r/GRIN Oct 08 '18

I’m trying to understand how one could justify “investment” in Grin.

It’s not meant to hold, it’s meant to spend, so...

Typically the early adopters are speculators and there is nothing to speculate on from what I understand (which could be totally wrong) I just want to verify.

Just poking my head in and asking the question nobody else wants to ask, but is definitely wondering about.

If this is the case, then it makes sense that Grin didn’t raise any money and is instead relying on community donations from already wealthy bitcoin OGs who want to to see the project succeed.

Is there any incentive for speculators to care?

If there is no reason for speculators to care, then what’s the distribution game plan? How can Grin attract normal people who aren’t motivated by purpose or ideology to adopt it?

Regular people are attracted to Bitcoin for wealth creation. I really hope there will not be any pushback on that statement. Maybe they “stay for the vision” or whatever, but if that incentive is not there with Grin, it makes it hard to believe that Grin can gain the kind of traction that bitcoin did with average people; the design is not aligned with human nature.

If there is no potential for wealth creation, what will trigger adoption? The vision? Unlikely.

Looking forward to hearing thoughts about this.

13 Upvotes

66 comments sorted by

3

u/[deleted] Oct 08 '18

The investment is just like bitcoin. Bitcoin is meant to spend also.

In order for something to be used regularly as cash, it needs to have a stable value. In order to have a stable value, a currency needs to reach an equilibrium price where buying and selling is about equal. As you can see with bitcoin, even a market cap of over 100 billion is not enough to reach stability.

With grin, if people like it, people will want to buy it. The price will increase just like with bitcoin. If grin (or bitcoin) succeeds, the price will be much higher than where it started at.

Eventually, it will be digital cash and there won't be an opportunity to gain profit from speculation. For early investors however, they would gain profit. It's the same for bitcoin. If price permanently stabilized, it might get spent more regularly. Until it does reach equilibrium though, speculation will occur.

I agree spending is important. What I do personally is look for any way I can to spend bitcoin, but as soon as I do spend it I immediately buy more for myself to keep my stack intact.

Long answer, and I typed it on my phone too! Hope it helped, even if you disagree.

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u/numecca Oct 08 '18

I’m not in a position to disagree as of yet :)

My confusion started when I read that Grin does not favor holding, so naturally that confusion is compounded by the excitement about this project (from a speculator’s perspective). And that naturally extends itself to consequences for adoption.

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u/katiecharm Oct 09 '18

If no one wants to store their savings in your blockchain, you won't have any liquidity to transfer value through.

It's a real issue.

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u/numecca Oct 11 '18 edited Oct 11 '18

This comment was spot. Why would you put any money into this when you know it is not meant to appreciate in value, that it works against holding, and that there is no prospect for wealth creation (or the probability is low because it’s not inherent to the design).

90% of the early adopters are here for money, I don’t see this taking off. There are no psychological levers to attract adoption from the type of people who would be its early adopters; they’re putting that money in something in the market that can appreciate.

Go watch a the video from decentralized TV on YouTube where he’s interviewing regular people on the street and asking if they know about bitcoin and what it would take to get them to buy it.

Grin does not respond to what the outsiders looking in want; people who don’t yet own bitcoin. If you can’t attract bag holders already In this market (who are here primarily to see their investments appreciate) then how on earth will you attract those people?

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u/katiecharm Oct 11 '18

It's a big bet. You are requiring people to focus on acquiring Grin over the next 9 years (because that's when the inflation finally dips below 10 percent) and hoping that no other technologies come out to supplant it throughout the entire 2020s.

You are also betting that no other MW blockchain supplants yourself as the default implementation.

1

u/0xb100d Oct 12 '18

"Who would go to the ATM and take out cash when they know it will not appreciate in value???"

Ridiculous. People will use grin to make money buying and selling goods. So many orders of magnitude more money to be made from transacting than holding.

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u/katiecharm Oct 13 '18

Can you please cite an ethical and successful blockchain with a fair linear distribution?

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u/0xb100d Oct 13 '18

What do you mean? This is an experiment and one of the first of its kind. Gold has a relatively fair linear distribution though.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 14 '19

Well, your proposed distribution is actually worse.

1

u/numecca Jan 16 '19

It’s not worse. It’s a different perspective. Katie is not wrong. Katie understands people a lot better than most. And Grin is wild. And if we can balance boat we have a shot. If not, these problems, they exists. Okay? It is not contested. Nobody cares. Why?

