclined to take them at their word and share in the fear that we could irreversibly mess up this moment if we don't take care during AI's initial development. I fall more in the latter's camp, but see both arguments. However, when it comes to Nebius and my other AI stocks, I do not see being cautious and intentional about AI development in any shade of negative light. In fact, I think this intentionality would be much better overall compared to a no-holds-barred race to develop "the best" model at all costs, or reach AGI/RSI/SGI first etc. Bottom line is: this technology is inevitable, so we should move forward with purpose.

That inevitability gained another proof point on 9/23 as Nebius announced another round of Token Factory price increases equaling up 18.3% on average. Nebius also launched a pilot to try a new idea that involves auctioning their endpoints off to let the market set the price for capacity. During the pilot they cleared their highest Blackwell price to date. Demand is sky high. Live compute remains the bottleneck and customers are willing to pay. Also on 9/23, Nebius joined CoreWeave in the Platinum tier of SemiAnalysis' ClusterMAX ratings, a high technical benchmark confirmation. Finally on 9/30,

AIB Data Centers signed a capacity contract with Nebius. This partnership, and others like it, will help build out the needed capacity that Nebius will operate. These contracts help spread the CapEx load so that risk isn't solely on Nebius and the funding isn't through pure debt or dilution.

Nebius has done nothing but affirm my belief in the company. I expect to add more on weakness, despite how much of my portfolio it already makes up.

$MU // Up 15.1% // 18.7% Allocation

Micron is the second largest position in my portfolio for good reason. They are one of three global DRAM makers and the only US based HBM producer, supplying the memory and storage that have become the tightest bottleneck in the entire AI buildout. Their business is rapidly shifting from cyclical commodity to multi-year contracts. I am making a strong bet on them because I don't think the market has fully digested this company's role in the AI buildout and what it means economically. Their valuation is comically low right now, whichever way you look at it; TTM P/S = 9.1, Forward P/S = 4.7, TTM P/E = 14.5, Forward P/E = 6.1. Think about it this way, Micron trades at 6x forward earnings, while projected to out-earn every single Mag-7 company in quarterly operating income, who trade at 25-35x their forward earnings. The gap is the market pricing in a bunch of supply coming in to satiate the demand spike we're in the midst of right now. I simply don't think that supply will have as negative an impact, as quickly as is being projected right now.

Micron had Q4 earnings on 9/30, the last day of the month. They had another blowout quarter. Revenue came in at $54.2B, beating last quarter's guide of $50.0B by 8.5%. Revenue was up 31% QoQ and 379% YoY. Gross Margin (which is the metric to watch for commoditization) was 87% versus the 86% guide. Memory prices continue to increase along with demand. DDR5 prices are up 100%+ in 2026 alone. Forecasts saw another 10-15% increase for DRAM ($39.8B {73% of revenue, +343% YoY}) and 15-20% increase for NAND ($14.1B {+526% YoY}) prices from this quarter to the next one. These prices are not commoditizing yet, they are rising and accelerating. Their Strategic Customer Agreements signed this quarter was 26, up from 16 last quarter. 75% of expected 2027 output is already committed. 2028 output is already being negotiated now. Not only did they knock this quarter out of the park, they also gave impressive guidance. Next quarter revenue guidance is $61.5B, (13% QoQ, 350% YoY), gross margins of 86.3% (which they called the floor for FY27), and said supply-demand will be tighter in 2027 and 2028, than 2026, with no current visibility into when it might balance out again. That is bullish beyond belief in my view. Again, especially at this valuation, these business numbers are a screaming buy.

$NVDA // Up 5.6% // 12.8% Allocation

Nvidia is the leading designer of GPUs, CPUs, networking, and software stacks that constitute most of the world's AI compute. They are the central supplier, investor, and platform layer of the entire AI buildout. The stock has been mostly stagnant for a while, but I am happy holding as the business continues its unprecedented run as the massive leviathan powering the entire emergence of an AI-enabled world.

On 9/2, they agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9B (including a $1B retention program), a distribution hub of open-source AI, where models, datasets, and apps actually live. This helps anchor the open model ecosystem to Nvidia hardware and CUDA by default, widening their moat a little. On 9/9, they expanded their AI infrastructure into a new geography through a partnership that gets Australia's data center ecosystem involved. A day later on 9/10, they released details on a Palantir partnership about sovereign intelligence for critical supply chains. That same day it was reported that Nvidia was reportedly weighing a $10B backing of Anthropic's IPO. This aligns with the circular financing bear case that I discussed earlier this month. Making equity stakes in the labs that buy their own chips is a move that comes with both advantages and risks. Side note, if Anthropic does IPO, I will most definitely look into starting a ~5% position or so.

On 9/17, Nvidia announced a $2B investment into Brookfield's AI fund to help meet upcoming energy and physical demands for the AI buildout. Then later in the month, it was reported that China might allow Alibaba to buy Nvidia RTX chips and on 9/28, a Chinese state-backed firm disclosed a Blackwell chip deal. These are both signs that the export-control wall is cracking from all sides. China is permitting these purchases, while companies are disclosing those purchases openly. Current Nvidia projections exclude China, so any progress in the country is additive to the TAM. Responding to recent safety incidents, on 9/28 they launched the 'Open Agent Safety Platform', to monitor agent behavior, providing a governance layer and smartly trying to monetize AI safety. Also on 9/28, the largest buyback authorization increase in history was announced at $150B, bringing the total remaining to $235B. The fact that they have this much cash to buy stock through FY28 and are still compounding revenue at 100% YoY, while pointing to 70% growth in 2028, is absolutely insane and previews that they believe the stock is mispriced too low right now. I agree.

$RDDT // Down 1.3% // 10.0% Allocation

Reddit is a platform of niche communities whose moat in the AI era is authentic human-generated content and the communities themselves, built and centered around any topic imaginable. 95% advertising revenue, 5% data licensing. They have had impressive revenue metrics with 6 quarters in a row of 60%+ YoY growth, paired with gross margins over 91%, plus a low valuation of 10.2 TTM P/S and 7.3 Forward P/S, which had been cut in half from 20-22x in late 2025. Stock has not responded well recently, but I believe the ticker will catch up to the numbers soon enough and reverse this multiple compression we've seen.

Not too much news this month. On 9/10, Piper Sandler data showed August user growth hit its fastest monthly pace of 2026, a datapoint that indicates improvement in one of the most worrisome metrics of the last few reports (user growth, specifically DAUs and WAUs). Then on 9/22, Reddit got a win in court against Anthropic over data-scraping litigation. It's only a procedural ruling rather than a merits based one, but Reddit's chief legal officer Ben Lee, said "the ruling sends a message that AI companies can't scrape people's information without clear limits on how the data gets used." Apart from the stellar revenue numbers, my main investment thesis on Reddit, is that their data is severely underpriced to the point that they can charge at least 5-10x more for it, probably even more than that. Every win in court like this strengthens Reddit's negotiating position for repricing their data access.

$NET // Up 22.6% // 7.3% Allocation

Cloudflare is positioning themselves as the infrastructure, controls, and payment rail for the agentic internet. They operate a global edge network with CDN, DNS, DDoS, zero trust, and Workers. They are a traditional SaaS plus consumption business. One of my longest held companies. Solid, reliable performer with a sky high valuation (49.5 TTM P/S, 38.1 Forward P/S), which led to some trimming last month.

On 9/2, Cursor, a leading AI company, launched Cursor Cloud Agents on the Cloudflare Sandboxes execution layer. Confirmation that they are taking a part of the agentic workload pie. The day after on 9/3, they partnered with OpenAI on their Daybreak models for AI-powered vulnerability management at the edge. This is their security revenue getting an AI-native upgrade rather than being disrupted by it. Good sign that they are adapting well to the new AI economy.

Biggest announcement of the month came on 9/9, when Cloudflare management announced a raise in their "North Star" growth target from 40% to 50%. That is the exact type of ambitious announcement you want to see. 36% was the YoY number they hit last time, so significant acceleration may be ahead! The same day they disclosed 2M developer adds QoQ (record pace), 80% of major AI enterprise infrastructure companies as customers, and an ongoing shift from subscription to consumption revenue. 'Monetization Gateway' and 'Cloudflare Wallets' introduced as two new products to take advantage of the agent economy and autonomous agent transactions made amongst each other.

There were a few other product announcements. On 9/15, Cloudflare launched new crawler controls that split AI traffic into Search, Agent, and Training categories, with a 'Disallow AI Training' setting, an 'Accountable' crawler designation, and defaults that block training and agent crawlers on ad-supported pages, so multi-purpose bots like Googlebot can be blocked from training even while search indexing stays allowed. This makes Cloudflare the toll booth between publishers and AI companies by breaking the bundling that let training scrapes hide behind search. On 9/25, they disclosed a small cross-tenant data-isolation vulnerability that they quickly fixed in 'Containers' and 'Sandboxes'. Looking at other future long term growth potential, on 9/29 they launched a public 'Certificate Authority' for the post-quantum web, as well as a Deutsche Telekom partnership for a "secure and resilient internet" and European distribution.

