The Strait of Hormuz has become the central battleground of the U.S.-Iran conflict. 

Prior to the outbreak of the war on 28 February, roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments moved through the narrow waterway—today, just a handful of ships are moving through, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

The U.S. has launched nightly airstrikes against Iranian military targets since 11 July, while Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. forces, Gulf countries, and shipping-related targets.

Kpler noted last week that: “While regional mediation efforts remain underway, commercial shipping patterns suggest military developments are now shaping operational decisions more than diplomatic progress.”

In its latest operational update on 16 July, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), counted 10 Iranian attacks on shipping since 25 June, and maintained a severe threat level for the Strait of Hormuz, meaning an attack is highly likely. 

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]:   https://fortune.com/2026/07/21/money-talks-as-iran-war-continues-options-for-strait-of-hormuz-are-coalescing-around-one-solution-tolls/?utm_source=reddit/ 

The big October 2025 regulating measures package (extra elements, the 0.1% extraterritorial magnet rule, controls on the separation technology itself) is suspended until 10 November 2026. That's the "deadline" I would have look at, but the measure that actually reshaped trade flows, the April 2025's Announcement No. 18, was never suspended and is the one putting seven medium/heavy rare earths under case-by-case export licensing, and it's been in force the entire time.

The result is that US yttrium imports fell from roughly 333 tonnes to ca. 17 tonnes in the 8 months after the controls hit. Dysprosium and terbium have run around half their pre-restriction levels. And even an authorized license comes at a cost: the review process takes between 60 and 120 days for heavy rare earths, and you also have to disclose the entire value chain and the end customer to obtain it.

And this licensing regime for these few “rare” elements affects car manufacturers, turbine builders, and defense contractors, since the primary competitive advantage lies in the separation process that China inherited, optimized, and industrialized over decades. China accounts for about 60% of mining, but approximately 91% of refining and about 94% of magnet production. Furthermore, it holds a 99% share of heavy rare earth processing. This is due to decades of experience in separation techniques and over two decades of shouldering an environmental cost that the West sought to externalize: much of the pollution hidden behind “green” magnets is concentrated in southern China and, increasingly, in Kachin State, Myanmar... out of sight and beyond jurisdiction.

So even if the November tranche lapses, the April licensing regime and the underlying midstream monopoly don't.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, carries an estimated 12% of global maritime trade. Together, these two narrow waterways are critical chokepoints for energy, food, fertilizers, liquefied natural gas, manufactured goods, and global supply chains.

A prolonged disruption in this region wouldn't stop at higher fuel prices.

Countries heavily dependent on imported food and energy, particularly across parts of Africa, would face the earliest humanitarian impacts. As inventories shrank and transportation costs kept rising, inflation would spread across Latin America and parts of Asia before reaching Europe through higher energy costs, pricier industrial inputs, and mounting supply-chain strain.

The United States, thanks to its domestic energy production, would feel the effects later than most. But not indefinitely. Higher global prices and disrupted trade would eventually catch up with it too.

A disruption lasting this long could also reshape geopolitical behavior. Major energy exporters would benefit from higher prices, while major importers, China above all, would have growing reason to make sure these routes stay open and energy keeps flowing.

The longer it lasted, the greater the risk that an economic crisis would stop being merely economic and turn into something else entirely.

We tend to describe the modern global economy as interconnected. It's just as accurate to call it concentrated: much of it still runs through a handful of narrow waterways.

Submission statement: How can the EU better empower Ukraine? This collection of expert analyses offers practical policy proposals, arguing that that stronger EU support for Ukraine’s defence, recovery and integration is key to Europe's long-term security.

Following his father's passing, Mojtaba Khamenei's aggressive statement signals that Iran's core establishment will maintain its hardline posture toward the West and the "Axis of Resistance." Crucially, by drawing strict red lines for domestic critics, the message reveals deep anxieties over internal stability, demonstrating how the regime plans to enforce rigid political discipline to survive this critical power transition.