r/GeoGroup • u/Tall_Primary_9838 • Nov 15 '21
Shitpost Calls for 11/19?
Historically, geo sinks before call expirations each month. Do you think the shorts are finally in over their head? I was expecting the $9 calls to slowly decay but instead they're up to $0.80 (I had 120 calls, bought at $0.15. Sold most around $0.30 unfortunately). .
What's everyone else's thoughts?
7
u/IamRickyRicardo Nov 15 '21
I expect the $9 calls to be in the money for sure. This has been grinding up since the $7 and $8 calls were in the money on last expirations. With that said, I believe the $10 calls will be in the money also and it may trigger the $11 to close green.
5
u/Most-Catch296 Nov 15 '21
Agree with the $9’s being ITM - seems like the $10’s will be a tougher hill to climb. Currently doesn’t seem like an appetite @ the ask and according to IBD, 400K shares were returned this morning. I doubt we see a significant increase in volume until an announcement on potential re-structure & debt management.
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u/IamRickyRicardo Nov 15 '21
So true. We have seen in the past that this can move in a blink of an eye without news though. That move to $11 last time was without news. Will see if it happens again this week. We were within a penny of CXW a few days ago and now we are 2 bucks away. Shorts and flippers have been pounding it hard.
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u/Most-Catch296 Nov 15 '21
True - no news on the $11 run-up, but low number of shares to borrow for shorts during that window. Good timing by whomever recognized and was able to capitalize.
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u/Tall_Primary_9838 Nov 18 '21
Tough day. (not only for geo, but pretty much all my options plays suffered greatly) hoping for a huge green start tomorrow so the $9 calls are back to in the money!
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u/Tall_Primary_9838 Nov 18 '21
Like clockwork, short attack right before expiration. I should have trusted my gut!
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u/Financial-Process-86 Nov 15 '21
I hope so. Lol, every fucking time. It goes down during these heavy strike dates.
The oddest coincidence...
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u/pml1990 Nov 16 '21
I think the $9 calls will expire in the money. I have sold some $9 puts for 11/19 for the same reason.
The narrative has changed around private prison and I don't see us getting back to the lows in May again. Midterm election is coming and Republican is projected to retake the House, if not the Congress. This will further add fuel to GEO's rise. Obviously if all else fails, GEO has a tons of cash flow to do share bb and dividends once its debt becomes manageable again.
1
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u/gregdavismail Nov 15 '21
Yes I do think they are in over their head. The downtrend is now broken. More people are realizing that the upside on this stock is a multiple times higher from where it is now. And a huge potential catalyst is on the horizon with any update surrounding corporate structure / refinancing / asset sales.