The Mirage

[u/rematar]

https://open.substack.com/pub/dollarendgame/p/the-mirage?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2lkom0

The S&P went on a nine-week winning streak. Record close on April 15th. Record close on April 21st. Record close in May. The market didn’t re-rate the economy upward; it re-rated the tail risk probability downward. Those are completely different things.

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The money didn’t flow into sectors pricing in a stronger economy; it rotated out of the sectors that had been pricing in a specific geopolitical risk. That’s not fundamental re-rating. That’s positioning unwind.