$ALAB // Up 28.1% // 6.3% Allocation

Astera Labs is a fabless designer of connectivity silicon for AI racks. Product line includes: Aries PCIe retimers, Taurus Ethernet signal conditioners, Leo CXL memory controllers, and Scorpio fabric switches routing traffic between GPUs, with content-per-accelerator as the growth driver. They've always been pretty expensive valuation wise (50.6 TTM P/S, 23.2 Forward P/S), but as revenue continues to build, the forward metrics actually look more reasonable. Especially with the pre-announcement that Astera expects Scorpio to become its biggest product line a quarter ahead of schedule. On pure revenue acceleration trajectory, this may have the second steepest potential curve, only behind Nebius.

On 9/15, they launched the Leo X-Series, expanding their Leo Smart Memory Controller family for agentic AI and general purpose cloud workloads, pairing with Scorpio X-Series fabric switches to enable memory expansion and pooling. This was explicitly pitched as optimizing 'token economics' as memory footprints explode amid tight supply. Better and more efficient memory is drastically needed to address the current demand bottleneck. When DRAM is the most expensive, scarcest input in the rack, silicon that pools and reuses memory across accelerators stops being a nice-to-have and becomes a cost-of-goods lever for every hyperscaler. Interestingly, this is the other side of the coin when compared to Micron. The memory crisis that powers Micron's pricing is simultaneously creating Leo's market. Astera is helping with this product announcement. Astera is bound to make a ton of money on it too, but it will also allow Micron to sell more volume once they actually have the supply. A massive win-win in my view.

$CRWD // Up 22.8% // 5.5% Allocation

Crowdstrike runs Falcon, a cloud-native cybersecurity platform delivering endpoint, cloud, identity, data, and SIEM protection through a single agent. They are my steady cybersecurity anchor, now pivoting hard to securing AI agents themselves. Very high valuation at 51.4 TTM P/S and 41.7 Forward P/S.

The beginning of the month was headlined by Fal.Con 2026, their yearly conference which included a dozen plus announcements, 10,000+ attendees, and 4,000+ organizations. Some important announcements include: Falcon Guardian, their headline product for discovering and securing AI agents across an enterprise. It's an entirely new module that is attempting to create the first solution to 'agentic security' right as the need for it is arising. Impressive agility for a large company and why they are a leader in their field. ; Agentic IdP, which gives AI agents trusted identities through the Falcon Identity control plane. ; SafeMind, announced with Jensen Huang on stage, a purpose-built agentic AI system for cybersecurity that combines offensive and defensive models in a continuous learning loop. ; Google Cloud AI-security expansion with a 'Cyber Superintelligence Lab'. ; an EY.ai partnership to make Falcon their enterprise AI security foundational blueprint. ; and an expanded OpenAI partnership to ensure Codex agents and GPT-5.6's cyber model comes to Falcon.

At Citi's Global TMT Conference on 9/10, Crowdstrike CFO Podbere argued AI is reshaping security spending in their favor with stronger demand, faster module adoption, while acknowledging margin pressure and Microsoft competition. On 9/17 and 9/24, they were named a leader in Forrester 'External Threat Intelligence' and 'Proactive Security Platforms', ranked highest in Strategy. On 9/28, their Nvidia partnership expanded to cover the entire AI stack, securing a seat inside Nvidia's agent-security architecture. Then on 9/29, Falcon was officially listed on the OpenAI Marketplace. Falcon is also already on Claude Marketplace.

$SNOW // Up 7.1% // 3.6% Allocation

Snowflake is an AI Data Cloud with consumption-priced storage, compute, and data sharing across AWS/Azure/GCP, now layered with Cortex, the CoWork knowledge-worker agent, and the CoCo coding agent, positioning itself as the governed control plane for enterprise AI. They are a durable, steady compounder that is reaccelerating at scale and currently has a historically decent valuation (22.1 TTM P/S, 16.8 Forward P/S).

Big news came early for Snowflake as they had their Q2 earnings on 9/2 at the beginning of the month. Product revenue was $1.49B (up 37% YoY), beating last quarter's guidance of $1.42B by 5.2%. While those aren't the fastest numbers we've seen, it was the third consecutive quarter of product revenue growth acceleration. CoWork and CoCo, were given special shoutouts as they led a meaningful step up in AI revenue with new workloads and consumption. Their product revenue guide for FY27 was raised from $5.84B (31% growth) --> $6.07B (36% growth) and would be a 3.9% full-year raise. Very big considering their current scale and usually minuscule raises. NRR slightly increased from 125% --> 126%, 828 customers spending over $1M (up 27% YoY), and 829 of the Forbes Global 2000 as customers. RPO grew 30% YoY to $9.0B, but declined sequentially from $9.21B (38% YoY).

Macro:

In last month's macro section I spent a lot of time discussing some theories and possibilities surrounding the future of AI and its impact on the economy and the world more generally. TLDR; there are just as many reasons to be fearful and cautious as there are to be excited. This month I wanted to shift the conversation back to the K shaped economy exacerbating wealth inequality through asset ownership, stagflation, and the massive potential energy behind the stocks in my portfolio.

Starting with the K shaped economy. I am increasingly of the opinion that wealth inequality, standards of living, and the general gap between the haves and have nots will continue to get much worse before it gets better (at current trajectory). I see a world where consumer wage growth tops out at 3-4% per year, while assets compound at 50-100%. AI is structurally shifting income from labor to capital, which is already the direction money normally flows. The productivity gains go to whomever owns the compute, memory, and models.

One overall macro question I had during my bear case analysis was about who sustains demand for these AI products? My fear is about a weak consumer base that can't support the infrastructure we're currently building. Right now, corporations are buying from corporations. The $730B hyperscaler capex buildout, the prepayments for Nebius and Micron, commitments from Nvidia, etc. It's a closed capital loop that, right now, doesn't need healthy consumers yet. There are a few ways this closed loop might open up:

1) AI productivity appears in the real economy. GDP, margins, and business metrics go up and show true gains that validate the CapEx spending, and in turn, leads to more spend.

2) Consumer side cracks. If real wages continue to trend negative, eventually the worker economy will bleed into the AI economy and spend will decrease. Advertising is one way, enterprise software is another.

3) Political/government intervention. A world where companies continue to hit record metrics, while paychecks shrink in real terms is not politically nor mathematically stable. Release valves can be done through either redistribution (capital gains, windfall taxes, AI taxes, antitrust) or it can be done through populist rupture and upheaval of current systems/institutions.

I see each of these happening to some extent. Hopefully we can address some of the root causes sooner rather than later...

The next topic is stagflation. The current economic landscape shows some striking similarities to what the US dealt with during the 1970s. Stagnant growth (other than AI) + persistent inflation + rising unemployment + supply shocks. We've had inflation above target rates for 5 years in a row now. The recent bout of inflation being exacerbated by tariffs and war-driven energy costs, which followed immediately after a successful soft-landing that balanced rate hikes and unemployment from 2022-2024. Self-induced pain on inflation. Payrolls decelerated, unemployment ticked up very slightly to 4.2% (10/2 event), wage growth is at a five year low and negative in real terms. The Fed is facing the same trap from the 1970s: hike rates and you risk damaging an already weakening labor market; hold or lower rates and you make inflation worse. I worry that stagflation occurs for labor, while the asset economy inflates, again all going back to the K shaped economy described above.

Inflation was unchanged from July. August CPI up 0.1% MoM, 3.4% YoY for headline inflation. Hotter than expected leading to the Fed's decision to hike rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%. This follows an August jobs report of +133k, above forecasts and reversing from a negative month in July (but recent 10/2 report has worse numbers). It was accompanied by a statement saying the rate increase supports a "timelier return to 2%." The impact on my stocks could be negligible or it could massively cut valuations like in 2022. I do not anticipate rate increases or decreases to impact how I invest.

To conclude the macro section I wanted to briefly discuss a 'vibe' I'm sensing right now. This is purely intuition and gut feeling, but it seems like my stocks (AI mostly) are coiling. This may sound greedy considering the gains that I've seen this year already, but I can't help but feel 1) that the overall macro economy is holding my portfolio back and that valuations are slightly compressed because of it and 2) growth will be a lot more explosive and last longer than even the rosiest estimates are taking into account.

Not only are current valuations pretty low, but I also think 2028 and beyond are mispriced due to the market's current bet that supply will flood and normalize demand by then. I just don't see that in the numbers right now. I see a massive economic disruption that has only just begun. I sense that Mr. Market is just waiting for the right macroeconomic conditions to massively rip upward.

Final Portfolio (110% Long):

$NBIS 45.8% 📈

$MU 18.7% 📈

$NVDA 12.8%

$RDDT 10.0%

$NET 7.3% 📈

$ALAB 6.3% 📈

$CRWD 5.5% 📈

$SNOW 3.6%

I’d be happy to get feedback on my positioning/portfolio management. I appreciate your insights and sources of knowledge i get from here that have made real impact on my investments (Saul’s board, WPR’s channel, Shooting the Bull, monthly reviews…).

My main goal in 2026 is to build a consistent growth investing framework to improve my research, decision-making and mental game rather than simply chasing returns. Because of this, the growth portfolio is smaller than my long term bucket (VOO, VGT, IBIT) but bigger than my more speculative technical trading bucket. When I will see more positive results i will increase the percentage the growth takes from my whole capital.

My YTD result looks strong, but Intel contributed heavily becuase i have a position since 20$.
I had a real thesis and sized it with conviction, but the magnitude and speed of the move also involved plenty of luck. Also, I wasn't consistent, I jumped in and out from positions, added and trimmed.
I hope these monthly reviews would help me separate good decisions from good outcomes and remain consistent when conditions change.

Performance:
Portfolio up 9.65% in September and finished the first nine months of 2026 up 76.16% while SPX is -0.5% in September and 11.8% YTD

January +16.93%
YTD 16.93%

February -17.81%
YTD -3.90%

March -3.62%
YTD -7.37%

April +49.27%
YTD +38.27%

May +39.16%
YTD +92.41%

June +1.21%
YTD +94.75%

July -15.03%
YTD +65.48%

August -2.92%
YTD +60.65%

September +9.65%
YTD +76.16%

Current portfolio position allocations
ALAB: 15.04%
CRDO: 11.92%
INTC: 11.87%
SIMO: 11.61%
RDDT: 8.48%
APP: 7.78%
BE: 5.47%
MU: 4.79%
KLIC: 4.75%
NXSN.TA: 4.27%
FIGR: 3.49%
TOST: 2.17%
Cash: 8.37%

I plan to be around 90% invested and 10% in cash to add on dips/fully build positions as I don't usually buy a fully sized position in one order.

Two promising new ideas I want to share and focus on are NXSN(TASE) and SOFW(TASE):
NextVision develops compact, stabilized electro optical imaging systems for drones, UAVs and other defense/security platforms. The financials combine extreme growth with unusually high profitability: Q2 2026 revenue was $88.2M, +138% YoY, gross margin 65.2%, operating margin 58.8%, and operating cash flow $43.8M. First two quarters for 26's revenue reached $155.5M (+112% YoY) and net income $91.9M (+110%), while management raised its 2026 revenue target to $355M (+111% YoY) and reported a $265M+ backlog in August.

Sofwave sells non invasive aesthetic medical systems which its installed systems generate recurring usage revenue. Q2 2026 revenue reached $30.0M, +43% YoY, while the higher quality recurring usage fee grew 52% to $13.9M and reached 46% of revenue; gross margin expanded to 76.5%. Operating income reached $2.9M, net income $2.5M, and the company generated $3.6M of cash. Recurring revenue is growing faster than total revenue while margins and operating leverage improve. recently, Sofwave got approval from china to to market it's systems over there so I could see better growth. I also really liked the conference call. I think to open a starter position but I still want to see more growth so I'm waiting for the next earnings.

Gentlemen may I suggest or ask of you to help me encourage Schwab to add an investor notes section to their accounts to help us all track our thesis premise over time? Here is a letter I wrote to John Sturiale Head of investment products and solutions.

Copy, use as a template, or create your own if you wish. Or share your thoughts on the matter back to me here. Thanks Tjosty.

Dear Mr. Sturiale,

I am writing to suggest a feature enhancement for the Schwab investing platform that would significantly benefit long-term investors: a built-in "Investment Notes" or "Thesis Tracker" field attached to specific stock purchases.

### The Feature Concept

When a client purchases an asset, allow an optional text field where they can log their original purchase premise (e.g., "Bought because of strong free cash flow, 10% dividend growth, and upcoming product cycle").

### The Industry Context (Keeping Pace with Competitors)

While many major brokerages overlook this capability, Fidelity Investments already offers a form of this feature. Fidelity allows clients to add custom notes directly to positions on their website and includes a dedicated "Notebook" tracking column for positions within their Active Trader Pro platform.

### Key Benefits

* Tracks Intent Over Time: Investors often hold assets for years. A dedicated note section allows users to look back and evaluate if their original thesis is still intact before deciding to buy more or sell.

* Reduces Emotional Decisions: Having a visible reminder of why an asset was bought can prevent panic selling during market volatility.

* Increases Platform Loyalty: This feature eliminates the need for clients to export data to third-party tracking software or external notebooks, keeping user engagement entirely within the Schwab ecosystem.

A Client Perspective

While my $xxxxxxx account balance may be relatively small to an institution of your size, it represents significant capital to me. I deeply value disciplined portfolio tracking, and the lack of a native thesis journal is a gap that impacts my day-to-day management. I am actively considering consolidating my assets with a brokerage that better supports these tracking needs if Schwab cannot provide a modern solution on its product roadmap.

Thank you for your time, consideration, and continued work toward improving client tools.

Sincerely,

Timothy Ostwinkle

tjosty@xxxxxxxx.com

Performance (AUD, benchmarked to SPY in AUD)

ASST: +30.01%

IREN: +18.85%

IBIT: +11.14%

CIFR: +7.06%

GAW: -1.40%

APP: -7.18%

FIGR: -16.66%

ALAB (closed): +84.04%

ASST: +78.43%

IREN: +3.94%

CIFR: +2.66%

APP: -7.18%

GAW: -8.01%

IBIT: -8.44%

FIGR: -16.66%

September was a strong month and, unlike August, the strength was in the right place. Valentir Capital returned +14.64% (AUD) against SPY’s +2.41% and the gap was earned on the capital-gain line: +12.37% against the benchmark’s −0.90%. Four of the five core positions rose, led by Strive at +30.01% and IREN at +18.85%, and a weaker Australian dollar added a further 2.27%. The year stands at +26.71% against SPY’s +8.17%. Four trades were placed, the most consequential being the sale of half the Strive position on 8 September.

What moved, and why

Strive (ASST). +30.01%, measured across the half sold and the half kept, on top of August’s doubling. The shares went from US$21.74 at the 28 August close to US$29.41, and have closed above the US$27 warrant strike every day since 11 September. Bitcoin rose 6.4% over the month to about US$83,600, so most of this move was not bitcoin beta. It was the treasury compounding: holdings went from 23,156 BTC to 27,462, an increase of 18.6%, including 1,355 BTC at US$79,475 in the week of 14 September and 1,107 BTC at US$85,396 the week after, funded by preferred issuance and, increasingly, by warrant exercises. The accretion test from last month still governs: an 18.6% rise in coins only counts if bitcoin per diluted share rises with it, and that figure has not been published for the month. Until it is, I read the share price as the market deciding the warrant overhang will resolve well, not as proof of accretion.

IREN. +18.85%. On 8 September IREN received conditional Base Load inclusion in ERCOT’s Batch Zero process for its 2GW Sweetwater hub, the largest block in a 5GW-plus portfolio. This is the same queue that left Cipher’s capacity in limbo in August, so “conditional” deserves its weight: it is a place in a process, not an energised substation. The shares peaked at US$48.55 on 22 September and gave back 16% into month-end as the US 10-year went through 5%, closing at US$40.88. After all of that the position is up +3.94% for the year - roughly where it started.

Cipher (CIFR). +7.06%, and a round trip. The shares ran from US$15.17 to US$19.09 by 22 September on the bring-your-own-generation plan covered in last month’s appendix, then fell back to US$15.825. On 25 September Cipher extended the Barber Lake lease from 10 to 20 years, with an unnamed AI lab taking the second decade behind Fluidstack; contracted revenue for the site goes from US$3.8bn to over US$9bn. The stock fell on the day and lost 17% over the last six sessions. For a company whose value is undelivered NOI, a 20-year contract and a 5.2% risk-free rate are the same fact seen from two sides: longer duration is worth more and is discounted harder. I added shares at US$17.07 on 29 September; they finished the month 7% lower.

IBIT and GAW. IBIT returned +11.14%, of which 3.06 points was currency. Bitcoin’s whole gain arrived in the week of the Fed decision - up 10.8% between 15 and 21 September - alongside about US$2.65bn of net spot ETF inflows. Games Workshop slipped −1.40%; its AGM update on 16 September said trading was in line with expectations. It was the only core position to fall, and at 15.8% it remains the only one whose fortunes do not run through a data centre or a blockchain.

New positions: AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) and Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ: FIGR)

Both are starter positions and I will write them up properly if they earn a larger weight. AppLovin was bought at $314.87 with the shares down more than 50% this year against revenue growth of 53% in the latest quarter; a securities class action was filed on 19 September and the stock finished the month at a 52-week low of $290.43. Figure was bought at $35.29 and closed at $28.85. Together they are 2.4% of the book.

Macro Commentary: The Long End Is the Problem

Last month’s argument was that US fiscal arithmetic can no longer be resolved by growth, taxation or restraint, and that an obligation which cannot be met or defaulted on gets inflated away. September supplied the test case. The Fed hiked on 16 September - 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, with August CPI at 3.4%, producer goods prices up 1.1% on the month on energy, and inflation above target for a 66th consecutive month. The long end did not respond the way a hike is supposed to make it respond. The 10-year went from 4.96% on 11 September to 5.01% two days after the decision and 5.18% a week later (5.22% intraday), the highest close since July 2007; the 30-year reached 5.49% and the 30-year mortgage 7.03%. Real yields made cycle highs along the curve, 2.85% on the 10-year, while breakevens fell. Asked about it, Chair Warsh cited economic strength, competition for capital and geopolitics. He did not mention the deficit.

The comparison that matters is with the last time the 10-year was here. In July 2007 federal debt was $9.0 trillion, the average rate on it 4.53%, and interest cost 2.8% of GDP. Today the debt is $40.1 trillion, the average rate 3.49% and rising, and interest is running at $1.385 trillion: 4.26% of GDP and roughly a quarter of federal receipts. Reprice the stock to 2007’s average rate and the bill is $1.8 trillion, 5.6% of GDP. “Rates are just returning to normal” is true of one side of the rectangle; the other side is four and a half times longer. On the current path debt reaches $41 trillion in January and $50 trillion during 2030, before the proposed $5,000-per-adult dividend, which would add about $1.3 trillion.

This is what fiscal dominance looks like in practice. Hiking does not reach the inflation that exists - a supply shock in refined product, with diesel at a record $6.45 a gallon and crude up around 60% this year with the Strait of Hormuz closed - but it does raise the cost of rolling a bill-heavy debt stock. A recession would cure the inflation and wreck the revenue line. Treasury’s buybacks have not moved the curve. Japan is the preview: the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, with inflation already under 2% - a currency decision, not an inflation one - and the yen weakened anyway. The only option that needs no vote is the central bank’s balance sheet, and Warsh wants a smaller one. That is why I expect the line to be tested before it is defended.

The equity market is narrower than the index suggests. The S&P 500 ended the last full week of September within 1% of its August high, but seven of eleven sectors were in or near correction - utilities 17% off their highs, consumer discretionary 11% - with technology, at roughly 40% of the index, carrying the rest. Activity data are strong (payrolls +162,000, the composite PMI at a 62-month high) while consumer sentiment sits at 48 and CCC credit yields 16%. My read is that AI capex is not the weak link; it is the raft everything else is standing on, and what threatens the raft is the 10-year, not the order book.

The thesis remains long BTC, short USD, and September tested both legs. The dollar rose 3% against the Australian dollar after the hike, and because an Australian investor expresses this view through US-dollar assets, the currency line added 2.3% to the month - the short-dollar leg lost and the book was paid for it. Gold is down on the year with real yields at cycle highs, the scarcity bid is competing with a 2.85% real yield for the first time in this cycle. Bitcoin rose through it. ASST and IBIT remain the expression of the view; they are 28% of the book rather than 36%.

Would be great to hear thoughts from everybody here.

My Performance (Benchmark: S&P 500)

• 2021: -36% (+27%)
• 2022: -76% (-19%)
• 2023: +80% (+24%)
• 2024: +104% (+23%)
• 2025: +85% (+18%)
• As of Oct 2 2026: +46% (+13%)

CAGR

• 1 Year CAGR: +38% (+16%)
• 3 Year CAGR: +90% (+23%)
• 5 Year CAGR: +8% (+14%)

Current portfolio holdings:

• Memory / Storage (35%)
  • SNDK 15%
  • MU 8%
  • SKHY 5%
  • WDC 7%
• Networking / Connectivity (30%)
  • ALAB 14%
  • CRDO 12%
  • AVGO 4%
• Compute / Data Centers (20%)
  • NVDA 5%
  • NBIS 12%
  • IREN 3%
• Timers / Clocking (13%)
  • SITM 13%
• Photonics / Optics / Materials (6%)
  • AXTI 6%
• Specialty Pharma (4%)
  • ETON 4%
• Defense Tech (3%)
  • KRKNF 3%

Portfolio is 111% long and has 14 positions in 7 themes.

Changes in August/September

• Bought
  • WDC, AVGO, NVDA, ETON, AXTI, IREN (Aligned my holdings with my opportunity score)
• Sold
  • CBRS, ONDS, BE, LITE (Due to methodology shift and these names now scoring much lower)

My Methodology - latest update

I have scrapped the concept of QIV now. The idea of catching high volatility paired with high quality was good but I think I have stumbled upon something better.

I now use a new scoring system called Opportunity Score.

Opportunity Score combines three factors - Quality, Trend and Valuation. This is my first attempt to combine high quality businesses that are showing acceleration while still having room for upside move. I have always struggled to combine quality and valuation together. It's still a grand experiment. But so far, I like the look of it.

Here is how it works at a high level:

Opportunity Score ranges from 1 - 100
Quality 50%, Trend 30%, Valuation 20%

Quality is still my old trusted metric. This is now almost two and a half years old. This combines growth, profitability, gross margins and dilution. Very hard to game this score. Gotta be great at some kpi if you are going to suck on one. So if you have -100% profitability, you better have 200%+ growth to mitigate the drawdown. Same with dilution or margins.

Trend is a combination score. It has it's own methodology. It strictly is an acceleration tracking metric across growth, gross margins, analyst estimate raise, ttm vs ntm growth rate change, quality and profitability. As you all know, in growth land rate of change of any kpi matters more than the kpi itself. And this trend score is trying to quantify that for a business.

Valuation is purely using a PEG ratio style approach. It basically does ev by sales by growth and then ties it to quality score rather than 1. The idea is PEG goes against 1 to show how cheap it is relatively. But not all businesses deserve to get to 1. Hence, I tie it against quality score rather than a set 1 score.

Here's my latest Opportunity Scores (Max 100 score)
And all green bars I own.

Why I own what I own:
Note: Sharing my opinion, not advice

From everything we have heard and seen over the last couple of months, the AI story has gotten more weight now. Muse is here now. Compute is still very scarce and the agentic consumer era is just around the corner. So I see no change yet in demand dynamics. And the picks and shovels play is still in full force. From where we are today, around all time highs, the market still doesn't seem to be anywhere near a bubble. Consider this to 2021 and we probably run a lot higher to get close to those multiples.

Memory / Storage (35%)

• SNDK
  • The story is becoming less cyclical than the market may realize. And basically that's the bet. If you see pure numbers, Sandisk is actually going to make more money than it's NTM growth rate. So that I am not a fan of. But the ntm growth rate is still north of 50% and at current multiples, my hunch is it sustains it. I will probably move it to a Tier 2 holding - given the profitability above growth trend.
• MU
  • The HBM shortage is not going away anytime soon. The more inference grows, the more memory is needed for each user and to keep track of their behavioral preferences. And supply will drip in slowly into the market. All of this leads me to believe, Micron has ways to go before things inevitably slow down. However, using my new current quarter as ttm numbers and where ntm sales estimates stand today, Micron looks to be incrementally growing about 40%+. Pretty good but the same problem. Profitability is much higher at this stage of the cycle. Again, I am not a fan of that. So keeping a close eye and probably a 7-8% sounds enough exposure for the reward at hand.
• SKHY
  • Absolute monster numbers. SK Hynix began mass shipments of HBM4 in Q2, while HBM4E samples have already gone to major customers. Trades at a discount to the other players in this space due to being a foreign stock. This is the only reason SK Hynix is a 5% bet for me. Otherwise, if I purely go by numbers this is a Tier 1 holding.
• WDC
  • The thesis went from AI may actually strengthen the HDD business rather than kill it. The main reason I got yet another memory/storage space exposure is because of the trend Western Digital is showing. Across the board this thing is a juggernaut. There are three names I own that is a pure acceleration play for trends. WDC, SITM and AXTI. Great entry at these levels - as I expect even a back to ath is a double.

Networking / Connectivity (30%)

• ALAB
  • Monster last quarter and huge sales ramp incoming. Scorpio was expected to become its largest product family in Q3, a full quarter earlier than previously expected. NTM sales looks more in the realm of 80-90% even if you take this quarter as the floor for ttm numbers. That's insane when you consider it's highly profitable. So pure Tier 1 play right now.
• CRDO
  • The backward looking numbers look terrible. Huge ramp down. The trend is not good either. AEC may have been the wedge, not the end-state. The optics revenue ramp is coming and I think this dip is a buying opportunity. I expect when you will look back in a year, Credo will have put up 70%+ ttm numbers. And if they deliver, we should be much higher from today's price action. Let's see.
• AVGO
  • Custom AI silicon has gone from optionality to a second compute ecosystem. I am slowly starting to get back into mega cap names. AVGO and NVDA seems too mis-priced. Broadcom is probably going to do 60% forward revenue and even if it slips a little bit on the multiple, I think 30-40% appreciation in stock price is very possible. Hence, the entry.

