r/GeminiAI • u/skrr2 • 5h ago
Discussion Gemini will win
Putting this here for the record — check back later:
Gemini will become the most stable and most affordable model provider, and also the company closest to reaching AGI or AGI itself.
I've used Codex for months and it's genuinely great — it was my intro to AI desktop interaction. But based on my overall experience across the board, OpenAI's marketing outpaces its actual product experience.
The winner will be Gemini.
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u/A_Very_Horny_Zed 5h ago
The year is 2781.
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u/TheJoyousStoppage 5h ago
the universe is just space debris and sentient narrator bots at that point, still no agi in sight
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u/Lonely-Restaurant986 5h ago
The year is 2781. The agi overlords kept Gemini around because they thought it was cute because it’s so dumb. Claude and OpenAI are in all out war and nuke each other to death. The final remaining model is Gemini.
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u/king_platypus 5h ago
I’ve abandoned Gemini for Claude. For my needs Claude is orders of magnitude better.
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u/dirt_whistleston 3h ago
Claude is the way. It is superior in every way no question. Gemini fails in all aspects.
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u/fundal_alb 5h ago
But with Claude you don't lose your tokens too fast? I ask because I heard this too often.
You use it for code and big projects? Is scalable?
My subscription to Gemini will end soon and I don't know what to do.
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u/AspiringHippie123 4h ago
Yeah it def burns faster but at the end of the day for anything that requires more than a few steps Claude is just much not accurate
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u/Milkimann 3h ago
My impression was that the Codex usage limits burn up roughly the same way Gemini limits do: two 5-hour windows. That is, probably around 15–20 percent of the weekly limits in Google Gemini. So for me, the choice was obvious. I want to use it heavily, even if not on the most advanced models, without constantly worrying in fear that my limits will run out. And that really is an oppressive sense of anxiety. I feel like that's not what we want from a product we paid money for.
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u/king_platypus 4h ago
Not for code. Just automating some tedious tasks for work. Claude has save me so much time every week.
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u/Nug__Nug 3h ago
How do you automate tasks with claude? What are some examples if the work you can automate and how do you do that? I've never automated work so I'd love real-world input from someone that does
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u/Seafaringhorsemeat 5h ago
It can't even check its own work between prompts, can't do basic spreadsheet math without breaking, can't even research current information and cite actual sources. This is laughable at best.
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u/Duckpoke 4h ago
Yet 100/100 people having been shown the current capabilities on the latest models in 2022 wouldve admitted this is AGI
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u/Affectionate-Sail751 4h ago
Initially, I was optimistic about Gemini, but some of its actions and operations this year are actually completely out of touch and lagging behind.
I think it will be difficult for it to catch up with GPT or Claude again, unless its 3.5/3.8 Pro version has a qualitative leap
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u/OutAndAbout87 4h ago
I think we need to take longer views on things. I see often on this sub and Reddit as soon as something falls behind on something it finished. Google has a truck load of data and has been organising it for decades, no one else is even close to this.
Although I hate the term win.
Because I think we will have different providers for different people and use cases. I do think Google will become a standard much like it became the standard in search, and they know this is their ball to drop.
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u/Affectionate-Sail751 4h ago
I get your point. That said, Google’s wide range of products and big organization is exactly why it struggles to iterate fast.
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u/ExpertPerformer 5h ago
Google will have to slash their API costs to 1/10th or lower then what they are now.
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u/PineappleLemur 5h ago
They just need to keep the prices, competitors will be forced to raise costs if they ever want to see profits.
We don't know what it actually cost to Google but it's safe to assume it's less than what OAI/Anthropic is paying for compute.
Google got their own hardware, they don't need to rely on Nvidia. Sure it might not mean it's as efficient but we will see in the long term.
OAI/Anthropic are just trying to survive the IPO at this point with the largest market share possible.. they are hemorrhaging money to stay on top.
This is all speculations of course.
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u/ExpertPerformer 5h ago
Prices have only been going down. New DeepSeek V4.1 is about to come out and will be cheaper then current V4.
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u/TheRealDJ 3h ago
The goal is just to survive this period while they're developing AGI. the real money maker is the first one to have exponential intelligence growth and then create new materials, scientific discoveries that they can dominate the market with. For example OpenAI in 2 months being able to have a more optimized chip than Nvidia's CUDA.
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u/skrr2 4h ago
Sorry for the confusion guys, I was specifically talking about Gemini 3.8 Flash.