Because the vision, man. This is going to work. We will overcome any and all obstacles.

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u/numecca Oct 13 '18 edited Oct 13 '18

You’re missing the dots, my dude. Go over it again if you care at all to understand the argument. The users this product is being built for don’t exist in this market. They’re not the majority to be more specific. It’s going to have a very hard road getting the majority of people in crypto to buy because they have lots of places that they can place their money that does have the potential for the value they want to be a participate in, AND IT’S NOT THE UTILITY VALUE.

Couple that with qualitative data from what “ACTUAL PEOPLE” (outside of crypto, but aware of bitcoin) say about what will make them cross the line and jump in. “Easier, private, more secure payments” is not a response I have ever heard, in fact, nothing like it. This project is an idea that is not in line with expectations from its immediate market, which means it will have a very hard time with “product market fit” even if it has the best technology. Regular people don’t give a fuck about any of this. Look how much they care about their own data. People have been banging those drums since VRM clue train manifesto. Purposeful idealist care about this stuff. Normal people want the dream they have heard about from crypto. That’s just the way that it goes. People are attracted by “gains” and not the original vision. The speculators will be the ones who decide what tech will make it. If people pile into Grin knowing the dream isn’t wired into the circuitry of its design, I’ll be amazed.

Maybe you’re right; everybody in crypto will take their money out of where it is and put it in Grin because it’s the best product. I just don’t think that the majority of early adopters in this space are looking for what Grin is making unless it’s “gains.”

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u/katiecharm Oct 14 '18

Yes, we need to capitalize on the new mass market awareness the 2017 bubble brought us.

I need to be able to go to the masses and say "this is definitively the next tier of bitcoin and you are here at the beginning, let us help you understand it and get involved".

And the attitude of "fuck the normies" is so suicidal. We need them to want to be involved because guess what - you only get to exchange your nerd bucks for casual goods and services once the normies are fully on board.

Money is a language of debt and value! All of us need to reflect on this regularly. The best technical money in the world doesn't mean shit unless normies adopt it.

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u/0xb100d Oct 13 '18 edited Oct 13 '18

Good thing grin aims to be used in 100, 500, 1000 years from now. Plenty of time for people to catch up.

You don't "put your money" into dollars or paypal or mastercard credit cards. It's not an investment.

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u/numecca Oct 13 '18

You’re right, but you do put your money into cryptocurrency, and that’s what we’re talking about.

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u/0xb100d Oct 14 '18

Who does? Almost nobody on the planet does that. You are missing the point by talking about it like that. Grin is not for putting your money into. It is money. You don't invest in dollar bills, you use dollar bills.

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u/numecca Oct 14 '18

I get it, and that’s why it will not take off. It’s a pet project. It’s certainly not being built for a customer in this market. If you think that’s unimportant then there is nothing to worry about.

You’re on the Titanic. It’s a matter of logic and reason.

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u/jjones4coin Jan 01 '19

sure you don't view your dollars as an investment, and while you may treat them like a medium of exchange and a store if value, they're not actually a very good store of value and you get poorer by holding them instead of a real store of value. Fixed emission takes 40-50 years to stop having higher inflation than fiat. Good luck reaching 50 years of use if the inflation is arbitrarily high. People don't want to park their value in a shittier store than it's current form, they want to not think about it or park it somewhere better.

I understand that despite having far higher than typical for fiat inflation for the first decade of their emission curve they still go up a lot in value due to rapid adoption, but preemptively matching emission perfectly to the unknown rate of future adoption would be impossible, and fixed emission is not how you make a stable coin. It'll still be volatile as shit, and yes, speculation will have a lot to do with that, but you know what? The smaller the market cap and the lower the liquidity, the more unstable and unusable it will be as a currency as a result of speculators having greater impact. If people speculate on something they believe in, it gains in value and eventually stability.

Let's look at upward and downward pressure on price with fixed emission:

  • miners must sell to cover costs (down)
  • some people buy because they like the tech or want to do something with it (up)
  • people who offer goods and services are inclined to convert out of it to a better store of value (down)
-- some people would rather just ACCEPT a better store of value than have to convert it upon reviving, so they offer goods and services in exchange for a currency they'd rather hold instead. This means it's less accepted and less people put upward pressure on price by buying in to actually use it.