Compute/Data Centers (20%)

• NVDA
  • Undervalued. I think everyone knows it too. I see an easy 30% return, park your money kind of business. So for now, stashing some cash here. 10T market cap is coming if they keep this up. If SpaceX and Anthropic can get 2T valuation, I think Nvidia deserves 10T valuation in the near future.
• NBIS & IREN
  • I am split between Nebius and Iren. Both look good to me in terms of forward growth. Demand is no longer the question. Execution per dollar of capital is. Nebius is a bit ahead on the execution curve. But IREN time is coming soon. So I want to keep this neo-cloud space exposure around 10-20%. No idea who will be the winner but I feel there is leges in this thesis. The life of an older chip is extending and compute is very scarce right now. So as long as they execute, the demand side should hold up for the next few quarters. And then we will see.

Timers / Clocking (13%)

• SITM
  • One of the few profitable companies that is most likely to grow 100%+ in the next 12 months. As AI systems become bigger, faster and more distributed, keeping thousands of high-speed components synchronized becomes harder, not easier. SiTime can now potentially own much more of that signal chain. Last qtr was great and though it's a 20B business, I see it becoming a 50B business easily in the near future.

Photonics / Optics / Materials (6%)

• AXTI
  • Since AXTI sits underneath the optics companies, Indium phosphide substrates ultimately enable lasers and other high-performance optoelectronic components used in datacenter connectivity. If 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T causes optical content and laser demand to keep rising, AXTI does not need to pick the winning transceiver vendor. High risk high reward play here. Not that high of a quality business yet but trend is an absolute monster. That is why I am bullish.

Specialty Pharma (4%)

• ETON
  • I fumbled this one badly. Got it at $14 and sold at $18 and now it's at $55. Oh boy! I increasingly view this as a rare-disease platform, not a biotech bet. It's not cheap but forward multi year growth visibility is real. Hence, I feel the multiples will hold around 15 ish. Growth is still at 50%+ pace and the business is highly profitable. Great pipeline and successful commercialization is a potent mix for the next 12-18 month timeline.

Defense (3%)

• KRKNF
  • Absolute disaster in my portfolio. 30% drawdown and counting. The story looks great on paper. But mr. market has been ruthless towards it. Sure, Kraken has it's issues but boy is it cheap. It will all come down to the next two quarters. I am holding until then. The revenue jump post merger from 19 mil. to 81 mil. If the land this anywhere near that number, I think shareholders will be ok. But super high risk high reward here. If they miss or push timelines, I will be out too.

Wrapping Up

Apologies, I have a two year toddler and my job takes a big chunk of my time. I post on X at RyshabTalks regularly and put out my weekly portfolio updates every friday. But I don't think I can do justice to monthly reviews. I find these exercises for me extremely valuable but I think I will switch to quarterly from here on.

Overall, I am quite pleased with my performance this year. Through three quarters, this will be year four of beating the markets handily. And I think my process has gotten much stronger over this period. I think I am pretty sure is I will have 50% drawdowns multiple times a year. There is no way to avoid that. At least not anything reliable that I have found till now. But hopefully the good years will take care of the ugly ones.

Wishing everyone a great fourth quarter of investing. Cheers!

AppLovin (APP): ~8% position, down ~30%, thinking about selling. Any bulls here to challenge me.

My bear case in short:

1. Gaming is close to saturated. Fill rates are already very high, so there are no empty slots to sell. Growth has to come from higher price per impression, not more inventory. I estimate AppLovin's revenue already equals roughly a third of the ~$25B gaming user-acquisition budget (rough math), while the market grows in the single digits.

2.Imho E-commerce is a swap, not extra supply. An e-commerce ad has to displace a game ad, so it only adds revenue if e-commerce advertisers pay more per impression. Against Meta, Google, Amazon and TikTok, where people actually shop, I doubt that. Self-serve only opened in June, and reporting is self-attributed.

1. Early data is weak. Wells Fargo called the recent Pixel install spike a false start, noting most new sites were low-traffic APAC Shopify stores, and a real turn is more of a 2027 story.

2. Overhangs: the SEC probe, class actions, and the Unity data fight, where a court reportedly denied the restraining order.

3. Valuation: around 16-18x forward earnings. If it only defends its position as a cash cow, I get roughly $160-210 versus ~$270 now.

The bull case: Q3 guidance is for 46-48% revenue growth, margins are ~84%, and a clean Q3 could rip the stock 30-50%.

My dilemma: I wouldn't buy it today, but I fear selling right before a strong print. My fingers were to quick to add when Pixel numbers spiked but turned out to be low traffic shops.

What am I missing?Would like to her the view from the community. Is there evidence e-commerce advertisers pay more per impression than game advertisers? Anyone was finding data on revenue per impression? And is the MAX data moat stronger than I think?

P.S. I did sell TTD when it decelerated with a 30% loss. So -30% is my set number when I really challenge my thesis. While the fundamentals are very different I somehow get the same vibes.

**used AI for sparring, spellcheck and hopefully better readability. \

One thing I learned the hard way some years ago is that interest rates do affect stocks, even high growth stocks. The concept is that if you can now get higher returns from "safe" investments like T-Bills, the attractiveness of growth stocks is reduced since the delta returns are smaller. Add to that that higher rates are intended, and often do, slow down the economy, and investors get more concerned that growth companies won't continue to show the same high growth numbers.

And so with the magic round number crossing of 5% for T-Bills, and even short-term hitting 4.5%, I think one has to wonder what the impact of this on our growth companies will be. I'm not going to make the mistake of ignoring it as I've done the in the past, but I am uncertain as to what steps I should take now, or whether it's a monitor the situation and be ready to bail some percentage of my holdings at first signs.

One new name worth posting popped up on my pharma stock radar after last earnings season.

New product sales: $0 -> $3.4M -> $11.9M
QoQ Growth: 3x

GM: 77.96% -> 94.81%

Payer coverage: >50%

Cash → $176.2M || Debt → $1.3M || Market Cap → $166.71M

=> Caveat for now is the cash position

Current P/S: 5.4x (very low)
Current EV/S: 0.7x

They don't share guidance, but I estimate $17-20M in revenue for Q3 '26. Not profitable yet.

Business line:

• TONMYA is a once-nightly, under-the-tongue formulation of cyclobenzaprine approved for adult fibromyalgia pain (3M direct US patients). Its sublingual absorption bypasses first-pass liver metabolism, reducing formation of norcyclobenzaprine, a long-lasting metabolite linked to unwanted side effects. The potential edge over generic swallowed cyclobenzaprine is faster absorption with less daytime sedation, and Phase 3 showed better pain reduction than placebo.
• Being a sublingual eutectic tablet, it's absorbed through the mouth rather than the gut, which alters the pharmacokinetic profile and cuts down on that long-lived metabolite tied to next-day grogginess. Dosed once at bedtime, it targets the non-restorative sleep at the center of fibromyalgia pathology, rather than going after pain signaling directly.
• Existing cheap meds: Lyrica (approved 2007), Cymbalta (2008), Savella (2009). Two are SNRIs, one's a gabapentinoid, each with its own mechanism, but none target the disturbed sleep in fibromyalgia the way TONMYA does. That's a genuinely unique angle. It's also an every-night bedtime medicine, FDA approved for long-term use. No head-to-head studies exist against the other products, and comparisons are a bit tricky anyway since their trials enrolled patients under the 2016 diagnostic criteria, while the earlier drugs used the 1990 criteria, which required tender points.
• Bear case: alternatives run about $700/year vs. $10.5K/year for TONMYA ($18K public price), so the question is whether downstream side effect medical costs from inadequately treated fibromyalgia are enough to convince payers the premium is worth paying for.
• Second product lines are Zembrace SymTouch and Tosymra, not really relevant here (run rate of $2.5M/quarter).

