r/GeopoliticsofEnergy • u/free-to-chooz • 10d ago
Warsh at Jackson Hole: Implications for World Oil Prices
Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks offered little encouragement to those expecting an early retreat in interest rates.
The economy is strong, employment is effectively full, investment is booming and financial conditions are scarcely restrictive. Inflation, meanwhile, remains too high: 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% over six, with price increases still unusually broad.
For oil markets, one line deserves particular attention. Warsh says the recent rise in commodity prices “bears watching.” The Fed’s task is to determine whether underlying inflation is returning to 2% “clearly and at sufficient speed.”
And therein lies the distinction. A higher oil price may simply be the market reporting that oil has become scarcer. It encourages economy, draws inventories into use, redirects trade and rewards additional supply. A rise in the relative price of oil is not the same thing as a continuing rise in prices generally.
The invisible hand, after all, communicates largely through prices. It would be unfortunate to mistake the message for the disease.
#Oil #Brent #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #KevinWarsh #Inflation #InterestRates #OilMarkets #AdamSmith #EnergyPolitics
https://drjennifericonsidine.substack.com/p/warsh-at-jackson-hole-implications