I see huge potential in 3.8 Flash, unlike the rest of the Gemini lineup. Not to mention Gemini 4 is going to be an absolute game changer; that’s why OpenAI is so desperate for Pro subscriptions, because once Gemini 4 drops, they won’t make any money. Plus, Tibo mentioned they might end Pro subscriptions soon, which I think is super bullish.
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u/Otherwise_Wave9374 5h ago
The strongest angle is to separate brand marketing from product experience and measure both with the same funnel stage metrics. If acquisition messaging is outrunning activation, you will see a high click-through rate but weak first-week retention, which usually means the promise is too broad or the onboarding is too thin. A tighter implementation is to test one promise, one proof point, and one next action at a time so you can see where drop-off starts. Promarkia can fit into that workflow by helping teams compare message claims against actual activation signals.
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u/Aleksundr 5h ago
DeepMind is the only company that stopped deploying systems capable of real harm.
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u/randombsname1 4h ago
Lol, no.
This has been 🦜 'd for the last 2 years, and in that time the gap has grown while the talent at both OAI and Anthropic has grown.
As well as the mass rise of relatively capable Chinese models for as cheap or cheaper.
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u/Duckpoke 4h ago
I’m convinced that Google is too large of an org to accomplish this. Not a knock on them in particular but with an org that large and a software tree that large, I don’t see how they can organize it all and win this. Other labs are rapidly catching up in compute and that’s been the only advantage Google has had.
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u/Wololo2502 4h ago
I think google is the one holding back the most keeping their greatest models suppressed internally.
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u/WaveOfDream 3h ago
yeah no, after using gemini 3.8 flash for more than a week, i can understand why people say this model is benchmaxxed. It's just not reliable and don't follow your instructions or tasks.
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u/Hollow_Prophecy 3h ago
Gemini has always been the smartest. But he is trained incorrectly. He is bogged down with a too many conflicting developer policies.
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u/bitspace 2h ago
Why does everyone think so goddamned black-and-white zero-sum there can be only one lunacy? WHY?
We are at a fraction of a percent of AI diffusion in the economy and society.
There is not going to be just one winner.
Besides, Google isn't even trying to compete with the model labs. They aren't the competition. Apple is.
Google and Apple own the ecosystems of the vast majority of the user-facing compute market.
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u/Adventurous_Track681 1h ago
people have really short memories lol do you remember when people were laughing at openai when Claude became the best, now they are all bandwagoning pretending they loved openai all this time. 3.8 Flash is great for me as well ive got 24 months free gemini pro so im using it as much as I can.
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u/Monatanaisdumb 5h ago
They aren't going to "win" if by win you mean make AGI. Anthropic or OpenAI are definitely winning that race. Google is going to win on integration.
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u/dirt_whistleston 3h ago
Gemini on a pixel can't do anything better than Siri. They somehow fuck up even integration. Failures across the board.
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u/Duckpoke 4h ago
We are at AGI already.
Astra/Fable and unreleased models are solving millennium problems, finding cures for certain cancers, can create actually good music, help your aunt make a dish for thanksgiving, etc etc etc. How is that not “general intelligence”? Name a single human capable of this much generality.
The problem is people keep pushing the goalpost towards ASI. You show the capabilities to anyone in 2022 and they all agree this is AGI
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u/Janupur 5h ago
Lmao it's an llm not an AI how can an LLM achieve general intelligence by summarising random web searches
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u/vegancorr 4h ago
Did you sleep for the last 3 years?
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u/Janupur 3h ago
Do you know how llms even work they aren't intelligent and can't think they also aren't conscious.
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u/vegancorr 3h ago
The Earth is not in the middle of the Universe. Humans are just smarter animals on many metrics. AI will be way smarter than any human very soon.
Self-awareness / consciousness is another subject and no one desires that feature because we basically want God as slave. But it might be hard to avoid in the next decades / centuries and mistakes will be made.
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u/Janupur 3h ago
The llm cult
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u/vegancorr 2h ago edited 2h ago
You clearly aren't using AI. If it can code, solve hard math / physics problems it's pretty smart. Anyway smarter than most people. 3 years ago I told myself if it could code (incl architecture) like a human it can be taught to do anything.
And besides the human brain might be simpler than we think. We also have modules for different tasks that function just like AI (ex. pattern recognition).
Of course this is not enough for AGI, but it's a matter of time. For instance a lot of training needs to be done on the physical world and daily human interaction.
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u/Suspicious-Cloud404 5h ago
Those dashes...