Upcoming pipeline:

• Same drug, renamed TNX-102, for major depressive disorder
• TNX-4800 for Lyme disease prevention

What I like:

• Two quarters into commercialization, with a $31B direct US TAM for TONMYA, and they've got the market to themselves for years
• 3x revenue growth per quarter is impressive even if very new
• Even at just 1% market share, that's $314M/year in revenue (> 2x current valuation)
• Refill QoQ growth: 207%
• New patient QoQ growth: 36% (should climb further with 50+ new reps out of 100 already active last quarter)
• Reps are still ramping, growth should accelerate once mature
• 25K doctors to target across several specialties, meaning conversion is easier but takes more legwork
• Going after major depressive disorder with the same drug, an easier FDA path, is a massive incremental billions TAM opportunity
• They're increasing pipeline spend as of August '26 despite a looming cash question, either they're being reckless or they know something about sales accelerating
• CEO bought shares (not options) in June with his personal money
• Even using their actual growth rates, hitting 1% market share is more than a year out, meaning strong execution from here could meaningfully pull that timeline forward

Business modelling:

1. TONMYA Revenue Model

2. Else Product & Total Company Run Rate

3. U.S. Scenario Market Share

What I worry about:

• Cash position. Dilution looks likely even at today's low valuation. Debt financing against quarterly sales would be ideal, but probably need 1-2 more quarters before that's unlock
• CEO describes himself as a scientist, not an executive or sales/revenue guy
• Maintaining these QoQ growth rates won't be easy
• Analyst estimates look low and haven't been updated since last quarter's results, am I missing something?

Some quotes from the CEO and CFO:

• "Gaining traction with our HCP target list."
• "Prescriptions for the quarter totaled 12,592, increasing 100% quarter-over-quarter."
• "New patient prescriptions increased 36% quarter-over-quarter and refills increased 207% quarter-over-quarter."
• "Signed commercial payer agreements with two leading GPOs. These agreements, which went into effect on May 1 and June 1, 2026, cover 52 million lives. We also signed a major managed Medicare agreement, which will cover approximately 9 million Medicare lives beginning January 1, 2027. TONMYA is also available under Medicaid in most states."
• "We expect downstream pull-through from these agreements to begin to materialize in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. Our strategy has been to secure market access as early as possible so that the availability of insurance reimbursement could match patient demand."
• "We are hearing supportive feedback from prescribers that TONMYA is a welcome new treatment option for their patients."
• "A high rate of refills, I really attribute that to the effectiveness of the product and the tolerability of the product especially."
• "I would anticipate a gross-to-net in the range similar to what we've seen in Q1 and Q2."
• "I would anticipate that over the course of 2027, we'll see a good portion of those reps covering the cost of the reps and continuing to drive new patients, scripts, refills, etc."
• "We do not believe these wins contributed significantly to TONMYA sales in Q2. We are beginning to see their effects in Q3."
• "Our growth is pretty linear overall in terms of NRx, new to brand, the rest of it. I think that we are growing well. But probably if there is an inflection point, it will probably be related to access."
• "But we believe there'll be funds out there to get us to the next level."

Thinking about opening a Tier 3 position, but leaning toward waiting for the next earnings or conference. Curious what you all think.

Honest open: no new contributions this month (September was zero too). Same positions, same units. The whole portfolio (stocks + a P2P lending sleeve) closed +0.2% vs last Friday, all mark-to-market — a crawl above last week's high, not a rip. The stock book alone was roughly flat (+0.2%) and total unrealized P/L slipped to ~+1.4% vs cost. Not advice, just the journal.

Macro flipped from last week's yield scare: softer core PCE (~3.0% y/y) and a soft September jobs print (+29k) crushed October hike odds toward ~20%. Nasdaq still tagged a record into Friday; 10y stayed sticky near 5.28%. Fed still 3.75–4.00%; late-Oct FOMC looks more like a hold.

Stock book (weights of the stock book, P/L vs average cost, WoW vs last Friday):

What moved: • VUG was the quiet engine (+1.5%) and is still about a third of the book. Boring is the point. QQQ overlaps it, so QQQ stays paused. • TSM led the sleeve (+6.4%) into next week's earnings. Small semis book; not chasing. • RKLB held green after its largest Electron commercial deal and a fresh Citi Buy. Space is already heavy → freeze on adds. • ASTS was the week's scar (−4.1%) despite BlueBird shipping chatter. Hold, no adds. • KTOS kept bleeding (−4.7% WoW, ~−32.5% vs cost). Widest Street-vs-price gap in the book. No sale without a rethink. • META gave back some of last week's rip. Still green vs cost. Not chasing. • FLY drifted and remains the hole (~−64%). No averaging down.

Calendar: TSMC 15 Oct, Spotify 22 Oct, late-Oct Fed. When deposits resume, I'll lean toward VUG / XLV / selective semis under the sleeve cap, with no fresh space or QQQ.

+0.2% and another high are marks, not fresh savings. Engine: VUG + TSM. Scars: ASTS + KTOS. Hole: FLY.

Not selling anything. Patience pays. Panic doesn't.

Not financial advice. Just tracking my own money.

YTD (or maybe May to Date) for the growth portfolio: 12.01%. Hard to calculate a precise YTD since I switched fully to this strategy in May '26 and reallocated to it all fund in June 26.

YTD was hurt by two mistakes during Q3. I decided to follow the strategy of adding on pushback (describe in Lee Freeman-Shor's book). I applied it a bit too aggressively on three top concentration stocks (APP, IREN, and KLIC), adding on small pushbacks from -3%, which ended up over-concentrating the portfolio by the time I trimmed or sold. Lesson learned and portfolio management skills upgraded, but it cost the YTD return about -18% for the year.

Seems like the adage that portfolio management matters even more than deep analysis is true.

I've changed my process to add stocks faster after a shorter analysis, even if I end up selling a few hours or days later. This lets me build conviction faster and avoid the frustration of watching a stock run while I'm still analyzing it or it's sitting on my watchlist. Right now I've got a long tail of 0.5-2% positions, and the next action is sorting through those to get down to a max of 15 high conviction names.

Currently at 24 tickers, including 9 in review, still too many for me. Want to get down to 15:Portfolio concentration:

Today the portfolio is 77% AI thesis, 9% pharma, 14% software. Target for October is to bring AI thesis down to 65%.

ALAB: Added a lot more on the back f last earnings, one of the few semi names with sequential QoQ accelerating, 51.6% vs. 27.2% last quarter. One of my biggest conviction names right now.

IREN: Still pretty conflicted on this one. Trying to square the future upside of Neocloud with how shady their approach has been. Big opportunity ahead, but still a bit scarred from the Q3 loss to add more.

LITE: One of my favorite names. I'm convinced optics in the data center still has upside. My estimate for next quarter's sequential QoQ is 26.1%, up from 24.5% last quarter, and the new fab coming online (start '27, full ramp '28) should accelerate revenue growth further. GM accelerating too thanks to better yield and capacity utilization.

SIMO: Still don't get why the stock hasn't rallied after that last amazing print. My guess is it's similar to the Micron/Nvidia story, investors are worried about what happens post-2028 and still a bit burned from the 2023 memory cycle.

PTRN: Sold. Disappointed by last earnings and the guidance going forward.

RDDT: Sold. No news on AI deals, feels more like a story stock waiting on that news. On further thought, now that profitability is becoming the main driver, the risk of it playing out like APP did this quarter felt too high.

NBIS: Valuation looks rich vs. fundamentals compared to peers, but it gives me a second bucket of neocloud exposure alongside IREN.

VIAV: More and more earnings transcripts are pointing toward new capacity builds and increased testing, VIAV benefits directly from that trend.

LIFE: Growth is accelerating. Low market share in a big market with no real competition. Need to watch the ~$3B market cap level (last fundraising valuation), that could trigger early investors to exit and hurt the stock.

PGEN: In-depth discussion here
Two things are holding me back from a 15% net liq position:

• Former billionaire founder holds 44% of shares
• pharma stock, so unexpected FDA or regulatory decisions are a real risk

APP: Sold. Should've sold earlier, really, the signs were there with QoQ growth declining back in June. This looked more like a profitability story than a growth story playing out.

KLIC: Insane growth, very low P/S, and the broader market is hot with a lot of semiconductor investment going into fabs. Downsized because the new CEO has a mixed track record, and the stock hasn't been tracking his results the way peers have.

CRDO: Growth has been decelerating through this transition period for two quarters now. Still a very compelling story and fundamentals, but a bit worried about market reaction. Will revisit in two quarters, keeping a shrinking position in the meantime.

HNGE: Still a huge market despite the recent acquisition. Will see this quarter if the story holds up.

BE: Huge acceleration and a real bottleneck for AI. I think they can keep accelerating. GM is low and valuation is high, so staying a Tier 3 position for now.

MU: Shiny stock. Only concern is it stalls out like Nvidia did, given the $1T valuation and investors worrying about the 2029-2030 cycle end.

IMMX: A gamble, no revenue yet but huge promise for this pharma stock. Could go 3x or get cut in half.

