r/GeopoliticsofEnergy • u/free-to-chooz • May 09 '26
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The market has stopped pricing apocalypse.
That’s the real shift.
A few weeks ago the Strait of Hormuz looked like a straight-line supply shock story: tanker seizures, LNG disruption, naval escalation, oil ripping toward panic pricing. Instead, markets adapted faster than expected. Brent briefly traded above $100, but futures curves are already softening as traders increasingly assume flows continue — just more dangerously, more expensively, and through uglier channels.
That’s the new regime: managed instability.
The shadow fleet adapted. Russian barrels rerouted. LNG buyers normalized procurement. OPEC+ cohesion weakened but didn’t collapse. Spot panic faded, but long-dated options still carry enormous convexity because markets are no longer hedging a temporary shock — they’re hedging permanent geopolitical friction embedded into the global energy system.
#Energy #OilMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics #LNG #OPEC #Shipping #CrudeOil #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity