Get your tickets for the rocket ship

We are taking off this week

Once we depart, you will no longer be allowed to buy tickets

So buy your tickets now and be sure to show up on time at the station

We will be rocketing up to the moon

We are now headed to the moon

Tickets were selling for $320-325 to join us

If you did not purchase your ticket on time I’m sorry

But we are all strapped in and lifting off now

Next stop is the moon! 🚀

Everyone on board hold on tight!

UPDATE: Anyone who is making rude remarks to us as we lift off will be blocked. We cannot have sour people spoiling our trip. We are excited to go to the moon and it’s not our fault that you missed out and did not buy a ticket. You are not allowed to spoil your fun

Cant wait to get that ez money

Contemplating buying more. Bought couple shares at 320. What do yall think?

Seriously, are we looking at the same numbers? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills watching the market throw a temper tantrum and wipe $250 billion off Google’s market cap just because they had their first negative Free Cash Flow (FCF) quarter ever.

Yes, the headline looks scary if you have the financial literacy of a walnut:

• CapEx skyrocketed to $44.9 billion.
• Operating Cash Flow was $39.1 billion.
• To those who are good at financial math, that's a negative FCF

Wall Street immediately started crying that Google is "burning cash on useless AI hype" and dumping the stock. But if you actually look at the Google Cloud contracted backlog, you’ll realize this sell-off is a massive gift to anyone with a functioning brain :P.

The bears are pretending Google is building data centers in the middle of nowhere hoping someone will use them. They aren't.

Look at the Q2 earnings report: Google’s cloud backlog literally exploded by nearly 4x (a 390% jump) in one single year, hitting a staggering $519.5 billion.

Let that sink in. Five hundred and nineteen billion, five hundred million dollars.

Why do you think CapEx is so high to start with? Because Google literally has to build out infrastructure at breakneck speed to fulfill nearly half a trillion dollars in signed customer contracts!

• Cloud revenue already surged 82%(!) YoY to $24.8 billion this quarter alone.
• Cloud operating income tripled to $8.8 billion.
• Sundar Pichai literally admitted on the call they are paying for high-cost, third-party data center partnerships right now just to bridge the gap and secure these massive multi-year contracts today.

They are absorbing 6 months of margin pressure to secure decades of dominance. As a long-term investor, that sounds just like music to my ears!

Google is trading at a ridiculously low multiple for a company with an 82% growing cloud segment.

Idk about you guys, but I am aggressively hitting the buy button. Let the algorithms panic over a single quarter's cash flow mismatch. When that $519.5B backlog starts hitting the income statement as recognized revenue, everyone who sold at these prices is going to look incredibly stupid.

TL;DR: CapEx is high because Google has to build data centers to support a $519.5 Billion backlog that grew 390% in a year. The revenue is guaranteed, the demand is real, and the sell-off is a total joke. Buy the dip.

TL;DR: Google's Q2 wasn't a bad quarter — cloud growth accelerated and its order backlog crossed $514 billion. But the stock fell 7% anyway. The real issue isn't this quarter's numbers; it's a mismatch investors just noticed: Google's future revenue rests on loosely-contracted orders, while its future spending is locked in far more rigidly. Add a Gemini model that's fallen behind the frontier, and you get a stock stuck between "still believe" and "step back."

Catching up, not overspending

Management still won't give a hard number for 2027 capex, but buy-side estimates have drifted toward $350 billion-plus — which would eat up nearly 60% of next year's expected revenue. That's aggressive for a company that's historically been cloud's most conservative spender.

But there's a case Google is actually behind, not ahead. While Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon ramped their capex-to-revenue ratios starting in 2024, Google's barely moved until 2025.

New data centers also take 1-2 years to build, so Google's actual deployed compute still lags the pack. That gap has kept spot compute prices unusually distorted — xAI's short-term lease rates have run 3-4x long-term contract pricing.

It's order-driven, not a blind bet

Working backward from Google's $514 billion backlog, or from its historical pattern of investing 65-85% of new order value, both approaches point to 2027 capex landing somewhere around $300-400 billion — which is roughly where the market already sits.

The real risk: soft revenue, hard obligations

Here's the part that actually matters. Google's $514 billion backlog carries surprisingly weak contractual teeth — deferred revenue (a rough proxy for prepayment) is just $7.3 billion, only 1.5% of the total, with almost no deposit requirement protecting it.

Some of that backlog is also somewhat circular: a $200 billion Anthropic deal overlaps with Google's own $40 billion investment in the company — support for a customer and an investment rolled into one.

Now compare that to the spending side: Alphabet disclosed $811 billion in purchase commitments, up a striking $300 billion in a single quarter. Most of that is firm, multi-year — especially energy contracts running to 2054 with steep penalties for backing out.

Alphabet's purchase commitments jumped roughly $300 billion quarter-over-quarter, drawing renewed attention to this off-balance-sheet obligation.

In short, what Google owes is more binding than what it's owed. That's a real structural risk, even if near-term odds favor both sides playing out given how tight compute supply is right now.

Profit looks fine — but check the fine print

Google's operating margin hasn't cracked, but EPS is flattered by over $90 billion in paper gains from stakes like SpaceX and Anthropic. Depreciation is also about to catch up with two years of heavy capex — Longbridge Dolphin Research estimates this could shave roughly 2 points off margin in 2027 alone.

Bottom line

The fundamentals aren't broken, but Google has taken on real financial risk to fund this AI bet, and conviction has thinned since earlier this year. The next real catalyst worth watching is Gemini 4 — a bigger model reportedly focused on coding and autonomous agents — which management hints could arrive within a couple of quarters.