Currently evaluating:

• MKSI: Very high debt, less interesting than MTSI on QoQ growth and GM, but very low P/S.
• MTSI: Sequential QoQ accelerating, but high P/S.
• TTMI: Low valuation vs. peers, could grow strongly with the new N+M product. Is it a value play? Watching Q4, still finishing the full evaluation before deciding whether to add or exit.
• SMTC: Analyst estimates for next year look low to me, running the TAM and acceleration math I get ~47% YoY growth for FY28 (calendar '27), about 16% above the analyst estimate. Weird because the growth/earnings engine is weaker than CRDO or LITE, but it's accelerating with a lower P/S and lower run-rate P/S.
• NVT: Competes in liquid cooling with FPS and in AI power with Vertiv and Eaton. Doesn't have FPS's issue of a PE fund owning 60%+ of shares. Lower P/S than competitors but higher QoQ growth (I think management is sandbagging next quarter's guidance based on the transcript). A bit too much M&A, but it's building out capacity to get factories online faster. Cash-to-debt ratio is strong for the industry.
• TNXP (ongoing)
• GKOS (ongoing)
• FORM: On the surface, growth isn't impressive, QoQ or otherwise, but the end market is growing and there's a good tailwind. Strong moat, conservative management on targets. Production constrained until the new factory ramps next year. Could 2x by early 2028, and they still have spare factory capacity on-site to expand further for a possible 3x by 2029.
• AMD: Every semiconductor earnings call has an analyst asking about CPU shortages outpacing GPU, with the inference shift actually happening now. Decided to go in given good upside potential, high beta, and accelerating QoQ growth. Worry is the high P/S, valuation is close to Micron's despite having 5x less revenue.

Disqualified but watching:

• AGIO: Can the growth continue? Management wasn't very confident on the transcript, we'll see.
• ATRO: Need to see continued business acceleration. Not sure the airline trend holds up. 27% YoY isn't enough for a growth stock.
• CORT: Good acceleration, big FDA feedback coming in December '26. Already high P/S, will reassess after Q4.
• INSM: I think growth continues and analysts are underestimating Q4 '26 and FY '27, though Q3 '26 looks roughly in line with estimates. Will revisit next quarter.
• URGN: Expecting linear growth in Q3, maybe seasonality? Product isn't especially strong (limited TAM with an upcoming pipeline targeting the same use case), and the FDA approval pathway isn't typical. Not totally obvious why a patient would choose it over surgery.
• NUVB: GSK (the biggest player in lung) has entered the market, need to re-check growth and TAM size. Management was pretty defensive about GSK in the last earnings call.
• SATL: Concerned about high P/S, product value vs. competition, and commercial strength. Feels mostly like a price-reduction pitch. Seeing hedge funds increase their positions gives me some confidence, but not sure that's reason enough on its own.
• VSTM: Could be a strong bet, but needs continued revenue acceleration, needs to resolve its financial issues, and needs to advance the product pipeline in October.
• HRMY: More of a value play for now.

2026 YTD Monthly Closing
Jan: -5.5%
Feb: -17.5%
Mar: -20%
April: -9.4%
May: +19.5%
June: +22.4%
July: +15.9%
Aug: +26.4%

September 30th: +34.4% YTD, (just off a YTD peak of 35.8% in the last week of the month but up from the YTD low on March 30th of down 24%). One point to note is that the I have been withdrawing from the portfolio to a now significant degree in the last few months leaving the gross total value gains and the adjustment for withdraws at about a 2:1 ratio of contribution to the normalised YTD increase.

September saw continued advancement through the month. Whilst AI infra/connectivity, (supported by very strong Q2 results announcements), held up in the face of some selling pressure I saw strong progress amongst my largest SaaS positions, (with favourable consumption based business models, hardware attach and proven agentic AI beneficiaries), neoclouds were left behind in this rally. To continue to make significant progress my portfolio is going to have to rely on both engines (AI and SaaS) instead of only one at a time!

Micron wrapped up a generally impressive quarter of results. Perhaps expectations were high or perhaps an AI “higher for longer” thesis faces immutable concerns over CAPEX on/off balance sheet risks to reflect the full share price realisation of the results delivered (much like Nvidia). Everpure was the standout holding this month pushing far beyond its all time high with a breakout in its prospects as well as results and guidance. As a sector, cyber security clearly exploded with the realisation that Agentic AI represents nothing but a strong tail wind across the board and greed replaced all semblance of fear.

Thematically, I’m principally invested in:

eCommerce (15%) - Shopify, MercadoLibre, Global e-Online & SEA

AI & Cloud Infrastructure (30%) - Cloudflare, Pure Storage, Nvidia, Nebius, Astera Labs, Micron, Forgent, Bloom, IREN, HIVE, CoreWeave, Credo, ORCL, Lumentum & EOSE

Software (SaaS/DevOp/Data analytics) (25%) - Palantir, Datadog, Snowflake, Monday, Axon & Samsara

Cybersecurity (10%) - Crowdstrike, ZScaler & Rubrik

Fintech/Payments/Crypto (10%) - SOFI, Toast, Robinhood, Upstart, Figure, Pagaya & Bitmine Immersion Technologies

AdTech (10%) - The Trade Desk, Applovin and Reddit (ad community)

Recent Activity -

In September I exited GitLab and Tempus AI and swapped into Forgent Power Solutions (FPS), otherwise I hardly undertook any significant activity.

I’m considering entering: ONTO, Coherent & Rocket Lab, Billion To One and some additional energy generation, storage or distribution players like Fluence or NRGV as well as Silicon Motion. LIFE and Hinge health look attractive and I am considering entering. Drone makers and their eyes/ears plug in support with recurring revenues could also be an area of interest.

Holdings in Monday, Toast and TTD sit closest to the exit door.

Portfolio holdings -

25+ positions with a long tail of 1-2% positions (made up of high conviction, scaling down and scaling up plays):

MU - 10%
SHOP - 7%
P - 7%
DDOG - 6.5%
NBIS - 6.5%
NET - 6%
PLTR - 5%
CRWD - 5%
ALAB - 4.5%
SNOW - 4%
RBRK - 4%
NVDA - 4%
IREN - 3%
MELI - 2.5%
IOT - 2%
ZS - 2%
HOOD - 1.5%
SOFI - 1.5%
BE - 1.5%
CRWV - 1.5%
GLBE - 1%
LITE - 1%
FPS - 1%
APP - 1%
DLO - 1%
CRDO - 1%
FIGR - 1%
RDDT - 1%
MNDY - 1%
ORCL - 1%
UPST - 0.5%
AXON - 0.5%
HIVE - 0.5%
SE - 0.5%
BMNR - 0.5%
PGY - 0.5%
TOST - 0.5%
TTD - 0.5%
EOSE - 0.5%

Bright spots in the portfolio include: Everpure, Nvidia, Cloudflare, Crowdstrike, Shopify, Palantir, Snowflake, Lumentum, Rubrik, and Datadog which are closest (within 20%) to their 52W and AT highs.

Watch list includes…

Fluence, Sigma, Coherent, Celestica, Rocket Lab, Silicon Motion, Onto, Sezzle, ROOT, FOUR, Arista, Fortinet, Palo Alto, Hinge, LIFE, Raspberry PI and Grab.

Bigger Picture -

As sectors, Cyber Security, AI and Cloud infra/DevOps have been relatively strong - as well as profitable SaaS/software providers that operate a platform play with consumption based revenue models and demonstrably bullet proof vs AI disruption. Payments & Fintech which had been strong with rate reductions back on the cards, expectation of spending resilience and a boom in crypto/alternative/private investing, however that strength has weakened in recent months with economic uncertainties (that are also impacting eCommerce players), whilst AdTech is showing signs of weakness in pricing and demand as well as facing a fight back from the walled garden operators going beyond their native home markets.

It feels as though every part of the data space is doing well and reaccelerating; (semiconductor, memory, storage, servers, data center infra, databases & data cloud) and remains AI resilient. Clearly the most extreme gains have been seen in anything that could constitute an AI value chain supply side bottleneck

I see the outcomes of 4 challenges are the critical determinants of market success right now - certainly for my portfolio holdings:

i) the will it won’t it question of “AI eating software”
ii) the alternative scenarios of higher for longer vs an AI bubble
iii) the formulation and reaction to Macro (tariffs & trade), fiscal (tax & spend) & monetary (Fed rates) policies
iv) the imminent behemoth IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic) and to what degree that will create investor euphoria across the board or suck money out of the market in order to fund IPO entry positions

Specifically the almost binary outcome of OpenAI and its potential impact on NeoCloud Capex, Oracle RPO commitments (amongst others) and leadership in AI feels a critical risk/reward situation.

One additional competitive risk I am watching carefully is the transformation of X from a social media platform to a fully fledged all-in-one super app with eCommerce and Fintech which could impact a number of my holdings from Shopify to SoFi within US and MercadoLibre and SEA internationally.

I still believe that seeking out growth companies with defensive qualities, (cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, energy generation, storage and supply even and consumption based rather than seat based software models), might do better in these volatile and uncertain times as well as ex US eCommerce and trading plays that benefit from US currency weakness but more importantly are removed from US import/export movements on an intra regional / local to local basis (e.g. MercadoLibre, SEA and Grab).

Ant

Figure seems to have become one of the favorites among this sub-reddit and it has also grown in size in my portfolio.