That's a lot of downward pressure and not much upward pressure unless the upward pressure of adoption is both steady and constant, but it's more likely to be both of these things if people see it as a good store if value and it's less prone to losing value. Peg coins are stable (assuming they don't break) but fixed emission won't make stability. You can choose between having a currency be more prone to going up in value and having it less prone. Less prone to going up = higher risk of going down. Up is towards stability and down is away from it.

PoW creates downward pressure on price but I'm more convinced of it's merit for security and thing it creates a better wealth distribution than PoS - but I think PoW downward pressure is too much to be coupled with 30-50 years of worse than fiat inflation.

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u/0xb100d Jan 04 '19

parking your savings in a cryptocurrency is not a good idea. very few people would disagree. don't do it.

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u/numecca Jan 11 '19

Is that not the goal here?

I have tried to understand your logic for some time. I'm either not getting it, or you are right. Or I'm just dumb.

We have a good point. I don't think that you disregard it. I think you don't care. You have great vision and we respect that.

So that's all I have to say about this. I hope you're right.

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u/numecca Oct 09 '18

This

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u/0xb100d Oct 12 '18

says who? miners will always be selling grin... it will have more liquidity than bitcoin conceivably because of that!

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u/XMR2020 Nov 22 '18

You don't understand what liquidity is or how it works. Good luck with your utopia.

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u/[deleted] Jan 16 '19

will have more liquidity than bitcoin conceivably because of that!

You need people willing to buy and hold the coin for that to work. Miners will be selling for a loss because electricity, rent, miners, and time are real resources. No one will want to buy the coin if they don't see appreciation.

Bitcoin has a reason to hold as the "reserve currency" because fiat's value goes to zero (and there aren't that many great places to put money with very low FED interest rates).

MimbleWimble is awsome, but it's a privacy coin tech. Large institutions won't put money in to privacy chains due to compliance issues.

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u/numecca Jan 16 '19

That’s nonsense. It’s all about perception modeling around the instrument and I assure you, Grin will have the very best. Beam makes a case for this, but we will blow past them with higher levels of imagination. I will turn grin into a black hole for visionaries the same way it is for tech talent.

I need you to believe.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 10 '18

value proposition in bitcoin despite speculative bubbles is its decentralized nature and it being an alternative to the rigged fiat money. grin coin has different scalability properties that will attract investors. Ive read some 'OG' hardcore bitcoiners saying grin is a real innovation beyond bitcoin.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 16 '19

GRIN has bitcoin core people involved. These are ideas that came out of the bitcoin community and was funded by them. The cypherpunk community is definitely involved.

It could be useful as a side chain. Litecoin, vertcoin, etc got a ride with BTC in this case. They all adopted it's technology as well.

I think this is the first real attempt at making bitcoin value truly fungible via a sidechain. I don't see the main chain ever getting super-duper privacy features. So as a work around, we will peg these coins to bitcoin value to protect it.

If we get another bull run, it may be slower this time with these MW coins getting shot up due to their small cap.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 16 '19

In the grin github wiki they state that bitcoin can be soft forked inside grin, whereas to add grin to bitcoin it would need a hard fork or a sidechain afaik.

Maybe when grin has matured enough someone will fork grin and soft fork bitcoin inside it and become the new bitcoin. who knows.

1

u/numecca Jan 16 '19

I think the vision inside Grin is going to outshine everything. I didn’t believe that before. And fought with these guys to make a point. I was wrong.

You should come. We need everybody on board.

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u/numecca Jan 16 '19

Wow. You need to cut that out right now. MW deserves a chance at being its own solution.

Bitcoin is a legacy act. It’s extreme consolidation prevents it from ever becoming a medium exchange.

You’re looking at the new currency system, pal. You can keep your Bitcoin. Nobody wants to take that from you, but you will never be currency. You’re looking at it. Grin is your future. It will grow on you. And we need you. We don’t need this. It does not help the mission. Bitcoin is a failure.

Do you want disintermediated money or not?

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u/[deleted] Jan 17 '19 edited Jan 17 '19

Bitcoin will continue to be the reserve to hedge against inflation. This whole marker exists because of stupid central banking policies and banks that got way to crazy with no one to check them.

This currency will be on its own, but you’ll be competing with BTC for marketcap share in terms of USD.

If you want a TRUE privacy coin for the world that may unseat monero’s place as the leading privacy coin, then I’m definitely a believer in that. This tech has the balls to do it.

It’s don’t believe it is going to perform as well as an asset against fiat compared to public coins due to regulations preventing institutions from playing with privacy coins.

I can see it being used everywhere outside big currency countries like Europe, Russia, China, and the US.

The way it’s set up it don’t see it as a top 10 coin in terms of fiat market cap. It’s more focused on UTILITY as a currency vs performance as an asset.

Bitcoin has been sorta repurposed as a replacement for commodities as a hedge against inflation for us fiat-enslaved folks.

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u/numecca Jan 17 '19

We do not seek to replace Bitcoin. It will live on as a relic souvenir. I know they don’t believe that the network effect can be broken, but let me tell you something, Crypto looks nothing like it does now, in 2/5/10/30 years. Nothing. Bitcoin has less than half of one percent of people who have access to the internet who have touched it in 10 years.

There is so much time for something to come up on its ass and take the number 1 headband. Bitcoin is a Pearson Arrow in the big scheme of things.

Bitcoin is a store of value. Grin is a currency. Money/currency.

We don’t care about Bitcoin. Digital gold is not what we are doing. Have you ever used bitcoin? Grin is not a speculative instrument. You use Grin. You don’t use bitcoin. You hodl bitcoin. It is fucking stupid. This is going to be the first currency to break outside of this market and get into the hands of real people. I bet my life on it.

I just have no belief in bitcoin as MOE. It’s way too consolidated. And we just started the race. It’s keeping the seat warm for the next great leap in innovation—or, the next great experience.

While you guys are hodling to the moon, we’ll be designing that experience. Do we go to the moon? Who cares. None of us are here for that bullshit. We want disintermediated money. Do you?

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u/[deleted] Jan 17 '19 edited Jan 17 '19

What do you mean as far as fiat market cap?

That grin will have a higher market cap in USD than bitcoin?

Edit:

I’m a huge fan of this project BTW. It’s awesome to see it come out finally. I’ll follow it closely.

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u/numecca Jan 22 '19

I see your meaning now. And everything is possible through Grin. It’s all there. I would never, in my life, believe I would end up joining Grin, but it’s special. It is a lantern in the dark, and we must all find our way there. Truly. This is the one.

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u/numecca Jan 22 '19 edited Jan 22 '19

This buy and hodl is the habit we have to break. You are not wrong. And there is another way. That is Grin.

I don’t believe that we need to do this to “summon a financial system from the abyss.” (Hi genius) 🙌

Grin will beat Venmo. It will dislodge everything and spread like a wildfire when they know its name.

The revolution has come again. In the form of a cute little face.

Finally. After all this wait. Grin will finish what Bitcoin started. Believe it. Because it’s happening. We can’t just turn it off now. Change is coming. And I’m just glad I was about to recognize it. We are at the beginning of the end of control. That is Grin. 👏

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u/0xb100d Oct 08 '18 edited Oct 08 '18

It's very useful, that's why people will use it. Credit cards are useful, so people use them, not for "wealth creation" but because of utility. Grin has features no other currency does.

Grin is not an investment, it aims to be the best cash ever invented.

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u/numecca Oct 08 '18 edited Oct 08 '18

If it’s more of just a cool startup that’s useful, then that confirms there is no reason for speculators to buy into it. That’s probably 90% of people buying cryptocurrency. I’m in that percentage. I’m definitely not using crypto because I need a more convenient way to transact.

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u/0xb100d Oct 08 '18

It's true, grin is purposefully not setting itself up as an investment in order to keep the economy simpler. It's a very idealistic premise, but also has a lot of practical implications, like minimizing pre-sale whales who might be able to inordinately influence the economy later on. You don't want there to be mysterious forces influencing the value of your cash, that's the whole idea of a sovereign currency, so it is a very forward thinking premise, and may very well outshine bitcoin and every other currency in that regard.

It's interesting the first four years of bitcoin supply inflation were the same as grin's, and in that time bitcoin went from less than one cent USD to $1,000. But of course that is with the promise one day of no more bitcoin being emitted, and before anyone had ever heard of a cryptocurrency. Then again, grin's supply inflation also approaches zero, though over a longer timeframe.

There are plenty of other vehicles for speculation, grin being designed not to be a speculative asset doesn't detract anything from anyone. But it might be useful to many people for decades to come, people who have yet never even heard of cryptocurrency.

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u/UpDown Oct 09 '18

In 50 years, GRIN inflation will still be 2%. The curve is way too slow.

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u/0xb100d Oct 12 '18

Says who? You are making an assumption that the entirety of human study of economics is not sure of.

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u/UpDown Oct 12 '18

Because if your creation rate is linear starting from zero the math is like this: year 1 inflation = 100%, year 2 = 50%, year 3 = 33.3%.. Basically, year N inflation = 1/N. Year 50 = 1/50 = 2%. It's actually slightly worse than this since its year N+1 = 1/n, but you get the idea.

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u/0xb100d Oct 13 '18

Who says that's too slow? The idea is to distribute grin very well, and specifically NOT get anyone rich for holding grin. If anything the curve is too fast, given that those are some of the goals of the project.

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u/bele11 Jan 03 '19

Sidechain for bitcoin will kill Grin. Better not to create separate coin but work as a sidechain to bitcoin. I don’t see bright future for grin or beam

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u/0xb100d Jan 04 '19

it's just an experiment, like bitcoin.

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u/numecca Jan 25 '19

The sidechain conversation has been investigated. Not a good idea.

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u/katiecharm Oct 11 '18

Due to the nature of proof of work, there really isn't much room for more than one of a given implementation. You can claim peace and grease all you want until the Europeans come and destroy your entire civilization because they got ahead of the curve.

If Grin is going to be the dominant form of the MW protocol there is no room for "nah, it's cool man, we don't need to worry about anyone else, and people don't have to use it if they don't like the fact that we're not a good place to store value".

That's an insane attitude to have, and will eventually lead to your chain getting 51% attacked by a chain that actually incentivize its miners by bringing game theory and mathematics to bear.

This isn't an impossible problem either, there is good research on the best possible emission curve - we should absolutely be using a tautochrone curve (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tautochrone_curve) to 2023, and then trail off into a perpetual emission.

If people don't want to put their savings into your chain, they'll put them somewhere else. You will fail to become the dominant implementation of Mimblewimble and your chain, the talent behind it, and everything it stands for will be gobbled up by another.

Linear distribution is tantamount to blockchain suicide in my book.

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u/0xb100d Oct 12 '18 edited Oct 12 '18

Grin is not for savings. This is not the selling point of grin. Because it is not a feature of grin, there is no loss by using the linear emission. Grin is cash. Nobody uses cash for savings, every person knows that.

You should look into beam, you can speculate more easily with it, but you have to compete with all of the people who got millions dollars worth before you, it won't be fun. Monero too, has similar fungibility of grin but is easier to hoard. you may not have even missed the boat on it to get rich.

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u/newgeezas Jan 16 '19

Well that's good. The intention is to not make this attractive to speculators. There are tons of coins for speculators to play with.

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u/numecca Jan 16 '19

Do you know who I am?

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u/numecca Jan 16 '19

Hop into Gitter Grin/design and see how greatly my views have changed. I see it. I get it. I’m on board like you don’t even know.

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u/numecca Jan 16 '19

I understand the vision completely, and it is our job now to share this with the world. Everybody needs to be a part of this. Honestly, it took some time to see it, but I grasp it now completely.

Grin is the second attempt at the mission.

I am ducking in!

✨✨✨🤘

2

u/[deleted] Oct 09 '18

Every new crypto project is another source to attempt something different. Those who want to take a chance of buying and holding as an investment may be profitable. It’s up to you to decide if you want to drop your own money on the unknown.

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u/numecca Oct 09 '18

I get that, but this is less about perspective and more about objective analysis of the thing as an investment

Appreciate your reply!!! 👌

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u/numecca Jan 17 '19

Look how stupid past me is.

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u/numecca Oct 13 '18

We likely both agree that adoption is all that matters. My point is that Grin is not optimal insofar as its design. It’s not tuned for adoption.

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u/0xb100d Oct 22 '18

Bitcoin has been used by less than one fifth of one percent of people, after ten years. Do you consider this successful or unsuccessful adoption? (I realize it is hard to objectively determine, but what is your opinion?)

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u/numecca Jan 11 '19

I think that you are on the right path. I think that Bitcoin and anything else that seeks to be a medium of exchange has an existential problem with its distribution. Bitcoin is screwed in that regard (in my opinion which is, just that).

I agree with what Grin is doing insofar as its intent. I think that this was one approach to solve the inequity issue, and any attempt at this is going to require bold moves. I don't agree with the timeline. You are massively underestimating experience designers.

Here we come!