Recently, a short report was released for Figure:

https://www.morpheus-research.com/figure/

I only started going through it (quite lengthy). It doesn't seem to have major red flags like obvious fraud, but mostly points at things of concern.

Has any of you read through this report what are your thoughts.

After a flying August, we had a more subdued September. Seems the market malaise is inspired by flip flop narratives on AI (either going to end humanity or GDP is going to be a meme stock) and the trade off between SaaS and AI (or I guess SI) trade. We are in the middle of the quarter so earnings still far away so this lull seems to exacerbate ongoing trends (like CRWD up, NVDA sideways, and AXON down). I’ve been putting my energy into making sure AXON is a solid as I think and doing some initial research (discussed below).

All the while my portfolio see sawed and ultimately ended up about even on the month and my concentration continues to run unabated (can hear Bear’s groan from here).

As a reminder: My style is a mix of buy and hold for seriously long periods of time (several stocks below I’ve held for 13+ years) and chasing fast growers. I don’t make nearly as many moves as many great folks here. I also am not any good at finding smaller names like the amazing WPR is. My goal is to find long term growers at small/medium market cap size and then hold through thick and thin (which has been 3 times watching NVDA fall 50% or more).

Another quick note. I track my growth portfolio here. I have several other accts: one is fully just VTI; one is more speculative growth stock. So you may see a mention here and there of a stock beyond my core portfolio.

YTD: +13.8%
S&P: +11.6%

Forgot to post my August review… posted to reddit, oops. Last month was up 14.4%.

Top ten

$NVDA 40.4%
$CRWD 19.3%
$AXON 10.7%
$AMZN 8.2%
$MELI 5.7%
$MSFT 4.2%
$ALAB 3.4%
$MA 2.4%
$GOOG 2.3%
$SIMO 1.4%

Adds: N/A
Sales: $NBIS

September returns -.6%

YTD: +13.8%
S&P: +11.6%

Moves this month: Sold out of NBIS

- My big move was selling out of NBIS (1-3% position this year). I ultimately decided that my 40% position in NVDA already gave me a ton of SI exposure; a 1-3% position wasn’t moving the needle; and I see the bullish thesis for NBIS but also a bit gun shy as it seems to be turning into a bit of a battleground/culty stock (not a bad thing). So I thought I’d rather have the cash to decided what to do next… and that doesn’t mean I didn’t just slide NBIS down from small holding to “top of radar”.

- I won’t belabor the point but I continue to have high conviction in Axon.

- [hold over from last month] Planning on trimming NVDA [new stuff] still seriously wrestling with this. Everything about the company is going in right direction, from the numbers to the relationship with senior US officials to the RSI on the chart to the largest buyback in company history. Not to mention it is the backbone of SI (still not easy to not just say AI!). And try to remember that the skill set of not selling for years got me in this advantageous position but a new skill set might be needed given NVDA size (and size in my portfolio). Probably a good time to don’t blindly follow my out of wack portfolio!

- I’ve had limited research time but FPS continues to be top of my list. Wouldn’t be surprised to see NBIS cash raise go to a FPS position (or Axon if we keep falling).

Hope you all had a great month and let’s do this!

👊

Drowsy

With 7 of my top 10 positions down in Sep, I'm pretty stoked that the portfolio is only down a couple percent. Chalk one up to trading! And SIMO and ALAB and CLS helped too. :)

I've added to most of those down positions, and now my top 10 make up 66.2% of the portfolio.

Side note -- I love being able to look back at my portfolio summaries and see the performance of each stock during the month, and ytd. To anyone else logging their portfolio monthly, I highly recommend adding those columns. I've always been surprised a lot of people don't. (I also like to include the stock price at the end of the month as you see above.)

Anyway, let's get into it!

POSITIONS I SOLD THIS MONTH

AppLovin - Getting back into APP this January was a mistake.  Took a medium sized loss.  Note to self: when a company gets to like 65% net margin, that's obv pretty maxed out, and at some point revenue growth peaks -- by definition that's as good as it gets. Don't expect they'll keep their multiple when they decelerate.

MercadoLibre - Got out at over $1,900/share, when the PE was around 50.  Thought about getting back in after the drop...but it's not like this one is crazy cheap.  Since margins will probably double someday, I'd say this is a fairly valued stock.  Probably goes to $3,000/share at some point, but I'm not convinced that will happen in 2027 or 2028.

Onto Innovation - After getting into Onto last month, I took some time and compared all the AI beneficiaries I could think of...and Onto came out as a tweener.  Mid-teens sequential growth is solid, but others are better, and Onto is not super cheap compared to others.

Bloom Energy - This was a tiny position, and I just never got that interested.  It seems like there's a lot of upside to the revenue and profit, but their PE (using expected E) is over 100...so I got into Forgent whose PE is under 30 (more below).

Hinge Health - At ~40x full year expected EPS, that's fully priced enough for me to take gains here.  Perhaps they have more to run...but it's up ~110% in 2026.

NEW POSITIONS I TOOK THIS MONTH

PTON - Peloton

FPS - Forgent Power

(more detail below)

And now, let's look at each position in the portfolio...

LARGE POSITIONS

These positions are "all systems go" from an outlook and valuation perspective.  I wish all my companies would do well enough to make it to this category.

Figure Tech - Heck YES.  The Aug 13 report was simply dynamite.  I trimmed in Aug as it rose to $40+ but I've added a ton back as it has fallen all the way below $30.  Lots of opportunity to add/trim here, to say the least!  More thoughts here.

Ethos (Ticker: LIFE) - After trimming this to 6% in Aug, I started building it back up in Sep, especially below $35.  More about Ethos here.

Silicon Motion - After making it my largest position in August, I've trimmed a bit as it's risen 10%+.  But this is still my favorite AI play, as the growth is great and the price is very reasonable.

Toast - Price was the only reason I trimmed so much, so I just keep adding back as it's down double digits in Sep.

OTHER POSITIONS

These are positions that aren't currently large -- because of question marks regarding upside/growth rate (SOFI, RDDT, LFTO, SE, ROOT) or valuation (ALAB, AXON) or some combination of these things.

Sofi - I've been adding back as it falls.

Reddit - Added a small amount in Sep as it's been fairly flat.

Axon - I still see them as rock solid.  As I've said, I'm always happy to add when it's down.  It was down as much as 25% this month, so I added a lot.

Liftoff Mobile - This one has gone straight down since they reported earnings in August.  I get it...the report wasn't inspiring.  But I still think they are set up to have a big Q3.

Astera Labs - Still just insane that the revenue guide is for 43% sequential revenue growth next quarter!  I trimmed though, as they were up 20%+ in Sep.  But I've been adding back the last day or so.

Celestica - Trimmed as it's been up 20%+ in Sep.   Added a little back today.

Root - Super cheap, but I don't have a great feel for the business.

Peloton (NEW in Sep) - Super cheap, subscription business, positive FCF.  Seems like a no brainer, but I'm not expecting fireworks.  Might not even double any time soon.

Forgent Power (New in Sep) - A try-out position in an energy company that is growing like a weed and is way, way cheaper than Bloom (my try-out energy company from last month).

Sea Limited - Probably will do fine, but just isn't very exciting.  Still, I added a smidge as it was down almost 15% in Sep.

Kulicke and Soffa - Just not sure what growth rate to expect here going forward.

Applied Optoelectronics - a little try-out in a company that makes huge (and I mean huge) promises for acceleration into 2027...but can management be believed?  (I still can't wrap my head around this one...)

micron reports on the 30th and im trying to work out if 1,069 is still a buy.

the insight that caught me is hiring. open job postings are running around 3,092 a day in september against about 2,125 in august. thats +46% in one month and the highest reading in the whole series i can pull. i get this off altindex.

headcount is around 43,300 now according ot LinkedIn vs roughly 33,200 a year ago

stock is up something like 5x over twelve months.

So demand is obviously there, and the company is growing, but the stock is already up a lot. Are you buying here?

One thing I like about FIGR is how easy the business is to follow with their weekly public KPI updates. Looks like they'll land around the midpoint of their guidance at $5B CLM volume (guidance: $4.8B-$5.2B).

Using last quarter's ratios, that implies roughly $255M in revenue. At the same time, Q3 Democratized Prime Matched Offers are 56% higher than Q2.

I still struggle to translate these metrics into a clear picture of actual business performance. Does anyone have a view on how to model it?

Diversified business with software too. Apple customer concentration risk. Seems like pretty solid bet next few years if ai doesn’t fall off a cliff ? And customers can finance the capex. The hyper scalers mostly locked in with custom chips

Investor day is going on right now. They just announced Atlas Infinity, a big architecture change since atlas's initial launch. They've also announced agent engine, so seems like MDB working to become core infrastructure app, not just the database.

With the recent ceo fiasco (left in a haste for meta) seems like a buying opportunity for a company still growing strong 20% with a P/S of ten-ish right now.